October Surprise

#SyntheticShort – Just throwing this out there…

Whiz, FWIW, is really getting concerned about the market going into October. I understand he’s always trying to act like a big shot know it all guy but supposedly his connections he still has in the Navy from his Top Gun days are getting worried. He says…”something is coming” and it’s gonna be bad. Obviously he says he may be wrong but who knows.

He’s throwing around all sorts of hedge ideas but most have about 5k risk for limited protection (unless outright buying of puts). I threw this idea out there to him and waiting for a response. How’s this look for a hedge that will work all the way to zero for limited risk? It’s similar to just buying the puts but with little to nothing out of pocket up front.

How about synthetic short Nov SPX at 2500 (sell call and buy put). Then buy a protective call at 2550 in case we get a rip your face off rally. Net cost out of pocket of about a buck. This hedge should make money all the way to SPX zero with max loss capped at 2550 to the upside. What am I missing? Still risking the usual 5 grand but with unlimited protection to the downside. Sort of a reverse long call diagonal but on a much shorter time frame…

$TAP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – A…

$TAP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – A couple of small speculative trades in an IRA that is almost 100% in cash.
Sold 1 TAP Oct 13 2017 78.0 Put @ 0.35
Sold 1 TAP Oct 20 2017 78.0 Put @ 0.50.
The stock is above 81 and earnings are not until Nov 1.

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to close 1 UVXY Jan 19 2018 65.0 Call @ 2.23.
I still have a couple more to cover plus I’m short 82 and 91 calls as well.
Originally sold on 08/10/17 @ 11.20

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to close 1 UVXY Dec 15 2017 65.0 Call @ 1.49.
I still have more to cover but I see no need to rush.
Originally sold on 8/9/17 @ 7.00

$GWW #ShortCalls – Sold 1…

$GWW #ShortCalls – Sold 1 GWW Apr 20 2018 230.0 Call @ 1.95.
Paired with short puts sold on the last major dip.

$FOSL #CoveredCalls – Sold FOSL…

$FOSL #CoveredCalls – Sold FOSL Mar 16 2018 15.0 Calls @ 0.50 with the stock at 9.72

$TAP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – I’m…

$TAP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – I’m guessing beer sales are off with fewer fans watching the NFL. NOT!!
Sold TAP Nov 17 2017 77.5 Puts @ 1.30
Sold TAP Apr 20 2018 70.0 Puts @ 1.65

$ZGNX #ShortPuts – Sold ZGNX…

$ZGNX #ShortPuts – Sold ZGNX OCT 20 2017 2.0 Puts @ 0.40 on the opening this morning.

$AAOI #ShortPuts After some consideration…

$AAOI #ShortPuts After some consideration I decided to sell to open Oct 06th 60 Puts @ 1.20 when $AAOI was at 64.34. Short leash. Short time frames. Small position. No assignment.

$SPX #spxcampaign Bought to closed…

$SPX #spxcampaign Bought to closed my Oct 06th 2420/2400 BuPS @ 0.35. Originally sold for 0.90 as part of a class IC.

Reducing some NUGT exposure

Taking positions off for most of the profit to trim back size in this ticker.
Bought to close:
$NUGT Oct 20 50 calls @ .07. Sold for 1.30 on 8/28
$NUGT Nov 17 60 calls @ .15. Sold for 1.30, 1.45 and 1.75 from 8/31 – 9/5
$NUGT Nov 17 63 calls @ .12. Sold for 1.55 on 9/7

TSLA

#ShortStrangles – Another small adjustment…

Rolled TSLA OCT 20 2017 365.0 Call to OCT 20 2017 355.0 Call @ 2.32 credit

Currently sitting at Oct 20th 345/355 @ 11.37 credit

WDC

#ShortStrangles – Starter position just prior to earnings…

Sold WDC OCT 20 2017 80.0/92.5 Strangles @ 1.22

SJM

STO January 19, 2018 95 puts @1.10 with the stock at105.91

XBI rolled 15 DTE 79…

XBI rolled 15 DTE 79 put to 43 DTE 80 put for 0.81 credit to keep the ladder rolling 4 weeks at a time.

Now I have the day off, maria passed through, we have sun and wind and 2 other friends have the day off so going kiteboarding!

I rolled most of my trades yesterday so unless something really good comes along I am done trading for the week. Hope everyone has a good expiration tomorrow.

Cheers

Good morning