The fear trade…. time to roll?

Back on October 13th I suggested an in-the-money put spread that some of you followed (original post here: https://optionsbistro.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/overcoming-fear/).

The trade was the Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00, when SPX was at 2123. Since that day, SPX got to a low of 2083 and a high of 2184 (today). So it is not ITM at the moment. This makes the decision on whether to roll a bit tough. With the current bullish trend, it is likely to expire worthless. But if we breakdown and go below 2175 again, the value of the spread will shoot up quickly against you.

So today you have three options:
1. Close the trade and take a nice profit.
2. Roll the trade into the following week for even or slight credit. You will be able to move your strikes 10 points lower, to the Dec 2nd 2165/2140 spread. This is basically what we’d be doing if we were still ITM (although not as easily). You can also choose to roll it to a further week at lower strikes.
3. Stick with the trade for more upside and a cheaper exit next week, or expire worthless.

I will probably be taking option 3, but watching closely through tomorrow. If this breakout fails, I will probably be rolling it before the weekend.

Questions welcome, and let us know what you do with the trade! #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling