According to a study by Bloomberg’s quants Lily Gu and Bryan Liang, who looked at how options markets are positioned for the election, the market is split in two in terms of what it expects will happen on Nov 4: as shown in the chart below, the equity options market showed a 54% chance of a upside movement (+2.7%) between Nov. 2 and Nov. 4, and 45% chance of a larger drop (-3%).

log return distribution