Upside Warning Fired today

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning fired today with the third consecutive day below the 78.6% Fib retracement. This means higher index prices are very likely in the coming days or weeks. Below is the VIX chart for the mini-correction we just completed, and today’s warning. Below that is data from last summer on the Upside Warning. I will be updating this soon.

Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 1.33.52 PM
ARROWS: Yellow=1st downside signal; Green=reset 50% warning level; Red=Downside Warning; Pink=Cancel Downside Warning; Cyan=Upside Warning

Upside Warning Data as of last summer:

1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.

In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.

Opting Out of Op Ex this week…

…going to LAS for a little fun and sun, still raining in PDX, while there taking time to check off another Bucket List item. Always wanted to drive a NASCAR, so Friday about market close I’ll be rocketing around Las Vegas Speedway @ 160 mph with Drive Petty team, if all goes well, I’ll post GoPro dash cam on You Tube.
Trade safely and have a great weekend!

$SPX “reversal doji?”

The SPX closed negative on a long legged doji at the top of the move; this normally indicates indecision and may even be a sign of reversal….

PG

STO January 2018, 80 puts @2.03

$MYL #CoveredCalls – Sold MYL…

$MYL #CoveredCalls – Sold MYL OCT 20 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.65

CHRW

STO January 62.5 puts @1.50

$DUST #ShortCalls #OptionLadder – sold…

$DUST #ShortCalls #OptionLadder – sold a bunch of calls on the run above 34
Sold DUST May 19 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.70
Sold DUST Jun 2 2017 49.0 Calls @ 0.85 – Highest strike
Sold DUST Jun 16 2017 51.0 Calls @ 1.25

DUST rolls

#ContangoETFs #StrangleRoll In the DUST game again after a long absence!

Bought to close $DUST May 19th 35 calls for 2.80. Sold for 1.40 on Apr 19th.
Rolled into a strangle: Sold June 16th 24/47 strangles for 2.85.

Now that DUST in plummeting, I clearly rolled this too early.

Also, sold to open DUST Jan 19th 2018 85 call for 4.00.

Tax Cut Being Explained…watch your…

Tax Cut Being Explained…watch your indices!?

Edit: Hmm…already priced in?

DUST calls

Sold $DUST May 19 45 calls @ .65. Idea from @optioniceman from yesterday.

WYNN again

#ShortStrangles – WYNN did it to me again….same as last quarter. Changed earnings dates the weekend before the announcement. Had rolled my strangle into what was supposed to be the week before earnings. Plan was to then have a nice adjusting roll into earnings week. Turned out to be the week of earnings so IV exploded along with a huge move so adjusting again. Kind of a pain but has been a nice cash generator last few months.

Bought to Close WYNN APR 28 2017 120.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 2.17)

Rolled WYNN 105 calls to May monthly 130/110 inverted @ 1.12 credit.

CMG

#ShortStrangles – Having to take care of some of these earlier than I would like but I’ll be out the rest of the week except for maybe a few last minute rolls from the phone (in between golf shots 🙂 )

Bought to Close CMG APR 28 2017 480.0 Put @ 6.10 (sold for 15.00 after multiple roll-ups)

Replacing that with:

Sold CMG MAY 19 2017 470.0 Put @ 7.01

Selling against a Jun 450 short call…

SPX reverse roll

#SPXcampaign Stop hit on a call spread so I reversed it, shorter term.

Bought to close $SPX May 12th 2420/2445 call spread for 4.00. Sold for 1.65 last Friday.
Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 2375/2350 put spreads for 4.15.

I had many trades yesterday I didn’t have time to post due to travels. I hope to have the chart revised today or tomorrow but let me know if there are questions on any positions.

#vixindicator

Earnings for today

#Earnings Sold a strangle on FFIV and puts on DPZ (both posted below). I’m trying for three others that probably won’t fill… no plans to adjust so if they don’t fill, no trade:
$PYPL Apr 28th 44.5/43.5 put spread for .50
$ALXN Apr 28th 112/133 strangle for 1.00
$EQIX May 19th 380 puts for 2.75

Anyone trying for other symbols?

DPZ earnings

#Earnings #ShortPuts Sold to Open $DPZ May 19th 165 puts for 1.10. A strong performer on earnings and overall. Willing to go with 23 days until expiration. May try to sell 210 calls if it rallies into the close.

On last 12 reports, its move after 21 days: Biggest UP move: 15.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.5%, Average move: 6.7%. This trade is -8.7% OTM.

UVXY

STO January 2018 60 calls @1.55 on 2 contracts. My first trade in this expiration.

Earnings updates

#Earnings from yesterday

Bought to close $CMG Apr 28th 430 calls for .05. Order in to close 520 calls for same. Strangle sold yesterday for 2.50.

$PEP, needs to rise closer to 115 by weeks end. Has a good shot. Sold 112/115/118 IB for 1.85.

$ANTM, needs to fall toward 170 by week’s end. Less likely to work than PEP; should have leaned bullish on this one, and as you can see from yesterday’s post, I realized it right after my trade executed! Sold 165/170/175 IB for 3.50.

FFIV earnings

#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Sold to Open $FFIV 126/150 strangles for 1.00. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.0%, Average move: 5.1%. These strikes are each 8.7% OTM.

$UVXY

Have a number of orders in to close positions.

BTC May 5 $39 calls @ $.02, sold for $.50

SPX risk/reversal

#SPXcampaign An Upside Warning is going to fire today, barring any intraday market shock, so I’m going long call spreads on SPX. My favorite way to do this is to sell an equal-priced put spread so the cost of the purchased call spread is zero… unless, of course, I’m completely wrong and the market tanks. But that’s quite unlikely in the near term. If the long call spread fails, the put spread will likely expire worthless and net cost is zero in the end.

Bought to Open $SPX May 5th 2415/2435 call spreads for 2.20.
Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 2365/2340 put spreads for 2.40.

If we don’t get a strong up move by the end of this week, I will be doing this again with further dated expiration.

IRBT

BTC June 46 puts @ .05 cents. Sold @1.35 so not much more to be made on this one. Closed 7 weeks early so happy to free up capital.

Efficiency of capital

I did a mini study last year that was an extension of some of the tastytrade strangle work. I was trying to figure out what was the most efficient use of capital on both a percentage basis and ROC. I only did it with a few tickers and specifically was looking at use of margin and buying power reduction selling various options. I looked at uso, spy, dia, qqq, gld, and iwm against the futures or the index. It was fairly extensive so to keep it simple will just show /es/spy/spx. Here is the quick summary and it was true for the others with the exception of qqq, the futures options were not liquid enough in that.

Selling delta 8 options 45 DTE. Keep in mind spy was under 200 and the vix was around 14-15 so the #s are different today.
I looked at how much money it would require to actually cover the position or at least avoid a margin call.
SPY needs about $6000 per contract to cover a large move without a margin call
SPX needs about $40,000 per contract to cover
/ES needs about $6000 per contract to cover
What this means. From a percentage standpoint SPY actually wins but from a ROC /ES is the more efficient product because you are selling higher premiums. From a strangle standpoint SPX is the worst and tastytrade also did a study that found spy is more efficient than spx because of the tighter bid/ask spreads. However, there is a tax advantage and volume advantage to spx or /es.

What I take from this is if you have a smaller account stick with spy, medium account move up to /es and if you have a private jet trade spx or /es.
For those that do not know the ratio 10 SPY = 1 SPX = 2 /ES contracts.

Interestingly the most efficient market from a percentage basis was /CL oil futures requiring only about $4000 per contract. Just watch the leverage on any of them, that is the only thing that has ever cost me on trades gone bad. Now I always keep enough cash to cover the position in a black swan event.

Hope that helps, cheers, Chris

Earnings before Open

Anthem (ANTM) – consensus EPS $3.80
BCE, Inc. (BCE) – consensus EPS $0.62
Baxter (BAX) – consensus EPS $0.52
Boeing (BA) – consensus EPS $1.93
DTE Energy (DTE) – consensus EPS $1.55
Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) – consensus EPS $0.96
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) – consensus EPS $0.45
General Dynamics (GD) – consensus EPS $2.32
Hershey Foods (HSY) – consensus EPS $1.25
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) – consensus EPS $0.53
NASDAQ (NDAQ) – consensus EPS $1.06
Norfolk Southern (NSC) – consensus EPS $1.35
Northrop Grumman (NOC) – consensus EPS $2.92
Oshkosh Corp. (OSK) – consensus EPS $0.75
Owens Corning (OC) – consensus EPS $0.59
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) – consensus EPS $0.96
Pepsi (PEP) – consensus EPS $0.91
Procter & Gamble (PG) – consensus EPS $0.94
Seagate Technology (STX) – consensus EPS $1.07
State Street (STT) – consensus EPS $1.10
Twitter (TWTR) – consensus EPS $0.01
United Technologies (UTX) – consensus EPS $1.40
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) – consensus EPS $1.11

Earnings After Markets Close
Axis Capital (AXS) – consensus EPS $1.00
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) – consensus EPS $1.69
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) – consensus EPS $0.74
F5 Networks (FFIV) – consensus EPS $1.97
FMC Technologies (FTI) – consensus EPS N/A
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – consensus EPS $0.61
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) – consensus EPS $2.89
Packaging Corp. (PKG) – consensus EPS $1.25
PayPal (PYPL) – consensus EPS $0.41
Suncor Energy (SU) – consensus EPS $0.24
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) – consensus EPS -$0.20
XL Group (XL) – consensus EPS $0.44