Jeff 6:50 am on Thursday, October 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56%

Avg (+ or -) 4.33%
Bias -0.49%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 512.55 to 557.45
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 511.85 to 558.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 491.29 to 578.71
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 497.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 1:02 pm on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning

#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).

Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.

Jeff 11:26 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: Welcome ( 22 )

Bistro problems

I have experienced some issues in the past weeks with Options Bistro log in as well.

The first steps to follow are:
Close your browser.
Reopen it.
Go to wordpress.com
Log in.
Leave the window open and open a new browser window or tab
Go to OptionsBistro.com.
Refresh the page.

If that doesn’t work you’ll need to clear the browser cache. Follow these instructions.
https://en.support.wordpress.com/browser-issues/#clearing-your-browser-cache

Please reply in the comments here if any of the above resolves your issues.

#Welcome

Jeff 11:09 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 18, 2019 BO +3.11%
April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10% Biggest DOWN (also the ONLY down)
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%

Avg (+ or -) 1.84%
Bias 1.66%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.36 to 169.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 160.98 to 167.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 157.80 to 170.20
Based on DOWN max only (-1.1%): 162.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 9:31 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

URI dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123c #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Not filled on all yet. Got one for .97 on TOS.

Jeff 9:25 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

URI earnings analysis

#Earnings $URI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC -7.89%
April 17, 2019 AC +8.14%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +6.29%
Oct. 17, 2018 AC -15.03% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC +0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC +3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +11.20% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +4.69%

Avg (+ or -) 5.94%
Bias -0.16%, no signoficant bias on earnings.

With stock at 123.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.43 to 131.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 115.70 to 130.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 104.51 to 141.49
Based on UP max only (+11.2%): 136.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:00 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%

Avg (+ or -) 5.20%
Bias -0.63%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 148.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.61 to 149.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 129.42 to 154.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 131.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:52 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), VIXIndicator ( 294 )

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.

Jeff 6:44 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

NFLX dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 1.37. This stock has typically been too volatile after earnings to be appropriate for this strategy. But two things: NFLX post-earnings moves have quieted in the last couple years, and the Dub-Cals perform well with higher priced stocks.

Jeff 6:38 am on Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.16%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.13 to 312.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.61 to 305.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 230.79 to 339.21
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 255.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:50 pm on Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Stuff this week

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 12:04 pm on Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size.
IV 10.34%, SPX 2998.

Jeff 9:51 am on Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT closed

#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for .54. Sold for 3.20 on July 18th.

Jeff 7:56 am on Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

UAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%

Avg (+ or -) 5.49%
Bias -0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.69 to 92.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 76.94 to 98.06
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 95.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:12 pm on Monday, October 14, 2019
Tags: VIX ( 10 )

Downside Warning canceled

#VIX indicator Well, so much for that. The VIX close today cancels the Downside Warning and we may be on the way to another Upside Warning. Let’s hope the signals work on the next round.

Jeff 8:48 am on Monday, October 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%

Avg (+ or -) 2.88%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 205.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.11 to 211.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 199.10 to 210.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 185.44 to 224.56
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 195.34

I’m getting on a plane so won’t be able to do any others today; back tomorrow. Happy trading!

Jeff 7:30 am on Friday, October 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX out

#SPX1dte Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2290/3010 call spreads for 5.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2985/3010 call spreads for 11.00. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15.

I’m taking a break. I’ve been absolutely slaughtered since the beginning of August. It has been a combination of mistakes, two signals in a row not working, and a completely unpredictable news-driven market. I cannot put on another trade today. I’ll still be here every day, and will resume the low-risk earnings trades next week, and the 1-day spreads once things calm down.

Jeff 1:12 pm on Thursday, October 10, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX too volatile

#SPX1dte I didn’t get what I wanted today and it’s just too risky to hold in this news-driven market with trade talks continuing into tomorrow. I think the most likely scenario is some partial deal that everyone gets excited about and the algos drive us higher, followed by a dump next week. But it’s just too uncertain (and ridiculous) to have on the risk.

BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 9.55. Sold yesterday for 7.00.

Jeff 11:55 am on Thursday, October 10, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2835/2855-2990/3010 condors for 1.35, IV 21.30%, SPX 2934.

High IV, lots of news expected.

Jeff 7:04 am on Thursday, October 10, 2019

Algos run our lives

BREAKING: Stocks jump after Trump tweets he will meet with China's Vice Premier at the White House tomorrow on trade amid reports of little trade talk progress https://t.co/ivEB35OTNo pic.twitter.com/XPRhnix73y

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 10, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 1:05 pm on Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2800/2825-2985/3010 condors for 3.15, IV: 17.01%, SPX close: 2919.

Sold a couple minutes after the closing bell.

Jeff 12:54 pm on Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Tags: Market ( 69 )

Nuts

#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”

Now this:

BREAKING: Stocks pull back by about 90 points after Reuters reports that Beijing has lowered expectations for trade talks this week. https://t.co/pWxu4hGRlD pic.twitter.com/Y7lXpOS9yM

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 9, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 10:29 am on Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX aggressive

#SPX1dte I am considering the Downside Warning and general market weakness. I look at the daily chart and see resistance at 2950 for most of August. I’ve been burned on some of these aggressive spreads recently so I’ll keep a tight leash on it. The biggest risk is, of course, news or a tweet.

Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 7.00.

Jeff 6:58 am on Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), DoubleCalendars ( 8 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 11, 2019 BO +1.16%
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%

Avg (+ or -) 1.82%
Bias 1.27%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 54.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.16 to 56.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.02 to 54.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 51.43 to 56.57
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 53.05

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

Jeff 6:52 am on Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

DPZ closed

#Earnings Sold to close $DPZ Oct11/Oct18 242.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.05. Bought Tuesday for 1.05. Only got filled on a 1-lot; should have forced the issue!

Jeff 12:13 pm on Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 9th 2830/2850-2955/2975 condors for 1.15, IV 16.66%, SPX 2906.

Jeff 7:57 am on Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte stopped

#SPX1dte . Looks like the Downside Warning may come through. BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2855/2830 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 3.00. Stop breached when SPX went below 2905. Perhaps it found support at 2900, but it looks like we could be going lower so getting out while it’s cheap.

Jeff 12:06 pm on Monday, October 7, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

DPZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $DPZ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 BO -8.66%
April 24, 2019 BO +4.89%
Feb. 21, 2019 BO -9.14%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO -4.87%
July 19, 2018 BO -2.44%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Feb. 20, 2018 BO +0.33%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -3.73%
July 25, 2017 BO -10.08% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 BO +2.53%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +2.36%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +4.89%

Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias -1.38%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 225.42 to 259.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 230.13 to 254.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.1%): 218.06 to 266.94
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 260.23

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 11:46 am on Monday, October 7, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2830/2855-3005/3030 condors for 3.00, IV17.92%, SPX 2945.

Jeff 7:14 am on Monday, October 7, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2885 puts for .05. Taking off downside risk, allowing remainder of condor to expire (sold Friday for 1.00)

Jeff 11:51 am on Friday, October 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2865/2885-2980/3000 condors for 1.00, IV: 9.92%, SPX 2943.

Expiring today (hopefully): 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.

Jeff 7:36 am on Friday, October 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), VIXIndicator ( 294 )

SPX Monday call spread closed

#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.

Jeff 6:32 am on Friday, October 4, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

COST closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 4.00. Bought yesterday for 2.00.

I thought I was asking too much to start at 4.00, but it filled at the bell. Could have gotten more.

Jeff 5:38 am on Friday, October 4, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 140 )

September Jobs Report

#Jobs — 50-year low in unemployment rate

+136,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 145K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, lowest since 1969
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.3
Wages unchanged, 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged

August revised up from 130K to 168K
July revised up from 159K to 166K

Jeff 12:05 pm on Thursday, October 3, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors for 1.20, IV: 17.18%, SPX 2904.

Jeff 11:37 am on Thursday, October 3, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

COST dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Order was put in hours ago, took awhile to fill.

Jeff 7:02 am on Thursday, October 3, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 140 )

Non-Manufacturing, too?

September #ISM non-manufacturing index fell 3.8 points to 52.6 (lowest since August 2016 & well below even most pessimistic forecast in Bloomberg survey); growth in orders/business activity plunged & employment registered weakest print in more than 5y

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 3, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

#jobs

Jeff 6:51 am on Thursday, October 3, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

COST earnings analysis

#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%

Avg (+ or -) 3.56%
Bias -0.89%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 272.00 to 298.00
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 274.86 to 295.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 260.55 to 309.45
Based on DOWN max only (+5.1%): 299.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 1:47 pm on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.

Jeff 12:48 pm on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX Monday

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2780/2805-2960/2985 condors for 2.80, IV 17.29%, SPX 2889. Using expected move to down side as stop; half expected move to upside.

Jeff 7:06 am on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 )

UBER puts stopped

#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Oct 4th 31 puts for 2.35. Calls previously closed for .05. Strangles sold for .90 on 9/11. This strategy has worked well on UBER, but will wait a few days before starting a new one. My naked puts on $CHWY have NOT worked; underwater. The Upside Warning had me overly confident on both of these.

Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Stop level was breached quickly this morning. BTC $SPX Oct 2nd 2890/2870 put spreads for 2.95. Condors sold yesterday for .867.Also having to close the Oct 4th spread. Stop was not breached yesterday but it was on the opening tick this morning.

Jeff 6:48 am on Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator It seemed obvious days ago but it was just officially canceled. This is only the third total failure of the signal since 1999, out of 44 total, where the SPX made no new high after the signal fired, other than a brief intraday spike the very next day.

Jeff 3:22 pm on Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Schwab at zero

Okay who is with Schwab and can you find out how much SPX option commissions will be?

Jeff 12:24 pm on Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 2870/2890-2980/3000 condors for .867, IV 13.55%, SPX 2946.

Jeff 7:03 am on Tuesday, October 1, 2019

ISM disappoints

US manufacturing economy contracts to worst level in a decade

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

Jeff 11:18 am on Monday, September 30, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2880/2905-3030/3055 condors for 2.40, IV: 14.37%, SPX 2981.

Expiring today: Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3020 condors, sold Friday for 1.10

Jeff 12:35 pm on Friday, September 27, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3025 condors for 1.10, IV 12.31%, SPX 2956.

Jeff 12:02 pm on Friday, September 27, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte. Bought to close $SPX Sept 27th 2935/2915 put spreads for .75. Condors sold yesterday for .95.

Closing Monday’s spread as well, and stuck with almost full loss on today’s spread.

Jeff 12:13 pm on Thursday, September 26, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 2915/2935-34010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 11.80%, SPX 2980.

Jeff 7:49 am on Thursday, September 26, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68%
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 6.74%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 49.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.62 to 52.38
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.70 to 52.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.46 to 55.54
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 45.08

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:27 pm on Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX Monday spread

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 30th 2895/2920-3030/3055 condors for 2.30, IV 11.97%, SPX 2986.

Expiring today: Sep 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors, sold yesterday for .90.

Jeff 12:55 pm on Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors for .90, IV: 14.73%, SPX 2965.

Jeff 12:09 pm on Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX slap

#SPX1dte. I had an order in to close this for .95 this morning. It got down to about 1.20 before the drop happened.

BTC $SPX Sep 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 9.85. Sold for 3.00 yesterday.

Sitting on the Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spread, sold for 5.00 last week. I’m giving that some more time. If formal impeachment inquiries are announced today, I think there’s a chance the market effect will be temporary, as the process will take months, and who really knows how it would effect the economy? But certainly, I’m done with the aggressive put spreads for now.

Jeff 11:29 am on Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%

Avg (+ or -) 4.48%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.82 to 91.68
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.34 to 91.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 77.55 to 96.95
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.10

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:24 am on Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Heavy news day

Stocks jump from session lows after Trump says transcript of his call with the Ukraine president will be released tomorrowhttps://t.co/AQCPR2cshs pic.twitter.com/ruqqTAElER

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 24, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 9:59 am on Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

No Upside

#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.

Jeff 9:43 am on Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

KMX closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Sept 27/Oct04 86 #DoubleCalendar for 1.01 – 1.05, and the stock price hovered around the strike price. Bought yesterday for .48. Meanwhile, hell breaks loose.

Jeff 12:40 pm on Monday, September 23, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 3.00.

Expiring today:
Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045, sold Friday for .50
Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075, sold Wednesday for 2.65

Jeff 10:49 am on Monday, September 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

KMX earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 21, 2019 BO +3.18%
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86%
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%

Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 3.67%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

NOTE: The 5-day results are still bullish, but less so, as extreme one-day up moves tended to fade over the following days.

With stock at 86.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.60 to 92.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 81.81 to 90.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 74.94 to 97.06
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 82.90

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 10:27 am on Monday, September 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%

Avg (+ or -) 4.88%
Bias -1.84%, negative bias on earnings.

NOTE: The 5-day results are more bullish, as extreme one-day down moves tended to fade over the following days.
5-day bias is +0.80%

With stock at 1152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1081.01 to 1223.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1096.22 to 1208.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1016.04 to 1288.96
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1230.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:34 am on Monday, September 23, 2019
Tags: LongCalls ( 495 )

UUP closed

#LongCalls On July 29th I bought $UUP Sept 20th 26 calls for .72. UUP price was 26.58 on that day. I forgot to close Friday so I was assigned, and I just sold the stock for 26.88.

So I had the direction right, but this thing only moves a few pennies in weeks, so profit of .16 on the trade.

Jeff 11:48 am on Friday, September 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045 condors for .50, 10-pt wings, double size.
IV: 9.31%, SPX 3000

Expiring today: Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065, sold yesterday for .75
Sept 20th 2895/2920-3050/3075, sold Monday for 2.45

Jeff 10:56 am on Friday, September 20, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 9/23/19

GDP Thursday morning

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=23&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 10:36 am on Friday, September 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX adding call spread

#SPX1dte Using this Montana dip to add another long… 10 points lower and another day later than yesterday’s:

Bought to Open $SPX Sept 30th 3035/3050 call spreads for 2.50. SPX at 2994.

Jeff 10:25 am on Friday, September 20, 2019

I would like to have seen Montana

BREAKING: Stocks plunge as China delegation cancels trip to Montana to visit farms https://t.co/vOvPSFQvYq pic.twitter.com/KnnMbCfp8I

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 20, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 1:15 pm on Thursday, September 19, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.

Jeff 12:07 pm on Thursday, September 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Upside Warning / Risk Reversal

#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator As an Upside Warning is preparing to fire today (VIX close below 14.50), I’m doing this Risk Reversal for next Friday. I will add more to the long if we get a pullback tomorrow or Monday.

Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3045/3060 bull call spreads for 2.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spreads for 5.80.

Jeff 12:01 pm on Thursday, September 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065 condors for .75, IV 12.64%, SPX 3011.

Jeff 1:04 pm on Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

ADBE closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $ADBE Sept 20th 282.5 #DoubleCalendar for 3.82. Bought yesterday for 1.89 (avg price).

Jeff 1:02 pm on Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075 condors for 2.65, IV 12.90%, SPX 3005.

Expiring today: Sept 18th 2925/2945-3040/3060, sold yesterday for .85

Also, Sept 18th 3010/2985 expires, and based on closing SPX price of 3006.01, it will cash settle at a cost of 3.99. Sold it last Friday for 7.00. I expected a rally after the Fed, but it put me through the ringer first.

Jeff 12:49 pm on Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Just What I Needed

In honor of the late Ric Ocasek, I dedicate this song to myself, as this last-hour rally is just what I needed.

Jeff 7:02 am on Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Tags: postearnings ( 25 )

CHWY puts

#PostEarnings Sold to Open $CHWY Oct 11th 28 puts for 1.50.

This is a recent IPO which, like UBER, hasn’t shown much volatility. It’s also a low-priced stock which minimizes the risk of these ATM puts.

Jeff 11:59 am on Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2925/2945-3040/3060 condors for .85, IV 13.71%, SPX 2998. IV is up from recent series due to Fed announcement. Deltas are .06 and .05