Jeff 12:23 pm on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%

Avg (+ or -) 8.35%
Bias -0.11%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 586.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 524.30 to 648.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 537.73 to 635.77
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 483.13 to 690.37
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 506.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:19 am on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

HSY earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $HSY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 BO -2.23%
July 25, 2019 BO +2.01%
April 25, 2019 BO +4.58%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +0.49%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -4.92%
July 26, 2018 BO +7.35% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO -0.26%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.94% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -5.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.34%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.88%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +1.31%

Avg (+ or -) 3.05%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 151.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.75 to 157.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 146.88 to 156.12
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 140.36 to 162.64
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 142.50

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 7:15 am on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

MCD closed

#Earnings It’s going in the wrong direction, so gotta close.

Sold to close $MCD Jan31/Feb07 212.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.151 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .839

Jeff 7:04 am on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%

Avg (+ or -) 5.24%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 208.85 to 231.15
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 208.47 to 231.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 178.29 to 261.71
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 243.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +1.96%
July 18, 2019 AC +0.14%
April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%

Avg (+ or -) 2.24%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 166.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 160.28 to 172.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 162.77 to 170.23
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 155.83 to 177.17
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 163.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:09 pm on Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 29th 3195/3215-3320/3340 condors for 1.00, IV 14.62%, SPX 3280. Short deltas -.06, .06

Jeff 10:00 am on Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

MCD earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $MCD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 22, 2019 BO -5.04% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2019 BO +0.53%
April 30, 2019 BO +0.22%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO -0.21%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO +6.31% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 BO -1.73%
April 30, 2018 BO +5.77%
Jan. 30, 2018 BO -2.97%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +0.33%
July 25, 2017 BO +4.75%
April 25, 2017 BO +5.56%
Jan. 23, 2017 BO -0.71%

Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 212.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 205.74 to 218.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 205.97 to 218.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 198.62 to 225.38
Based on DOWN max only (-5.0%): 201.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 7:03 am on Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AAPL condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $AAPL Jan 31st 287.5/290-335/337.5 condors for .61. Short strikes outside of previous max moves.

Jeff 6:55 am on Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%

Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 312.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.74 to 330.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 299.22 to 325.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 291.16 to 333.84
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 291.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:51 am on Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX bearish

#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Jan 31st 3200/3180 put spreads for 2.65.

Jeff 3:17 pm on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.

Jeff 12:53 pm on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

UVXY hedges

#VXXGame Bought $UVXY March 20th 35 calls for .31. Adding more longs to sell against. Already sold March 25 calls last week, as well as VXX March 25 calls.

I haven’t started selling yet. I’m going to wait for higher volatility…. that may mean I miss out on this current pop, but that’s okay. I’d prefer to wait and possibly miss out, than sell in the early days of a bigger correction.

Jeff 10:19 am on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

MMM earnings analysis

#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 BO -4.07%
July 25, 2019 BO -0.71%
April 25, 2019 BO -12.94% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%

Avg (+ or -) 3.88%
Bias -2.02%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.30 to 185.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 170.62 to 184.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 154.53 to 200.46
Based on UP max only (+5.9%): 187.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:19 am on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

WHR earnings analysis

#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 22, 2019 AC +0.95%
July 22, 2019 BO +0.10%
April 22, 2019 AC +0.40%
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%

Avg (+ or -) 5.61%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 147.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 138.29 to 155.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 138.75 to 155.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 125.66 to 168.34
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 161.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:10 am on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

FFIV earnings analysis

#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +5.50%
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias -1.20%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.15 to 138.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 125.60 to 136.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.3%): 120.19 to 141.81
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 138.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:37 am on Monday, January 27, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 27th 3215/3195 put spreads for 1.95. Condors sold for 1.15 on Friday.

Jeff 12:53 pm on Friday, January 24, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 27th 3195/3215-3330/3350 condors for 1.15. IV 11.20%, SPX 3290.

Expiring (a little sweaty) Jan 24th 3265/3285-3350/3370, sold yesterday for .80

Jeff 11:32 am on Friday, January 24, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

CTXS closed

#Earnings Sold to close $CTXS Jan24/Jan31 119 #DoubleCalendar for .05. Bought for .47 on Wednesday. I had three Dub Cal orders working that day. This was the only one that filled, and the only of the three that was a loser! (I closed only the call side. Long puts are a lottery ticket for next week)

Jeff 10:29 am on Friday, January 24, 2020
Tags: Brexit ( 4 ), FOMC ( 20 ), GDP ( 2 )

Econ Calendar for week of 1/27/20

#FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday
#GDP numbers on Thursday
#Brexit Day on Friday

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 10:19 am on Friday, January 24, 2020
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

DRIP dip

#ContangoETFs Sold $DRIP March 125 calls for 3.25. This one is on a steady uptrend.

Oil is on track for its worst week since May on fears coronavirus will hit growth. https://t.co/dRu3RW8mqW

— CNBC (@CNBC) January 24, 2020

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 12:24 pm on Thursday, January 23, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

SWKS earnings analysis

#Earnings $SWKS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 12, 2019 AC -0.44%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +0.46%
May 2, 2019 AC -3.51%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +11.49%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -8.08% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2018 AC -5.35%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.28%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC +10.44%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -4.41%
July 20, 2017 AC -0.15%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.28%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +13.01% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.49%
Bias 1.12%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 120.94 to 135.06
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 120.97 to 135.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 111.35 to 144.65
Based on DOWN max only (-8.1%): 117.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:20 pm on Thursday, January 23, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 3265/3285-3350/3370 condors for .80, IV 9.14%, SPX 3323.

Jeff 7:01 am on Thursday, January 23, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

UAL closed

#Earnings Sold to close $UAL Jan24/Jan31 85 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought for .46 on Tuesday.

$CTXS from yesterday not looking good; need a pullback.

Jeff 6:59 am on Thursday, January 23, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 17, 2019 AC +6.96%
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%

Avg (+ or -) 4.44%
Bias 0.55%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 612.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 594.19 to 630.81
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 585.28 to 639.72
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 562.46 to 662.54
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 569.63

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 10:58 am on Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalemndar, DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

CTXS earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $CTXS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.97%
July 24, 2019 AC -5.60%
April 24, 2019 AC -0.93%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -6.25%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +2.12%
July 25, 2018 AC +3.45%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.75% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +0.72%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -1.49%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -2.02%
April 26, 2017 AC -3.18%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -6.49% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias -1.41%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 119.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.03 to 124.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 115.14 to 122.86
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.5%): 111.28 to 126.72
Based on UP max only (+4.8%): 124.65

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemndar, #doublecalendar

Jeff 12:39 pm on Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 3265/3285-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 8.61%, SPX 3322

Jeff 12:16 pm on Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

UAL earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 AC +2.07%
July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78%
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%

Avg (+ or -) 5.64%
Bias 0.03%, no bias bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.38 to 89.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.21 to 89.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 74.74 to 95.26
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 92.46

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.63% and +11.42%

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 10:23 am on Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Earlier, BTC $SPX Jan 21st 3290 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.00.

Jeff 7:23 am on Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 AC -5.52%
July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%

Avg (+ or -) 5.44%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.81 to 144.19
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 130.49 to 145.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 125.77 to 150.23
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 127.48

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -11.04% and +10.60%

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:17 am on Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%

Avg (+ or -) 5.78%
Bias 1.61%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 337.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 311.53 to 363.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 318.01 to 356.99
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 291.80 to 383.20
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 302.84

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.30% and +20.66%

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:43 pm on Friday, January 17, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

PPG closed

#Earnings Sold to close $PPG Jan17/Jan24 131 #DoubleCalendar for .12. Bought Wednesday for .50.

Several chances to get out at small profit or breakeven. The rage of profitability really decreases quickly as we approach expiration. I need to take money and run and quit waiting for the long shot of a jackpot.

Jeff 11:53 am on Friday, January 17, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 21st 3270/3290-3350/3370 condors for 1.00, IV 5.44%, SPX 3323.

Expiring today: Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors, sold yesterday for .90

Jeff 11:15 am on Friday, January 17, 2020

Econ Calendar for week of 1/20/20

Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 7:25 am on Friday, January 17, 2020
Tags: CallButterfly ( 17 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

JPM closed

#Earnings Sold to close $JPM Jan 17th 138 calls for .40 (large accounts), and 38/40 call spreads for .35 (smaller accounts). #CallButterfly bought for .33 on Monday, so all about breakeven after commissions.

Jeff 6:54 am on Friday, January 17, 2020
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

PNC closed

#Earnings #Assignment On Tuesday I bought $PNC Jan17/Jan24 160 #DoubleCalendar for .50.

Stock dropped too much so trade was a loser. Assigned last night on the puts at 160.00.
Today, sold long puts for 6.60 and stock for 153.53. So I managed to squeeze .13 out of closing the trade.

Jeff 12:07 pm on Thursday, January 16, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

SLB earnings analysis

#Earnings $SLB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 18, 2019 BO +1.31%
July 19, 2019 BO -0.18%
April 18, 2019 BO -3.90% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +8.12% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
July 20, 2018 BO -1.24%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.49%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -2.09%
July 21, 2017 BO -0.73%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.18%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO -0.81%

Avg (+ or -) 1.85%
Bias -0.26%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.06 to 40.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 37.89 to 39.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 35.47 to 41.73
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 37.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:04 pm on Thursday, January 16, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

STT earnings analysis

#Earnings $STT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 18, 2019 BO +6.09%
July 19, 2019 BO +6.73% Biggest UP
April 23, 2019 BO -4.34%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +0.35%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -8.53% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2018 BO -7.40%
April 20, 2018 BO -4.33%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO +2.92%
Oct. 23, 2017 BO -2.97%
July 26, 2017 BO +1.88%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.63%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO -3.37%

Avg (+ or -) 4.38%
Bias -0.78%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 80.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.01 to 83.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.50 to 83.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 73.18 to 86.82
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 85.38

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:59 am on Thursday, January 16, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1 dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors for .90, IV 8.32%, SPX 3308

Jeff 6:38 am on Thursday, January 16, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

FAST earnings analysis

#Earnings $FAST reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 11, 2019 BO +17.15% Biggest UP
July 11, 2019 BO -2.84%
April 11, 2019 BO +5.04%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +5.94%
Oct. 10, 2018 BO -7.13%
July 11, 2018 BO +10.05%
April 11, 2018 BO -6.19%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -5.84%
Oct. 11, 2017 BO -0.78%
July 12, 2017 BO -1.99%
April 12, 2017 BO -8.04% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO +5.80%

Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.93%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.63 to 39.37
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 34.63 to 39.37 (exactly the same)
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.2%): 30.65 to 43.35
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 34.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:45 pm on Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

VXX longs

#VXXGame . Bought to open $UVXY March 20th 25 calls for .32, and $VXX March 20th 25 calls for .24.

These are longs I can later sell against, assuming a volatility spike will be coming before too long.

Jeff 12:14 pm on Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX long closed

#SPX1dte SOld to close $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spread for .95. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Have been trying to exit all day… got as high as 3.00, but kept reversing before I was filled. My timing in January has been atrocious, so not letting this one fail completely. I sold the 3250/3225 put spread against it for 1.90. That one is currently profitable and I think will be fine to leave for tomorrow.

Expiring today: Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00

Jeff 8:56 am on Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

VIX hedges

#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX March 17th 17/20 call spreads for .52.
Also, added to Feb 18th 19/22 for .28. First bought on Nov 18th for .60.

Jeff 7:05 am on Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

PPG earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $PPG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 17, 2019 BO +1.91%
July 18, 2019 BO +0.33%
April 18, 2019 BO +2.10%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +4.70% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2018 BO +0.88%
July 19, 2018 BO -0.33%
April 19, 2018 BO -3.13%
Jan. 18, 2018 BO +3.41%
Oct. 19, 2017 BO +1.26%
July 20, 2017 BO -6.05% Biggest DOWN
April 20, 2017 BO +1.30%
Jan. 19, 2017 BO +0.83%

Avg (+ or -) 2.19%
Bias 0.60%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 125.90 to 136.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.14 to 133.86
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 123.07 to 138.93
Based on UP max only (+4.7%): 137.16

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 12:57 pm on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors for 1.00, IV 9.28%, SPX 3281

Jeff 10:54 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: RiskReversal ( 86 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Risky Risk/Reversal

#SPX1dte Okay, so I’m taking a shot that this weakness it temporary and bullish trend will continue this week.

Sold to open $SPX Jan 17th 3250/3225 put spreads for 1.90.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spreads for 1.60.

I’m not going to look for my call spread to become ITM… just any modest increase in price will be good enough to close it.

#RiskReversal

Jeff 10:41 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 17th 3320/3345 call spreads for 2.25. Paid 2.35 for the condor yesterday.

I did this literally 30 seconds before the huge spike down. Unbelievable!

My plan was to allow put side to expire, add a closer put spread and BUY a call spread. I may still do this, but have to watch for awhile to see what happens. Market is bullish, and I truly don’t understand how it has reacted or will react to the volatile trade situation. No one does.

Jeff 10:39 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020

News flash

CHINA TARIFFS TO STAY UNTIL AFTER U.S. ELECTION DESPITE DEAL

Jeff 7:17 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

PNC earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 BO -0.28%
July 17, 2019 BO +0.66%
April 12, 2019 BO +3.09% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72%

Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias -0.53%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.41 to 164.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 157.82 to 162.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 151.07 to 168.93
Based on UP max only (+3.1%): 164.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 7:05 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%

Avg (+ or -) 2.73%
Bias -0.27%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 245.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.02 to 253.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 238.32 to 251.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 221.63 to 268.37
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 233.46

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:09 am on Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning reinstated

#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.

Jeff 1:02 pm on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), ShortStraddle ( 46 )

BBBY closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $BBBY stock for 15.00. 16.5 #ShortStraddle sold last week for 1.87, calls closed for .01, assigned Friday, so ending profit of .36.

Jeff 12:41 pm on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (Friday PM) 3195/3220-3320/3345 condors for 2.35. Strikes at .10 delta.

Jeff 12:30 pm on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: CallButterfly ( 17 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

JPM butterfly

#Earnings Bought to open $JPM Jan 17th 38/40/42 #CallButterfly for .33. Needs to land near 140 on Friday for best profit. Open Interest at that strike are large, and it’s a +2.3% move from now, which is a reasonable expectation…. if we get a bullish move.

Jeff 10:39 am on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

JPM earnings analysis (corrected)

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 BO +3.01%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.07%
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%

Avg (+ or -) 1.52%
Bias 0.42%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.71 to 140.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 133.93 to 138.07
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 129.64 to 142.36
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 132.33

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:59 am on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX long

#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX 3290/3305 call spreads for .25. Bought for .80 on Friday. Didn’t get the surge I hoped for, and Friday’s lower close didn’t help. Also should expire today: 3240/3220 put spreads, sold for .70. So I’ll net .15 for the day!

Jeff 6:24 am on Monday, January 13, 2020
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), Earnings ( 3,114 ), ShortStrangle ( 18 )

BBBY assigned

#Earnings #Assignment Assigned $BBBY shares at 16.50. Need price above 14.63 to breakeven from #ShortStrangle

Jeff 11:55 am on Friday, January 10, 2020
Tags: RiskReversal ( 86 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX risk reversal

#SPX1dte Took a .10 debit to place this bullish #RiskReversal for Monday:

Sold $SPX Jan 13th 3240/3220 put spread for .70.
Bought $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3305 call spreads for .80

Expiring:
Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads, sold yesterday for .70

Jeff 5:39 am on Friday, January 10, 2020
Tags: Jobs ( 140 )

December Jobs Report

#Jobs — Lowest U6 ever

+145,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 160K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, a record low (since 1994)
Wages up 0.1%, to 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged

November revised down from 266K to 256K
October revised down from 156K to 152K

Jeff 12:40 pm on Thursday, January 9, 2020

Jobs tomorrow

Don’t forget, the Jobs report is released before the open tomorrow. This market tends to like catalysts for quick moves.

Jeff 12:35 pm on Thursday, January 9, 2020
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

How low can you go?

#VXXgame Now that the Great Iran Volatility Event of 2020 has ended (or at least paused), we hit new all-time lows on $VXX and $UVXY today.

Jeff 12:16 pm on Thursday, January 9, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads for .70. Not yet sure what I’ll do with call side, if anything.

Also getting out of the Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spread sold yesterday. I don’t know why I made the same trade as last week that crushed me. At least this time the loss will be small. I will now stop thinking upward momentum MUST slow down. Apparently, it does not.

Jeff 10:36 am on Thursday, January 9, 2020
Tags: PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 ), Rolling ( 462 )

UBER out

#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 31.5 calls for 2.00. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th for .80. Puts previously closed for .05.

#Rolling : Sold $UBER Jan 31st 32/36 strangles for .86. Won’t make up for the loss but will keep it going

Jeff 1:00 pm on Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX lucky expiration

#SPX1dte That was NOT a fun run up to 3267. But my condor from yesterday has expired worthless.
$SPX Jan 8th 3190/3210-3260/3280, sold yesterday for .80.

Jeff 10:43 am on Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 5-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spreads for 1.70. I’m not bearish… just don’t think we’ll be moving so fast if we go higher.

I am riding our today’s 3260 call side of condor.

Jeff 8:10 am on Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%

Avg (+ or -) 10.73%
Bias -6.96%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 14.68 to 18.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.95 to 18.55
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 13.23 to 20.27
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 19.52

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:10 am on Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 8th 3185/3205-3260/3280 condors for .80. IV: 8.16%, SPX 3239.

Jeff 7:17 am on Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

STZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 3, 2019 BO -6.05%
June 28, 2019 BO +4.63%
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -5.79%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%

Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.89%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 187.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 177.59 to 197.41
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 176.32 to 198.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 164.23 to 210.77
Based on UP max only (+9.8%): 205.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:11 am on Monday, January 6, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX puts closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 6th 3175 puts for .05. Spreads sold for .40 on Friday.

Jeff 1:56 pm on Friday, January 3, 2020
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.

Jeff 12:48 pm on Friday, January 3, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX-ing

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 6th 3175/3150 put spreads for .40. Looking for small rally into close to sell 3270/3290 call side.

Also selling to close Jan 6th 3265/3280 long call spread…. it has broken even a few times today, then always retreated. Now looks like it will be small loss as I don’t want to risk a full loss by waiting for Monday.

Expiring:
Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3790 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
Jan 3rd 3210/3185 put spreads sold last Friday for 2.60.

Jeff 10:21 am on Friday, January 3, 2020
Tags: Jobs ( 140 )

Econ Calendar for week of 1/6/20

#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 11:54 am on Thursday, January 2, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3290 condors for .85, IV 7.75%, SPX 3247.

Jeff 9:20 am on Thursday, January 2, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX long calls

#SPX1dte Went long on the pullback as I think we will stair step higher for next few days; warning, however… what I “think” has not been working too well lately!

Bought to Open $SPX Jan 6th 3265/3280 call spreads for 1.45.

Jeff 6:00 am on Thursday, January 2, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Monster rally continues

#SPX1dte I resolve in 2020 to ask before putting on certain trades: “Is it a better risk to BUY or SELL this spread?” I should have asked that Tuesday when I sold a call spread during this Upside Warning and blistering rally!

Happy New Year everyone! 3,500 on S&P this year? Or will that threatened recession start?