Markets – prepare for the end of the Bear market rally

Stocks Scream To “Most Expensive Ever” In Greatest Month Since ’87
2020-04-30_9-24-46

#bullputspreads TSLA Playing a bounce…

#bullcallspreads TSLA

Playing a bounce back bought a May 15, 775/780 call spread for 2.45 as I hope it continues down

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL Sold May…

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL

Sold May 15, 260/265/315/320 for 1.19

#earnings #closing TSLA Closed May…

#earnings #closing TSLA

Closed May 8, 740/775/775/780 put butterfly for 10.46, sold yesterday for 14.21

AAPL Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out to the monthlies just above the 200ma.

Sold AAPL MAY 15 2020 265.0 Put @ 2.25

VXX – Covered put rolldown

Bought to close VXX 05/01/2020 35.50 Puts @ 0.09.
Sold them on 04/27 @ 0.12 and 0.31
Replaced them with short VXX 05/08/2020 34.00 Puts @ 0.45.

My long VXX Puts are out in Jan 2021 and are 25% fully paid for after about 10 days.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 1st 2800/2820-2990/3010 condors for 1.30. IV 25.6%, SPX 2906, deltas -.07, +.04

Expiring: Apr 30th 2830/2850-3015/3035 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.

AMZN put spread

#Earnings
Sold to Open $AMZN May 1st 2325/2320 put spreads for 1.50. With stock at 2430, that’s 4.3% OTM.

New CC on BCRX May 15 $4.00 net $3.26, stock @$3.84

#coveredcall #BCRX

TQQQ

#ShortPuts – Sold TQQQ MAY 15 2020 60.0 Put @ 2.47

WFC

for what it’s worth, 4 directors of WFC bought stock on 4/28.
I guess they wanted to get in at prices not seen since 2012.
Div yield is 6.8% and it goes X-div on 5/7
wfc

#earnings UAL Sold May 15,…

#earnings UAL

Sold May 15, 23.50/37 strangle for 1.00

#earnings #closing TSLA Sold May…

#earnings #closing TSLA

Sold May 15, 750/800 #bullcallspreads for 29.94, bought Tuesday for 23. Woulda coulda shoulda, decided to take the profit, 2 trades left.

ZM

BTO May 15 136/139 Calls $1.45
ZOOM #In-Out

CC on ET, Roll from $7.5 to $8 to $8.5 to $9 in 4 days! $.305 Div payable 05/05

CINF

Sold 1 May 15 2020 65.00 Put @ 1.70 with the stock at 67.10.

52-week low: 65.69
52-week high: 118.19

PNC Rollup

Bought to close 1 PNC 05/01/2020 98.0 Covered Call / Sold 1 PNC 05/08/2020 99.0 Covered Call @ 0.05 Credit.
With the stock at 106 I’ll risk holding on one more week for an extra $100.

Fitch Affirms PNC Financial at ‘A+/F1’; Outlook Stable Despite Coronavirus Impact

SVXY Long Call

On 4/21 I bought 1 SVXY Jan 15 2021 35.0 Call @ 3.00.
Sold it today @ 4.30.
I’ll take the quick 43% gain and wait for this rally to evaporate before trying this again.

My first (and only) profit in SVXY since Feb 2018

#shortputs FEYE Sold May 15,…

#shortputs FEYE VFC

FEYE Sold May 15, 11 put for .39
VFC Sold May 15, 50 put for .80. Earnings May 15

#closing #bullcallspreads TSLA Sold May…

#closing #bullcallspreads TSLA

Sold May 1, 720/730 call spread for 9.92, bought April 14 for 4.47

ZM

Rolled $ZM 130/140 May-1-2020 #BuPS // May-08-2020 @0.70 Credit.

I probably should have closed it out yesterday with a small loss.

TQQQ

#CoveredCalls – Another roll…

Rolled TQQQ MAY 08 2020 52.0 Call to JUN 19 2020 56.0 Call @ .10 debit (1.40 premium received now)

TSLA

#CoveredCalls – Using call premium received to finance the roll. I can do it about 7 more times assuming no pullback in the stock. Picking up 7.00 of upside…

Rolled TSLA MAY 01 2020 500.0 Call to JUN 19 2020 510.0 Call @ 3.00 debit (total premium now 22.00)

New 100 CC SDC May 8 $7 for net $6.50, Stock was at $7.04

#coveredcalls #SDC

TQQQ

STO May 22, 50 puts at 1.25, This is a small position and will add at lower strike prices if we get another down move. The volatility and premiums are high.

CINF Covered Call

Bought 100 Shares of CINF / Sold 1 CINF 05/15/2020 65.0 Covered Call @ Net Debit of $63.80
Filled at $67.68 on the stock.

ADS

Got a strange assignment overnight. Sold 100 of my 300 ADS shares when my 05/01/2020 45.0 Covered call was assigned. Interestingly I was not assigned on the strike 41.0 call expiring tomorrow.

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias 2.04%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 292.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.77 to 305.23 (+/- 4.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 281.04 to 303.96
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 272.52 to 312.48
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 273.11

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%

Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias 1.04%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 2430.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 2276.91 to 2583.09 (+/- 6.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 2330.53 to 2529.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2109.00 to 2751.00
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2240.22

Open to requests for other symbols.

GUSH

On 3/10 I bought 200 GUSH just under 1.00 and sold 2 March GUSH Covered Calls for $60 in total premium for a 30% reduction in breakeven.
After the reverse split I’ve now dumped my (5) GUSH shares @ $42.20 and added a bit more to the profit.
Glad to be out 🙂

TSLA Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Bought to Close TSLA MAY 15 2020 525.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 3.40)

FB Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Beer money…

Bought to Close FB MAY 1 2020 185.0/200.0/202.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.02 (sold for 3.05)

SPX 7-dte closed

#SPX7dteLong Yesterday an hour before market close,
Sold to close $SPX May 1st 2840/2860 call spreads for 18.40.
This morning, half hour before the open,
Sold to close May 1st 2830/2810 put spreads for 1.20.

Condors bought last Friday for 18.05, sold this week for 19.60.

Assigned on 87 of 100 SDC $5.50 Calls. 15% in 35 days.

Would have preferred to roll out and up later in the week…but happy with the profitability of the trade. Probably replace the shares today and sell May 8 $6.50.

The #coveredcalls #SDC

TSLA Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Hesitated posting this because it could be crazy. I’ve got a DITM covered call in this thing that’s going to need a pullback to help with the roll. What’s a great way to get a pullback? Add a (sort of) long position… 🙂 Closed a bunch of SPY this week so have some spare buying power but this does get me overweight in this ticker.

Going out to May monthly selling twice the expected move and down where my covered call got run over…

Sold TSLA MAY 15 2020 525.0 Put @ 3.40

GUSH

sold 2 for $40.00 still holding 2

What a move

SPX 7-dte long

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 6th 2920/2940-2950/2960 condors for 17.60. (SPX at 2945)

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 2830/2850-3015/3035 condors for 1.00, IV 23.5%, SPX 2842, deltas -.05, +.05.

CCL Put / SPY Close Put

#shortputs
$CCL STO 5/1 15.50 put at .40
$CCL STO 5/15 16 put at 1.35
$SPY BTC 5/1 267.50 put at .04. STO 4/24 at 1.90 @fuzzballl rocks

ZM – News

Know a couple people had some ZM holdings.

Headline pretty much says it all:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/zoom-shares-fall-6-percent-as-google-makes-videoconferencing-free-for-up-to-100-people

Am sitting on a May-01-2020 130/140 #BuPS, which is down 40c from where I sold it. Debating closing or rolling. Have a feeling its going to be a nail-biter for this week.

FB Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Throwing a lizard out there for fun.

Sold FB MAY 1 2020 185.0/200.0/202.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.05

SPX calls stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 29th 2960/2980 call spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.

JPM

#ShortPuts – Booking a couple weeks early…

Bought to Close JPM MAY 8 2020 85.0 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.20)

Closing TQQQ for an overall profit

Bought to close $TQQQ 5/15 65 puts @ 3.60
Original sale: 4/17 65 puts for 2.40 on 2/25
Rolled out to 5/15 65 puts for 1.70 credit on 3/31
Overall profit per contract: .50
Feeling lucky to get out for a profit considering how deep in the money these were in March.

SPY

Sold my highest cost lots of SPY @ 291.59 on the open and @ 294.09 just now.
The average cost for my remaining position is 246.13.

DXCM Covered Call Roll Up

Rolled 30 May 15 $290 Calls, 10 to $310, 10 to $320, 10 to $330

Stock fell $20 yesterday going into earnings. Positive call, great numbers in Q1. Stock up $28 to $341. Still conservative on the calls but more upside than sitting at $290.

#coveredcalls #DXCM

HTZ

HTZ

Hertz Bankruptcy Imminent After Massive Layoffs, Missed Lease Payment.
If a sufficient amount of creditors don’t agree to waive any default by the end of the grace period, “Hertz could be materially and negatively impacted” the company said.

TSLA put spread

#Earnings Sold to Open $TSLA May 1st 720/715 put spreads for 1.25, when stock is at 787.00. -8.5% OTM. Frankly, I’m too nervous to sell the call side. In October, it was up 17.7% after one day, but 28.8% after 3 days.

AMD

am sitting on my Dbl Cal @56 watching have a good chance for a nice profit!!

GUSH – WOW

Bought it before the down turn was deep in the hole now it is profitable?????????????

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%

Avg (+ or -) 8.68%
Bias 1.28%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 792.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 705.26 to 878.74 (+/- 11.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 723.27 to 860.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 652.13 to 931.87
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 684.21

Open to requests for other symbols.

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%

Avg (+ or -) 5.60%
Bias 0.65%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 194.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.69 to 206.31 (+/- 6.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.13 to 204.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 157.22 to 230.78
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 214.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

Final tiny trades

Sold OXY 05/01/2020 17.50 Covered Calls @ 0.08
Sold AAL 05/01/2020 15.00 Covered Calls @ 0.06.
Sometimes you just have to take what the market will give you.
I would likely accept assignment and these strikes.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 29th 2765/2785-2960/2980 condors for 1.10, IV 25%, SPX 2882, deltas -.05, +.05.

Extra expiration on Thursday (end-of-month) so this starts four straight days of 1-dte.

TSLA trades

TSLA has earnings after the market closes tomorrow. I’ll be driving all day tomorrow. Given my ugly inverted June 19, 325/450 strangle I’ve decided to be a little more aggressive against a run up from earnings.
I currently have a
May 1, 720/730 long call spread, I’m up about $300 on it
Today sold a May 8, 740/775/775/780 put butterfly for 14.21
Bought a May 15, 750/800 long call spread for 23.00
Bought a June 19, 900/910 long call spread for 2.48.
I’ll still take a 300 point drop.

SPX 7-dte closed

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 29th 2810/2830 call spreads for 18.00, filled overnight (forgot order was in, otherwise would have increased bid)
Just now, sold to close Apr 29th 2800/2780 put spread for 1.15.

Condors sold for 18.35 last Wednesday, sold for 19.15 today.

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 28, 2020 AC -5.97%
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +0.30%
July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44%
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%
May 1, 2017 AC -24.22% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 10.98%
Bias -1.05%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.97 to 61.03 (+/- 9.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 49.85 to 62.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 42.44 to 69.56
Based on UP max only (+19.9%): 67.17

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPY

#ShortPuts – Going out a little further to sell below the 20 and 50 day moving averages…

Sold SPY MAY 08 2020 270.0 Puts @ 1.75

Added one in a different account…

Sold SPY MAY 15 2020 265.0 Put @ 2.30

CINF – post earnings

Bought to open 100 CINF / Sold 1 CINF 05/15/2020 70.0 Covered Call @ 67.95 Net Debit
Sold 1 CINF 05/15/2020 70.0 Put @ 2.05

These are equivalent trades and I was going to take whichever order filled first, but I got them both.

The stock is 72.52, down over 9.5 points today after rallying from 78 to 82 pre earnings (WTF were they thinking?)

SDC Call Diagonal Roll May 1 $5.50 to May 8 $6.50 net $.60 stock at $6.76

#coveredcall #roll

LVS

STC May 8 44/46 call spread $1.60 Bought 4-23 $1.01
#In-Out

SLB

Sold SLB 05/01/2020 17.50 Covered Calls @ 0.12 with the stock at 16.39

CCL Puts

#shortputs
$CCL STO 5/1 14 puts at .50

More tiny trades

Sold the rest of my AA 05/01/2020 8.00 Covered Calls @ 0.10. Stock at 7.60
Sold CCL 05/01/2020 15.50 Covered Call @ 0.15. (you could do better now) Stock at 14.09

SPY ZM

#ShortPuts – Cleaning up some scraps…

Bought to Close SPY APR 29 20 272.0 Put @ .09 filled late yesterday (sold for 2.05)
Bought to Close SPY MAY 01 2020 267.5 Puts @ .09 (sold for 2.11)

Bought to Close ZM MAY 01 2020 120.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 1.30)

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 3, 2020 AC -2.50%
Oct. 28, 2019 AC -2.19%
July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%

Avg (+ or -) 4.11%
Bias -0.38%, slightly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1270.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1199.46 to 1340.54 (+/- 5.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1217.78 to 1322.22
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1147.83 to 1392.17
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1174.75

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte and 1-dte

#SPX7dteLong Earlier in the day, STC $SPX Apr 27th 2840/2860 call spreads for 19.30. Condors bought for 18.35 last Monday.

Bought to Open $SPX May 4th 2860/2880-2890/2910 condors for 17.65. First time I have gotten under 18.00, meaning volatility is dropping.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Apr 27th 2710/2730/2935/2955 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.

TSLA

BTC $TSLA May-01-2020 605/615 #BuPS @0.45. Was STO 04/17 @1.86.

Taking a smaller win, and getting some risk off the table.

#coveredcalls GPS Bought 100 shares…

#coveredcalls GPS

Bought 100 shares at 7.80, sold May 15, 7.50 call for .82.

#shortstrangles C Sold June 19,…

#shortstrangles C

Sold June 19, 35/55 strangle for 1.68

#tastytradefollow

Fading TLT

Sold $TLT 6/19 170/175 bear call spread @ 1.50

VIAC

Sold VIAC 05/01/2020 18.00 Covered Calls @ 0.08 and again @ 0.13

SPY

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – A couple fills today…

Bought to Close SPY APR 29 2020 267.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.04)
Sold SPY MAY 06 2020 275.0 Puts @ 2.00

Rolled SPY APR 29 2020 259.0 Calls to MAY 15 2020 261.0 Calls @ .19 debit (5.40 total now)

CC on ET May 8 $7.50 for net $6.99 ($7.17 share – $.18 Option) Ex Div May 6 $.305

#coveredcall #dividend

LULU

STO $LULU May-08-2020 190/200 #BuPS @.65. Delta @10 for short put.
BTC $LULU May-01-2020 185/195 #BuPS @0.07. Was STO 4/21 @0.90.