Jeff 9:04 am on Monday, July 8, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

PEP earnings analysis

#Earnings $PEP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 17, 2019 BO +3.75%
Feb. 15, 2019 BO +2.94%
Oct. 2, 2018 BO -1.79% Biggest DOWN
July 10, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +2.08%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO -0.18%
Oct. 4, 2017 BO +0.19%
July 11, 2017 BO -0.46%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.72%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO -0.17%
Sept. 29, 2016 BO +0.35%
July 7, 2016 BO +1.48%

Avg (+ or -) 1.57%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 128.62 to 135.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.92 to 134.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 125.72 to 138.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 129.64

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:14 am on Monday, July 8, 2019

Upside Warning data

Here’s a new chart examining the data from all occurrences of the upside warning since 1/1/2000.

–Chart includes first 20 days of each day’s SPX HIGH, as a percentage above or below the CLOSING PRICE of the Upside Warning firing date (in the current case, it fired on Friday)
–Blue represent occurrences when the highest move was +1.0% or higher
–Yellow represents a highest move up of less than 1.0%
–Red represents no move higher before the warning is canceled
–Final columns on right are:
—-Number of days in the warning before it was canceled
—-Highest point of SPX during that UpW
—-Lowest SPX high BEFORE the highest point was reached

As you can see, several UpW’s start with a pullback, sometimes quite deep. But eventually, out of 42 warnings, the SPX moved higher 92% of the time, and moved at least 1% higher 83% of the time.

Click on the chart for larger view.

Jeff 7:57 am on Monday, July 8, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX longer

#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte
Taking advantage of more pullback to get longer.

Sold $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for 5.50
Bought $SPX July 19th 3025/3040 call spreads for 1.80

I’m working on a chart of Upside Warning data… will post shortly.

Jeff 3:57 pm on Sunday, July 7, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Look out above

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close Friday. This signal has been over 90% effective since 2000, leading to at least a 1.5% short-term gain in the S&P. Expect new record highs over the next couple of weeks.

Jeff 11:28 am on Friday, July 5, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors for .95. IV: 6.06%, SPX 2988.

Jeff 6:44 am on Friday, July 5, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 137 )

June Jobs Report

#Jobs — big reversal from May’s disappointment

+224,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, up 0.1
U6 unemployment at 7.2%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.1

May revised down from 75K to 72K
April revised down from 224K to 216K

Jeff 10:13 am on Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Tags: RiskReversal ( 86 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX and away

#SPX1dte I think we’re on our way up, folks. Barring some major event, Upside Warning should fire on Friday, and should lead to a follow through to at least 3040 over the next week or two.

#RiskReversal
Sold $SPX July 12th 2970/2945 put spreads for 3.90.
Bought $SPX July 12th 3025/3035 LONG call spreads for 1.80

Jeff 1:06 pm on Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Risk too big

#SPX1dte Since the day ended with a spike higher, and the we have the first $VIX close below the 78.6 Fib line, we could see a “quiet” low volume rally tomorrow, and my double-sized condor is not worth the risk, being only 17 points away from today’s close.

Closed $SPX July 3rd 2990/3010 call spreads for .65. Condors sold for .45 an hour ago. I’ll keep the downside put risk on.

Jeff 12:07 pm on Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 3rd 2910/2930-2990/3010 condors for .45. I meant to go for 10-wide, double size, but mistakenly went my normal 20-size, double size. So double the risk than usual, but looking for a quiet holiday anyway.

Jeff 12:31 pm on Monday, July 1, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 9-dte closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 5th 3000/3025 call spreads for .90. Sold condor for 3.90 last Wednesday. I’ll let the puts expire.

Also, expiring today: July 1st 2825/2845-3000/3025 condors, sold Friday for 1.35.

Jeff 9:45 am on Monday, July 1, 2019
Tags: pietrades ( 240 )

T closed

#PieTrades Bought to close $T July 19th 32 puts for .10. Sold for 1.48 on April 9th. Will sell again on next move down.

Jeff 6:05 am on Monday, July 1, 2019

Low VIX

Good morning… looks like we’ll get the lowest VIX open since early May, when the Downside Warning hit. If it holds below 13.67 into the close we could be en route to an Upside Warning.

Jeff 10:50 am on Friday, June 28, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 137 )

Econ Calendar for week of 7/1/19

#Jobs report on Friday

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 6:45 am on Friday, June 28, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Sold SPX early

#SPX1dte Taking exception to my normal rules and selling Monday’s 1-dte in the morning…. I don’t expect much movement today, and using the morning volatility and additional theta value to get good premium and a wide condor for Monday, which could see a strong move with news from China talks.

Sold $SPX July 1st 2825/2845-3000/3025 condors for 1.35, IV 16.2%, SPX 2934.

Jeff 5:51 am on Friday, June 28, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold Thursday: $SPX Jun 28th 2870/2890-2955/2975 condors for 1.00. IV: 10.66%, SPX 2928

Jeff 6:52 am on Thursday, June 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

STZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%

Avg (+ or -) 5.28%
Bias 2.88%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 174.86 too 195.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 175.24 to 194.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 162.04 to 207.96
Based on UP Max only (+9.8%): 203.04

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:49 am on Thursday, June 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%

Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 83.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.27 to 87.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 79.42 to 87.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 74.13 to 92.67
Based on DOWN Max only (-7.1%): 77.52

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:36 am on Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

WBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
July 6, 2016 BO -2.35%

Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias -2.21%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 52.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.93 to 55.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.46 to 54.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 45.95 to 59.45
Based on UP Max only (+5.0%): 55.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:32 am on Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 9-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 5th 2800/2825-3000/3025 condors for 3.90. IV: 16.22%, SPX 2923

Jeff 7:10 am on Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX safety

#SPX1dte I closed my short June 26th 2875 puts for .05. When I woke up I was worried about the call side. Now I’m just being safe because I don’t trust this market to the downside.

Jeff 12:53 pm on Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jun 26th 2865/2875-2945/2955 condors for .55. Due to lower premium I am trying a different approach: wings that are only 10-wide and double the position size. Risk is theoretically the same… and it should be the same in practice too, as the spreads will be cheaper to exit when stops are hit since the closer-in long options will have more value.

IV: 10.79%, SPX 2916

Jeff 6:48 am on Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 6.39%
Bias 0.79%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 33.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.71 to 36.29
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.36 to 36.54
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 29.25 to 37.75
Based on DOWN Max only (-9.2%): 30.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:36 am on Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 26th 2900/2875 put spreads for .30. Condors sold Friday for 2.45; will let the 3000/3025 call side expire.

Also, expired yesterday: June 24th 2890/2910-2985/3000 condors, sold Friday for .65

Jeff 6:35 am on Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%

Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias -1.39%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 158.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.85 to 167.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 151.54 to 164.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 138.79 to 177.21
Based on UP Max only (+6.9%): 168.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 2:48 pm on Monday, June 24, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator It’s been awhile since we started this Warning, so I missed the fact that it was canceled on Thursday with the new SPX high. So now we set up for either a new Downside Warning or an Upside Warning. See the sidebar for those levels.

Jeff 6:32 am on Monday, June 24, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT rising

Higher strikes added.

#contangoetfs

Jeff 12:43 pm on Friday, June 21, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte. Sold $SPX June 24th 2890/2910-2985/3000 condors for .65, IV 7.63%, SPX 2965. Another day of low premium as IV has plummeted.

Expiring, June 21st 2890/2910-2990/3010 condors, sold yesterday for .65

Jeff 9:05 am on Friday, June 21, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX roll

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 26th 2875/2900-3000/3025 condors for 2.45.

Jeff 7:04 am on Friday, June 21, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

KMX closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought yesterday for .43. Only got filled on 3, was going for 17. 😦

Jeff 12:44 pm on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 21st 2890/2910-2990/3010 condors for .65, IV 13%, SPX 2954.

Jeff 9:19 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019

Blow off top?

SPX plunging, Gold rising, VIX spiking.

Jeff 9:18 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Takeover

RHT long shot

#Earnings #Takeover Bought $RHT June 21st 190 calls for .06, .09, .10.

I doubt this will go anywhere but it’s costing me almost nothing. Was filled for .09 on IB, then TOS would only allow .05 increments, so bought there for .10, then went back to IB, bidding .09 for more and was filled for .06. I was charged zero commission for the .09 bunch, but 1.44 per option on the .06 bunch.

Brokers can be nutty.

Jeff 9:15 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 9-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Jun 26th 2960/2985 calls spreads for 5.60. Condors sold for 3.00 on Monday.

Jeff 8:25 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

KMX dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.

Jeff 8:21 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

KMX earnings analysis

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 8:05 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

RHT earnings ???

#Earnings $RHT reports tonight, but there is no volatility or premium in options expiring tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going on, because all sources say it reports tonight. Time to buy a buttload of long straddles? Anyone know what’s up?

Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2019 AC +0.29%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC 0.00%
Sept. 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
June 21, 2018 AC -14.23%
March 26, 2018 AC +0.86%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -5.32%
Sept. 25, 2017 AC +4.07%
June 20, 2017 AC +9.58%
March 27, 2017 AC +5.20%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -13.88%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +3.86%
June 22, 2016 AC -1.70%

Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias -1.48%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 188.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.23 to 189.77 (???)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 178.21 to 198.79
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.2%): 161.88 yo 215.32
Based on UP Max only (+9.6%): 206.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:52 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT at 1-year highs

#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Dec 35 calls for 2.85
Also followed @Ramie77, sold Sept 35 calls for 1.40

Jeff 7:49 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 454 )

UBER rolling continues

#Earnings BTC $UBER June 21st 40/46 strangles for .15. Sold for 1.05 on June 5th, as a roll from busted earnings trade.

#Rolling again: Sold $UBER July 12th 42/48 strangles for 1.25. Only partial fill, may have to lower to 1.20.

Jeff 6:42 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX June 20th (monthlys) 2970/2990 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Cannot allow this to sit overnight as settlement on monthlys is Friday morning’s open. I’ll let the put side expire then.

Jeff 6:13 am on Thursday, June 20, 2019

Good morning

All things hinge on the Fed… finally getting the VIX drop that just would not come.

Jeff 11:52 am on Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 20th (monthly) 2845/2865-2970/2990 condors for 1.00, IV: 16.31%, SPX 2922.

Jeff 9:17 am on Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Get out the way

#SPX1dte Closing call side on a couple condors before the FOMC report. I see the possibility of a strong rally if rates cut, but not a huge dive if they are not. Even so, I have a lot of room to downside in the put sides; call sides were tighter.

BTC $SPX june 19th 2965/2985 call spreads for .20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00.
BTC June 20th (monthlys) 2960/2980 call spreads for 1.90. Condors sold for 2.50 on June 12th.

Jeff 8:21 am on Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

ORCL earnings analysis

#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 14, 2019 AC -0.20%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 52.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.84 to 55.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.07 to 54.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 47.55 to 57.45
Based on UP Max only (+8.6%): 56.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:07 pm on Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 19th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.00. IV: 15.24%, SPX 2920.

IV has spiked due to Fed announcement tomorrow. Manage risk and watch your positions for the 2pm ET release.

Jeff 8:38 am on Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

ADBE earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72%

Avg (+ or -) 3.76%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 278.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.34 to 290.66
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 268.03 to 288.97
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 258.23 to 298.77
Based on UP Max only (+7.1%): 298.30

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:21 am on Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 454 )

Closed AVGO

#Earnings #Rolling BTC $AVGO June 21st 267.5/262.5 put spreads for .40. Sold Friday for 2.40 as a roll from busted earnings trade. Ending profit from original condor sale: .85.

Jeff 6:49 am on Tuesday, June 18, 2019

FOMC decision on rate cut is tomorrow

2pm ET

Jeff 8:32 am on Monday, June 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 9-dte

#SPX1dte Happy Summer Solstice Week, everyone!

Building back some of the hits I took on the screaming run higher:

Sold $SPX June 26th 2770/2795-2960/2985 condors for 3.00.
Smaller account i sold the 5-wide with same shorts for .75

Jeff 12:35 pm on Friday, June 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 454 )

AVGO roll

#Earnings #Rolling Sold $AVGO June 21st 267.5/262.5 put spreads for 2.40.

I have the 270/267.5 put spread expiring today, so at the moment it will be max loss of 2.50. So I rolled to next week, going down ne stark and also widening to 5.

But it is rallying now so loss may be less than 2.50. I wanted to sell the roll before its price dropped much more.

Jeff 12:02 pm on Friday, June 14, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 17th 2830/2850-2915/2935 condors for .90. (IV 7.28%, SPX 2887)

Expiring today: June 14th 2825/2845-2915/2935 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00

Jeff 10:52 am on Friday, June 14, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 6/24/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 12:17 pm on Thursday, June 13, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 14th 2825/2845-2915/2935 condors for 1.00. (IV: 11.41%, SPX 2882)

Jeff 12:07 pm on Thursday, June 13, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), IronCondor ( 244 )

AVGO condor

#Earnings Sold $AVGO 267.5/270/290/292.5 #IronCondor for 1.35. Better than 1:1, with a bullish lean.

Jeff 6:56 am on Thursday, June 13, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%

Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias 1.88%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 282.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 265.11 to 299.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.94 to 294.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 258.52 to 306.48
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.8%): 268.91

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

Jeff 1:15 pm on Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Friday.

Expired: June 12th 2825/2845/2920/2940, sold yesterday for .95.

Jeff 8:26 am on Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%

Avg (+ or -) 18.96%
Bias 2.28%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 93.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.98 to 108.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.77 to 111.23
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 51.66 to 135.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-25.7%): 69.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:49 am on Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%

Avg (+ or -) 12.10%
Bias 4.21%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 171.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 154.13 to 187.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 150.32 to 191.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 130.93 to 211.07
Based on UP Max only (+16.3%): 198.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:49 am on Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Tags: Rolling ( 454 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX roll

#SPX1dte #Rolling Maybe a period of consolidation after hitting against 2900 resistance?

Sold $SPX June 20th (monthlys) 2765/2785/2960/2980 condors for 2.50.

Jeff 12:04 pm on Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 12th 2825/2845-2920/2940 condors for .95. (IV 11.85%, SPX 2881)

Jeff 1:11 pm on Monday, June 10, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPXpire

#SPX1dte No trades today… but this expired:
$SPX June 10th 2805/2825-2920/2940 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

Jeff 1:08 pm on Friday, June 7, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), IronCondor ( 244 ), OptionsExpiration ( 796 )

Expiring

#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #IronCondor
$FIVE 117/120-138/141 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.31

Have a good weekend all!

Jeff 11:56 am on Friday, June 7, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX June 10th 2805/2825-2920/2940 condors for 1.00. IV: 10.4%, SPX 2875.

Last Friday I sold the 2820/2800… but they were the CALL side.

Jeff 10:34 am on Friday, June 7, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 6/10/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=10&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 10:09 am on Friday, June 7, 2019
Tags: Market ( 69 )

Euphoria and fear

#Market The Indices continuing a searingly bullish week, but the $VIX is spiking today as well.

I got filled on this trade as the market was going UP…

Sold $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for 2.50. (SPX 2877)

Jeff 6:40 am on Friday, June 7, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Closed the call spread I sold yesterday… bullish action not stopping. Still a couple points above the 13.67 VIX level that would cancel the Downside Warning. But given the action, I have to stop selling call spreads. Will look to try some put spreads on any minor pullback.

Stopped $SPX June 10th 2870/2895 call spreads for 5.25. Sold yesterday for 2.50.

Also watching June 14th 2890/2915 calls, which have a current stop point of 2867.

Jeff 5:34 am on Friday, June 7, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 137 )

May Jobs Report

#Jobs — big drop from April’s blowout

+75,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 180K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.1%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.2%, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.8%, unchanged

April revised down from 263K to 224K
March revised down from 189K to 153K

Jeff 11:42 am on Thursday, June 6, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 5-dte roll

#SPX1dte Tempting fate, I know. Sold $SPX June 10th (Monday) 2870/2895 call spreads for 2.50.

Jeff 11:16 am on Thursday, June 6, 2019

Commissions

I’m working on a spreadsheet and I’d like to know the various commission structures that you all have (or have had in the past). Can everyone reading this give me a brief explanation in the comments? I will start with what I get from Interactive Brokers. If someone else has already commented with the same structure you have or have had, please don’t repeat it.

I am not looking for dollar amounts (although it is fine if you include them). I mainly need the structure; i.e., if there is a ticket charge, if per option price goes down with higher quantity, if there are set prices on all options or if index/ETF/ etc have different prices, etc.

Thanks!

Jeff 12:57 pm on Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 9-dte

#SPX1dte Too much bullish action not to sell something.

Sold $SPX June 14th 2890/2915 call spreads for 2.00, IV 14.39%, SPX 2826

Jeff 11:58 am on Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), IronCondor ( 244 )

FIVE condor

#Earnings Selling this with a bullish lean based on its history… -3.2% on downside, +11.3% on upside

Sold $FIVE June 7th 117/120-138/141 #IronCondor for 1.31.

Jeff 8:40 am on Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 ), ShortStrangle ( 18 ), StrangleRoll ( 49 ), ThatDidntTakeLong

UBER roll

#Earnings #StrangleRoll #ThatDidntTakeLong

Sold this strangle Friday as a roll from losing #LongStraddle. Already breached, so rolling. Fortunately, the ATM options are not much more than the strangle sold for.

BTC $UBER June 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.40. Sold for 1.00 on Friday.
STO $UBER June 21st 40/46 #ShortStrangle for 1.05

Jeff 8:16 am on Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SFIX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, its entire history on the exchange.

March 11, 2019 AC +25.20%
Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%

Avg (+ or -) 20.18%
Bias -2.96%, slightly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 23.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.80 to 27.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.76 to 28.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 15.24 to 31.76
Based on UP Max only (+26.5%): 29.72

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:46 am on Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%

Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 5.25%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 124.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 113.86 to 134.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 115.89 to 132.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 96.89 to 151.11
Based on DOWN Max only (-3.4%): 119.72

Open to requests for other symbols.