Looks like we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Incredible spike down and still going down. Gold up.
Tomorrow will be the proverbial interesting times.
Took off part my /ES downside hedge yesterday (short future/short put) leaving me with a short Dec 2140 call sold for 21.50. Just for fun I’m shorting a Dec VIX future against this position. One side has to do ok on a big move either way…or…best case scenario is a volatility collapse with no associated market movement.
Can’t resist…gotta do something for the big event this evening. BTW…tastytrade doing a special this evening at 6pm central as first polls close.
My roll of the dice for tomorrow Followed at TT Nov. 11 206.50/214/214.221.50 for 3.78 and bought a Nov. 18 214.50 call. Last week I bought an SPX Nov. 9 1950/1900 armageddon put spread for .80.
#SPXcampaign I included positions traded today as well. I have not yet connected all the rolls with arrows.
This is my third day straight of closing spreads close to expiry at the worst price of the day. It is quite frustrating, but part of trading. It means I will have to sell more roll-spreads to make up for the huge premium I paid to exit.
I have closed my Nov 9th 2150/2175, but will be leaving on the Nov 9th 2165/2180. One reason is that it is only a 15-point spread, which will mean even if it’s fully ITM it will be easy to roll to my usual 25-point width.
If Trump somehow pulls it out, OR if it is too close to call, we’ll go down… question is, how far and how fast? I want to be clear that I’m not commenting on my political leanings. It is just that the markets have made it clear: a Hillary win is bullish, Trump is bearish. And it seems very likely Clinton will win. If she does, I believe we will rally but I will be looking to fade it. If VIX drops below 13.59 (from the #VIXIndicator), I will look to be bullish.
$SVXY – noting a change in aggressiveness of the calls buyers. The stock just rebounded back over 74 but while the quote on the Nov 11 78.0 calls was 2.00/2.30 earlier, it is now 1.65/2.20.
As for the potential election move, I think a Clinton win is already baked into the market after yesterday’s big move and this morning’s follow thru rally.
I am positioned with giant SVXY strangles for this week. The closest short Puts are at 59.0 and the closest short calls are at 76.0. Of course I picked up a major new long stock position last Friday at 65 so the call side is not an issue for me.
Unless the market gets frisky late today I’m probably done trading until after the election results are in.
$MYL #CoveredCalls – with the stock moving up today –
Sold MYL Nov 11 2016 40.0 Calls @ 0.39
Sold MYL Nov 26 2016 42.5 Calls @ 0.25