#Jobs — Lowest U6 ever
+145,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 160K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, a record low (since 1994)
Wages up 0.1%, to 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
November revised down from 266K to 256K
October revised down from 156K to 152K
Don’t forget, the Jobs report is released before the open tomorrow. This market tends to like catalysts for quick moves.
#VXXgame Now that the Great Iran Volatility Event of 2020 has ended (or at least paused), we hit new all-time lows on $VXX and $UVXY today.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads for .70. Not yet sure what I’ll do with call side, if anything.
Also getting out of the Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spread sold yesterday. I don’t know why I made the same trade as last week that crushed me. At least this time the loss will be small. I will now stop thinking upward momentum MUST slow down. Apparently, it does not.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 31.5 calls for 2.00. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th for .80. Puts previously closed for .05.
#Rolling : Sold $UBER Jan 31st 32/36 strangles for .86. Won’t make up for the loss but will keep it going
#SPX1dte That was NOT a fun run up to 3267. But my condor from yesterday has expired worthless.
$SPX Jan 8th 3190/3210-3260/3280, sold yesterday for .80.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spreads for 1.70. I’m not bearish… just don’t think we’ll be moving so fast if we go higher.
I am riding our today’s 3260 call side of condor.
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Avg (+ or -) 10.73%
Bias -6.96%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 14.68 to 18.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.95 to 18.55
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 13.23 to 20.27
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 19.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 8th 3185/3205-3260/3280 condors for .80. IV: 8.16%, SPX 3239.
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 BO -6.05%
June 28, 2019 BO +4.63%
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -5.79%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.89%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 187.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 177.59 to 197.41
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 176.32 to 198.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 164.23 to 210.77
Based on UP max only (+9.8%): 205.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 6th 3175 puts for .05. Spreads sold for .40 on Friday.
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 6th 3175/3150 put spreads for .40. Looking for small rally into close to sell 3270/3290 call side.
Also selling to close Jan 6th 3265/3280 long call spread…. it has broken even a few times today, then always retreated. Now looks like it will be small loss as I don’t want to risk a full loss by waiting for Monday.
Expiring:
Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3790 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
Jan 3rd 3210/3185 put spreads sold last Friday for 2.60.
#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3290 condors for .85, IV 7.75%, SPX 3247.
#SPX1dte Went long on the pullback as I think we will stair step higher for next few days; warning, however… what I “think” has not been working too well lately!
Bought to Open $SPX Jan 6th 3265/3280 call spreads for 1.45.
#SPX1dte I resolve in 2020 to ask before putting on certain trades: “Is it a better risk to BUY or SELL this spread?” I should have asked that Tuesday when I sold a call spread during this Upside Warning and blistering rally!
Happy New Year everyone! 3,500 on S&P this year? Or will that threatened recession start?
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 3rd 3250/3275 call spreads for 1.70. Offsets 3210/3185 put spreads sold Friday for 2.60.
Expiring today: Dec 31st 3155/3175/3255/3275 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 3155/3175-3255/3275 condors for .80, IV: 10.48%, SPX 3223.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 25.5 puts for .05. GTC Order in to close 31.5 calls for same. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th.
#SPX1dte . Stops have been breached on all three of the put spreads I’m holding. Looking to exit, but also have to run out for awhile.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX1dte Stopped at the car charger in Rawlins, WY, to place the trade:
Sold $SPX Dec 30th 3195/3215-3250/3270 condors for .85. IV: 5.64%, SPX 3234.
Man, my exit this morning really sucked. Had to hit the road early so I couldn’t wait, but I’ve so many times seen futures up before the open, and then just sail higher after the bell. Happened exactly the opposite way today, so I got shafted. Fortunately, it wiped out only a couple of trades from a pretty good string these last few weeks.
#SPX1dte Should rolled this into a long call spread at the close yesterday…
BTC $SPX Dec 27th 3250/3270 call spreads for 3.30. Condors sold yesterday for .80. This will break me even on this trade plus the put spread for 12/31.
Driving today so I had to get out when I could… cheaper exit available now.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 27th 3195/3215-3250/3270 condors for .80.
IV: 5.69%, SPX 3234, deltas: .09 each side. Still more aggressive than my usual .06-.07, but I don’t anticipate big moves until after holidays.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT June 19th 47 calls for 3.80 (highest strike). First position in NUGT in awhile.
Also looking at $GUSH, which is reaching 3-month highs.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 3200/3175 put spreads for 2.60. 7-dte by calendar but only 4 trading days.
Likely expiring today: Dec 24th 3200/3210-3245/3255 condors, sold yesterday for .45.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 24th 3200/3210-3245/3255 condors for .45, 10-wide, double sized. Last year’s Xmas Eve plunge notwithstanding, I’m betting against any big moves tomorrow.
Expiring:
Dec 23rd 3185/3195-3245/3255 condors, sold Friday for .40
Dec 23rd 3160/3135 put spreads, sold last Tuesday for 2.00
Refresh your page for holiday cheer.
The market closes early on Tuesday, 1pm ET.
Closed on Wednesday.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 23rd 3185/3195-3245/3255 condors for .45, 10-wide, double sized position. Did this on my Mac while Tesla was in Auto Pilot. Not recommended, but I forgot to do it while we were stopped.
#Earnings Both Dub Cals this week closed at losses. $FDX never had a chace, closed for a debit of .02. $ACN was profitable yesterday, but Ii made the mistake of waiting: closed for a credit of .15 to .30.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 20th 3230/3250 call spreads for .40. Condors sold yesterday for .75.
Stop was breached at the open. Hitting the road today so won’t be able to manage much.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 20th 3160/3180-3230/3250 condors for .75, IV 8.97%, SPX 3205. Another slightly aggressive one with deltas at .10/.08
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Avg (+ or -) 4.51%
Bias 1.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.68 to 104.32
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.49 to 104.51
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 92.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 18th 3150/3170-3220/3240 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
#Earnings . Bought to Open $ACN Dec20/Dec27 202.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Only partial fill. Probably need to bid higher now to get filled.
#Earnings $ACN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 26, 2019 BO +0.65%
June 27, 2019 BO -0.16%
March 28, 2019 BO +5.19%
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -4.94%
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -1.68%
June 28, 2018 BO +5.89% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 BO -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 21, 2017 BO +1.61%
Sept. 28, 2017 BO -0.23%
June 22, 2017 BO -3.95%
March 23, 2017 BO -4.52%
Dec. 21, 2016 BO -4.99%
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -1.20%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 195.74 to 212.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 197.01 to 210.99
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 189.15 to 218.85
Based on UP max only (+5.9%): 216.02
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68%
Avg (+ or -) 7.61%
Bias 1.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.56 to 56.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 48.97 to 57.03
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 45.93 to 60.07
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 47.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 18th 3150/3170-3220/3240 condors for .80, IV 7.89%, SPX 3195.
Since Upside Warning s firing today, this leans bullish, with usual .06 delat on call side but .10 on put side.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FDX Dec20/Dec27 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .85.
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51% Biggest UP
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Avg (+ or -) 4.43%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 162.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 150.97 to 174.03
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 155.31 to 169.69
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 141.52 to 183.48
Based on UP max only (+3.5%): 168.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte In honor of likely Upside Warning: Sold $SPX Dec 23rd 3160/3135 put spreads for 2.00.
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning will go into effect Tuesday with a VIX close at 12.82 or lower.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 16th 3200 calls for .20. Condors sold for .80 on Friday.
#ShortPuts Followed @optioniceman with the high vol stock that @330nick found
Sold $AXSM Dec 20th 25 puts for 1.70
Sold $AXSM Dec 20th 22.5 puts for 1.35
Don’t do these wild ones much anymore, but the low stock price limits the risk.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 16th 3090/3110-3200/3220 condors for .80. IV 9.21%, SPX 3168.
Expiring: Dec 13th 3090/3110-3205/3225 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 AC +0.92%
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Avg (+ or -) 3.35%
Bias -1.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 297.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 287.83 to 307.17
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.53 to 307.47
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 271.97 to 323.03
Based on UP max only (+5.1%): 312.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th 3090/3110-3205/3225 condors for .80. IV: 12.95%, SPX 3167
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 16th 3200/3225 call spreads for 1.80. Condors sold for 1.75 on Monday. I’ll look to close the puts before the weekend.
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21% Biggest UP
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Avg (+ or -) 3.27%
Bias -0.25%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 304.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 293.08 to 314.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 295.02 to 314.98
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 282.80 to 327.20
Based on UP max only (+5.2%): 320.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Avg (+ or -) 4.24%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 327.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 312.80 TOO 342.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 313.61 TO 341.39
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 299.70 TO 355.30
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 309.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 put for .50. #LongStraddle sold for 1.35 on Tuesday. Closed for a total of .55.
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to delay the tariffs, we could re-enter a Downside Warning quickly and easily.
My opinion: I don’t think a trade deal will be reached until after the election. However, I do think the tariffs will be delayed. I don’t know how that will affect the markets, but Monday we could be anywhere.
#SPX1dte Expired today: $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
IV and premium high this week due to Sunday’s tariff deadline. I have a 7-dte expiring Monday that has not changed in price despite two days passing and no movement in SPX.
#Earnings $CIEN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO -3.83%
June 6, 2019 BO +26.78% Biggest UP
March 5, 2019 BO -4.88%
Dec. 13, 2018 BO +8.61%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +12.44%
May 31, 2018 BO -4.19%
March 6, 2018 BO +10.05%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO -1.93%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 BO +15.80%
March 8, 2017 BO -8.40%
Dec. 8, 2016 BO +15.13%
Avg (+ or -) 10.25%
Bias 4.55%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 35.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 32.28 to 38.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 31.86 to 39.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.8%): 25.99 to 45.01
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 calls for .05. Holding puts for a spike higher. Sold #LongStraddle for 1.35 yesterday.
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Avg (+ or -) 11.64%
Bias 5.50%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.70 to 247.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 203.24 to 256.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 176.11 to 283.89
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 267.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs . Just noticed I was filled yesterday:
BTC $DRIP Jan 17th 150 calls for .45. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd.
#Earnings Sold to Open $AEO Dec 11th 15 #LongStraddle for 1.35. Needs over an 11% move before losses; avg move has been 6.6%.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors for 1.05. IV: 10.67%, SPX 3136.
#Earnings $AEO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 4, 2019 BO -11.61%
June 5, 2019 BO +0.10%
March 6, 2019 AC -0.37%
Dec. 11, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 29, 2018 BO -6.52%
May 31, 2018 BO -1.81%
March 8, 2018 BO -9.43%
Dec. 6, 2017 BO +2.42%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO +7.76% Biggest UP
May 17, 2017 BO -14.73% Biggest DOWN
March 1, 2017 BO -9.52%
Nov. 30, 2016 BO -12.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.64%
Bias -4.43%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 15.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.90 to 16.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.28 to 16.32
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.7%): 13.05 to 17.55
Based on UP max only (+7.8%): 16.49
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $PLCE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 BO -2.44%
May 15, 2019 BO -6.90%
March 5, 2019 BO +5.70%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -13.38% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -1.27%
May 17, 2018 BO -7.94%
March 20, 2018 BO -7.91%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO +5.92%
Aug. 9, 2017 BO -4.57%
May 18, 2017 BO -0.44%
March 8, 2017 BO +18.26% Biggest UP
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.24%
Avg (+ or -) 7.33%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.31 to 77.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 64.41 to 74.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.3%): 56.81 to 82.19
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 60.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 16th 2985/3010-3200/3225 condors for 1.75, IV 14.25%, SPX 3142.
Expiring today:
Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors, sold Friday for .45
Dec 9th 3190/3215 call spreads, sold in a condor last Monday, put side was rolled to:
Dec 9th 3150/3175 call spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.60
#Earnings $MDB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (8 quarters).
Sept. 4, 2019 AC -5.18% Biggest DOWN
June 5, 2019 AC -0.75%
March 13, 2019 AC +25.58% Biggest UP
Dec. 4, 2018 AC +8.37%
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +9.17%
June 6, 2018 AC -3.27%
March 13, 2018 AC +7.42%
Dec. 12, 2017 AC -5.68%
Avg (+ or -) 8.18%
Bias 4.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 120.31 to 145.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 122.12 to 143.88
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.6%): 98.98 to 167.02
Based on DOWN max only (-5.7%): 125.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.17%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1121.65 to 1233.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1116.08 to 1238.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1038.08 to 1316.92
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1256.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors for .45. 10-wide, doiuble sized position. IV: 7.01%, SPX 3149.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 6th 3145 calls for 2.60. Condors sold yesterday for .80
#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there are any concurrent indicators that can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate warnings.
For 2019, the Warning on 4/5 was good; 8/1 was okay; but 10/2 and 12/2 were head fakes.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Jan 10th 25.5/31.5 strangles for .80
#Earnings . BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 puts for .80. #LongStraddle sold for 1.65 on Tuesday. Closed for 1.00 total.
#ContangoETFs BTC $DRIP Dec 20th 115 calls for .80. Sold for 8.60 on July 23rd.
#Jobs — Blowout numbers
+266,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 187K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.1%
Wages up 0.3%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, down by .01%
October revised up from 128K to 156K
September revised up from 180K to 193K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3055/3075-3145/3165 condors for .80. IV: 10.10%, SPX 3115.
