#VIXindicator This is one of the more whipsaw-y corrections I can remember. Today was our fifth warning. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but betting on that after the Aug 14th warning got me ripped up as the bounce was strong and protracted. (arrows represent the 4 Downside Warnings)
#SPX1dte. The market was so volatile before the close I waited until after the close to sell this.
Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2735/2755-2915/2935 condors for 1.30. IV 17.82%, SPX closed at 2848.
Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.
Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62
Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.
Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday
#PieTrades. Another one I’m closing with only minor loss, as I don’t want to deal with ITM naked puts or stock holdings in this market.
BTC $INTC Sep 6th 46 puts for 1.61. Sold for 1.49 on Aug 12th.
#PieTrades BTC $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.45.
That is only a third of my position; the other third was assigned. I was set to allow all of it to be assigned, but rather not carry burden of stock. So also unloaded the stock. Since I sold the puts for 1.23 on Aug 8th, this is closing at almost breakeven.
Sold to close $KHC stock for 25.58. Cost basis 25.67.
#SPX1dte. Didn’t follow my rules rigidly enough and waited too long to close these. May mean I got out near the bottom rather than when stops were first hit, when I could have gotten out when SPX was around 2888.
BTC $SPX Aug 23rd 2860/2840 put spreads for 5.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
BTC $SPX Aug 26th 2845/2820 put spreads for 6.75. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15
I went past my stops on Wednesday on the up side, when SPX just couldn’t get any higher after briefly touching 2930. But the call side premium is much lower when almost ATM on expiration day than put side is, so it’s less risky. That one expired worthless. This one may, too, but after missing fills on every bounce before this, I couldn’t risk another tweet-driven violent drop.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=26&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings It would have been a good exit right at the open, but now we’re getting a second shot as price retreats.
Sold to close in phases: .90, 1.20, then when I realized it could drop, I waited for 2.20 on the most recent batch. Now watching to see how much lower it will go for my final lots, driving the premium higher as it gets closer to flat-on-day.
#DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for 1.69.
#Earnings. I must consent that this trade failed.
Paid .01 to close $CREE 58.5 Aug23/Aug30 put calendar. Leaving call side to expire, and be a lottery ticket for next week. #DoubleCalendar bought Tuesday for .67.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 23rd 2840/2860-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.95%, SPX 2924.
#Earnings $GPS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 30, 2019 AC -9.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +4.66%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -8.60%
May 24, 2018 AC -14.56%
March 1, 2018 AC +7.82%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +6.98%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC -0.13%
May 18, 2017 AC -3.92%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +3.04%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC -16.60% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 18, 2016 AC +3.90%
Avg (+ or -) 7.98%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 17.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 15.54 to 19.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 16.33 to 19.17
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.6%): 14.80 to 20.70
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 20.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Bought to open $INTU Aug23/Aug30 275 #DoubleCalendar for 1.69. Pretty good range of profitability: 262 to 288, or 4.7% either way.
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC +6.70% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76%
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
Avg (+ or -) 3.71%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 275.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 260.65 to 289.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.81 to 285.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 256.41 to 293.59
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 264.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte. Another condor, licking wound from smashed call spread this week. Sold a few minutes after release of FOMC minutes.
Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2820/2845-2975/3000 condors for 3.15.
#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias 2.25%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 129.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.69 to 139.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 118.84 to 139.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 105.92 to 152.08
Based on DOWN max only (-10.1%): 115.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $CRM reports TOMORROW after the bell; by request I’m posting analysis today . Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 2.98%
Bias 1.44%%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.86 to 155.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 143.10 to 151.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 132.35 to 162.65
Based on DOWN max only (-4.4%): 141.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $CREE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +2.17%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.11%
Aug. 14, 2018 AC -7.77%
April 24, 2018 AC -0.27%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC +2.74%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +16.42% Biggest UP
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -3.56%
April 25, 2017 AC -11.07%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.18%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -11.07%
Aug. 16, 2016 AC -14.91% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 6.86%
Bias -1.25%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.27 to 63.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.49 to 62.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.4%): 48.89 to 68.11
Based on DOWN max only (-14.9%): 49.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Kind of asleep at the wheel today, got to earnings very late. Buying a $CREE 58.5dub cal – will post details in a moment.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2840/2850-2945/2955 condors for .55. 10-wide, double sized. IV 14.15%, 2906.
Closed Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads of ra loss at 12.00. Sold for 5.00 last week. Let this run too long, but at least a pullback came today. A weakness in my strategy I must address.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for 1.12
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 23rd 2815/2840-2980/3005 condors for 2.90. IV 16.68%, SPX 2926.
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $DROP Sept 20th 175 call for 2.00. Sold for 6.70 last Wednesday. Take a cue from Ramie and closing these far OTM calls when I can to help chip away at the burden of short 115 calls that have gone ITM a few times.
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
Avg (+ or -) 1.09%
Bias -0.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 215.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.74 to 209.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 201.51 to 212.49
Based on UP max only (1.6%): 210.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Opened 5 points above stop level, but was able to get out as it faded.
BTC $SPX Aug 19th 2930/2950 for 2.00. Condors sold Friday for 1.15
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 6.14%
Bias -1.85%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 103.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 92.21 to 113.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.68 to 109.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 85.99 to 120.01
Based on UP max only (+9.5%): 112.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Fed minutes Wednesday, Jerome Powell speaks Friday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=19&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Looked like it might light up on Wednesday, but this is dropping like a stoned.
$TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly, sold for 2.94 on Tuesday, expiring ITM for 4.00 debit, 1.06 loss.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 19th 2795/2815-2930/2950 condors for 1.15.
Expiring today: Had to watch this all day but looks like I’ll escape with nary a scratch:
Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Also closed: Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for .25, sold Wednesday for 2.70.
Getting crushed on a 2900/2925 call spread for Aug 21st… holding for the weekend as I think we still have some more correcting to do.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors for 1.15, IV 20.82%, SPX 2846
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.36%
Bias 2.84%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.54 to 149.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.86 to 150.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 123.28 to 161.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 131.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads for 5.00. This offsets 2725/2700 put side sold yesterday. Call side is more aggressive as I believe we are headed lower over coming days. A fourth Downside Warning fired at yesterday’s close, and I don’t think it was the bottom.
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 2.60%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.16 to 162.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 105.30 to 194.70
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 121.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.70. I’m delaying the call side until we get a bounce.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sep 20th 175 calls for 6.70. This should help ease the burden of carrying short 115 calls ITM.
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.95. First purchase of this symbol for the long put play.
Also, adding to my position on $VXX:
Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.25 back on Aug 5th,
Bought more for 1.20 today.
Avg price on my whole batch is now 1.40.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 16th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.40. This was a thoroughly annoying one. Not only could I have closed it yesterday for probably .20, but I tried to close at the open for under 1.00. Missing my fill, I ended up chasing it down, trying to fill on each bounce, until finally I just had to pull the cord. At least I got the 1.00 profit. I’ll let the calls expire, even through that side traded as high as 8.00 yesterday.
Condors sold Monday for 3.45.
#SPX1dte My stop was hit at the open so my order to close put side filled on the little spike up we just had.
BTC $SPX Aug 14th 2865/2845 put spreads for 3.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
Also, working to close the Aug 16th 2775/2750 put spreads which were sold Monday in a condor. Should have closed yesterday except for deer-in-headlights syndrome.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.76%, SPX 2923
#Earnings Sold to Open $TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly for 2.95. Risking 1.00 to make 2.95. This has a decent chance of max loss, but the R/R make it worth the shot. Also, three days for it to return to the middle if it moves far tonight.
#Earnings $TLRY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 4 quarters, which represent its entire history of earnings reports.
May 14, 2019 AC +0.32%
March 18, 2019 AC -3.39%
Nov. 13, 2018 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 AC +20.64% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.15%
Bias 2.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 43.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.02 to 47.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.50 to 46.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 34.12 to 51.88
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 39.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Aug 30th 37 put for 1.50. The 37/43.5 strangles sold for 1.08 on Friday.
Nice thing about these is how small the loss is if your strike is breached. I will allow the call to close for .05.
I will give it a day or two before selling a new one.
BREAKING: Stocks jump to session highs, Apple surges more than 4.5% after USTR removes items from China tariff list, delays some others including those on cell phones and laptops https://t.co/4gGcxyFOnV pic.twitter.com/AMmid6LZJY
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 13, 2019
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th (Friday PM) 2750/2775-2950/2975 condors for 3.45, IV 22.57%, SPX 2880.
#PieTrades Sold to Open $INTC Sept 6th 46 puts for 1.50.
Since my on-going favorite $T is not near 52-week lows, I’ve switched to $KHC and INTC for my PieTrades.
#Earnings Sold to close $YELP 34.5 calls for 3.00 average price. Got a couple sold for a small profit this morning, but made the mistake of waiting for it to go higher and it collapsed instead. These are usually winners, but pretty tough to manage. I think I need to try trailing stops.
#LongStrangles bought yesterday for 4.23. This loss and the UBER win cancel each other out.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2840/2860-2970/2990 condors for 1.10. IV: 11.71%, SPX 2929
Expiring today: Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.35
#Earnings #PerpetualRollingStrangles
Since today’s 39.5/45.5 earnings strangle look to be expiring worthless, I’m resuming what worked for me for a couple months after my earnings losing trade in May:
Sold $UBER Aug 30th 37/43.5 strangles for 1.08
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=12&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Sold to close $Z Aug 9th 40 puts for 1.00. Lowers cost basis of tonight’s assignment to 41.74, via assignment of the 44 short puts. Condors sold Wednesday for 1.26.
Smaller account: sold 42 puts for 2.65, cost basis 40.60. Will close the short put if we recover to that level today.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors for 1.35. IV 16.74%, SPX 2928.
A little more aggressive (.07/.08 short deltas) than my usual, but betting on a quieter day after today’s rally.
#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.
#Earnings Bought to Open $YELP Aug 9th 34/34.5 #LongStrangle for 4.23.
#Earnings $UBER has only reported once, on May 30th, and the next day move was +1.5%. (Max intraday was +4.4%)
Expected move on TOS is +/- 3.59.
Sold $UBER Aug 9th 39.5/45.5 strangles for 1.05. Strikes are 7.1% OTM.
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23
thanks for the idea @honkhonk81
#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.
BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.
#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%
Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.
Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.
If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
