#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Sept 52 calls for 4.80.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Feb 21st 3295/3315-3405/3425 condors for .80, IV: 11.99%, SPX 3371, deltas -.06, +.05
OLED put spread
#Earnings A bullish position for a stock that has bullish tendency on earnings.
Sold to Open $OLED Feb 21st 170/165 put spreads for 1.70.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 27, 2019 BO -4.29%
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30% Biggest UP
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Avg (+ or -) 4.00%
Bias 0.76%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.30 to 171.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.41 to 171.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.7%): 152.38 to 177.62
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 177.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +15.27%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -1.64%
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Avg (+ or -) 13.81%
Bias 7.27%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 195.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 153.41 to 202.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 135.51 to 220.49
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 141.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 21st 3395 calls for .30. Condors sold for .95 yesterday.
SEDG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SEDG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -0.01%
Aug. 6, 2019 AC +25.11% Biggest UP
May 6, 2019 AC +22.69%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +1.46%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -7.99%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -13.94% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2018 AC +16.53%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +24.25%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +19.38%
May 9, 2017 AC +11.04%
Feb. 14, 2017 AC +4.15%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -0.71%
Avg (+ or -) 12.27%
Bias 8.50%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.93 to 138.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.34 to 138.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.1%): 92.49 to 154.51
Based on DOWN max only (-13.9%): 106.28
Open to requests for other symbols.
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.29%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC -15.29%
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Avg (+ or -) 11.01%
Bias -1.74%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.10 to 59.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 47.61 to 59.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 39.10 to 67.90
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 67.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
STMP earnings analysis
#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +27.46%
May 8, 2019 AC -55.75%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Avg (+ or -) 20.57%
Bias -4.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.11 to 113.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 73.87 to 112.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 39.28 to 146.72
Based on UP max only (+35.9%): 126.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
HLF closed
#Earnings Bought to close $HLF Feb 21st 37 #ShortPuts for .05. Sold yesterday for .73
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 19th 3305/3325-3395/3415 condors for .95, IV 10.00%, SPX 3369, deltas -.07, +.07
Expiring: Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors, sold Friday for 1.05
HLF earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +11.67%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%
Avg (+ or -) 5.75%
Bias 1.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.89 to 42.11
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 36.76 to 41.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.00%): 33.92 to 44.08
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 36.36
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte & expirations
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors for 1.05, IV 7.86%, SPX 3372, deltas -.07, +.06.
Winners:
Expiring: Feb 14th 3310/3330-3405/3425 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Expiring: $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.416
Losers:
Expiring: $YELP 31 short puts and 39 short calls. Calendars bought for .303 total…. long positions remain for next Friday, but a long shot.
$TAP #DoubleCalendars closed for .01 debit. Lost total of .31.
The Hall of Rotating Presidents
In honor of Monday’s holiday, Options Bistro presents the third annual Hall of Rotating Presidents. If you don’t like the President who appears in the upper right, just click “Home/REFRESH” (or refresh your browser) and a new one will appear!
Have a great three-day weekend!
Econ Calendar for week of 2/17/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 14th 3310/3330-3405/3425 condors for 1.05, IV 10.76%, SPX 3378, deltas -.07, +.07
ROKU earnings analysis
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters (its entire history).
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -16.01%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 23.13%
Bias 10.30%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 140.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.10 to 162.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 107.62 to 172.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (54.9%): 63.10 to 216.90
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 108.79
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA calls
#ShortCalls Sold to Open $TSLA Feb 28th 1100 calls for 5.00. Will look to add a put side on next pull back.
YELP “double calendar”
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar in quotes because I placed them near the expected moves rather than ATM. So maybe call it #EMDC. YELP tends to move, but rather not risk the $4+ to buy a Straddle.
Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 39 #CallCalendar for .17
Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 31 #PutCalendar for .133
You may be able to get these a bit cheaper. I bid below mid-price and was filled instantly on both.
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -24.23% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -10.32%
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Avg (+ or -) 12.25%
Bias -0.70%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 232.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 208.47 to 256.53
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.45 to 261.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.54 to 289.46
Based on UP max only (+19.4%): 278.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +15.43%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC +5.20%
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Avg (+ or -) 14.21%
Bias -1.72%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 35.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.81 to 39.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 30.28 to 40.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 25.54 to 45.06
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.91
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Avg (+ or -) 6.44%
Bias 0.03%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 270.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 251.44 to 288.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 252.62 to 287.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 219.38 to 320.63
Based on UP max only (+17.8%): 318.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
TAP dance
#Earnings . Bought to close $TAP Feb 14th 58 calls for .10. This will clear the way for a bigger profit if stock recovers. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .17 and .20
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 12th 3385 calls for .40. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit this morning.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Avg (+ or -) 2.75%
Bias 0.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 221.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.84 to 232.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 215.41 to 227.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 207.48 to 235.52
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 208.43
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC +0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias -0.39%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.61 to 68.39
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.63 to 67.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 59.18 to 70.82
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 59.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
Electrified
Looks like $SHOP is trying to pull a $TSLA this morning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 3295/3315-3385/3405 condors for 1.05. IV 10.30%, SPX 3357, deltas -.08, +.07
SHOP put spread
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads for 1.40. Filled when stock hit 493.50, so short strike is 5.8% OTM. Stock has dropped more than that only twice on last 12 earnings.
TSLA closed
Closed final batch this morning for .65… Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles sold last Wednesday for 9.82.
Watching to sell another one, although premium has come in quite a bit. Need another large move or the excitement may be over.
TAP earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 BO -3.09%
July 31, 2019 BO -5.14%
May 1, 2019 BO -7.54%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO -9.44%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Avg (+ or -) 5.65%
Bias -1.12%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.76 to 61.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 55.05 to 61.65
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 49.36 to 67.34
Based on UP max only (+9.9%): 64.15
Open to requests for other symbols.
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Avg (+ or -) 6.18%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 497.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 451.53 to 543.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 466.75 to 528.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 43765 to 557.35
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 452.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
EXAS earnings analysis
#Earnings $EXAS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 AC -7.28%
July 30, 2019 AC -2.35%
April 30, 2019 AC -1.48%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +10.51%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +10.32%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -12.66% Biggest DOWN
April 26, 2018 AC +11.63%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -5.82%
Oct. 30, 2017 AC +9.76%
July 25, 2017 AC +6.21%
April 27, 2017 BO +26.63% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +12.55%
Avg (+ or -) 9.77%
Bias 4.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 97.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.87 to 105.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.53 to 106.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.6%): 71.17 to 122.83
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 84.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpired
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.25.
More all-time highs. Who could have guessed?
TSLA closing
BTC $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 1.47. Sold for 9.82 last Wednesday. Holding one more per account until tomorrow or Wednesday, then I will look for another strangle.
When the stock peaked at 820 this morning, and the Feb 21st 1100 calls were going for 11.00. Then, when the stock bottomed near 750.00 a couple hours later, that option was under 4.50. So still, incredible swings in option volatility.
UAA earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. I chose $UAA over $UA due to higher daily volume.
Nov. 4, 2019 BO -18.92%
July 30, 2019 BO -12.24%
May 2, 2019 BO +3.53%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +6.88%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +27.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 BO +4.55%
May 1, 2018 BO +1.52%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO +17.35%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -23.70%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -4.52%
April 27, 2017 BO +9.94%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO -25.74% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 13.05%
Bias -1.14%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.22 to 23.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 18.00 to 23.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 14.97 to 26.43
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 15.37
NOTE: 5-day max moves are -28.47% and +30.29%
Open to requests for other symbols.
Episode 1 – Billie Eilish, Rush, Grammys in review, Shakira vs. J.Lo
New Pick: Billie Eilish / Old Pick: Rush / Movie Picks: Oscar best picture / Grammy Picks – Blood Sweat & Tears vs. The Beatles vs. Milli Vanilli / Superbowl Pick: Shakira vs J.Lo / Bourbon Picks. Go to https://thepickcast.com/ for playlists and more info.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors for 1.25. IV: 9.12%, SPX 3328, deltas: -.07, .08.
Expiring: Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
Selling long Feb 7th 3225 calls or letting them expire for a (hopeful) credit, after having covered the short 3300’s yesterday. Legging out worked against me this time.
Closing CTSH
#Earnings Sold to close $CTSH Feb07/Feb14 65 call calendars for .02. #DoubleCalendars bought for .28 on Wednesday. Long puts will be lottery ticket for next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 2/10/20
#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday morning.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
TSLA strangle
Bought to close part of my $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 3.467. Sold Wednesday for 9.825.
Probably will wait for Monday before closing more.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.
January Jobs Report
#Jobs — beating expectations
+225,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 158K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, up by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.4%, up by 0.2%
December revised up from 145K to 147K
November revised up from 256K to 261K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 for 1.10. IV: 10.46%, SPX SPX 3343, deltas: -.07, .08
TSLA strangle
Yesterday morning I sold the $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825. When the stock peaked around 780 today, these two options were about equal in value… despite the put being 230 points away, and the call being 520 points away! Stock action is indicating that the super crazy moves may be subsiding, despite the heavy skew to the call side. I’m looking to sell another one in the Feb 21st expiration, but I will likely wait until tomorrow. Would like to see this one get at least to 4.90 (50%) before I consider closing.
Since the price target is now $7,000 in 5 years, would love to get a long LEAP but the highest strikes are 1880 and going for 40.00-ish.
PINS earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PINS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%
Avg (+ or -) 16.37%
Bias -3.96%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 22.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.79 to 25.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 19.03 to 26.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (18.6%): 18.51 to 26.99
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 18.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
Earnings chart error: BIDU
$BIDU is reporting on Feb 27.
UBER earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $UBER reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Nov. 4, 2019 AC -9.84%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC -6.79%
May 30, 2019 AC +1.53%
Avg (+ or -) 6.05%
Bias -5.03%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.88 to 40.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 34.76 to 39.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (9.8%): 33.36 to 40.64
Based on UP max only (+1.5%): 37.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
Living on the edge
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 7th 3300 call for 37.80.
This was the short spread I sold Monday for 4.30. I must have been high on hopium the next day when I was clearly wrong and didn’t close it.
And today I must be higher because I’m trying to leg out. But if the pattern repeats itself, we get a small sell off from morning gap-up down to flat, then we rally rest of day. So hopefully now my long 3325 calls will rally higher and I will lessen the closing price of the spread from its current 20.00 down closer to 10.00.
TWTR closing
#Earnings Based on pre-market I set my first order for 3 of my 9 options to close too cheaply.
Sold (3) $TWTR Feb 7th 33.5 calls for 3.50. Then a few minutes later sold (5) for 4.60. Only 1 left.
#LongStrangles bought for 3.05 yesterday.
TWTR earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $TWTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2019 BO -20.80% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2019 BO +8.91%
April 23, 2019 BO +15.64%
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -9.83%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +15.46%
July 27, 2018 BO -20.54%
April 25, 2018 BO -2.36%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +12.15%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO +18.49% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 BO -14.12%
April 26, 2017 BO +7.91%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO -12.33%
Avg (+ or -) 13.21%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.93 to 36.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 28.86 to 37.64
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.8%): 26.33 to 40.17
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 39.40
Open to requests for other symbols.
CTSH earnings analysis
#Earnings $CTSH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.75%
July 31, 2019 AC +1.94%
May 2, 2019 AC -11.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -3.90%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -6.37%
May 7, 2018 BO -5.24%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +3.54%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO -2.81%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.08%
May 5, 2017 BO +4.06%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO +4.94% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.36%
Bias -0.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 64.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.81 to 67.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.07 to 67.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 57.74 to 72.06
Based on UP max only (+4.9%): 68.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
What have I done
This premium is almost as insane as the stock’s move. Finally jumping in; it’s hard to believe I can’t be confident in this trade!
Sold $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 5, 2019 BO +6.93%
Aug. 6, 2019 BO +0.23%
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Avg (+ or -) 3.57%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 367.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 348.22 TO 386.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 354.39 TO 380.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 341.81 TO 393.19
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 344.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 5th 3225/3245-3340/3360 condors for .95, IV 12.89%, SPX 3304, deltas -.06, .06
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 22, 2019 AC -5.15%
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Avg (+ or -) 7.84%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 880.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 824.29 to 935.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 811.02 to 948.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 664.93 to 1095.07
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 751.70
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Yes, I’m going for a bearish trade again. My sentiment was accurate last week but buying a put spread was the wrong play. It did carry less risk, but had I sold a call spread like this it would have worked.
Sold $SPX Feb 7th 3300/3325 call spreads for 4.30.
CMI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -1.61%
July 30, 2019 BO -5.05%
April 30, 2019 BO +1.30%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -0.31%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Avg (+ or -) 3.15%
Bias -0.35%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 157.24 to 170.76
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.84 to 169.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 154.01 to 173.99
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 154.75
FYI, 5-day Max moves are +7.95% and -9.58%.
Open to requests for other symbols.
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 28, 2019 AC -2.19%
July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Avg (+ or -) 4.02%
Bias -0.29%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1470.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1390.91 to 1549.09
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1410.92 to 1529.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1328.59 to 1611.41
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1359.75
FYI, 5-day Max moves are +8.10% and -8.23%, so not much difference.
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 3rd 3105 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.25. I’ll let the 3285 call side expire.
VXX shorts
#VXXGame First VXX shorts of the year: Sold $VXX Apr 18 calls for 2.00. Against long 25 and 27 calls.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 3rd 3085/3105-3285/3305 condors for 1.25. IV 18.15%, SPX 3218, deltas -.06, .06
(Hopefully) expiring: Jan 31st 3210/3190-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
DRIPity rocketing
#ContangoETFs Following a few folks, filled forthwith: March 20th 184 calls for 3.05.
Highs and lows
#VIXIndicator New $VIX highs, new $SPX lows today. SPX now negative on year, lowest levels since January 6th. Highest VIX since Oct 10th.
Econ Calendar for week of 2/3/20
#Jobs report is Friday before the open
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
UVXY sold
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY March 20th 15 calls for 2.14. My first short positions of the year against 25 and 35 long calls bought in recent weeks.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 31st 3190/3210-3305/3325 condors for 1.30, IV 13.99%, SPX 3267, deltas -.08, .06
SPX bearish closed
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 31st 3200/3180 put spreads for .80. Bought Tuesday for 2.65.
HSY closed
#Earnings STC $HSY Jan31/Feb07 150/152.5 #DoubleCalendar for .417. Bought yesterday for .69.
AMZN IB
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN Jan 31st 1840/1860/1880 #IronButterfly for 18.50. Narrowed to 20 from my usual 30-wide to reduce risk.
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold $DRIP June 19th 150 calls for 12.75.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Avg (+ or -) 3.77%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 1865.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1798.07 to 1931.93
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1794.61 to 1935.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1618.63 to 2111.37
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1719.34
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Jan 29th 3195/3215-3320/3340 condors, sold for 1.00 yesterday.
TSLA call butterfly
#Earnings A cheap long shot: Bought to open $TSLA Jan 31st 592.5/600/607.5 #CallButterfly for .281 (avg price).
AAPL call side closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Jan 31st 335/337.5 call spreads for .149 (avg price). Sold condors yesterday for .61. I’m letting 290/287.5 put side expire.
