#Jobs report Friday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us&lid=0
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Unsurprisingly, I got the intraday move exactly backwards. Was planning to sell call spread when index went higher, but instead I’m stuck selling it lower. Sold call side for .50, so now my trade for Monday is:
Sold $SPX Dec 2nd 3095/3115-3165/3185 condors for 1.00.
Expiring: Nov 29th 3135/3115 put spreads, sold Wednesday for .60.
NYSE Tick
TICK is not working today on TOS. Anyone else see this? Nothing after end of day Wednesday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 2nd 3115/3095 put spreads for .50, IV 6.19%, SPX 3147.
Will sell call side on a move higher.
SPX roll
#SPX 1-dte . Buying to close $SPX Nov 29th 3165/3185 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for .85 this morning, so (hopefully) the .05 profit will cover commissions. If it doesn’t fill, I will have to up my bid.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open Nov 29th 3135/3115 put spreads for .60.
ADSK closed
#Earnings Sold to close $ADSK Nov29/Dec06 170 #DoubleCalendar for .92. Bought for .65 yesterday.
Started the morning nicely, but looks like a runner.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Nov 29th 3090/3110-3165/3185 condor for .85, IV 6.42%, SPX 3144.
Trying something different: selling in the morning so I can grab some premium before it evaporates. I don’t expect SPX to move too much in the next day and a half of holiday trading.
No SPX
Not enough premium so I did not sell #SPX1dte.
ADSK dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $ADSK Nov29/Dec06 170 #DoubleCalendar for .65. Had the order on for a couple hours… just filled on one. As has been the case with these trades, they can fill slowly as we near the bell.
Lower probability as ADSK has moved on earnings a fair amount. But most recent quarters has below average moves.
VMW reports tonight
#Earnings $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC -9.94%
May 30, 2019 AC -11.53% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +3.71%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14% Biggest UP
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.49%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 167.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.28 to 177.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.00 to 175.00
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-11.5%): 147.74 to 186.26
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 177.25
Open to requests for other symbols.
HD closed
#Earnings Sold $HD stock for 220.50.
Nov22/Nov29 237.5 #DoubleCalendar bought for .82 on monday Nov 18th
#Assignment on stock for 237.50 on the 21st
Sold Nov 29th long puts for 18.20 on the 21st
Sold stock today for 220.50
Profit on trade: +0.38
Trades can work even when they initially fail… if you can carry the stock and hold it through dips. Not advised during a correction but it worked in this environment.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65%Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.56%
Bias 2.04%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.40 to 185.60
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 169.41 to 185.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 157.90 to 197.10
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 163.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADSK earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 27, 2019 AC -6.74%
May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Avg (+ or -) 8.19%
Bias 1.57%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.50 to 183.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 156.08 to 183.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 143.06 to 196.95
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 196.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBY closed
#Earnings Sold ro close $BBY Nov29/Dec06 74 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Bought yesterday for .54. My bad streak on earnings continues, but not painful today.
ANF closed
#Earnings Sold to close $ANF Nov 29th 16/16.5 strangles for .926. Bought yesterday for 1.99.
Didn’t get the move so worked aggressively to unload at the open when volatility still high, rather than wait to see if the stock will move enough to become profitable.
The move came in BBY, which is where I didn’t want it.
Holiday schedule
Stock market open full day Wednesday, closed Thursday, then half-day Friday (closes at 1pm ET).
NUGT closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 17th 40 call for .25. Sold for 2.10 on March 25th. Not sure if that long wait was worth it. Now flat in NUGT.
BBY dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $BBY Nov29/Dec06 74 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Partial fill so far, not raising my price.
ANF earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Avg (+ or -) 16.52%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.95 to 18.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.44 to 18.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 11.84 to 20.36
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 19.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -7.98%
May 23, 2019 BO -4.84%
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Avg (+ or -) 8.32%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.87 to 79.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 67.85 to 80.15
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 58.11 to 89.89
Based on DOWN max only (-11.9%): 65.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Avg (+ or -) 8.07%
Bias 0.61%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 234.96 to 265.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 229.82 to 270.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 189.63 to 310.38
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 293.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 3130 calls for 1.85. Condors sold Friday for .85.
Final VXX closed
#VXXgame Sold to close $VXX Jan 17th 20 puts for 4.00. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27 for avg price of 1.30. Sold four batches so far at 2.65, 3.00, 3.25, 3.50, and 4.00.
My research over the history of VXX and UVXY show that this trade usually works. Of course, the first year I had a robust position (last year), it failed as the market went straight down from September until Dec 24th. But glad it worked out this time.
On next pullback I will start buying VXX and UVXY 20 puts to sell next fall. A reverse split will really help this work better, but not sure if we’ll get low enough before a pullback comes.
Calendar bust
#Earnings Been striking out on recent #DoubleCalendar trades…
Paid .01 to close put calendar on $INTU, bought yesterday for 1.35. This one is a disappointment as it is more expensive than most of these trades, and these higher priced stocks rarely result in a full loss. The morning looked promising but it spent the whole day sinking. It does, however, have a better chance than most of producing some return on the long 272.5 long call lottery ticket next week.
$HD, sold the long puts yesterday, expecting some bounce, but it fell further. So holding the stock for next week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3055/3075-3130/3150 condors for .85, IV: 5.90%, SPX: 3108.
Expiring: Nov 22nd 3060/3070-3130/3140, sold yesterday for .45.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/25/19
#GDP numbers on Wednesday morning
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=25&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
HD assignment
#Earnings I was assigned $HD shares at 237.50 last night. Today, I sold the Nov 29th long 237.5 puts for 18.20. Plan to sell the stock on next move higher… hopefully for about 220.00 which would make the trade almost break-even.
Original trade: $HD Nov22/Nov29 237.5 #DoubleCalendar for .82 on Monday.
Looks like the INTU trade has a better chance of working.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3060/3070-3130/3140 condors for .45. Ten-wide, double-sized position.
IV: 8.80%, SPX 3106
INTU earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +1.09%
May 23, 2019 AC +6.70%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 272.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 262.33 to 282.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 262.95 to 282.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 254.08 to 290.92
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 262.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83% Biggest DOWN
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Avg (+ or -) 7.69%
Bias 2.44%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.04 to 136.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 117.24 to 136.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 104.28 to 149.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 117.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Nov 20th 3095/3075 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Fortunately got a bounce from the lows, but not risking another plunge.
I will let call side expire.
Trade again
I think these two tweets together sum up the ridiculousness of trading off trade-deal headlines.
M earnings analysis
#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 BO -13.22%
May 15, 2019 BO -0.45%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Avg (+ or -) 8.03%
Bias -2.64%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 15.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.39 to 17.01
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.98 to 16.42
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 12.62 to 17.78
Based on UP max only (+11.0%): 16.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26%
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias -0.53%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 287.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.37 to 308.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.89 to 310.11
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 247.02 to 327.98
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 255.99
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3075/3095-3140/3160 condors for .95, IV: 7.44%, SPX 3124.
TGT earnings analysis
#Earnings $TGT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 BO +20.42% Biggest UP
May 22, 2019 BO +7.78%
March 5, 2019 BO +4.58%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -11.26%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +3.20%
May 23, 2018 BO -5.69%
March 6, 2018 BO -4.45%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO -9.86%
Aug. 16, 2017 BO +3.60%
May 17, 2017 BO +0.93%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2016 BO +6.42%
Avg (+ or -) 7.53%
Bias 0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 102.31 to 117.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 101.72 to 118.28
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.4%): 87.54 to 132.46
Based on UP max only (-12.2%): 96.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
Adding more VIX
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Feb 18th 19/22 call spreads for .60. Added to the Jan 21st 17/20 already holding.
KSS earnings analysis
#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33% Biggest DOWN
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
May 11, 2017 BO -7.83%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -2.08%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +11.53% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias -2.93%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.70 to 63.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.69 to 62.31
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.3%): 51.29 to 65.71
Based on UP max only (+11.5%): 65.25
Open to requests for other symbols.
HD earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 20, 2019 BO +4.39% Biggest UP
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63%
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Avg (+ or -) 1.41%
Bias -0.03%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 229.57 to 245.43
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 234.16 to 240.84
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.4%): 227.07 to 247.93
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 231.21
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I’m legging in as I feel the index may continue higher into the close.
Sold $SPX Nov 18th 3085/3065 put spreads for .55. IV 5.98%, SPX 3115.
Will look to sell call side on a spike higher, or perhaps skip it since IV and premium is so low.
Closed CSCO to avoid assignment
#Earnings Closed put side of $CSCO Nov15/Nov22 48.5 #DoubleCalendar for .00 on TOS, for a .01 debit on IB. The short calls will expire, long calls a lottery ticket for next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/18/19
#FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2pm ET
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=18&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
More VXX closed
#VXXgame Sold to close $VXX Jan 17th 20 puts for 3.50. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27 for avg price of 1.30. Sold four batches so far at 2.65, 3.00, 3.25, and 3.50.
Still holding a final batch. Going for 4.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 15th 3045/3065-3120/3140 condors for .70, IV 8.62%, SPX 3096
NVDA butterfly
#Earnings Bought Nov 15th 217.5/220/222.5 call #EMButterfly for .19.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.70%
Bias 2.74%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 208.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.41 to 221.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 189.90 to 226.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 146.02 to 269.98
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 169.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
CSCO earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $CSCO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 AC -8.61% Biggest DOWN
May 15, 2019 AC +6.65% Biggest UP
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +1.89%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.50%
Aug. 15, 2018 AC +2.96%
May 16, 2018 AC -3.76%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +4.72%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +5.18%
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -4.01%
May 17, 2017 AC -7.21%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +2.37%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC -4.81%
Avg (+ or -) 4.81%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.22 to 50.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 46.17 to 50.83
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 44.32 to 52.68
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 51.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing SWKS
#Earnings . Sold to close $SWKS Nov15/Nov22 101 #DoubleCalendar for 1.40. Bought yesterday for .732.
Only partial fill so far.
WMT earnings analysis
#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +6.22%
May 16, 2019 BO +1.43%
Feb. 19, 2019 BO +2.21%
Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%
May 18, 2017 BO +3.22%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +2.99%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO -3.08%
Avg (+ or -) 4.58%
Bias 1.47%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 120.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.34 to 124.66
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 114.50 to 125.50
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 106.93 to 133.07
Based on DOWN max only (-10.2%): 107.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
May 24, 2017 AC +3.53%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +4.18%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC +6.24%
Avg (+ or -) 6.35%
Bias -0.40%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 60.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.03 to 65.97
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 56.66 to 64.34
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 50.87 to 70.13
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 53.41
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Sod to Open $SPX Nov 13th 3050/3060-3110/3120 condors for .50. Ten-wide, double position.
IV 7.61%, SPX 3088.
VIX hedge
#Hedge I’m calling it a hedge, but I’m not net long or short so it’s really just a trade.
Bought to open $VIX Jan 21st 17/20 call spread for .80
SWKS Dub Cal
#Earnings Bought to open $SWKS Nov15/Nov22 101 #DoubleCalendar for 0.732 (avg price).
More VXX closed
#VXXGame Sold to close next batch of $VXX Jan 2020 long 20 puts for 3.25. Bought for avg price of 1.30. Still holding more.
SPX 4-dte closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 15th 3050/3025 put spreads for 1.35. Sold yesterday for 1.75. I’m not liking the look of today’s action, so not going to let this get worse.
TQQQ long LEAPs closed
#LongLEAPs Sold to Close $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 long calls for 11.05.
Starting buying on Oct 4th, 2018, LAST year, for average price of 10.12 over 5 accounts.
I reduced cost basis by selling covered calls (and sometimes puts), but I’m behind on bookkeeping so not sure by how much yet. It looks like I reduced it by only a little on some accounts, up to about a half on others. I’ve decided to close now as I do not trust the market for remainder of year. I do think higher is certainly possible, but that we could also see a pullback soon that would not regain current levels until after expiration.
SWKS earnings analysis
#Earnings $SWKS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +0.46%
May 2, 2019 AC -3.51%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +11.49%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -8.08% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2018 AC -5.35%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.28%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC +10.44%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -4.41%
July 20, 2017 AC -0.15%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.28%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +13.01% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +0.53%
Avg (+ or -) 5.50%
Bias 1.20%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 102.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.27 to 108.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.39 to 107.61
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 88.73 to 115.27
Based on DOWN max only (-8.1%): 93.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 15th 3050/3025 put spreads for 1.75, IV 9.37%, SPX close 3087
Sold this after the bell. I was wrong about a rally today but still think we have higher to go before this peters out.
Expiring today: 3065/3046 put credit spread and 3110/3125 call debit spread, trades placed Friday for net credit of .40.
UVXY closed
#Earnings Sold to close final $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 4.75. Avg purchase price 1.85. Still holding long $VXX 20 puts.
Expirations
The Good, Expiring worthless:
$SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors, sold yesterday for .80
$DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spreads, sold yesterday for .65
The Bad, although not Ugly,
$MNST Nov 8th 59/60.5/62 EM call butterfly, bought yesterday for .205
$HUM Nov 8th EM put and call butterflys, bought for .32 total on Tuesday
First time I tried these, both could have been exited for small profit at one point, but I waited to see if I could get more.
SPX 1-dte risk reversal
#SPX1dte After getting stopped out on call side last Friday and Monday, I am taking a bullish bet for Monday, since yesterday and today SPX was nearly flat. Time for another surge.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3065/3045 put spread for .68 credit
Bought to open Nov 11th 3110/3125 call spreads for .28 debit
I did the above as one trade for a .40 credit. If we gap open I will look to sell the call spread early.
The Haps Next Week
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=11&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SQ closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $SQ Nov08/Nov15 61 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought Wednesday for .48
DIS bullish
#Earnings . Sold to Open $DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spread for .65.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors for .80, IV 7.69%, SPX 3085
MNST earnings analysis
#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +2.96%
May 2, 2019 AC +8.82%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Avg (+ or -) 5.84%
Bias 0.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 56.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.63 to 60.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.44 to 60.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.4%): 48.56 to 64.94
Based on UP max only (+12.8%): 63.99
Open to requests for other symbols.
DIS earnings analysis
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 6, 2019 AC -4.94% Biggest DOWN
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 2.09%
Bias -0.98%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.5 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 127.48137.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.74 to 135.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 125.95 to 139.05
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 136.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 6th 3040/3050-3100/3110 condors, sold yesterday for .50.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -14.05% Biggest DOWN
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.74%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 61.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.48 to 66.52
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 56.89 to 65.11
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 52.43 to 69.57
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 69.55
Open to requests for other symbols.
ROKU earnings analysis
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (8 quarters).
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 24.02%
Bias 13.59%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 122.94 to 163.06
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 8 quarters: 108.65 to 177.35
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 8 Q’s (54.9%): 64.45 to 221.55
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 119.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 19, 2019 AC +4.31%
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
Avg (+ or -) 6.19%
Bias -1.18%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 109.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 100.94 to 117.06
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 102.25 to 115.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 91.00 to 127.00
Based on UP max only (+9.5%): 119.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
HUM butterflys
#Earnings . Following @mortlightman here, although I would still like to know, Mort, why you only went with the downside. Also, what is exit plan….. do you want for price to go near your center strike or just get out quickly?
Bought $HUM Nov 8th 280/282.5/285 put butterflys for .15
Bought $HUM Nov 8th 305/307.5/310 call butterflys for .17
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3040/3050-3100/3110 condors for .50, 10-wide, double sized.
IV 7.31%, SPX 3078.
UBER off
#Earnings Bought to close $UBER Nov 8th 27.5 puts for .75. #ShortStrangles sold yesterday for 1.86. I’ll let the 33.5 calls expire.
CPRI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRPI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
**CPRI was formerly $KORS. The most recent 3 quarters (at top) are CPRI, the remainder are KORS.
Aug. 7, 2019 BO +3.07%
May 29, 2019 BO -9.84%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +11.29%
—————————
Nov. 7, 2018 BO -14.62% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 BO +6.72%
May 30, 2018 BO -11.44%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +1.02%
Nov. 6, 2017 BO +14.69%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO +21.54% Biggest UP
May 31, 2017 BO -8.51%
Feb. 7, 2017 BO -10.80%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC -3.97%
Avg (+ or -) 9.79%
Bias -0.07%, no sign bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.13 to 37.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 30.67 to 37.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 26.68 to 41.32
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 29.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
