$GDX as Gold Proxy

It is often talked about by traders and others on TV that when they think Gold is going to increase, they will tell people to buy $GDX as the way to do it.  The idea being that the gold miners have a lot of leverage to increases in gold prices and hence will outperform gold.  What we are seeing before our eyes is why that doesn’t work.  Regardless of gold increasing in price, the stocks of the gold miners, are just that, STOCKS.  When the market is selling off, they are selling off everything.  Gold actually had a pretty good day today, up about $15, yet $GDX was down.  It gapped up on the open, likely because the gold futures were up nicely, but then $GDX just sold off all day long.

If you overlay the $GDX on top of $GLD (or /GC) you will see a dramatic under performance of the $GDX vs Gold itself.  I looked out over the past 9 months, 1 year and 3 years.

Lesson, if you think Gold is going to go up because of what is happening to the currencies, or you want to use it as protection during the high volatility we are in, buy $GLD (or $IAU) and forget about playing it through the miners.

#contangoetfs

Pre-expiration final trades

BTC $AAPL 100 puts for 2.90. Sold Tuesday as part of a strangle for 2.34, so .56 loss.

BTC $VLO 67 (covered) puts for .57. Sold for .87 avg price. Keeping my short stock position as I think I’ll have better chance to unload next week.

BTC $TZA July 65 calls for 14.00. Sold for 10.40 on Wednesday. Been rolling this one whenever it hits ATM… will sell the roll next week as I expect TZA goes higher.

STO $TZA April 85 for 6.05… adding 1 at each dollar increment: 4.05, 5.05, 6.05

STC $TLT Jan 15th 123 call for 2.75. Bought for 1.42 avg price.

$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to close VXX JAN 15 2016 27.5 Calls @ 0.01 to avoid possible assignment tonight

$TSLA #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$TSLA #ShortPuts – Bought to close 1 TSLA JAN 15 2016 200.0 Put @ 0.01 to avoid possible assignment tonight.
Originally sold at 19.00, so a huge gain.
Patience pays off again.

More pre-expiration maneuvering

Bought to close $CMI Jan 15 85 put @ .55 to avoid assignment. Sold for 1.30 on 9/24/15.

Rolled $AAPL Jan 15 100 put down and out to Feb 19 97.50 for 2.07 credit
Bought to close $AAPL Jan 15 100 put @ 3.00. Sold for 1.50 on 6/29/15
Sold to open $AAPL Feb 19 97.50 put @ 5.07

Rolled $NFLX Jan 113 puts down and out to Feb 19 110 for 3.60 credit
Bought to close $NFLX Jan 15 113 puts @ 9.58. Sold for 3.81 (as a rollout) on 1/8
Sold to open $NFLX Feb 19 110 puts @ 13.18

Rolled $NFLX Jan 120 puts down and out to Feb 12 118 for 1.75 credit
Bought to close $NFLX Jan 15 120 puts @ 16.41. Sold for 8.15 (as a rollout) on 1/8
Sold to open $NFLX Feb 12 118 puts @ 18.16

Final put spread

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 29th 1700/1675 put spreads for 1.25. Sold three call spreads yesterday, and three put spreads today. I can do a whole month’s trading in two days in this market.

UA roll

Rolling today’s 70 put 1 week to avoid assignment with the stock at 68.67. Got 1.10 credit for the roll.

Bought to close $UA Jan 15 70 put @ 1.47. Sold for 1.20 on 11/17/15.
Sold to open $UA Jan 22 70 put @ 2.57.

$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to close VXX JAN 15 2016 29.0 Calls @ 0.01. Probably did not have to cover but not taking any chances in this market environment

$URI #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$URI #ShortPuts – Bought to close 1 URI JAN 15 2016 55.0 Put @ 0.50 to avoid possible assignment tonight.

SVXY roll

Rolling today’s 40 put to avoid assignment with $SVXY at 35.46. Roll executed for 1.20 credit.

Bought to close $SVXY Jan 15 40 put @ 4.50 (sold for 1.50 on 11/12/15)
Sold to open $SVXY Jan 29 40 put @ 5.70

#VXXGame

#vxxxgame

$KATE #ShortPuts – Boughtto close…

$KATE #ShortPuts – Bought to close KATE Jan 15 2016 16.0 Puts @ 0.05 to avoid possible assignment. Sold at 0.55 in October

OMM, SMM, and the Bistro

Just want to publicly thank Jeff for starting this site. I’m getting pretty much all the options type info here that I need. Because of this, I’m going to be able to cancel my OMM membership and make the move to SMM. Can still get Dan’s take on things and maybe pick up a few stock tips without the additional cost of both sites. Thanks again!

UVXY rocket

Getting uglier folks… was trying to exit these earlier with profit, but didn’t fill, and they could get worse. Closing now to avoid assignment. Will look to roll, but will wait for possibly higher prices next week (or today)
BTC $UVXY Jan 15th 50 calls for 2.10. Sold for .55 on Wednesday
also, escaped with this one with tiny profit:
BTC $UVXY Jan 15th 55 calls for .49. Sold for .57 yesterday.

#VXXGame

Iron condors

#SPXcampaign Selling put spreads to offset call spreads sold yesterday.
STO $SPX Jan 22nd 1750/1725 puts spreads for 1.30. These expire next Friday.

WHR puts

Selling some puts to replace an expiring position today.

Sold $WHR Feb 19 110 put @ 1.65
Sold $WHR Jun 17 85 put @ 1.50

$SPY #ironcondor Feb 26 STO…

$SPY #ironcondor Feb 26 STO for 1.30 197/200/177/174 not my original idea

UVXY & SVXY

I’ve gotten some questions about these and the way some of us sell them. I’ll give some answers here, and then I encourage anyone to ask further questions so the group can answer. Also, those experienced with trading these, please add to this post with your comments…

These both are based on $VXX, which is the “VIX Short-Term Futures ETN” that tracks $VIX futures contracts. It is infected by contango under normal market conditions, meaning over the long term it is always headed down (I will cover this phenomenon in next week’s webinar). But during volatile markets, in can have dramatic spikes up.

The $UVXY is an ETF that seeks to return 2x the VXX move on a DAILY basis. Because UVXY is two-times the VXX, the downward pressure over time is greater in UVXY than VXX, but the up spikes can be much larger.

The $SVXY is the 1x inverse of the VXX. The inverse aspect would indicate a general uptrend overtime, however, over the last 16 months, the SVXY has been under performing and can be slow in reaching new highs.

Most traders here predominantly SELL volatility when the VIX and VXX spike higher, and thus profit when volatility settles down. The most common methods are to sell UVXY calls and sell SVXY puts. Some also sell VXX calls, or sell spreads. But most of us sell these naked. All of us have reaped very strong profits from this strategy over the last 4 to 5 years. The difficult part is when we get into a correction and many positions sold on initial vol spikes go underwater. You need to control your position size and roll options when necessary so your account does not blow up during these times. ALSO, you must be leery if we are entering a bear market. None of these products existed in 2008, so no one really knows how they will perform in another financial crash or an extended downtrend. Personally, I have been more cautious lately with these products for this reason.

What works for me best is to sell near term way OTM strikes that are very unlikely to get hit. Last week I was selling UVXY Jan 100 to 125 calls for .30 or so each. As you can see, since then UVXY has only moved from 30 to 50. Also, I sell highest strikes at the furthest expiration dates, like Jan 2017 and 2018. These will return pretty high premium, but will deflate dramatically when volatility relaxes. Many traders will add strikes from all expirations, including weekly, and at multiple strikes.

We also will take assignment of SVXY stock, sometimes UVXY stock, and sell covered calls until stock is called away. Some of us will hold these positions through large drawdowns, knowing the volatility event will eventually end. I do not recommend that unless you have ice in your veins. We also sell naked PUTS in UVXY, especially in times like now when rallies like yesterday are usually followed by more volatility. Check out the long list of expirations that will be posted at the end of the day, and you’ll get an idea of some of the positions that are being traded.

Hope this helps! The traders here are all very helpful and can answer further questions. – Jeff

KOLD rolling

#ContangoETFs – I made the error of getting too bearish on this and I sold Jan calls recently that will now be costly to cover. Fool myself once. I will now stick to only further OTM calls and puts. Not posting specific trades because I’m doing them piecemeal, but today closing Jan 150, 155, 159, and 160 calls. I bought some stock at 166.10 to have called away. Also sold Feb 120 puts for 2.20 and May 270 call for 9.00. Will sell more in coming weeks… right now giving my margin a rest. Still short some deep ITM calls in Feb, and numerous Feb and May calls over 220. #Rolling

BIB stock

Starting a new position in #401k . Holding above yesterday’s low but I’m willing to add lower as a longer term hold. Other than that just sitting and watching!

#VXXGame trades Sold $SVXY Jan…

#VXXGame trades
Sold $SVXY Jan 20 2017 20 put @ 3.00. Lowest strike.
Sold $UVXY Jan 20 2017 170 call @ 15.25. Highest strike.

AAPL strudel

… I mean straddle. Short the 100 straddle today, breakevens at 97.70 and 102.30. We were spot on 100 yesterday, but it didn’t get cheap enough for me to close. It looks like this may hit breakeven, but a move closer to 100 would be nice…… #Pinning does not work so well in these volatile markets.

#VXXgame

STO $UVXY Jan 29th 80 calls for 2.30
STC $VIX Jan 19th 19 call for 7.30. Bought for 2.87 avg price in December. Still holding more.

#VXXGame

(put spread)

The parentheses are my attempt to be quiet about selling a put spread, so maybe the market won’t notice and let this one slip by. But taking an advantage of the extreme move.

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Feb 12th 1650/1625 put spreads for 1.30.

$UVXY

Nibbled a bit at the open.  Will now just sit back and see if we bounce or weaken further.

STO Jun $85 call @ $14.00

STO Jan 29 $85 call @ $2.00

Monday Holiday

Don’t forget U.S. markets are closed Monday, but international markets are OPEN. This could mean anything’s possible for Tuesday’s open. So although it is a shorter week for options expiration, be careful with any positions going into the weekend.

Good morning…

Although I thought we might remain calmer until next week, our trip down to October 2014 lows (1820) is resuming now. I don’t think we can look for any meaningful bounce until at least that level.

#ironbutterfly Here is some info…

#ironbutterfly Here is some info on butterfly and broken wing butterfly options
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2016-01-14/episodes/mike-and-his-white-board-01-14-2016?locale=en-US

$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY…

$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY Feb 19 2016 19 Puts @ 0.34.
Also Sold UVXY JAN 22 2016 85.0 Calls @ 0.79 and UVXY JAN 29 2016 85.0 Calls @ 1.80

$XOM #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$XOM #ShortPuts – Bought to close XOM JAN 15 2016 70.0 Puts @ 0.01. Sold at 1.40 and 1.62

$SPX

Sold to open Jan 29th 2020/2030 BeCS @ 0.80  A small toe in the water position.  My thinking is there will be a lot of resistance over the next two weeks to push this well above the 20dma.

UVXY puts

BTC $UVXY Jan 22nd 22 puts and 22/20 put spreads for .02. Sold for 1.00 and .55 respectively on 12/31.
STO UVXY Feb 5th 27 puts for 1.18
STO UVXY Jan 22nd 30 puts for .52

SPX in rally, but VIX not plummeting and UVXY sideways

on 12/18 STO UVXY 25/20…

on 12/18 STO UVXY 25/20 BuPS for 1.90 closed today for .27. Trying to follow you guys

KOLD snap

Sold Feb 19 270 call @ 2.70. Strike price over 110 points higher than current price and 2 standard deviations away. Not that standard statistical measures and probabilities have as much relevance with reverse leveraged ETFs based on commodity futures but it’s something. The more important factor here is the tracking error headwinds that will keep this ETF down; because of that it likely won’t get back to its December high of 223 even if natural gas gets back down to the corresponding low it reached then.

and another…

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 22nd 1995/2020 call spreads for 1.25. This is the third I’ve sold today. Cutting it a bit close, especially if rally continues into expiration tomorrow. But I believe call spreads are still the safest bet.

$SPY sold Feb. 19 197/204…

$SPY sold Feb. 19 197/204 BeCS @ 1.63

$SPX

Just popping in to say I ain’t dead.  I’ve been sitting on my hands watching, studying and learning.  Being very cautious with a cash position.  Best of luck to all.   Jon

More calls

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Feb 5th 2025/2050 call spreads for 1.45

$TLT Tilting down

STO $TLT Feb 19 126/130 BeCS for 0.80. Has about 70% probability of profit.

Resistance at 1926-30; 1940; 1955-62;…

Resistance at 1926-30; 1940; 1955-62; 1975-77; 2002-05 and finally at 2014.

Reversal

#SPXcampaign Put spread stopped at the bottom again! Always seems to work that way, aye? I mentioned this the other day, but 22 of the 25 biggest rally (up) days in the Dow have been during corrections, with Dow beneath its 200 dma. Huge rallies now are a good chance to short the market. I’m looking for the high today to sell more call spreads and UVXY puts.

ETF Webinar – January 20, 2016

A new webinar next week for what I call #ContangoETFs; the bull and bear 2x and 3x ETFs and ETNs that always head toward zero; how they work, and how to keep an edge in trading them. It will be Wednesday, January 20 at 5pm ET, 2pm PT. Limited spaces available; reply below this post if you’d like to attend.

#Webinars

some trades…

STO $UVXY Jan 15th 55 calls for .60
STO $TZA April 85 call for 5.05, added to the one I sold for 4.05 yesterday
BTC $BOIL Jan 15th 25 calls for .05, for no other reason than I forgot I had a GTC order in. Sold for 1.10 in November

$UVXY

BTC Jan 22 $25 puts @ $0.03, sold for $0.40

Puts stopped

#SPXcampaign Hand slapped again… tried selling my first put spread in a week yesterday, but did it too early and already stopped out. Need to stick with call spreads.
BTC $SPX 1810/1785 put spreads for 2.90. Sold yesterday for 1.25.

TZA calls

Sold $TZA Jan 29 75 call @ 1.30

$SPY #ironbutterfly closed the Feb….

$SPY #ironbutterfly closed the Feb. 19 put iron butterfly I sold on Jan. 8, small gain of .55 per contract

$CMG #ShortPuts – Sold CMG…

$CMG #ShortPuts – Sold CMG Jan 15 2016 400.0 Puts @ 1.05. Offsetting short calls. These expire tomorrow

Call spreads

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 29th 2000/2025 call spreads for 1.35.

Managing options positions through max Payne

I made a presentation last night to a local Options Trading group about #ContangoETFs, and I included the recent $KOLD trade through the swing from 90 to 220, where many of us held ITM naked calls on the whole ride up. I shared @fuzzballl‘s tactics of selling ITM puts, and of selling the long leg of a way-ITM spread while it was riding high. One member said you need to have “ice in your veins” to handle these types of trades without panic.

It is true that the way many of us trade UVXY and other naked options is not for everyone. I stressed last night and I stress again now, you must know the products you’re trading and you MUST control position size so your account can handle worst case scenarios.

For new members or followers to Bistro, be sure to ask any of the traders here any questions about their positions. This is a good group, always willing to offer advice. I learned much of what I do from many of these people, including @optioniceman who first taught me the tricks to selling naked premium.

(And if you want to see some of the KOLD trading, use search box in the right column and enter the term “KOLD”)

$GDX #Divergence

Gold actually had a pretty good day today, but GDX went nowhere.  The over all selling frenzy that took over the market seems to have affected the gold minors as well even though gold was going up.  That sets up for $GDX to possibly make some sort of a catch up move tomorrow.

UVXY June

Sold $UVXY June 17 85 call @ 11.65. 85 is now the highest strike in June as well.

$UVXY

STO Jan 29 $85 Calls @ $1.50

STO Feb 5 $85 Call @ $2.50

STO Feb 19 $85 Call @ $4.00

STO Feb 26 $85 Call @ $5.00

More UVXY

#VXXGame STO $UVXY Jan 2018 85 call for 24.00
STO $UVXY March 18th 165 call for 3.00

Also, STC another $TLT long 123 call (Jan 15th) for 2.50.

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 29th 2060/2085 call spreads for .20. Sold last Friday for 1.50.

This looks like a serious drop.

KOLD follow up

Closed this thing last week. Ended up with an inverted strangle (220put/120call) that had brought in 80 dollars after all the rolls. I could’ve rolled the entire thing out another month for about a 10 dollar credit but decided to close it and take the loss. Luckily one spread but still a loss…bright side is it could’ve been a lot worse due to the extreme margin requirements at TDA and now a ton of buying power released to use elsewhere!

NFLX puts

I have 100 calls for January that I thought for sure I would have to roll. Not so sure about that now. We’ll see. But in the meantime, I’m selling some puts below that level for Friday’s expiration. If these get in trouble I’ll have likely more than offset it by the profit on the calls.

Sold $NFLX Jan 15 97 puts @ .25. Expires Friday.

UVXY call spreads

Just a couple little quickies this morning…these keep working.

Bought to Close UVXY JAN 15 2016 55/70 Bear call spreads @ .14 (sold for 1.04)

Sold UVXY FEB 19 2016 60/70 Bear call spreads @ 1.05
Sold UVXY MAR 18 2016 65/75 Bear call spreads @ 1.10
Sold UVXY JUN 17 2016 70/80 Bear call spreads @ 1.10

TLT long calls, VLO short stock

#LongCalls Scaling out of $TLT Jan 15th 123 calls I bought for 1.42 avg back in Dec. Sold half the position today for 1.45 and 1.75. Also holding Feb 19th 123 calls which I will hold since I have more time.

#ShortStock Bought to cover a portion of my short $VLO stock position at 64.50, assigned at 65, cost basis currently 68.00. I have several short puts at 67.00, now one of them naked, but I trust we’ll be back up there soon.

TZA rolling

#ContangoETFs #Rolling one position and opening another one. The April positions started as Jan 50’s, then rolled to April 60’s, now rolled to July 65’s. I can do this all year (at least until I run out of expiries).

BTC $TZA April 60 calls for 9.00 (sold for 5.85 last Thursday)
STO $TZA July 65 calls for 10.40

STO $TZA April 85 call for 4.05 (order in to sell another at 5.05)

SPX long spread closed

#SPXcampaign STC $SPX Jan 22nd 1800/1775 put spreads for 1.20. Bought last Friday for 1.10.

SPX put spread

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 22nd 1810/1785 put spreads for 1.25

This spread is higher than the 1800/1775 I bought last week for 1.10. I will be closing that purchased spread today, as the window for profit is closing… I believe I can get out for at least breakeven today… I sold one of them for a double on Monday; now I can see that was my best chance to close all!

What Ramie said

#VXXGame
STO $UVXY Jan 15th 50 calls for .55
STO $UVXY Feb 26th 85 calls for 3.00

Another 1% down move in SPX but $VIX is barely budging.

Adding $UVXY calls

Thanks to vxxkelly for the heads up on the new strikes. I added a contract at the top of each week for Feb. Some of these were earlier fills so the premium is even higher now.

Sold $UVXY Feb 5 85 call @ 1.25
Sold $UVXY Feb 12 85 call @ 1.65
Sold $UVXY Feb 19 85 call @ 2.15
Sold $UVXY Feb 26 85 call @ 2.50

#VXXGame

$UVXY

STO 3 Jan 22 $70 calls @ $0.40

 

Threading the needle

#ContangoETFs STO $KOLD Jan 15th 130 puts for 1.40.

KOLD between 130 and 150 is my sweet spot for January expiration… and then plummet below 100 for February expiry. Is that too much to ask?

$SPY sold #ironcondor Feb. 19…

$SPY sold #ironcondor Feb. 19 178/173/201/206 for 1.42

Indexes rolling over, TLT spiking…

Indexes rolling over, TLT spiking up

SPX call spread

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Feb 12th 2070/2095 call spreads for 1.20.

$UVXY new strikes

Jan 22, 29  Feb 5, 12, 19, 26

All show new higher strikes up to $85

#ThinkorSwim Platform Issue

Must be some sort of problem with Think or Swim.  It shows the market went up today.  Must be getting bad quotes.

🙂

$CMG – sold some of…

$CMG – sold some of the stock I was put on Friday at 420.07 this morning. Made a bit of money on a two day trade. Based on what it has done since then, I should have sold it all.

#OffTopic – just arrived to a rainy day in the Keys, but missed the snowstorm at home.

$AAPL Filled on Jeff’s #ironbutterfly…

$AAPL Filled on Jeff’s #ironbutterfly idea @1.42, sold a Jan. 15 100/98 BuPS and a 100/102 BuCS

More profit-taking

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Feb 5th 20175/2100 call spreads for .40. Sold for 1.40 last Friday.

KMI roll

On 12/9 I sold some puts on the thesis that, with the dividend cut behind the stock, that 15 could have been the bottom. Clearly I was wrong on that so I’m rolling this position out for more duration and additional premium.

Rolled $KMI Jan 15 15 puts out to Feb 19 15 puts @ .45 credit

#Market

Looks like yet another failing rally.  Just can’t hold any gains for long.  Oil rolls over and the market is right behind it.