#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 1st 2800/2820-2990/3010 condors for 1.30. IV 25.6%, SPX 2906, deltas -.07, +.04
Expiring: Apr 30th 2830/2850-3015/3035 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
Author Archives: Jeff
AMZN put spread
#Earnings
Sold to Open $AMZN May 1st 2325/2320 put spreads for 1.50. With stock at 2430, that’s 4.3% OTM.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias 2.04%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 292.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.77 to 305.23 (+/- 4.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 281.04 to 303.96
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 272.52 to 312.48
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 273.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias 1.04%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 2430.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 2276.91 to 2583.09 (+/- 6.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 2330.53 to 2529.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2109.00 to 2751.00
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2240.22
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte closed
#SPX7dteLong Yesterday an hour before market close,
Sold to close $SPX May 1st 2840/2860 call spreads for 18.40.
This morning, half hour before the open,
Sold to close May 1st 2830/2810 put spreads for 1.20.
Condors bought last Friday for 18.05, sold this week for 19.60.
SPX 7-dte long
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 6th 2920/2940-2950/2960 condors for 17.60. (SPX at 2945)
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 2830/2850-3015/3035 condors for 1.00, IV 23.5%, SPX 2842, deltas -.05, +.05.
SPX calls stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 29th 2960/2980 call spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
TSLA put spread
#Earnings Sold to Open $TSLA May 1st 720/715 put spreads for 1.25, when stock is at 787.00. -8.5% OTM. Frankly, I’m too nervous to sell the call side. In October, it was up 17.7% after one day, but 28.8% after 3 days.
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Avg (+ or -) 8.68%
Bias 1.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 792.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 705.26 to 878.74 (+/- 11.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 723.27 to 860.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 652.13 to 931.87
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 684.21
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Avg (+ or -) 5.60%
Bias 0.65%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 194.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.69 to 206.31 (+/- 6.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.13 to 204.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 157.22 to 230.78
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 214.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 29th 2765/2785-2960/2980 condors for 1.10, IV 25%, SPX 2882, deltas -.05, +.05.
Extra expiration on Thursday (end-of-month) so this starts four straight days of 1-dte.
SPX 7-dte closed
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 29th 2810/2830 call spreads for 18.00, filled overnight (forgot order was in, otherwise would have increased bid)
Just now, sold to close Apr 29th 2800/2780 put spread for 1.15.
Condors sold for 18.35 last Wednesday, sold for 19.15 today.
AMD earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 28, 2020 AC -5.97%
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +0.30%
July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44%
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%
May 1, 2017 AC -24.22% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 10.98%
Bias -1.05%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 56.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.97 to 61.03 (+/- 9.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 49.85 to 62.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 42.44 to 69.56
Based on UP max only (+19.9%): 67.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 3, 2020 AC -2.50%
Oct. 28, 2019 AC -2.19%
July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Avg (+ or -) 4.11%
Bias -0.38%, slightly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1270.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1199.46 to 1340.54 (+/- 5.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1217.78 to 1322.22
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1147.83 to 1392.17
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1174.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte and 1-dte
#SPX7dteLong Earlier in the day, STC $SPX Apr 27th 2840/2860 call spreads for 19.30. Condors bought for 18.35 last Monday.
Bought to Open $SPX May 4th 2860/2880-2890/2910 condors for 17.65. First time I have gotten under 18.00, meaning volatility is dropping.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Apr 27th 2710/2730/2935/2955 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.
GOOGL is tomorrow, here is FFIV earnings analysis
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 27, 2020 AC -5.04%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +5.50%
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.85%
Bias -0.93%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 121.47 to 138.53 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 124.99 to 135.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.5%): 120.25 to 139.75
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 137.93
NOTE: 5-day max moves are -7.97% and +4.33%, so slightly more bearish than the one-day.
Open to requests for other symbols.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/27/20
#FOMC Meeting Announcement on Wednesday
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 27th 2710/2730-2935/2955 condors for 1.05, IV 20.4%, SPX 2840, deltas -.04,+.04
Expiring: 2675/2695-2880/2900 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
SPX 7-dte long
#SPX7dteLong. Bought to open $SPX May 1st 2810/2830-2840/2860 condors for 18.05.
Earlier, sold to close Apr 24th 2840/2820 put spreads for 15.20, and 2850/2870 calls spreads for .30. Bought last week for 18.30. Second loss on this strategy… still learning a bit as I go, but could have waited a bit later in the morning and gotten 17.00+ for put side.
The SPX has been consolidating around 2800 for over a week, making this strategy less palatable.
SPX 1-dte
SPX1dte Sold to Open, 4 minutes after the market closed:
$SPX Apr 24th 2675/2695-2880/2900 condors for 1.00, IV 27.75%, SPX 2797, deltas: -.04,+.04
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 6, 2020 AC +4.05%
Oct. 22, 2019 AC -3.36%
July 18, 2019 AC +11.96%
April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Avg (+ or -) 13.25%
Bias 2.52%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 21.80 to 28.20 (+/- 12.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.69 to 28.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 14.64 to 35.36
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 18.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpire and new trade strategy
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Apr 22nd 2595/2615-2840/2860 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25.
Something I’ve been trying for a couple weeks but haven’t yet shared because it was in “test phase”… since volatility is here to stay for awhile, I have been buying one-week-out ATM condors with only 10-points between the shorts. The idea is that the market moves, and we most likely will be higher or lower a week from now.
So far it worked five times in a row… then the 6th one today was the first loss! But I’m going to stick with it as long as it continues to work and volatility is with us.
Today’s closing trade:
Last Wednesday, bought to Open $SPX Apr 22nd 2760/2780-2790/2810 condors for 18.35. (opening price has consistently been 18.25-18.40)
Today, sold to close the put side for 3.50 at 9:49am PT. Call side expired at 8.02. Total credit 11.52, so 6.80 loss.
All of the other ones I have done have either expired for 20.00, or closed a day or more early for 19.00+.
It is difficult to have much control over these trades unless you wish to go for pure speculation and leg out on ups and downs during the week. Otherwise you are at the mercy of the market on expiration day. Today was a bit nerve-wracking because SPX hovered in my dead zone for most of the morning. When it started trending upward, I took the profit on put side (first time I have legged out). Call side looked to be a 100% winner until the last 5 minutes, when it quickly turned from a 5.15 winner to a 6.80 loser. If I had exited before the drop i probably could have gotten 17.00 or so maximum, since the short 2810 call kept a lot of value until the last couple minutes of the day.
Bought to Open $SPX Apr 29th 2780/2800-2810/2830 condors for 18.40.
Also currently holding
Apr 24th 2820/2840-2850/2870
Apr 27th 2810/2830-2840/2860
LRCX earnings analysis
#Earnings $LRCX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +4.26%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +13.90%
July 31, 2019 AC -1.36%
April 24, 2019 AC +4.93%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +15.69% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +1.31%
July 26, 2018 AC +7.19%
April 17, 2018 AC -4.03%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -4.99% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +3.05%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.12%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.85%
Avg (+ or -) 5.81%
Bias 3.72%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 260.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 234.20 to 285.80 (+/- 9.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 244.90 to 275.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 219.21 to 300.79
Based on DOWN max only (-5.0%): 247.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Avg (+ or -) 5.75%
Bias 0.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 435.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 385.03 to 484.97 (+/- 11.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 409.98 to 460.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 376.10 to 493.90
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 390.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 22nd 2596/2615-2840/2860 condors for 1.25, IV 36%, SPX 2736, delats -.05, +.05
TQQQ longs closed
STC $TQQQ Jan 2021 90 calls for 6.50. Bought for 2.50 on March 16th
STC $TQQQ Jan 2021 85 calls for 7.80. Bought for 1.90 on March 27th
I will enter these again when market drops further.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte The bullish slant didn’t come through but got to keep the credit.
$SPX April 20th long call spread and short put spread expired, put on Friday for .55 credit.
SPX 1-dte Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte. Given the clearly bullish fervor that has gripped Wall Street, however irrational, I’m selling a more aggressive put spread and buying a call spread, all for a net credit.
Sold $SPX Apr 20th 2775/2755 put spreads
Bought $SPX Apr 20th 2790/2900 call spreads
Total credit: 0.55
IV 24%, SPX 2872, deltas: -.10, +.05
Expiring today: Apr 20th 2655/2675-2895/2915 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
Econ calendar for week of 4/20/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPY jumps 2% after hours
S&P 500 ETF jumps 2% after hours on report Gilead drug showing effectiveness treating coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 17th 2655/2675-2895/2915 condors for 1.20. IV: 33%, SPX 2795, deltas -.04, +.06
Earnings calendar update:
$PG announces tomorrow morning
ISRG earnings analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 23, 2020 AC -4.19%
Oct. 17, 2019 AC +6.96%
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -0.22%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 510.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.03 to 535.97 (+/- 5.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 487.28 to 532.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 468.33 to 551.67
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 474.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
$SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 15th 2705/2725-2940/2960 condors for 1.15, IV: 31.8%, SPX 2841, deltas -.05, +.04.
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 15, 2020 BO -0.18%
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias -0.24%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.70 to 187.30 (+/- 5.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 172.72 to 182.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 160.57 to 194.43
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 169.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
JPM earnings analysis
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 14, 2020 BO +1.16%
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +3.01%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.07%
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Avg (+ or -) 1.58%
Bias 0.48%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 99.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 91.39 to 106.61 (+/- 7.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 97.44 to 100.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 94.37 to 103.63
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 96.33
NOTE: 5-day maxes are virtually the same as 1-day: -2.8% and +4.6%. But projected move into Friday is higher than any of these previous moves (+/- 7.7%)
Open to requests for other symbols.
Episode 4 – Binger’s Delight
Bill Withers, Kenny Rogers & the First Edition, and more shows and movies than you can shake a Pick at for your quarantine streaming checklist.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/13/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Buying it this time
#SPX1dte After getting slammed for the third time this year on a Monday, I am going long the condor for this three-day weekend.
Bought to Open $SPX April 13th 2590/2610-2920/2940 condors for 1.55. Any gap open will give me at least a small profit. The tough part will be whether to wait and see if we get another 5%+ day…
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX April 8th 2505/2525-2800/2820 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 8th 2505/2525-2800/2820 condors for 1.25, IV: 43%, SPX 2664, deltas -.05, +.04.
Went a little farther out than usual delta-wise after yesterday’s beating.
SPXpire badly
#SPX1dte My Friday condor was blown out on the upside… I foolishly thought we had calmed down enough that we wouldn’t have a 7% up day. Full loss… sold for 1.75. This means I’ve done nothing but tread water on this strategy this year.
CCL
#Earnings TOS is showing that $CCL reported during market hours today, .22 per share vs. 0.33 consensus.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/6/20
#FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 6th 2290/2310-2605/2625 condors for 1.75, IV: 38%, SPX 2478, deltas -.05, +.07, OTM: -6.8%, +5.1%.
That’s the lowest IV I’ve sold since March 6th. Market down and so is VIX. We are getting complacent with big moves in the indices.
Expiring: Apr 3rd 2310/2330-2610/2630 condors, sold yesterday for 1.65.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — bigger loss than expected.
First monthly loss since Sept 2010.
Loss of 701,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 10K loss
Unemployment at 4.4%, up by 1.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.7%, up by 1.7%
Wages up 0.4%; up from +0.3% last month
Labor force participation 62.7%, down by 0.7, lowest since Aug 2018
February revised down from +273K to +214K
January revised up from +273K to +275K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 3rd 2310/2330-2610/2630 condors for 1.60, IV 54%, SPX 2482, deltas: -.06, +.06. Taking it early since I have to head out.
Another dismal record
6.64 million in weekly jobless claims, doubling last week’s record.
Previous record was set in October 1982 at 695,000.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX April 1st 2380/2400-2735/2755 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
WBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%
Avg (+ or -) 4.52%
Bias -2.53%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 44.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 40.21 to 48.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 42.49 to 46.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 38.80 to 50.20
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 46.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 1st 2380/2400-2735/2755 condors for 1.05, IV 54%, SPX 2581, deltas -.06, +.03.
I forgot about the quarterly expiration… could have done a trade yesterday!
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX March 27th 2380/2400-2760/2780 condors, sold yesterday for 1.80.
I tried a couple different SPX1dte orders for Monday but didn’t get filled and didn’t want to chase for reduced premium. IV on the Monday expiration was only 49% at the close, which is much lower than what we’ve been seeing in this correction.
TQQQ adding
#LongLEAPs BTO $TQQQ Jan 2021 85 calls for 1.90, adding to the 90-strike calls previously purchased.
Econ Calendar for week of 3/30/20
#Jobs report on Friday… should be a doozy!
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Adding to SVXY
#VXXgame BTO $SVXY Jan 2021 35 calls for 3.90, adding to position started yesterday.
TICK extremes
Not that it’s too significant, but this morning gave us the lowest $TICK reading (NYSE on TOS) on record (-1741), which goes back to March 2009. And Tuesday was the second highest on record (+1687).
SVXY long
#VXXGame Bought to Open $SVXY Jan 2021 35 calls for 4.65. Considering this was in the high 60’s just last month, I figure this has good chance of profiting. I will scale into more when the market retests the lows.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 27th 2380/2400-2760/2780 condors for 1.80. IV: 66%, SPX 2592, deltas: -.06, +.06, OTM -7.4%, +6.5%
Jobless claims soar to record high
3.28 million in weekly jobless claims, almost FIVE times previous record
Previous record was set in October 1982 at 695,000.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX March 24th 2210/2230-2655/2675 condors, sold yesterday for 1.80.
So much for today’s rally?
Stocks tumble into the close after Bernie Sanders threatens to put a hold on the coronavirus stimulus bill; Nasdaq turns negative and Dow up only 480 points after surging 1,300 earlier https://t.co/kumM5Z3mLD pic.twitter.com/tw7O9qsyCw
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) March 25, 2020
Hey, anyone remember earnings trades?
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Avg (+ or -) 6.79%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 41.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.64 to 46.36
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 38.22 to 43.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 35.53 to 46.47
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 36.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX March 25th 2210/2230-2655/2675 condors for 1.80. IV: 79.84%, SPX 2440, deltas -.06, +.06. OTM: -8.6%, +8.8%.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: 1975/2000-2550/2575 condors, sold Friday for 2.25.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte I didn’t sell a Monday condor because I’ve been bitten twice recently. I also maintain that we still have farther to go down.
Expired this morning: $SPX March 19th 2125/2150-2575/2600 (monthlys) condors, sold for 2.20 Thursday morning.
Expired at the close: $SPX March 20th 2170/2190-2635/2655 condors, sold Thursday afternoon for 1.85.
Econ calendar for week of 3/23/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Episode 3 – Podcast Distancing
Showbiz shutdown / Top 5 “Coming Soon” picks / Streaming picks: “Spenser Confidential” & “Hunters” / Corrections / New Music picks – young new artists / Old Music pick – INXS / Guess these songs – random number generation // Find more details and playlists at http://thepickcast.com
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX 2170/2190-2635/2655 condors for 1.85. IV: 84.2%, SPX 2406, deltas: -.07, +.06. OTM: -9.0% and +9.5%.
Couldn’t have picked a better outcome for my monthly condor put on this morning… placed the trade when we were flat on the day ended as close to flat as we can expect in this market. So I’m leaving the trade to settle in the morning as I do not fear +9% gaps.
Gap opens, continued
As a follow up to my first post from 2/25 (linked here: https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-i5m), gap opens over 2% have continued to happen frequently after their nearly 6-year absence. Here are the ones we have had thus far.
From Left to right: Gap Open each day / Date (if over 2%) / SPX move at the close
SPX 1-dte monthlys
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 19th 2125/2150-2575/2600 condors for 2.20. These are MONTHLY contracts that stop trading tonight, but settle at the open tomorrow. I will need to decide at the close today whether to close or allow to expire in the morning, risking a gap open that could breach my strikes. Because of the funky expiration on these, I have avoided them for this strategy, but with SPX flat at the moment and juicy premium available, it’s worth the risk this time.
IV: 109.60%, SPX: 2400, deltas: -.06, +.06. OTM: -10.4%, +7.3%
Fun facts for today:
1. The Dow took 103 years to reach 10,000. It has just dropped 10,000 in less than 30 days.
2. The VIX has put in a higher intraday high 5 days in a row, despite two of those days being strong UP days for the market.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX March 18th 2220/2240-2740/2760 condors, sold yesterday for 1.95.
Circuit breaker HIT again!
Crazy times. I don’t really see why this should end, however. The entire world is coming to a halt. Some businesses are closing entirely, unable to weather even a month being closed. Layoffs are piling up. Our country will rack up another $2T in debt probably before the end of this month. This is an unprecedented event… I feel the indexes could easily be cut in half, meaning 1500 by the time we get to May or June. But this is only my personal speculation… I just base it on what I think SHOULD happen when most of the world is shut down.
The VIX is up today but not as dramatically as VXX and UVXY. Futures backwardation is quite dramatic.
UVXY closed
This market is relentless. Welcome to the first Bear Market since 2009!
BTC $UVXY March 27th 50/60-130/140 condors for 3.825. Sold yesterday for 3.65.
I’m not sure how I got this to be only a small loss when UVXY has risen over 30% since when I sold it yesterday. But we could hit 130 today so I no longer like this trade. Lucky that I was able to exit so easily but the difference between the two call strikes was only 3.13, while the put side deflated from yesterday dramatically.
