Jeff 8:23 am on Monday, July 29, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

ETN earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $ETN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2019 BO -1.39%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -1.87%
July 31, 2018 BO +3.30%
May 1, 2018 BO -1.55%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO +4.63% Biggest UP
Oct. 31, 2017 BO +0.99%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.52% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +1.28%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO -1.80%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.81%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.10%

Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 81.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.70 to 84.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 78.85 to 83.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.5%): 76.53 to 85.47
Based on UP max only (+4.6%): 84.75

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 8:02 am on Monday, July 29, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

ILMN earnings analysis

#Earnings $ILMN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 25, 2019 AC -1.61%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC -4.44%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -7.74% Biggest DOWN
July 30, 2018 AC +12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC +8.09%

Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 302.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 286.76 to 317.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 285.99 to 318.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 257.24 to 346.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 278.63

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:37 am on Monday, July 29, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

BYND earnings

#Earnings First quarter earnings were reported on June 6th, resulting in a +39.3% one-day move. That move tonight would create a range of 133.54 to 306.46, based on current price of 220.00.
Expected move into Friday on TOS is about 42.20, (although that could change through out the course of the day).
At current price of 220, that would mean a range from 177.80 to 262.20.

The options market looks to be expecting a decent pullback eventually… for January options, the 180 put and 180 call are about the same price.

Jeff 12:47 pm on Friday, July 26, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Volatility is low in this rally, so again going 10-wide, double-size. I wanted to sell earlier but felt it could go another leg higher, and it did.

Sold $SPX July 29th 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors for .40. IV 5.63%, SPX 3026.

Expiring by the skin of my teeth: July 26th 2960/2970-3030/3040, sold for .45 yesterday.

Jeff 10:53 am on Friday, July 26, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 454 )

SWK roll

#Earnings #Rolling My earnings condor is a bust, with the 148/150 call side set to expire ITM, which will be a 2.00 debit, against the .80- credit for selling it on Tuesday. So I’m trying a one-week move to breakeven.

Sold $SWK Aug 2 148/150-152.5/155 condors for 1.30. If we can hold tight enough to expire I should come out flat after accounting for commissions.

Jeff 10:38 am on Friday, July 26, 2019
Tags: Fed ( 4 ), Jobs ( 137 )

Econ Calendar for week of 7/29/19

#Fed Announcement on Wednesday
#Jobs Report on Friday

Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=29&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 6:40 am on Friday, July 26, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

SBUX closed

#Earnings Sold to close $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .26. Bought yesterday for .38. Move was too high so I got out early while puts still have value. I don’t have any hope for a big drop today.

Jeff 12:53 pm on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2960/2970-3030/3040 condors for .45… 10-wide, double size position. IV 9.05%, SPX 3006

Jeff 8:16 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

FFIV & EW closed

#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for 1.61-1.55
Bought yesterday for .88

Sold to close $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 call calendar for .10. #DoubleCalendar bought for 1.30 on Tuesday. Move was too large and assignment of short shares was likely to happen tonight.

Jeff 7:44 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

SBUX earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .38.

$SBUX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 25, 2019 AC +0.44%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +3.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +9.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 AC +1.36%
April 26, 2018 AC -1.71%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -4.22%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.11%
July 27, 2017 AC -9.24% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 AC -2.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -4.00%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.89%
July 21, 2016 AC +0.52%

Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias -0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 90.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.35 to 95.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.71 to 93.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.7%): 81.99 to 99.61
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 82.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:13 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26% Biggest UP
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC +3.32%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -0.61%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1085.58 to 1184.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1097.16 to 1172.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.5%): 1049.88 to 1220.13
Based on UP max only (+4.3%): 1183.35

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:04 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019

Earnings calendar updates

$FSLR confirmed for Aug 1st, after market
$CELG is not confirmed but probably not today

Jeff 6:57 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%

Avg (+ or -) 4.05%
Bias -0.01%, no bias on earnings.

With stock at 1990.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1916.77 to 2063.23
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1909.41 to 2070.60
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1727.12 to 2252.88
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1834.58

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:46 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

SNAP closed

#Earnings Closed final $SNAP calls for 3.25. #LongStraddle bought for 2.06 on Tuesday.

Jeff 6:36 am on Thursday, July 25, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), DoubleCalendars ( 8 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

EFX closed

#Earnings Sold to close $EFX Jul26/Aug02 140 #DoubleCalendar for .70-.74. Could have gotten more now that it has dropped sharply. Bought yesterday for .55.

#doublecalendars

Jeff 1:02 pm on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPXpire

#SPX1dte expiring today:
$SPX July 24th 2955/2975-3025/3045 condors, sold yesterday for .70
$SPX July 24th 2920/2945-3040/3065 condors, sold for 2.85 last Wednesday.

Jeff 9:27 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

EFX analysis and trade

#Earnings $EFX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 10, 2019 BO +0.30%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +2.18%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC -3.48%
April 25, 2018 AC -3.22%
March 1, 2018 AC +5.14% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.41%
April 26, 2017 AC -1.83%
Feb. 8, 2017 AC +5.03%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -4.30%
July 27, 2016 AC -1.39%

Avg (+ or -) 3.69%
Bias -1.58%%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 134.14 to 146.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 135.32 to 145.68
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 119.75 to 161.25
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 147.72

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 8:43 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

NOW earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

NOW has only moved UP on the last 13 earnings reports. Last time it had a down move was Jan 2016.

April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%

Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias +4.64%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 292.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 273.15 to 310.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 278.46 to 305.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 252.84 to 331.16
Based on smallest UP only (+0.7%): 294.16

Open to requests for other symbols.

#brokenwingbutterfly

Jeff 8:12 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

FFIV dub cal

#Earnings Bought $FFIX Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for .82-.85. Not all filled yet.

Jeff 8:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: Rolling ( 454 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX roll

#SPX1dte #Rolling from the stopped spread: Sold $SPX July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors for 3.00.

Note these expire on same day as FOMC decision.

Jeff 7:52 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 26th 3020/3045 call spreads for 3.65. My stop point of half the expected move was breached, so I’m out. This condor was sold Monday for 2.80.

Jeff 7:50 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

FFIV earnings analysis

#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%

Avg (+ or -) 4.43%
Bias -0.78%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.38 to 154.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 140.96 to 154.04
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 133.38 to 161.62
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.3%): 135.33

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:45 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%

Avg (+ or -) 5.51%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 200.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.08 to 212.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.98 to 211.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 162.08 to 237.92
Based on UP Max only (+10.8%): 221.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:21 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Earnings calendar updates:

$EFX reports tonight
$TMUS reports tomorrow morning
$RCL reports tomorrow morning

Jeff 6:42 am on Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

Closing SNAP

#Earnings Sold the first $SNAP long July 126th 14.5 calls for 2.25 and 2.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.06.

Jeff 12:22 pm on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24th 2955/2975-3025/3045 condors for .70, IV 7.48%, SPX 3003.

Jeff 9:44 am on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

E-dub dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.25-1.32. Fills have been erratic but I got ‘er done.

Jeff 8:54 am on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

SNAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, representing its entire history.

April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%

Avg (+ or -) 18.30%
Bias -2.83%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.36 to 16.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 11.85 to 17.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-21.9%): 11.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle

Jeff 8:46 am on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

VFC earnings analysis

#Earnings $VFC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2019 BO -7.64%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +12.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -10.71%
July 20, 2018 BO +4.14%
May 4, 2018 BO -2.79%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO -11.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2017 BO +5.37%
July 24, 2017 BO +0.39%
April 28, 2017 BO -5.56%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +4.58%
Oct. 24, 2016 BO -2.92%
July 22, 2016 BO -1.26%

Avg (+ or -) 5.74%
Bias -1.26%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.18 to 91.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.01 to 91.99
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 76.22 to 97.78
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.1%): 77.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:43 am on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%

Avg (+ or -) 6.34%
Bias -2.92%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 193.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 183.35 to 202.65
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 180.76 to 205.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 160.02 to 225.98
Based on UP Max only (+10.5%): 213.25

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 8:34 am on Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

CMG earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%

Avg (+ or -) 8.24%
Bias 0.62%, tiny positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 684.53 to 779.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 671.71 to 792.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 553.10 to 910.90
Based on DOWN Max only (-14.6%): 625.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 10:14 am on Monday, July 22, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 2905/2930-3020/3045 condors for 2.80.

Jeff 8:59 am on Monday, July 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SWK earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $SWK reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 BO -1.00%
Jan. 22, 2019 BO -15.48% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +1.57%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.27%
April 20, 2018 BO -6.70%
Jan. 24, 2018 BO -1.89%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +4.77% Biggest UP
July 24, 2017 BO -2.10%
April 21, 2017 BO +3.65%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -0.15%
Oct. 27, 2016 BO -1.49%
July 22, 2016 BO +4.80%

Avg (+ or -) 3.91%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 134.94 to 149.06
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 136.45 to 147.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 120.02 to 163.98
Based on UP Max only (+4.8%): 148.82

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:29 am on Monday, July 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

WHR earnings analysis

#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 22, 2019 AC +0.40%
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
July 22, 2016 BO +2.67%

Avg (+ or -) 6.64%
Bias -1.80%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 148.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.70 to 157.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 138.63 to 158.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 126.94 to 170.06
Based on UP Max only (+9.7%): 162.85

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:59 pm on Friday, July 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SKX out

#Earnings Never got another rally so out on the rest for small loss, 4.10.

Jeff 12:41 pm on Friday, July 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 22nd 2920/2940-3010/3030 for .85, IV 7.53%, SPX 2984

Expiring today: July 19th 2940/2960-3015/3035 condors, sold yesterday for .85

Jeff 11:11 am on Friday, July 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

HAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $HAL reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 22, 2019 BO -0.12%
Jan. 22, 2019 BO -3.06%
Oct. 22, 2018 BO -3.03%
July 23, 2018 BO -8.09% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 BO +0.17%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +6.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 23, 2017 BO -2.51%
July 24, 2017 BO -4.21%
April 24, 2017 BO -0.65%
Jan. 23, 2017 BO -2.92%
Oct. 19, 2016 BO +4.24%
July 20, 2016 BO -1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 3.08%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 21.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into NEXT Friday per TOS): 20.58 to 22.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.08 to 22.42
Based on MAXIMUM on-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 19.99 to 23.51
Based on UP Max only (+6.4%): 23.14

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:07 am on Friday, July 19, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 7/22/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=22&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 9:41 am on Friday, July 19, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT rolls

#ContangoETFs I don’t want to get caught deeply OTM that really hammered me in 2016 with NUGT’s 100-point run higher. So I’m rolling strikes that get breached. For today, closed them on the pullback and will consider how to roll in coming days.

BTC $NUGT Sep 20th 35 calls for 5.00. Sold for 2.06 on Jan 31st.
BTC $NUGT Dec 20th 35 calls for 7.35. Sold for 2.95 on June 20th.

Jeff 6:51 am on Friday, July 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStrangles ( 6 )

Earnings closing

#Earnings Sold to close first $SKX July 19th 35 long calls for 4.80 and 5.20. #LongStrangles bought yesterday for 4.38.

Sold more $CSX stock for 72.30. Cost basis 71.34.

Jeff 1:13 pm on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

CSX some stock sold

#Earnings #Assignment Sold some of my CSX stock at 71.50. That amounts to a .16 profit on a losing trade. Will hold the rest for further recovery.

Jeff 12:28 pm on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Jul 19th 2940/2960-3015/3035 condors for .85.

The short put is the same one I just closed earlier, on the longer term spread. Oh, well.

Jeff 11:41 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX trade close

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for .40. Sold for 5.50 on July 8th.
This sucker was up near 3.00 this morning. Got no reason to push my luck for one more day.

Jeff 11:21 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON closed, for real

#Earnings Sold to Close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.38. Bought yesterday for .67.

Jeff 10:42 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStrangles ( 6 )

SKX strangle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SKX July 19th 34.5/35 #LongStrangles for 4.38.

From current price at 34.75, I need a 13.6% move. Avg move on earnings has been 16.5%.

Jeff 8:26 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT flying

#ContangoETFs Keeps notching new highs. No strikes breached yet but it could get ugly before it gets better.

Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for 3.20. Highest available strike.

Jeff 7:45 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%

Avg (+ or -) 16.55%
Bias -0.22%, no significant directional bias on earnings, just a big-move bias.

With stock at 34.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.07 to 38.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.67 to 40.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.12 to 48.58
Based on DOWN Max only (-27.0%): 25.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:54 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON mostly closed – NOT

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.65. Bought yesterday for .67.

Filled on most of my order. Still a few out there but should fill when price meanders back toward my strike.

Jeff 6:52 am on Thursday, July 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%

Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 2.33%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.13 to 140.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 132.11 to 139.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 127.28 to 144.72
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 133.51

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 1:04 pm on Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX 2965/2975-3025/3035 condors, double-sized position sold yesterday for .45.

I skipped monthly expiration 1-dte due to low premium, the volatility spike, and Friday morning settlement.

Jeff 8:27 am on Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings Bought $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for .67.

$HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78%
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 1.80%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 166.66 to 178.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 169.40 to 175.60
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 165.98 to 179.02
Based on DOWN Max only (-2.6%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:03 am on Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.39%
Bias 2.75%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 338.73 to 392.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 338.48 to 392.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 295.98 to 435.02
Based on DOWN Max only (-13.1%): 317.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:47 am on Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24 2920/2945-3040/3065 condors for 2.85.

Jeff 6:36 am on Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX long closed

#SPX1dte STC $SPX July 19th 3025/3040 long call spreads for 1.30. Bought for 1.80 on the 9th. Small loss, but fortunately all the short spreads are killing it.

Jeff 12:11 pm on Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Premium is low so I went 10-wide, double size:

Sold $SPX 2965/2975-3025/3035 condors for .45, IV 7.57%, SPX 3005

Jeff 11:48 am on Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1 dayer

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 18th (monthlies) 2935/2960-3040/3065 condors for .90. Sold yesterday for 2.45.

Jeff 11:36 am on Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

CSX earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings Bought $CSX Jul19/Jul26 79.5 #DoubleCalendar for .33 and .34.

$CSX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC +4.01%
Jan. 16, 2019 AC -0.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -2.06%
July 17, 2018 AC +7.07%
April 17, 2018 AC +7.84% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2018 AC -0.75%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +2.63%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.06% Biggest DOWN
April 19, 2017 AC +5.60%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC -3.17%
Oct. 12, 2016 AC +3.11%
July 13, 2016 AC +2.97%

Avg (+ or -) 3.73%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 79.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.63 to 82.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 76.54 to 82.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 73.27 to 85.73
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.1%): 75.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:06 am on Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

UAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
July 19, 2016 BO +0.29%

Avg (+ or -) 5.44%
Bias -0.22%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 93.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.53 to 97.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.94 to 98.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 81.77 to 104.23
Based on UP Max only (+8.8%): 101.17

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

Jeff 1:01 pm on Monday, July 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX expired

#SPX1dte Expiring today, $SPX July 15th 2960/2980/3030/3050, sold Friday for .85

Jeff 7:50 am on Monday, July 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 3-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 18th 2935/2960-3040/3065 condors for 2.45

Jeff 7:14 am on Monday, July 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%

Avg (+ or -) 1.34%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.

NOTE: 5-day results are not significantly different

With stock at 114.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 110.85 to 117.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 112.48 to 115.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 108.66 to 119.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-2.7%): 110.92

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:05 am on Monday, July 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%

Avg (+ or -) 2.82%
Bias -0.37%, tiny negative bias on earnings.

NOTE: 5-day results are more positive, with a MAX up move of +12%

With stock at 210.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 202.02 to 217.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 204.07 to 215.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 189.97 to 230.03
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.7%): 200.11

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:56 pm on Friday, July 12, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1 dayer

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 24th 2990/2965 put spreads for 4.05. Sold yesterday for 7.70. Couldn’t let such a nice 1-day profit ride.

Jeff 11:22 am on Friday, July 12, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 15th 2960/2980-3030/3050 condors for .85, IV 5.72%, SPX 3008

Jeff 10:48 am on Friday, July 12, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 7/15/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 7:05 am on Friday, July 12, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 454 )

Uber strangle

#Earnings #Rolling
Continuing my revenge campaign on $UBER,
Sold UBER Aug 2nd 41/47 strangles for .85.
Earnings are Aug 8th. On last earnings I bought a long straddle, but stock decided not to move. So now I’m selling strangles, and its working because it still ain’t moving much.

Jeff 1:06 pm on Thursday, July 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Isn’t enough premium in calls, so I only sold a put spread for tomorrow, and couldn’t get filled until after the bell, as it just kept moving higher after I sold the July 24th spread.

Sold $SPX July 12th 2980/2960 put spreads for .70. IV 7.98%, SPX close at 2999.

Jeff 11:36 am on Thursday, July 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 13-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24th 2990/2965 put spreads for 7.60. ATM aggressive spread to take advantage of the Upside Warning. Probably will close this with 50% of max. I honestly meant to sell NEXT Wednesday’s (17th), but mixed up the weeks. I’d rather an ATM spread have a shorter life.

Missed my chances to close my LONG July 12th 3025/3035 call spreads; yesterday’s highs would have been about breakeven (bought for 1.80). Still holding the 3025/3040 longs for July 19th, as well as two short puts spreads that are doing well.

Jeff 11:31 am on Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%

Avg (+ or -) 2.02%
Bias 1.47%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 59.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 57.03 to 61.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 57.90 to 60.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 56.29 to 61.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 58.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:04 am on Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX July 10th 3005/3020 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for .70. The weakness made me doubt the UpW warning again… shouldn’t have sold this call side with both the upside move threatening and Powell testimony today.

Jeff 6:12 am on Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The VIX told us

Dow futures turn positive after Powell sets the stage for a rate cut in testimony to Congress https://t.co/xoGAh6oJmX

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) July 10, 2019

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