#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 16th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.40. This was a thoroughly annoying one. Not only could I have closed it yesterday for probably .20, but I tried to close at the open for under 1.00. Missing my fill, I ended up chasing it down, trying to fill on each bounce, until finally I just had to pull the cord. At least I got the 1.00 profit. I’ll let the calls expire, even through that side traded as high as 8.00 yesterday.
Condors sold Monday for 3.45.
#SPX1dte My stop was hit at the open so my order to close put side filled on the little spike up we just had.
BTC $SPX Aug 14th 2865/2845 put spreads for 3.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
Also, working to close the Aug 16th 2775/2750 put spreads which were sold Monday in a condor. Should have closed yesterday except for deer-in-headlights syndrome.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.76%, SPX 2923
#Earnings Sold to Open $TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly for 2.95. Risking 1.00 to make 2.95. This has a decent chance of max loss, but the R/R make it worth the shot. Also, three days for it to return to the middle if it moves far tonight.
#Earnings $TLRY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 4 quarters, which represent its entire history of earnings reports.
May 14, 2019 AC +0.32%
March 18, 2019 AC -3.39%
Nov. 13, 2018 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 AC +20.64% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.15%
Bias 2.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 43.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.02 to 47.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.50 to 46.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 34.12 to 51.88
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 39.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Aug 30th 37 put for 1.50. The 37/43.5 strangles sold for 1.08 on Friday.
Nice thing about these is how small the loss is if your strike is breached. I will allow the call to close for .05.
I will give it a day or two before selling a new one.
BREAKING: Stocks jump to session highs, Apple surges more than 4.5% after USTR removes items from China tariff list, delays some others including those on cell phones and laptops https://t.co/4gGcxyFOnV pic.twitter.com/AMmid6LZJY
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 13, 2019
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th (Friday PM) 2750/2775-2950/2975 condors for 3.45, IV 22.57%, SPX 2880.
#PieTrades Sold to Open $INTC Sept 6th 46 puts for 1.50.
Since my on-going favorite $T is not near 52-week lows, I’ve switched to $KHC and INTC for my PieTrades.
#Earnings Sold to close $YELP 34.5 calls for 3.00 average price. Got a couple sold for a small profit this morning, but made the mistake of waiting for it to go higher and it collapsed instead. These are usually winners, but pretty tough to manage. I think I need to try trailing stops.
#LongStrangles bought yesterday for 4.23. This loss and the UBER win cancel each other out.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2840/2860-2970/2990 condors for 1.10. IV: 11.71%, SPX 2929
Expiring today: Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.35
#Earnings #PerpetualRollingStrangles
Since today’s 39.5/45.5 earnings strangle look to be expiring worthless, I’m resuming what worked for me for a couple months after my earnings losing trade in May:
Sold $UBER Aug 30th 37/43.5 strangles for 1.08
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=12&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Sold to close $Z Aug 9th 40 puts for 1.00. Lowers cost basis of tonight’s assignment to 41.74, via assignment of the 44 short puts. Condors sold Wednesday for 1.26.
Smaller account: sold 42 puts for 2.65, cost basis 40.60. Will close the short put if we recover to that level today.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors for 1.35. IV 16.74%, SPX 2928.
A little more aggressive (.07/.08 short deltas) than my usual, but betting on a quieter day after today’s rally.
#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.
#Earnings Bought to Open $YELP Aug 9th 34/34.5 #LongStrangle for 4.23.
#Earnings $UBER has only reported once, on May 30th, and the next day move was +1.5%. (Max intraday was +4.4%)
Expected move on TOS is +/- 3.59.
Sold $UBER Aug 9th 39.5/45.5 strangles for 1.05. Strikes are 7.1% OTM.
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23
thanks for the idea @honkhonk81
#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.
BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.
#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%
Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.
Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.
If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.
#Jobs — matching estimates for a change
+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)
June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
More likely to come
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
April 19, 2017 AC +0.09%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -5.00%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -0.20%
July 20, 2016 AC +7.36% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.15 to 78.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.43 to 77.57
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 68.88 to 81.12
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 80.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias -3.12%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.14 to 58.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 51.45 to 58.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 45.00 to 65.00
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 59.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 3.27%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 318.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.33 to 341.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 296.93 to 339.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 279.74 to 356.25
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 289.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors for 1.20. IV 14.64%, SPX 3013.
Juicy premium due to the Fed announcement. I think everyone knows what the decision will be, but no one knows what it will do to the market once they confirm it. My guess is: not much. But I’ll be prepared if I’m wrong.
#Earnings $ADP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 BO -4.20%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +4.03%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +4.96%
Aug. 1, 2018 BO -1.76%
May 2, 2018 BO +2.74%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +2.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.91%
July 27, 2017 BO +9.10% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 BO -6.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 1, 2017 BO -5.68%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +3.52%
July 28, 2016 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.07%
Bias 0.38%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.56 to 172.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.24 to 172.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 150.89 to 181.11
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 155.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
Avg (+ or -) 4.92%
Bias 0.28%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.17 to 93.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 92.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 76.30 to 99.70
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 99.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
$EXAS reported Monday morning, so please ignore its presence on the chart for today.
#Earnings Bought to close $BYND 145/175-230/232.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.45. Sold for 3.87 yesterday.
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
Avg (+ or -) 4.62%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.49 to 217.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters:197.91 to 217.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 193.33 to 221.67
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 193.74
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Move a bit too strong on both #DoubleCalendar so exiting with small losses.
STC $PG 116 for .28, bought yesterday for .36
STC $ETN 81 for .29, bought yesterday for .34
They lost .24 per share, vs. .08 loss expected.
I’m stealing this idea from Options Action. I usually hate their trades but this was a pretty simple one…
Bought to open $UUP Sept 26 calls for .72.
(this is one of those ETFs that trades until 4:15 eastern)
ETF closed at 26.57, so I’m only paying .15 of extrinsic value, on a bet the dollar goes higher after the rate cut.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 2nd 2935/2960-3070/3095 condors for 2.60.
Risky as this is a big week for news and earnings, but .11/.09 short deltas make me comfortable.
Expiring today: 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors, double-size position sold Friday for .45
#Earnings $GRUB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%
Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, very positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.90 to 89.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 68.24 to 89.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 57.39 to 100.61
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 68.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open #JadeLizard with disaster protection, making it a Broken-Wing Iron Condor:
Sold Aug 2nd 230/232.5 call spread AND 175/145 put spread, for 3.87. No upside risk… downside max risk 30.00.
#Earnings I have not traded this one yet. Thinking of Aug 2nd #JadeLizard, sell 180 put, and sell 250/252.5 call spread. Going for 5.45 credit. No upside risk. Thoughts?
#Earnings $PG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 23, 2019 BO -2.68%
Jan. 23, 2019 BO +4.86%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +8.79% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO +0.84%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.53%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -3.09%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -3.64% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 BO +1.54%
April 26, 2017 BO -2.51%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +3.24%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +3.41%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.04%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.85 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.58 to 120.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.32 to 119.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.8%): 105.67 to 126.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 111.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 