walter6871 4:10 am on Monday, September 18, 2017
Tags: spxexpectedmove ( 9 )

#spxexpectedmove

walter6871 4:18 am on Monday, September 18, 2017

it got outside the box last week and stayed there!
Looks to be a narrower range this week.
rck89 6:00 am on Monday, September 18, 2017

Let’s see if I got this right….$2518 is your expected resistance? This week or what timeframe? Thanks
- walter6871 6:19 am on Monday, September 18, 2017
  
  this Friday and support is 2432
  - Jeff 6:32 am on Monday, September 18, 2017
    
    What source do you use for your levels?
    - walter6871 6:35 am on Monday, September 18, 2017
      
      tos pre market on spx looking at options expiring this Friday. It gives expected moves for every time period on right.
      can send screen shot……
      Like i said if i was a smart man i would sell condors for Friday expiration and ajust if needed.
      - Jeff 7:10 am on Monday, September 18, 2017
        
        Yes, I just wanted to make sure other users understand that you’re pulling these levels from a source. I think it would be good to share the screen shot from TOS so everyone knows where to find the info. Thanks!
walter6871 7:51 am on Monday, September 18, 2017

ok ..right hand side 7.56% is implied vol for week,+-17.64 is range of spx for week ending sep 22.
this has changed since opening.
so plus or minus the current spx price will give you expected week range.
that why i check and make chart before opening.

hope this helps if not ask.
…………………………..
when choosing my spreads 30 dte and deciding to use 30 or 33 dte I look for one with highest implied vol. and add or subtract expected move from current price to see how close, plus look at delta (around 88%).
hcgdavis 10:15 am on Monday, September 18, 2017

I think tastytrade did a study a few years back that showed when the VIX was low, under 12 the SPX/SPY tends to move more than expected move, last 9 years seems to be only to the upside.

The lack of volatility and a 2 sided market is frustrating but is likely to stay this way until the fed starts raising rates or inflation takes enough of a bite out of GDP to slow earnings.