#Earnings Kind of asleep at the wheel today, got to earnings very late. Buying a $CREE 58.5dub cal – will post details in a moment.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2840/2850-2945/2955 condors for .55. 10-wide, double sized. IV 14.15%, 2906.
Closed Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads of ra loss at 12.00. Sold for 5.00 last week. Let this run too long, but at least a pullback came today. A weakness in my strategy I must address.
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for 1.12
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 23rd 2815/2840-2980/3005 condors for 2.90. IV 16.68%, SPX 2926.
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $DROP Sept 20th 175 call for 2.00. Sold for 6.70 last Wednesday. Take a cue from Ramie and closing these far OTM calls when I can to help chip away at the burden of short 115 calls that have gone ITM a few times.
HD earnings analysis
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
Avg (+ or -) 1.09%
Bias -0.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 215.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.74 to 209.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 201.51 to 212.49
Based on UP max only (1.6%): 210.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Opened 5 points above stop level, but was able to get out as it faded.
BTC $SPX Aug 19th 2930/2950 for 2.00. Condors sold Friday for 1.15
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 6.14%
Bias -1.85%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 103.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 92.21 to 113.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.68 to 109.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 85.99 to 120.01
Based on UP max only (+9.5%): 112.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/19/19
#Fed minutes Wednesday, Jerome Powell speaks Friday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=19&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
TLRY burned out
#Earnings Looked like it might light up on Wednesday, but this is dropping like a stoned.
$TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly, sold for 2.94 on Tuesday, expiring ITM for 4.00 debit, 1.06 loss.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 19th 2795/2815-2930/2950 condors for 1.15.
Expiring today: Had to watch this all day but looks like I’ll escape with nary a scratch:
Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Also closed: Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for .25, sold Wednesday for 2.70.
Getting crushed on a 2900/2925 call spread for Aug 21st… holding for the weekend as I think we still have some more correcting to do.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors for 1.15, IV 20.82%, SPX 2846
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.36%
Bias 2.84%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.54 to 149.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.86 to 150.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 123.28 to 161.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 131.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 6-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads for 5.00. This offsets 2725/2700 put side sold yesterday. Call side is more aggressive as I believe we are headed lower over coming days. A fourth Downside Warning fired at yesterday’s close, and I don’t think it was the bottom.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 2.60%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.16 to 162.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 105.30 to 194.70
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 121.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.70. I’m delaying the call side until we get a bounce.
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sep 20th 175 calls for 6.70. This should help ease the burden of carrying short 115 calls ITM.
VXX long game
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.95. First purchase of this symbol for the long put play.
Also, adding to my position on $VXX:
Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.25 back on Aug 5th,
Bought more for 1.20 today.
Avg price on my whole batch is now 1.40.
SPX puts closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 16th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.40. This was a thoroughly annoying one. Not only could I have closed it yesterday for probably .20, but I tried to close at the open for under 1.00. Missing my fill, I ended up chasing it down, trying to fill on each bounce, until finally I just had to pull the cord. At least I got the 1.00 profit. I’ll let the calls expire, even through that side traded as high as 8.00 yesterday.
Condors sold Monday for 3.45.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte My stop was hit at the open so my order to close put side filled on the little spike up we just had.
BTC $SPX Aug 14th 2865/2845 put spreads for 3.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
Also, working to close the Aug 16th 2775/2750 put spreads which were sold Monday in a condor. Should have closed yesterday except for deer-in-headlights syndrome.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.76%, SPX 2923
TLRY trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly for 2.95. Risking 1.00 to make 2.95. This has a decent chance of max loss, but the R/R make it worth the shot. Also, three days for it to return to the middle if it moves far tonight.
TLRY earnings analysis
#Earnings $TLRY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 4 quarters, which represent its entire history of earnings reports.
May 14, 2019 AC +0.32%
March 18, 2019 AC -3.39%
Nov. 13, 2018 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 AC +20.64% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.15%
Bias 2.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 43.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.02 to 47.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.50 to 46.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 34.12 to 51.88
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 39.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER strangle stopped
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Aug 30th 37 put for 1.50. The 37/43.5 strangles sold for 1.08 on Friday.
Nice thing about these is how small the loss is if your strike is breached. I will allow the call to close for .05.
I will give it a day or two before selling a new one.
Headline sensitive, anyone?
BREAKING: Stocks jump to session highs, Apple surges more than 4.5% after USTR removes items from China tariff list, delays some others including those on cell phones and laptops https://t.co/4gGcxyFOnV pic.twitter.com/AMmid6LZJY
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 13, 2019
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th (Friday PM) 2750/2775-2950/2975 condors for 3.45, IV 22.57%, SPX 2880.
INTC puts
#PieTrades Sold to Open $INTC Sept 6th 46 puts for 1.50.
Since my on-going favorite $T is not near 52-week lows, I’ve switched to $KHC and INTC for my PieTrades.
YELP closed
#Earnings Sold to close $YELP 34.5 calls for 3.00 average price. Got a couple sold for a small profit this morning, but made the mistake of waiting for it to go higher and it collapsed instead. These are usually winners, but pretty tough to manage. I think I need to try trailing stops.
#LongStrangles bought yesterday for 4.23. This loss and the UBER win cancel each other out.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2840/2860-2970/2990 condors for 1.10. IV: 11.71%, SPX 2929
Expiring today: Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.35
UBER strangles
#Earnings #PerpetualRollingStrangles
Since today’s 39.5/45.5 earnings strangle look to be expiring worthless, I’m resuming what worked for me for a couple months after my earnings losing trade in May:
Sold $UBER Aug 30th 37/43.5 strangles for 1.08
Econ Calendar for week of 8/12/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=12&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Z assignment
#Earnings Sold to close $Z Aug 9th 40 puts for 1.00. Lowers cost basis of tonight’s assignment to 41.74, via assignment of the 44 short puts. Condors sold Wednesday for 1.26.
Smaller account: sold 42 puts for 2.65, cost basis 40.60. Will close the short put if we recover to that level today.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors for 1.35. IV 16.74%, SPX 2928.
A little more aggressive (.07/.08 short deltas) than my usual, but betting on a quieter day after today’s rally.
45 degrees
#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.
YELP trade
#Earnings Bought to Open $YELP Aug 9th 34/34.5 #LongStrangle for 4.23.
UBER earnings trade
#Earnings $UBER has only reported once, on May 30th, and the next day move was +1.5%. (Max intraday was +4.4%)
Expected move on TOS is +/- 3.59.
Sold $UBER Aug 9th 39.5/45.5 strangles for 1.05. Strikes are 7.1% OTM.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
Ketch-down
#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23
thanks for the idea @honkhonk81
SPX bailing
#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.
BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.
Z earnings trade
#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.
SPX 2-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.
DIS earnings analysis
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%
Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX another round
#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.
Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.
Highest VIX
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
SPX put spread
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
NUGT’s up
#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.
SPX 1-dayer
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.
If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/5/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
SWK hammered
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
SPX 1-dte put side closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.
July Jobs Report
#Jobs — matching estimates for a change
+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)
June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K
Another warning
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
New VIX highs
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
If only I’d waited…
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
Sold ANET
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER closed
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
Closing SHOP
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
Don’t panic
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
Upside Warning canceled
More likely to come
ADP closing
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
