According to a study by Bloomberg’s quants Lily Gu and Bryan Liang, who looked at how options markets are positioned for the election, the market is split in two in terms of what it expects will happen on Nov 4: as shown in the chart below, the equity options market showed a 54% chance of a upside movement (+2.7%) between Nov. 2 and Nov. 4, and 45% chance of a larger drop (-3%).

log return distribution

ADBE roll down

Rolled $ADBE 550/560 bear call spread down to 485/495 for 1.35 credit. Part of iron condor with 450/440 bull put spread. Total premium taken in 4.79.

ZM roll down

Rolled $ZM 560/570 bear call spread down to 500/510 for 1.55 credit. Paired with 460/450 bull put spread. After two roll downs of the bear call spread side, total premium taken in is now 5.79.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 2nd 3045/3065-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.10.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 2nd 3395/3375 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.50 last Tuesday.

I have an order in to buy a Nov 6th condor for 18.35. Volatility and premium are high so I won’t get filled unless things calm down into the close.


#ShortPuts – Adding one…

Sold LABU DEC 04 2020 35.0 Put @ 1.65


I’m long IBM and think the recent beating it has taken is rather overdone.

Sold IBM 1 x 3 x 2 Nov 13 2020: 110 / 115 / 120 Call Unbalanced Butterfly @ 0.32 debit.

This is a punt where I am willing to take on the task of managing a short 2 x 115 / 120 call spread, especially as that means I pocket 5 points from the 110 / 115 long call spread.

Limited downside risk (cost of the debit). Upside breakeven point @ $117.


MGM Put Rolled / NIO Call / T Put


$MGM BTC 11/6 22 put and STO 11/13 21.50 put at even
$T STO 11/20/26.5 put at .45


$NIO STO 11/6 36 calls at .75. Against stock that was assigned Friday at $31


KRE STO 11/6/20 43.0 CALLS @.67
KRE STO 11/6/2039.0 PUTS @.34
VIAC STO 11/6/20 31.0 CALLS @.77 Earnings this Friday, 11/6/20, I will be out, as is my wont.


#ShortStrangles@OptionIceman pointed this out the other day. Great premium in it…

Sold BIIB NOV 6 2020 220.0/315.0 Strangle @ 7.21


#ShortPuts – Nice reversal from Friday. I’ll take it early and look for something new on a pullback…

Bought to Close TSLA NOV 06 2020 350.0 Put @ 2.55 (sold for 5.94)

Malls Dragged Into Bankruptcy by…

Malls Dragged Into Bankruptcy by Carnage Among Retail Tenants

Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust and CBL & Associates Properties Inc. sought protection from creditors Sunday, citing pandemic-induced pressures on their tenants and, in turn, themselves. Together the two REITs account for some 87 million square feet of real estate across the U.S.,

#assignment #coveredcalls TWTR #earnings assigned…

#assignment #coveredcalls TWTR #earnings

assigned TWTR from an Oct. 30, 44/63 earnings trade.
Sold 40.50 covered call for 1.46.

Last Week and Oct/YTD Results – Tough week/month