XBI 87 2019 leap and short 95.5 call rolled up to 96.5 and out to July 27 for 0.29 credit. Total risk and cost basis now down to 10.02 in 2 weeks. Initial cost was 10.63.
I think #supercharger and #fuzzy are the best for small accounts. This is only a 2 k account and up $300 in 2 weeks or 11% over that time. Also because of the spread it lowers the volatility.
Sitting on hands until next Thursday, the will roll everything out 2 weeks for vacation.
WDC 78 put expiring tomorrow rolled down to 77 next week for 0.18 credit.
Hopefully the tariff rhetoric and tweets settle down, costing me $.
First #pietrade 24
EXPE 24 DTE 115 put sold for 1.90. This is heading into earnings but will probably roll or close before then.
These work great but always looking for ways to improve on tactics. Improve returns, success rate, less adjusting because adjusting costs money or delays profit taking. I am not greedy, just trying to figure out what works the best with the least amount of work or adjustments.
So I have been experimenting with this on a limited basis. Instead of starting #pietrades with only 4-8 DTE, go out about 3 weeks. Split the distance between tasty trades recommended 45 DTE and the 1 week for classic PIE trading This does 4 things. Gets you farther OTM, collects higher premiums, but stays on the steepest part of the decay curve, and allows quicker recycling of capital. Also most will be rolled or closed before full expiration. My limited experimenting with them shows most are closed or rolled within 2 weeks of opening.
I don’t think we need a new hashtag, they are still in the PIE realm. Maybe just add a 21 to it if you post it, so 21 #pietrade or #pietrade 21 or however many days until expiration.
So I am looking at 3 possible this morning. EXPE, VLO, AXP. Will post once I see where market opens. Also on vacation week of 7/14-21, be out in @smasty160 country so a perfect time to start a few of these as I will not be trading that week.
As the time value erodes, would then roll each week in same name if you still like the ticker or move to new positions as the market oscillates.
Will keep posted on how they work real time and on a larger scale.
XBI #fuzzy
The 95 short strike was already breached so rolled this week 95 out to 11 DTE 95.5 for 0.32 credit. Total risk now down to 10.31. Goal is to have a zero cost basis trade in 10-20 weeks or if the short calls keep going ITM close it for profit and reset at higher strikes.
Some days better to be lucky than good. Did not have time to sell CC on MU at the open. Up 1.3 now so a better time now.
STO 11 DTE MU 55 call for 0.94. Cost basis now 57.5.
Also working some orders on FAS and TQQQ for cc but will have to post later. Too busy at work.
Looks like I am being assigned or assigned early on TQQQ, FAS, MU, and will sell calls on Monday. This morning’s bounce looked like it would make these a lot easier. We have comcast at work and entire east coast internet was out which made work hard with an EHR. Looks like the bounce fizzled later afternoon.
Anyway, for those with big accounts, you can take #pietrade one step further. If I had bigger accounts I would do this. The decay is great on weeklies, but weeks like this they all tend to get run over at the same time. I personally would run 3 different names in each account and since I have 5-6 accounts that would give good diversification. My ultimate goal is to sell #pietrade ladders. Start the process 21 DTE. Each week add a new trade in the same 3 names. But for example using XBI. The 7 day ATM put is going for 0.77-.99 (95-96 strike) so can’t even get a buck. But if you go out 21 DTE you can sell the 92 put for 1.03-1.10. Three more dollars OTM so less likely to be breached and if you are breached probably at a better place to take assignment because it is a much bigger pull back. The only draw back is you are in the trade 2 more weeks and tying up capital.
But if your goal is income and you have a large enough account, it would be highly effective. I have tried it on small scale and whenever I was assigned they ended up wining in 1-2 weeks because it was usually at the end of a pull back. I could only run 3 contracts on 1 name or 1-2 contracts on 3 names. So it was not bringing in my income goal but when the accounts are larger this will be my main trading tactic.
Ultimate goal is 10 contracts on 3 names in each account for 3 weeks rolling. If you can get $1.00 or better that would be $3000 a week x however many accounts you have. Nice paycheck either way 🙂 To do that probably need a 300k account if using margin or twice that in a non margin account. You would also need names around $100.
Have a great weekend, update which calls I sell on Monday. If looks like more of a rebound I may leave them uncovered for a few days.
Spoke with my account rep. I have $4.95 stock trades. Options are either 0.65 and $4.95 ticket charge or 1 and no ticket charge.
Doing the math the break even point is about 11-13 contracts. If 10 or lower ask for the 1.00 option no ticket charge. If over 11 contacts go for the 0.65 with 4.95 ticket charge.
Hope that helps the other TOS users 🙂
#fuzzy in a really small account, 2 contracts.
XBI Jan 19 long 87 call short July 6 95 call for 10.63. With 29 weeks left only need 0.29 per week to make it a risk free trade.
#optionsexpiration #pietrades and #supercharger
Mostly adjustments and rolling. Only problem with #pietrades is when 1 goes ITM, they all go ITM. A lot of red on paper this week and will take some 2-8 weeks to break even or profit but can be done. The only one I can’t seem to repair at the moment is the SOXL #supercharger. Not because I don’t know how, don’t have enough cash in the account to do it.
SOXL #supercharger for those that have a few dollars left here is what I want to/would do if I had enough cash left. Sell the long 140 calls and roll to Sept. for about 11.20 debit. Then roll the July 145 down to 140 for 2.6 credit. Creates a calendar that can then be adjusted 1 more time and a profit at current levels at expiration if it does not move too much. New breakeven range of 132-150. I have 7 contracts and would add about $770 to the trade but recovers it for a while. Here is the graph. Since I don’t have enough cash I have to use the Aug. expiration which only gives me 1 shot at recovery so personally I am taking a $1470 loss and will roll it into something else. The account is very small, smaller now and need to preserve what’s left to be able to trade again. Likely a #fuzzy as it will be the most efficient over the long term but may ratio to prevent losses on the upside.
MU taking assignment tomorrow at 58.44 cost basis and sell CC on Monday. A rebound would be nice 🙂 but momentum has definitely shifted across the market.
FAS taking assignment at cost basis of 64.82 and will CC on Monday.
AMAT 49 CC rolled down to 47 at 22 DTE for 0.71 credit. Cost basis now 50.83 so will take some time to recover this one. Especially since had to roll out 3 weeks.
TQQQ taking assignment at 59.95 and will cc on Monday.
AMAT 49 cc rolled down to 47 22 DTE for 0.75 credit. Cost basis now 47.67 so this one is getting close to scratching.
#pietrades are awesome but when some of your names move 10+ points in a week there will be paper losses until you can work it back to even. On the triples can get about $1-2 a week in ATM premium, but be ready to roll up quickly on a whipsaw. Stocks under 100 take longer because you can only get about 0.5-1 per week on those. Stick with it though and you will eventually turn a profit. On thing OIB teaches it think like an investor (long term) but trade like a trader. Only do #pietrades on names you don’t mind holding for a while and weeks like this show you why. I will be in MU and AMAT for several more weeks.
Hope everyone else is having a good week and expiration. Will update the call sales and adjustments on Monday (hopefully will have time to trade at lunch the office has been crazy busy so may not get the chance).
Just noticed my commission rates went back up off the EOG trade. Need to call my rep but seems like it randomly reverts.
Check your commissions and make sure they are not charging a higher rate than advertised or what you contracted with them.
#pietrade management.
BTC EOG 115 put for 0.06. Sold for 1.12.
MU will take assignement at 58.44
WDC will roll down tomorrow, ATM now ans still over 1 of time value left.
FAS and TQQQ will probably do the same tomorrow.
LABU has pulled back enough to consider reloading puts, almost 20 point drop this week.
Too busy for any other trades today, update tomorrow.
That’s a red day, first chance to look at the market.
So lots of #pietrades are now ITM but still have 3-4 days left. The only one that looks like it needs to covert to CC is MU, down 10 points in a week. Will be quicker to take assignment at cost basis of 58.44 and work it back with calls. Others are still ATM so will let more time value evaporate before doing anything with them. Will update as I adjust.
MU STO 59.5 put at 1.06 for next week.
Last trade until next week.
One more note on #pietrades. I have moved 60-80% of my portfolio to true #pietrades. 20-35% is one time opportunities and usually a #pietrade type scalp or earnings play or a #fuzzy, and 5% true speculative. I am trying to create and income replacement machine and seems to be working. Just need to avoid big losses like SVXY.
#pietrade updates.
When the market gives you a gift early, take it an don’t ask questions so rolling/closing early and set up new trades.
Ok, so after #pietrades for 15 months straight here is what I have figured out works the best. Need a little bit of timing and a directional bias. Personally use the 4 hour chart as that seems to correlate well with the next week.
Higher premiums = easier to manage.
I am moving towards more ETFs as it gets rid of some of the single stock risk.
My current bull pen has contracted dramatically. Here is what I am trading and only about 3-6 on an every week basis, others are more weekly scalps.
True weeklies: AAPL, EOG, EXPE, IBB, XBI, LABU, FAS, TQQQ, TNA, UPRO, WDC, AMAT, SMH. Even with these I will try to time and do not trade every one every week.
All the others I trade are set up like #pietrades but they may only run a week or 2 depending on movement. LABU is on hold until a pull back. Up 25% in 3 weeks and I am not going to chase it but great premiums and will re-enter when we have even a little pull back. It was in the 80s 3 weeks ago, hit 112 today.
BTC LABU 96 and 92.5 puts for 0.1, 0.15 and 0.15 across 3 accounts.
New trades
EOG STO the next week 115 put for 1.1. Plan to trade this true #pietrade week to week. Has stabolized now that oil is in a range again.
WDC STO next week 78.5 put for 1.13 same as above but its range is now 78-87.5 or so.
FAS STO next week 66 p for 1.18 and will roll week to week.
STO TQQQ next week 61 p for 1.05 same.
Old trades still on
AMAT 51 CC rolled to 49 next week for 0.69 credit. Cost basis 51.54. Few more weeks and should be able to cover the earnings drop.
AMAT 50.5 cc rolled to next week 49 for 0.64 credit. Cost basis now 48.42 so will probably let is close and start over or use a different ticker.
Total income $3147 for the week so not a bad weekly pay check for a vacation week. Now go sit on my hands at the beach, actually can’t sit still that long. Will surf, SUP, kiteboard, windsurf, bike, depending on weather 🙂
Have a great week!
SRPT, if anyone was long that is a lottery ticket, up 44% today as their muscular dystrophy drug shows promise. I think this is what is pulling LABU up. Only 1.4% of LABU that I can find but a big move like that will pull it along.
#pietrade rolls
LABU 92.5 puts rolled to next week 93, 96 for varying credits of 1.5, 1.03, 1.00.
AMAT 50.5 CC rolled to next week for 0.5 credit. Cost basis now 49.06.
AMAT 51 CC rolled to next week for 0.46. Cost basis 52.23, this is the batch that went against us on the earnings trade. Another 4-6 weeks to scratch it.
#supercharger SOXL 36 DTE 125/130 vertical was sold last week for 4.65. Will roll or close as the time value decays.
Looking at a BIB #supercharger but want to wait for at least a little pull back.
That’s all for this week, have a good weekend. Sitting on my hands until next Thurs but on vacation and staying around here so if there are opportunities may trade before then. Vacation starts with Imagine Dragons concert on Sat. in Hershey PA!
Have a great week 🙂
Hoping for a pull back after FOMC so I can roll some highly profitable trades down a few strikes for next week. Inflation running 2.7% on the raw numbers so that may mean an extra hike this year.
2 sided market would be nice and rate hikes should do it.
Light day, rolled most of everything early in the week.
GM assigned yesterday at 37.5 CC. Cost basis was 37.72 but will take the small loss just to get out. $321 loss but was down 4 k at one point. Won’t #pietrade this again for a while.
AMAT pulled back a little so rolled the 50.5 cc to next week for 0.65 and dropped cost basis to 48.91. Have 1 other account still working back to even with cost basis of 52.39.
Everything else expires next week so will sit on my hands and let theta decay do it’s thing.
Have a great weekend!
Someone finally took my GM stock for the dividend. Total loss of $321 after 22 or so weeks of rolling. Could have been worse, at one point was down almost 4k.
Rolling works but names with higher premiums work better. For those following #pietrades GM is off the list. Plenty of better opportunities out there.
Older study but good data. They keep showing 45 DTE is always the best performance for selling options OTM. Also managing at 50% seems to be key to consistent gains.
I like the #pietrades a lot and will continue to do them as my primary trade tactic but for those with bigger accounts may be better to sell 45 DTE and set up ladders. Can stay farther OTM, stay on the sweet spot of decay fro OTM options, less adjusting, and steady income. This alludes to the million dollar account with SPY from a few days ago.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/best-practices/episodes/short-puts-increasing-duration-09-06-2016
Definitely a risk on day, people piling into the market at all time highs. To quote Buffett, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. I think we are approaching the latter.
I am sitting on my hands and letting theta work but am actually starting to look for some potential hedges that could pop in value if/when we get reversal and pull back. Not saying it would be big, but this is not going to end well for people that are just getting into the market at all time highs.
Read the LABU/LABD prospectus cover to cover last night. Similar math and graph as what @jeffcp66 posted yesterday. They very clearly state that if the index goes no where, the fund will lose money and they truly are for short term trading. However, unlike SVXY/XIV there is no mention that it can go to zero or be liquidated but in periods of extreme volatility it will fair worse than a non leveraged product because of the adjustments. However once the move occurs subsequent adjustments actually mute the effects a little.
For example on day 1 a 50% drop in the index would cause a 90% drop in NAV. Another 50% the next day that number would decrease to around 80%. Still a lot of pain but not as severe.
I think the way to trade these is sell premium, hedge/spread up front so risk is controlled, and any sudden moves get out quick. Don’t want to hold the ETF long term unless you have a strong directional bias.
Personally I will be adjusting these to spreads instead of naked #pietrades. That way can still collect the premiums but control worst case scenario. Don’t want another SVXY implosion in my accounts. However the spreads will be fairly wide 5-10 points so the premium collected is still excellent. For instance an 18 DTE LABU pcs at 87/82 is going for 0.6 credit with only 5k at risk. Much less cash than selling naked but also a huge reduction in risk! Perhaps a better way to trade them? 🙂
Rapid fire trades (not as fast as an algo but close). 5 accounts in 15 minutes! All expiring this week so added a week.
#pietrades rolled LABU 85 puts up to 92.5 in 3 different accounts for credits of 2, 20.5, 2.25. I expect these may be challenged if we get any pull back.
AMAT rolled 51 cc to next week for 0.30 credit. Cost basis now 52.39. 2-3 more rolls should allow me to keep the original credit.
AMAT 50.5 CC will allow to expire this Friday. Cost 49.56 so a nice winner after 3-4 weeks of rolling puts and calls true #pietrade style.
GM 37.5 CC will close Friday finally. A little loss, cost basis was 37.72 but will just be happy to have the cash to use for other trades. Staying out of this one until the premiums are much better.
Back to sitting on my hands until Friday or Monday depending on what the rest of the week does.
Collected another $3163 in premium from these trades so nice week for trading a few days early, did not expect the market to stay up, will probably pay for a few of these trades later but at least have a cash cushion now 🙂
Some observations as I closed out another week. Good 3 weeks 🙂 the pull back a few weeks ago really helped.
1. Critical mass on accounts seems to be around 50k. At that point the compounding really starts to kick in and the account becomes self sustaining for positive theta, #pietrades, income trades. Trades that need to be adjusted do not seem to affect the account value as much at these levels as well. Trading 6 different accounts with different values, lowest $3500 so can really see the difference. Each contract adds a lot more cash each week. 5-10 contracts is where the income really starts to compound and pay off. Even 3 contracts is a lot better than 1 unless talking AMZN or PCLN.
2. Some names are just better than others. GM is out as soon as it closes this week. Names with perceived high volatility but don’t really move around a lot and have good premiums (0.5-1% per week minimum) do the best and are easier to adjust.
3. I try to suck all the time value out of an option but once down to 0.2 roll it for better theta decay.
4. defending trades, easier to do it before the option goes way ITM or better yet, roll it before it even gets there. You will loose a little in time value but by rolling earlier you can stay ahead and continually bring in credits. Now if it is sitting right ATM I will wait until the last minute to roll it but if there is any time left, easier to roll early.
5. Taking a slight directional bias really increases returns. Allows to sell puts closer to ATM and also time call sales better.
6. For small accounts the #supercharger seems to work the best. Better ROI than credit spreads, less adjusting, less risk overall (defined) and more cushion for pull backs as you are already deep ITM. However, have to work the spread on entry or the exit is not as profitable. For any of my accounts under 10k I will be doing a lot more of these. 10k and up probably #pietrades with some #fuzzies thrown in. Occasional #spycraft as well but to be honest the #supercharger are doing much better when we have pull backs and more consistent gains.
Sitting on my hands until Fri. Hopefully we have a pull back, at least a little one where no one gets crushed 🙂
Too busy to check in until now, we need a pull back, everything overcooked again!
Usually don’t trade Wed. but apparently my wife signed me up to be a chaperone on a school trip tomorrow so taking advantage of the snap back and rolling a bunch of #pietrades
LABU various accounts roll 84 put to next week 85 for credits of 1.35, 1.38, and 1.30.
AMAT rolled the 51 CC to next week for 0.42 credit. This is the one that dropped after earnings. Cost basis now 52.69 and should be able to scratch in in 3-6 more weeks. For those following stick with it, will make some $ on it in a few more rolls.
The second batch rolled 50.5 cc out a week for 0.37 credit. This one is already ITM with a cost basis of 49.56. My plan is to keep rolling as long as I can bring in more than 0.2 per week. Once it drops below will let it assign and then go back to put sales until assigned and do it over and over, true #pietrade style. This one works unlike GM because you can get about 1% per week out of the options. I traget 0.5% or higher every week for the #pietrades.
SOXL 125/130 vertical debit sitting on hands for 2 more weeks. Bought for 4.65 and should close for 5 credit.
GM 37.5 CC closes next Friday. Cost basis 37.72 and I will gladly take the .24 loss just to get out. Rolling to next week only gives 0.09, hardly worth the effort so once this closes it is off the #pietrade list unless the premiums increase dramatically.
All told picked up $1976 cash for next week including commissions so even rolling a few days early does not hurt 🙂
Hope everyone is having a good week, won’t be able to check in until Friday afternoon but at this point sitting on my hands for another week.
VIX is up nicely 🙂 that will be good for rolling and expiration on Thurs./Fri.
#pietrades normally would have rolled/closed these tomorrow but there are only 4 of us in the office tomorrow (usually 14) so I doubt I would have any time to trade. Will be busy!
BTC MAR 139 puts for 1.70. After 2 rolls still made $459 in 2 weeks. Did not like the way the chart was starting to look. With gas/oil prices climbing may be less travel this summer.
This brings me to my next conclusion. It is debatable whether to trade individual tickers on #pietrades for the higher premiums than we get with ETFs vs taking advantage of some of the leveraged ETFs. Personally I am trying to move to ETFs, but the weekly premium dried up. Today might help. SMH still looked good for a week but IBB, XBI and the indexes all dropped their juicy premiums. So anyway, I have been doing this for several months now, I think it may be safer and easier to trade the leveraged products. You do not have single company risk, the premiums are high enough they are easy to roll. Yes in a big market drop they will get crushed but in looking at their histories most would be reverse split instead of liquidate like XIV/SVXY. Thoughts? Anyone see a risk I am missing?
So with that said with the recent splits looks like the list from a few days ago is still accurate but the liquidity is not all the way back on TQQQ and UPRO. I tried to #supercharger them but the market makers were not giving reasonable fills.
GM 37.5 CC expires 6.8. Was going to try to keep it for the dividend now but rolling only gives me .14 credit, not worth it. Hopefully I will be called out early for the dividend so I can use the cash somewhere more productive.
LABU STO 84 put for next week 8 DTE for 1.45
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.05 credit.
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.1 credit
AMAT rolled 51 CC to next week for 0.36 credit. Cost basis now 53.11 and will keep chipping away.
AMAT 50.5 CC rolled to next week for 0.42 credit. Cost basis now 49.93. Will allow assignment or roll again next week depending on premiums.
#spycraft closed the 15 DTE 265/262 pcs fro 0.25. sold for 0.24 so lost .1 and commissions.
#supercharger Found a good use for SOXL and BIB since they don’t have weeklies.
SOXL 22 DTE 125/130 vertical debit spread for 4.65. Should close for 5 credit close to the end. 30 + points ITM and still able to squeeze out 13-14% return for 22 days. That’s 169-182% annualized and easy to mange if it implodes.
Hope everyone has a great long weekend! Thanks to all those who served!!
AMAT already back up 3% which is what usually happens with the big sell offs, CELG being the exception. Anyway waiting for tos updates to load so I can find a trade but may wait until lunch time to see where we are.
Done sitting on my hands, theta did it’s thing.
#pietrades
MAR 139 put expires tomorrow rolled out to next week for 0.81 credit. Cb now 137.08 if assigned.
GM CC expires in 3 weeks 37.5 cb 37.72 but if ITM good bye finally. That will be 22 weeks in the trade to almost scratch it. The money will be put to better use somewhere else!
BTC MU 52.5 put for 0.04 sold for 0.63
STO LABU 85 put at 1.45. cb 83.55 if assigned 8 DTE
STO LABU 85 put at 1.2. Cb 83.8 if assigned 8 DTE
AMAT 55 put should be assigned tomorrow at 54.02 cost basis. Will flip to CC on Monday.
BTC AAL 42 put at 0.04 sold for 0.53
AMAT 52.5 put should expire tomorrow, cost basis 50.80 even if assigned. Reload monday.
#spycraft 22 DTE PCS at 265/262 was sold for 0.24. Just waiting another 1-2 weeks for some decay to erode it then will roll it.
Will only have 2 trades for Monday, then sit on my hands again until Thurs or Fri depending on what the market gives us.
Raining here but still going out to bike, have a good expiration!
Directional tweak to #pietrades. Less adjusting, faster and larger profits. Not going full directional but I am using a 4 hour chart with all my technical indicators to improve the probability of the trade working out. 4 hour charts seem to predict the next week expiration fairly well.
Example below is of IBB. I sold the 104.5 put for 1.15 on Friday. If you notice, it was coming off support and had just signaled a buy signal, confirmed on 3 indicators. Not that they can’t be wrong but they are fairly accurate. Perfect time for a close to the money or even ITM put sale. In retrespect I should have sold ATM.
The second chart is MAR which I sold a put on today. Normally a chart like this I would sell an ITM CC with the expectation that it would pull back. I could then roll the call to the next week for additional income. Today I had exactly 8 minutes for lunch and it was quicker to sell the put. So my logic is that it will pull back a few points but looking ahead to next week if assigned at 139 = 137.90 cost basis, I can immediately sell the 138 call for 1.75-1.9 for 4 DTE or 2.35-2.55 for 11 DTE to gain additional cash and dropping cost basis another 1-2 points. Sometimes by looking a week or 2 ahead you can see in advance how to manage the trade if it ends up ITM. My hip is to be just barely assigned, then roll to CC until called away. Then rinse and repeat.
Found a few for the weekly #pietrades that expire this Friday.
BTC IBB 104.5 puts for 0.25. Sold Friday for 1.15, thanks mr market
#spycraft SPY 25 DTE 265/262 put credit spread for 0.24. Waiting on call side until the manic buying stops.
STO AAL 42.5 puts 4 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb 41.97 as long as @fuzzballl stays off the throttles, fly slow!
STO MAR 4 DTE 139 puts at 1.1 for cb 137.9 if assigned.
GM 38 CC 2 weeks rolled out 25 dte to 37.5 for 0.32 credit. Cost basis 37.72 and if it is above 37.5 they can have it. Just want the cash out so can trade other tickers.
STO MU 4 DTE 52.5 put for 0.86 cb 51.87 if assigned.
STO 4 DTE AMAT 55 put for 0.98. Cb 54.02 if assigned.
Usually not that active on a Monday but had a ton of expirations on Friday and since IBB gave me a gift was able to double down on MAR doubling my usual cash income 🙂
Now I sit on my hands until Thurs. or Friday.
Monday #pietrades and a #supercharger and a credit spread
Premium dried up but could still find a few trades that would make at least 1% in a week, 10% in a month or more.
1. 4 DTE MU 51 CC for 50.10 based on friday prices, that will change some at the open but it will be around there. That is my disclaimer for all of these, based on Friday prices.
2. MAR 132/129 put credit spread for 0.37 or so for 6.8.18 expiration
3. AAL 42 put for 4 DTE for 0.45 and puts and calls are at parity. Maybe @fuzzballl can save a few gallons of fuel and the price will go back up.
4. SMH 25 DTE #supercharger 90/95 call spread for 4.5
Question for @fuzzballl on #fuzzies. What delta do you usually start with on the LEAPs on the long term fuzzies? You going deep or more like a calendar? I find easier to adjust as a calendar but obviously a deep ITM LEAP is going to behave more like a CC.
Everything looks overcooked at the moment except the biotechs and some of the chips. You guys were busy yesterday, I was at the beach. Last week we need wetsuits, water warming up quickly!
#pietrades, #optionsexpiration, and assigned early
Expiring today or assigned early:
TNA 69 cc cost basis 64.87 and was assigned early so get to redeploy that capital early-thanks mr market
FAS 61 CC at 56.36 cb
FAS 61 CC at 59.31 cb and will reload this account Monday
FAS 61 cc at 53.91 cb and will reload something on Monday
FAS 63 CC at 60.53 cb and 100 shares at 63.14 so a minor loss but overall this account was profitable and will reload on Monday.
XME 35 CC at cb of 34.44 and will reload Monday. This is a tiny account now from the SVXY losses.
#pietrade rolls:
AMAT 49 put rolled up to 52.5 put for 0.53 credit. Total credit now 1.7 and if assigned cost basis 50.8
#pietrade new position starter
IBB 104.5 put at 1.15 credit so 103.35 cb if assigned and would take it there
malingerers
GM 38 CC at cost basis of 38.04 expires in 14 days. I will gladly get rid of it at a 0.04 loss just so I can use the $ somewhere else. This is week 17 of this trade, just stuck and this one sucks for #pietrades, it is off the list until the premiums double. Anyone else trading this one with me it is getting taken out of the rotation.
Additional trading thoughts now that I finally have all the SVXY cleared out from the Feb 6 losses and can finally use all 6 trading accounts again.
1. Capital preservation is key. Now that I have had 3 account blowing out losses, at age 45 and 47 realize I cannot afford to lose my capital base again, it is the only way I can replace my income.
2. Keeping segregated accounts that trade different tickers is ideal. This time SVXY only took out 2 accounts and small portions of 2 others. Had I not been diversified it would have been ugly and I would be working 7 days a week in the office and urgent care or ER just to try to make some back. Spread out the trading vehicles and even accounts, may save your bacon someday.
3. Trading for income is a great way to trade. Trading for extreme income and weekly is even better. Most of my losing trades can be converted to winners or break even by always bring in cash. Cash up front is easier to manage than trying to convert a losing directional trade.
4. #pietrades will make up the majority of my trades with some #supercharger s thrown in for the small accounts
5. Even with income trading you can target 50-100% annualized returns if you do it right. Guess we can call it extreme income trading!
6. Trading with the group has really helped my consistency. Thanks Bistro’ers 🙂 🙂
Hope everyone has a good expiration and Happy Mother’s Day!
Will have some trades ready for Monday morning.
One last announcement, we are still working out the details but I have had such good results with the #pietrades that I have been asked to become a contributor to the Options Income Blueprint service. Will keep you posted. It is mostly as a live and ongoing case study. I will not actually be sending out the recommendations, just how I am managing them live.
Awesome star wars may the fourth be with you box!
#optionsexpiration, early assignments, rolls, closed and new trades
BTC AAPL 160 put 1 DTE for 0.02. Sold for 2.18 on earnings play 🙂
TNA 69 CC rolled for 0.85 credit. Cost basis now 64.87.
TNA 55/60 #supercharger. Assigned early on the 60 so exercised the 55 to close everything out as I was short 1000 shares at 60. There were a few cents of time value left in the long call but was going to be a pain to buy back the short stock then sell the long call, although that would have resulted in full profit. Anyway made $630 total on a 10 lot or 12.3% in 14 days as it was assigned a week early. Will take it 🙂
I will be doing a lot more of these going forward but do not have any today.
The FAS trades all expired tomorrow and rolled to next week #pietrade style.
FAS 65 CC rolled to 61CC for 1.56 credit. CB now 56.36. The good premiums add up on the leveraged names and really reduce cost basis quickly. I will continue to trade many of these but may flip to bears if we really start tanking.
FAS 65 CC rolled to 61 cc for 1.56 credit. Cost basis on this batch 59.31.
FAS 65 CCrolled to 61 for 1.83 credit. Cost basis 53.91. This batch has been around the longest.
FAS 65 cc rolled to 63 for 0.80 credit. Cost basis 60.53.
FAS 65 cc rolled to 63 for 0.80 credit. Cost basis 63.14 so if assigned a $14 loss on each contract but will keep rolling. This was the most recent addition.
#supercharger AAPL 145/150 14 DTE closed for credit of 4.97, bought for 4.33 debit. Nearly full profit 2 weeks early 🙂
#pietrade STO XME 35 CC for 34.44. Roll or call out next week.
AMAT 49 put rolled to 49.5 next week for 0.60 credit. Cost basis now 48.83 and brought in 1.17 credit in 2 weeks.
We went from winter to summer, going for bike ride. Hope everyone has a good expiration. Will look for new #supercharger trades over the weekend.
I am going to be using more ETFs with the #pietrades as the volatility is putting individual names under water and taking too long to recover, GM dropped again today. As soon as I can close it out at even it is off the #pietrade list.
🙂
Another lesson in not trading naked calls/strangles in individual names. ANDV most recently TSO is up 24 points in the last 3 days. Apparently buyout by marathon oil.
#jadelizard trades for individual names, strangles only in indexes………
I had a strangle briefly a few weeks ago as a recovery, good thing I unwound it. I will take lucky over good some days!!
We had this discussion many months ago, I think it is worth revisiting. I have noticed significant changes in efficiency of capital depending on what the market is doing.
Obviously at the moment we have the benefit of higher volatility, that is keeping some of the options premium higher, which is nice if you are an option seller.
From a strictly margin standpoint it appears that using the futures options provides the best ROI/ROC but also has a lot of risk. With credit spreads, the benefit decreases but is still there.
The leveraged products have higher premiums but most of the brokerages account for higher margin requirements so there does not appear to be a significant advantage other than the higher credits received. However, easier to manage with the higher credits.
ETF’s especially the indexes have good margin treatment, 20% in most cases but when volatility is low the premiums are not there.
Most individual tickers are also treated well with margin, but I noticed a few names have higher requirements because of volatility. Usually the biotechs and start-ups.
Currently on the #pietrades in my core account I am trying to collect $1000 a week minimum. If I am able to do that for a year will result in a 72% return on investment using only 20% margin requirements. Obviously I cannot do that with the IRA accounts. Also cannot trade futures options in the IRA accounts.
Also because of the weekly trading I am trying to compound returns as much as possible.
Just a few thoughts, if anyone else has noticed other areas to improve efficiency let me know.
My hope is to have a portfolio margin account again within the next 6 months but I will not use it to its full capacity, will continue to limit to 20% margin use to prevent blowing out another account like I did in 2015. However the efficiency of capital improves with a portfolio margin account because of the relaxed margin requirements. I think tastytrade did a segment on this and it basically doubled returns without increasing risk.
I am not doing this but popped up on scan SRPT, biotech has earnings on 5/3 and premiums are huge. I am not playing it but looks interesting as a 1 lot.
No one will believe me because I did not post and everyone here knows my track record on directional plays, but at 1300 today I saw momentum changing (on my tools, I did not actually see it) and I distinctly counted 5 elliott waves on the way down. Maybe there is some ope for me trading directionally 🙂
Benefits:
The premiums are huge, easier to roll than some of my #pietrade names
Because it is an ETF like @jsd501 mentioned one company going bankrupt or merging is not going to destroy the ETF it will still be there.
Most are fairly liquid.
Can take a directional bet if you are into that kind of trading 🙂
Can use them to move into and out of sectors
Risks:
Leverage cuts both ways
Looking at how most are structured do not think we will have an XIV/SVXY occurrence but several have had reverse splits. Need to pay attention to potential reverse splits.
A rapid move may take some time to recover.
Some move a lot more than others, TQQQ for example moves more than TNA.
Margin requirements are stricter. TOS requires full cash value when calculating margin. Don’t know if it is different for portfolio margin.
So far the moves have been more manageable with these than some of my #pietrades. I would not load the boat on them, but see this as a viable option to single tickers to get better premiums and easy rolling.
Thoughts, others seeing something with risk that I may have missed? Anyone found any others I have missed?
Currently using ERX, FAS, TNA, TQQQ, UPRO, UDOW, LABU (many reverse splits), BIB (no weeklies 😦 ), UYG same, UCO, UBIO no weekly, SOXL no weekly.
Anybody found others wiht decent option volume?
Rolled GM 14 DTE 38.5 CC down to 38 24 DTE for 0.23 credit. Cost basis now 37.81 after 15-16 weeks of rolling. Like an old car this trade just won’t die. I am just targeting a break even on this so I can use the capital somewhere else but I suspect will still be rolling this in the summer.
Take GM off the #pietrade list for a while, moves more than the premiums allow you to adjust.
I am usually not an earnings player, but the premiums in AAPL are too juicy to pass up.
If I had not used a big chunk of margin I would buy 5 of the 165 cc and sell 5 of the 165 puts for Friday, earnings today I believe. Only have enough to sell 1 contract so:
STO the AAPL 160 put at 2.14. 4 DTE but if up after earnings will close early. If not, roll it.
STO the 4 DTE AMAT 49 put at 0.57 when it was trading at 49.72.
Looks like this and the other semiconductors are finding a bottom.
CME has some issues getting opening to TOS but working now. Up 1.25 on /ES fyi.
#pietrade and triple leveraged addition.
LABU like xbi/ibb on speed!
Good premiums but would need to work the order, spreads are .20 wide.
Sometimes it takes blowing out an account (or 2 on SVXY) to really make you focus. I have always learned more with a 2 x 4 to the back of the head than with a gentle nudge. So I went back to the drawing board, looked at all my trades that worked, what didn’t, and some alternative ways to trade and it has allowed me to concentrate on what works since Feb. 6, 2018. You would have thought I would have kept something in my head from Aug. 24, 2015 but apparently not.
So here is what I have going forward in order of how I am trading in the future.
#pietrades. This is my bread and butter, pays the bills, making some of the losses back, easy to roll and adjust and works week in and week out no matter what the market does. Occasionally get stuck with one for a while, currently GM but can usually roll them to even.
#supercharger. Works better than credit spreads for really small accounts. I have learned how to adjust from @jeffcp66 and from the options for edge book, but because of my schedule I can’t always make the adjustment in time before they go ITM or breach the short strike. By then you are already controlling losses not making money. They expire for full profit most of the time because you set then up deep ITM, if assigned on the short strike easy to exercise your long, and very easy to convert to a #fuzzy or calendar leap if they explode. Then fairly easy to work back to even or profit.
#spycraft will be rolling some of these out on the mid size accounts again but found that the ones that were farther out in time were easier to manage. So these will be 21-45 DTE in the future, mostly using spy but some qqq, iwm and maybe even dia. 3-5 points between strikes so I can manage by buying in between the strikes when needed and will not let them go to expiration, will close at 50% profit or any profit that is decent.
CC straddles or strangles if have just taken assignment on a short put and at a support area.
CC return more on a cash basis than puts so with my #pietrades will be selling puts a lot closer to the money with the hopes of getting assigned so I can immediately flip to CC.
#fuzzies are a great way to convert losing trades into break even or winners.
The higher the premiums the easier it is to roll. So I am looking at the history of how often the move is exceeding the expected move. GM is a good example, expected move exceeded almost weekly but the premiums were crap so I have been rolling it for 15 weeks now. The higher premium names even when exceeded were usually back to break even in 2 weeks. Less work + more money = more free and fun time!
Never being short unhedged volatility again!!!
Sticking with those tactics and keeping it simple and profitable until the market changes and these no longer work and have to adjust again, but I think these are tactics that can work in any market condition.
With that said, bunch of rolls today and was assigned early on a few.
ERX #supercharger 20/25 assigned for full profit. Put on 21 days ago for 4.55 debit closed at 5 credit
EXPE 104 put expiring worthless :). That account will open #spycraft on Monday.
Smallest account AAPL 145/150 ITM call debit spread. 3 contracts max gain $207 for $1293 at risk. That is a 16% ROI if AAPL anywhere above 150 or 206% annualized. I will be doing a A LOT more of these going forward on the smaller accounts now that I have seen how they work for 8 weeks and even adjusted 2 to #fuzzies.
FAS 65 CC in 3 different accounts. Rolled for 1.14, 1.1, 1.15 credits and cost basis now 57.92, 55.74, 61.33 with FAS at 64.03.
Hope everyone has a good expiration and great weekend!
I was planning on letting this get called out tomorrow but since the premiums are there for the rolls I will take the cash.
TNA rolled this week 69 CC to next for 0.91 credit. Cost basis now 65.72 so I have some room to play with.
GM this week 38.5 CC rolled out 2 weeks for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 38.04. Just can’t seem to get rid of this one, want it gone to free up the capital for other uses. I think I am on week 14 roll now and still have not scratched it. At this point, I refuse to take a loss, just keep rolling down and out until it is eventually scratched. Taking this off the #pietrade list, moves around more than the option premium allows.
I will either a) have a lot expiring tomorrow or b) rolling a lot depending on how the premiums look at the open. Either way I will book profits or add cash, last few weeks have been great for padding cash into trades and now time to reap the profits.
Did not have time to post yesterday, work is cutting into my trading profits 😦 but not ready to go full time trader yet.
Anyway, yesterday FAS CC at 65 strike across several accounts. Cost basis 62.47, 56.84, and 59.06 after several weeks of rolling. Nice profits on all if assigned.
Today STO EXPE 104 puts for 3 DTE at 1.70. Earnings on 4/26 but good support at 104 after last drop. CB 102.3 if assigned.
Sitting on my hands rest of the week to let theta work. Will either have a bunch more on Friday or Monday.
Trade smart!
1 roll today, otherwise letting everything else assign/close/expire worthless and will re-load Monday.
TNA today 69 CC rolled to next week for 0.94 credit. Took advantage of the weakness to load more cash. Cost basis now 66.63.
Assigned early on half of my ERX 8 DTE 20/25 call vertical debit spread. So short half the spread. Easy fix, the 20 long call was so far ITM exercised at intrinsic value so made half the profit a week early. Will let the rest expire next week.
Sitting on my hands the next 2 days, then have a lot expiring tomorrow and will either let assign or roll on Monday depending on what’s left.
FAS CC at 65, 64, 66 are all ATM so will see what happens. Cost basis 61.27, 64.11, 58.17 and 60.63 so all looking good either way.
TNA 69 CC at full profit so will let assign tomorrow.
GM 38.5 CC next week, it is also ATM.
Finally 2 positive weeks in a row, easier with market moving up but I had some trades with a bearish bias as well. Have pulled back 11k on the SVXY losses. Still a long way to go but every bit helps.
Looking at trades for next week, good premiums still out there, WDC, EXPE, SMH, XBI all at top of the list. Some have earnings. SWKS possible #fallingknife looks like finding bottom.
That’s all I have until Monday, have a good expiration and weekend!
STO 4 DTE FAS 62 put at 0.73. Will take assignment if below or roll if not.
Did not have time to post yesterday (it was windy and warm and I had the day off so kiteboard season officially started Thurs).
XBI BTC 81 puts for 0.3 sold for 1.02 last week.
UTX BTc the 21 DTE 122/131 strangle for 2.49. Sold for many rolls for 2.5 so basically a scratch, wanted to free up the capital to use somewhere else. This was just wasting time and had already rolled 3 times and earnings coming up so just wanted out.
NSC btc 14 DTE 127/141 strangle for 2.8. Sold for 3.63 so same situation as UTX, just wanted the money to use somewhere else.
ERX #fuzzy ran away to the upside so closed for a slight profit. I lost track of the math since I had rolled it but bottom line is I gained back a little more than I put in. Closed for 6.6 and I think I had 6.22 in the trade.
FAS this week 64 cc rolled to next week for 1.25 cb 60.63
FAS this week 65 cc rolled next week for 1.2 credit. cb 58.17
FAS this week 67 cc rolled to next week 65 cc for 1.02 cb 64.11
LNG cc assigned at 54 cost basis 53.27.
Opened TNA ATM cc for next week at 69 for 67.55.
A few observations with all the whipsawing in the market. The leveraged products are easier to roll because of the higher premiums. Even though most of the FAS trades were underwater in 2 weeks that are all back to break even or profitable.
The deep ITM vertical debit spreads #supercharger work very well and easy to convert to #fuzzy if they need adjusting.
#pietrades are still my bread and butter but as @fuzzballl pointed out below, I am also moving towards more ETFs than single names. But they have to be on higher volatility names or the premiums are not there. XBI, FAS, ERX, TNA, TQQQ, UPRO, SMH, UDOW, QQQ, SPY, DIA are all trading well at the moment and I will be focusing on the names that work more consistently and actually require less work. My GM trade has taken 8-9 weeks to break even. ERX was down way more and only took 2 weeks of rolls to break even.
Going with the KISS principle going forward. Finally made back 6k of the SVXY losses in those accounts but still a long long way to go 😦
Spring here as well, 60 mile bike with friends this morning now going out to mow the lawn. Hope everyone gets to enjoy the weekend. Have a few trades lined up for Monday but depends on how we ope with Syria news.
For those that are interested, and there are now multiple expiration cycles on the options. No weeklies yet but I my hands, er account dirty again.
Did not have time to post but at lunch converted my UTX short puts and NSC short puts into strangles. Both going into earnings.
Normally I don’t do this on individual names, but trying to stay in some trades just a little longer to let theta do some work. As soon as I have a profit will close and roll down.
STO 24 DTE NSC 141 call for 0.6. Now have 127/141 strangle.
STO 24 DTE UTX 131 call for 0.6. Now have the 122/131 strangle.
I was looking at doing the same with XBI but is tearing to the upside. As soon as momentum shifts will add call side.
Some reversal, was there a stupid tweet I missed or the Syria and trade war rhetoric back in the news?
Lunch trades, work is cutting into my trading 🙂
FAS sold 4 DTE 65 CC for 1.74 against long stock. CB now 59.37, nice accrued rolls on this one.
NSC 18 DTE rolled out another week 128 put to 127 put for 0.3 credit. CB 126.33
FAS cold 4 DTE 65 CC against long stock for 1.77. CB now 61.88.
I was also looking at the triples and inverse funds. FAS has had several reverse splits, ERX as well. However, TQQQ, UPRO, UDOW, and TNA have only had positive splits. Not saying they cannot go low enough to reverse split but I am trying to refine this ITM debit spread idea #supercharger and I think going with names that are unlikely to reverse split would offer some additional cushion on the way down.
Trying to get the benefits of what we had with SVXY without the pain associated with it going close to zero.
Looks like the whippy market will continue. Up 10 at the open, back down to 6 and now up 13.
Will convert some of my short puts to #jadelizard and strangles on the etfs tomorrow to bring additional $ and help stay in positions through the CHOP!
Ripsaw market, up 30-50 one day, down 50-60 the next. I wanted some volatility but could be a little less pronounced than this.
Looks like all my CC will expire OTM now FAS, ERX, LNG, so will sell new calls on Monday.
Have a good weekend!
Looks like the big players want to rip the market down one day, then take it back up next few days. New range is 2560 to 2671. That’s a decent sized range to play ping pong but appears it will happen for a while.
Futures down 35 on /ES and /YM 384.
XBI selling into weakness, 22 DTE 81 put for 1.02.
BTC the ANDV 22 DTE 93 put for 0.35, sold for 1.1 or so off multiple rolls. My cost basis was 90.78 so I had a lot of built up credit. Reload on a pull back.
#pietrades and #supercharger trades
Finally 2 positive weeks in a row despite being assigned on final SVXY 50 puts.
TNA #supercharger 5/18 55/60 for 4.37 debit
ERX #supercharger 4/27 20/25 for 4.55 debit
ERX #fuzzy rolled 8 DTE out to 22 DTE 25.5 for 0.4 credit. Cost basis now 7.82
FAS CC rolled 67 CC expires tomorrow for 8 DTE for 1.12 credit. CB now 65.13
Assigned SVXY 50 put for 48.75, sold for 11.53 ouch but don’t see SVXY moving for a while so unloaded and used what little cash was left in this account for the ERX trade above. Left just enough to convert to a #fuzzy if needed.
#pietrades bunch of FAS, ERX, CC expiring tomorrow. Should all go out at full profit unless there is another stupid tweet.
Also some expiring next week. Will reload the ladders as they expire on Monday.
Hope everyone has a good expiration and is enjoying Mr. Whippy’s the market, not the ice cream shop although it is delicious!
We have an ice cream shop at the beach called Mr. Whippy’s, I think that could also be the name of the market!
#supercharger this is the ITM vertical debit spreads.
The adjustment to ERX yesterday is already paying off. With only a 0.24 increase in ERX, the long has gained and the short has decreased in time value so overall profit $750 on 10 contracts. Technically it is now a #fuzzy and that appears to be the way to adjust one that goes against you quickly and easily. Of course it has already moved through my short strike but will be easy to roll next week and have 41 weeks left of selling now to reduce cost basis. In 8 weeks should be a risk free trade.
Of all my positions yesterday, this one was the least underwater even though it was the biggest down percentage wise.
I will keep experimenting with these through all market conditions and see what is the best way to adjust them, what is the ideal time to put them on, and which conditions are ideal for them.
Will keep you posted as to how they work out longer term but think this may be a very viable trading idea. I may even buy the course, only $39 to see what the official recommendations are but with the trading brain power we have here I think we can figure it out! I also don’t think the course goes into adjusting, I think they just take them off at a set loss point.
#pietrades and rolling with some good premiums.
ANDV rolled 11 DTE 95 put to 25 DTE 93 put for 0.25 credit. Cost basis 90.78 if assigned.
NSC rolled 11 DTE 131 put to 25 DTE 128 put for 0.32 credit. CB 126.63 if assigned.
I will probably #jadelizard these if we get a bounce in next few days and also UTX but want better prices on a rebound.
ERX 21/26 4 DTE under water. Still some time value in the short option so will wait and roll later in the week. I will likely #fuzzy it to the Jan 19 call 20 strike, then just sell weekly options against it. With 41.5 weeks left would only need 0.19 per week to scratch the trade to zero so will probably sell OTM to give it a little room. I can roll the long option out and down for 4.15 right now and gain 41 weeks. 2-3 strikes oTM usually brings in 0.6-1 each week so this could be a good longer term trade.
Actually as I am typing this ERX going to parity, will roll it now.
New trade is a #fuzzy Jan 19 call 20 strike, rolled for 4.25 debit and the short 26 call rolled to next week 25.5 for 0.45. Total CB now 8.22 for 10 contracts. Work it down each week from here.
Trade wars should spike the price of commodities including oil so this should rebound.
Taking the ITM vertical debt spread idea a little farther, here is an example. Best returns appear to be on the leveraged products but higher risk, obvious with the higher premiums. Here is a TQQQ example. 10 point spread, 20 DTE, 10 lot $1350 profit, max loss 8650 if you don’t manage it, and it is 33 points ITM now. Could it hit the short strike, possibly but would require more than a Feb 6 event to get there.
The more I look at these, the more I like. Easy to roll to #fuzzy if needed. Set up a ladder and would be a good income stream. Thoughts, other comments, see anything I am missing? I have an ERX one on now, it was challenged last week but never hit the break even point. I will likely roll it 3 weeks out this Thurs. or Fri. to avoid the assignment fees as long as it will close at or a few pennies shy of 5. If not will let it expire.
If it works I think we should call it a #supercharger
Wife is already asleep, daughter has a friend over so looking at some possible trade ideas. Taking the ITM debit spread a step further here are some numbers to consider. Based on closing prices all 22 DTE so we are comparing apples to apples. TNA as example, this is leveraged but with excellent weekly premiums. 10 contracts on all to keep the numbers consistent. These are all about 6 points ITM on the call side or 6 points OTM for the puts.
50/60 vertical debit spread cost 8.95 for a 10 point spread at expiration. Max profit $1050. Max loss $8950 but this can be converted. 11.7% ROC for a 140.4% annualized return.
60 strike CC 58.22. Max profit $1780. Max loss 58,220 for 3% ROC or 36% annualized.
60 put requires full cash secured because leveraged. 54,471 at risk for $1020 max profit, 1.87% return or 22% annualized.
All could be rolled or hedged if needed.
I am going to experiment more with these, like the idea, the returns, limited risk and can be done in a smaller account. Also could set up a ladder for an income stream. Right now have ERX going, may add FAS and TNA in small contract size in a few weeks.
BTC the ANDV 108 call 15 DTE for 0.25. Sold for .95. Part of a strangle. Leaving the 95 put on still has .70 left.
When I roll the put will convert to #jadelizard. I violated my own rule of selling naked calls on individual names as a recovery for the dip(s). Strangles on ETF’s and indexes are ok because the entire ETF will not be bought out by another company. I had to pay up when Berkshire bought heinz a few years ago so learned my lesson on uncovered calls on a single company. Will unwind UTX and NSC calls as soon as they decay a little, hopefully over the long weekend.
#pietrades A bunch today since this is effectively expiration day. But it is nice out, first day can wear shorts here so going outside as soon as all the trades execute, still working 1 order.
GM Rolled 38.5 CC 22 DTE to 29 DTE for 0.17 credit. CB now 38.33. Taking forever to work this one back, will just be happy to scratch it so I can use the money somewhere else. For those following, I am taking this off the #pietrade list for a while, weekly premiums are not good enough for as much as it is moving around and to prone to steel tariff tweets.
FAS today 65 CC to next week 64 CC for 1.58 credit. CB 62.07
FAS today 64 CC to next week for 1.59 credit. CB 61.11
LNG Apr. 6 to Apr. 13 55 CC down to 54 CC for 0.52 credit. CB 53.27
ANDV 95/108 15 DTE strangle looking good, probably roll Monday to new week but #jadelizard the call side.
ERX 21/26 long debit 8 DTE should expire for full profit next week. If for some reason stays below 26 will convert to #fuzzy. I can add another 9 months to the long call for $3 and can sell $2 in premium each week, kind of a no brainer. However, this is also part of a deep ITM #syntheticcoveredcall experiment so my plan is to actually roll it next week and re-establish the position. On a percentage basis looks like a 13.7% return every month with moderate risk but very little work. Potentially a 160% annualized return so this is worth trying. I think this is what Chuck Hughes does to get some of his high returns. Buy deep ITM call with almost no time value, then sell ITM call that has a decent amount of time value left. Gives 10-20% downside protection and can still make max profit. I will keep one of these running for a while and report the results as it unfolds. Cheaper way to play a CC or #fuzzy maybe.
NSC 131/143 strangle 15 DTE. It moved around so much still at break even. Hope some theta decay will make some profits this weekend. Earnings late April so will only roll the put side.
UTX 122/132 strangle 36 DTE. Had to adjust. Same problem as NSC. Will let some of the premium suck out of it then only roll the put side. Earnings late April or I may #jadelizard both so there is no risk to the upside.
Hoppy Easter as the kids say! Hope everyone has a good long weekend.
I am still showing paper losses from the SVXY implosion. My net liq. keeps going down because of all the adjusting, only 1 positive week since Feb 6 but it was a good one. However, once these all close will have a nice bump finally and the theta decay is huge now, close to 800 per day, just need a few days of not whipsawing so it makes a difference. Once everything closes in 1-3 weeks will at least be positive for March.
Cheers, Chris
UTX widening out the strangle. Rolled the 24 DTE 125/130 strangle out to 38 DTE at 122/132 for 0.36 credit. 5 points wider and more time to manage if needed. I had pulled it in with the drop but now need to give it more room.
FAS CC 68 CC expired worthless on Fri. STO the 67 CC with 11 DTE for 0.95. Brings cost basis down to 66.25.
Hope to start taking some profits on the strangles later this week on ANDV, NSC, UTX (whipsaw on this one, I rolled the call down Friday and now rebounding.
Not done with the Mark Sebastain book but a few things about adjustments, may need them. Unfortunately I have a few trades that will take me a while to unwind so won’t be able to do these for a while.
Butterflies, adjust once you are at the long strike. Basically buy some more and the ratio will boost returns.
Credit spreads, leave enough space between the strikes so you can buy in between. Usually a 3-4 contract buy on a 10 lot will flatten your deltas. If it then keeps moving you have a back ratio and any further movement will increase your profits. Other option is just back ratio the spread, say buy back 1 short for every 3-4 long contracts.
Naked options, the best way we have found is to turn them into a #fuzzy.
Full disclosure, I have not had time or the opportunity to do any of these real time, but they look like they will work in thinkback. Most of the time it flattens your loss but don’t expect a huge profit on an adjustment except in the case of a continued move if you ratio it.
Some people may get margin calls over the weekend, Sunday open could be interesting and I might take a directional trade then. Have to see.
Have a good weekend.
Still about 40 points from the Feb lows but they ripped /ES down into the close. However, momentum shifted on the 15 minute on the last candle. I am not the directional guy so who knows what it means for futures open Sunday night 🙂
Rolled the 28 DTE 134 call down to 130 for 0.56 credit. Now have the 125/130 strangle.
Ever notice how loosing trades take up way more time and energy than trades you just leave alone?
Goal is to close early for profit in 1-3 weeks.
Did not watch the market today, big swings still.
Options Bistro 