#SPX1dte Expiring today: $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors, sold Monday for 1.10.
#Contango ETFs: Closed $SOXL May 75 put for 12.00. Sold for 13.60. Now out of SOXL.
Happy New Year, everyone!
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors for 1.10.
BOIL out
#ContangoETFs Closing out the year by closing out final $BOIL positions. Was forced out of Jan 45 short calls by the spike higher… made some back with rolls, but still at a loss overall. I will reserve this symbol for large seasonal spikes in the future.
Closed BOIL Mar 50 call for .90. Sold for 4.15.
Closed BOIL June 66 call for .70. Sold for 7.20.
Best and Worst
Here are the best and worst performing stocks of this tough and volatile year for the market. https://t.co/LC2Zt7pE8X pic.twitter.com/VZo9Og3p77
— CNBC (@CNBC) December 31, 2018
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Waiting for last hour to sell for Wednesday’s expiration.
Calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .79
Sold $SQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .74
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 2360/2380-2570/2590 for 1.40.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed yesterday’s for .25 total. With the rolls I had to execute yesterday, the full trade ends up with a .35 loss.
Waiting until closer to the close to sell today’s, to avoid that kind of mess!
Econ Calendar for week of 12/31/18
#Jobs report is Friday. And Powell speaks later that morning.
Link to calendar: https://optionsbistro.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/screen-shot-2018-09-24-at-6-07-52-am.png
SPX 1-dte roll
#SPX1dte What a face ripper!
Sold the condor below for 1.30 with 48 minutes before close when SPX was at 2440.
The call side hit my stop 20 minutes later (expected move breached short strike) with SPX going past 2475.
Stopped call side, BTC for 2.65.
Sold new call side: $SPX Dec 28th 2565/2585 for .75.
Then rolled put side after the bell: Closed 2340/2320 for .10.
Sold 2400/2380 for .60.
So best I can do tomorrow is small loss, near breakeven. Bonkers market… gotta wait until last 10 minutes on this trade to be safe.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX 2320/2340-2520/2540 condors for 1.30. Shorts are 180 apart.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed shorts for .05 each. On Monday, sold the 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Tomorrow I’ll sell one for the Friday expiration.
SQ closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .07. Sold for .75 on Friday.
On Christmas Eve?
#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve.
May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!
TQQQ calls covered
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .10. Sold for .85 on Friday.
SPX 1 -dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 26th 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Short strikes 235 points apart.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Selling one for Wednesday expiration before the close.
UVXY spreads & overall approach
#VXXGame My attempts at legging out of the $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads were also a failure, but only a bit worse than allowing them to expire. Sold for 5.68 (avg price), some will expire for 10.00, some closed for 10.60, and assigned short shares on a couple others, cost basis 69.43.
Also, I took off some risk this week without rolling. First we’ve experience a market like this 2008, and I wasn’t trading then. I hold very few short options positions compared to many times in the past, and my remaining short $UVXY calls are hedged with a greater number of long calls, albeit much further OTM.
Suffice it to say the only thing working right now are the 1-day SPX condors. I’m finished trying any more directional positions until market is clearly finished with this. If we go much lower, I will continue to shed positions slowly.
BTC $UVXY Mar 15th 75 call for 16.00, sold for 6.125, avg price, in Sept/Oct
BTC $UVXY March 15th 95 call for 10.15, breakeven, sold for 10.15 in late October.
Closed $SOXL Feb 15th 75 put for 12.70. Sold for 7.00 as a roll.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I tried to leg out and leg in to the condors today. I continue to suck at those attempts like no other. This time, I paid more than necessary to exit today’s condor, but still with a profit. I was mildly successful at legging in to Monday’s.
Closed $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for .60 total. Sold for 1.05 yesterday.
Sold $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for 1.40 total.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/24/18
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
So touchy
This is perhaps the most sensitive market to seemingly low impact headlines that I can remember…
BREAKING: Stocks spike to session high after NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could reevaluate its view in 2019 https://t.co/VO5GKms1AL pic.twitter.com/1Zrhcbqyxs
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 21, 2018
Covered Calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls These would have been better yesterday, but couldn’t catch it.
Sold $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .75
Sold $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .85
It will be hilarious if I just sold at the bottom! Oh, how we will laugh.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for 1.05.
VIX touches above 30…
…and we get a 30-point SPX bounce… is that what everyone was waiting for to buy?
Let’s add gov’t shutdown to the mix!
Average S&P 500 stock is now
D
O
W
N
over 25% from its 52-week high. https://t.co/RXsMXKjJaR pic.twitter.com/Ov9xJk0h6R— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 20, 2018
Plunge accelerating
VIX spiking
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed entire condor, $SPX Dec 20th 2360/2380-2585/2605 for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.30.
At the end of today, I will sell a new one for tomorrow’s PM expiration.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC 11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC 0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC 10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC 0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.14%
Bias 0.40%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 64.42 to 73.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 66.14 to 71.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 61.33 to 76.67
Open for requests on other symbols.
UVXY spreads
#VXXgame I had sold $UVXY 50/60 Dec 21st call spreads(for 4.35 and 7.00) in belief volatility would be calmed going into Xmas. Wrong.
On one account, I was assigned short stock at 50.00. I sold the long 60 calls for 12.60 today, and covered stock f0r 71.10, meaning out of the spread for 8.50.
On the other accounts trying to close one of the spreads for 9.30 but not getting filled. I’ll see if assigned tonight and deal with closing on the swings tomorrow.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2360/2380-2585/2605 condors for 1.30. Stop trading at 4:15pm tomorrow, settle Friday morning. I will close the trade during trading hours tomorrow.
Shorts are 205 points apart.
SPX trades
Before the announcement:
Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2650/2670 call spreads for 1.20. This was betting on an explosion higher, and perhaps a quick double into tomorrow. So far, not looking good.
After the announcement
Sold to open Feb 14th (monthlys) 2300/2280 put spreads for 1.95. Partial roll from January spread stopped earlier this week.
Looking to sell the 1-dte trade in the next hour.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX 2435/2415 put spreads for .15. Looking to close call side on a pullback. If none comes I will stop out when condor is near breakeven.
SPX 1 -dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 19th 2415/2435-2635/2655 condors for 1.25. Shorts are 200 points apart. Will try to close before Fed announcement at 2pm ET tomorrow.
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53% Biggest DOWN
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC 2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC 1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC 2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC 6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC 11.83% Biggest UP
Dec. 16, 2015 AC 2.02%
Avg (+ or -) 3.94%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 183.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 172.43 to 195.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 176.51 to 190.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 162.01 to 205.49
Open for requests on other symbols.
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC 0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC 8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC 7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC 12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.12%
Avg (+ or -) 5.11%
Bias 0.46%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 31.72 to 37.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.97 to 36.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s 12.7%): 30.34 to 39.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors. Sold Friday for 1.05.
Also, stopped $SPX Jan 17th 2420/2400 put spreads for 3.65, since expected move breached my short puts. These were sold as a roll from a stopped #SPX1dte spread (sold condor for 3.00 on Nov 20). With one roll down of the call side, I’m getting out of this with only a .20 profit (or basically breakeven after commissions). Will look to roll into a new condor later this week.
Double down
Bought more $SPX Dec 28th long 2700/2720 call spreads for .85 (first batch bought this morning for 1.80). With a double position it is easier to sell half at a decent profit and let the other half ride as long as I can. After today’s action the only thing I can be playing for is a rally after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. And by rally, I don’t mean much higher than 2700 before we probably resume the downtrend.
New UVXY high
#VXXGame We just exceeded the 10/29 high of this correction on $UVXY.
The $VIX is still 3 points below its correction high set on 10/11.
We are setting up today to hit our 7th downside warning in this correction.
BOIL closed
#ContangoETFs Closed the last of my $BOIL Jan 45 calls for 3.30. I’m underwater despite a few rolls, but this is closest to the money that I had. I want to be ready should we get another winter push higher.
Covered Calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .10. Sold for .90 on Thursday.
BTC $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .10. Sold for .84 on Thursday
…by the roadside in a ditch
Watching the carnage, this one came to mind. (click the photo)
SPX long
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 28th 2700/2720 call spreads for 1.80. Looking for a trickle higher into the end of the year.
Kinda what I’ve been expecting…
…but so far, still waiting…
$SPX: clean tag of lower trend line as support.
New lows show a positive RSI divergence.
If this trend line holds and the structure plays as a falling wedge a very sizable rally could emerge.
Previous breakout attempt failed.
Targets would include MA reconnects. pic.twitter.com/9UrAfk889d— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) December 17, 2018
Closed SOXL call
#ContangoETF’s While short puts continue to decay (very slowly), closed $SOXL Feb 150 call for .90. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd. I’ll sell more calls on any rally.
ORCL earnings analysis
#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, since expiration is 4 days away on Friday.
**** FIVE-DAY moves ****
Mon 09/17/2018 AC 3.90%
Tue 06/19/2018 AC -4.68%
Mon 03/19/2018 AC -13.79% Biggest DOWN
Thu 12/14/2017 AC -4.74%
Thu 09/14/2017 AC -8.99%
Wed 06/21/2017 AC 9.77% Biggest UP
Wed 03/15/2017 AC 5.06%
Thu 12/15/2016 AC -4.55%
Thu 09/15/2016 AC -4.38%
Thu 06/16/2016 AC 3.49%
Tue 03/15/2016 AC 7.07%
Wed 12/16/2015 AC -6.39%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias -1.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.70 the data suggests these ranges into Friday’s expiration.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 43.62 to 49.78
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 43.71 to 49.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 40.26 to 53.14
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 14th 2580 puts for .20.
Sold $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors for 1.05.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/17/18
Fed decision released Wednesday at 2pm ET
Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=17&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 14th 2700 calls for .05. Stop level on the put spread is the expected move to the short put… EM is currently 24.00, so stop is 2604 for the 2580/2560 put spread. Unless we breach that level I will look to exit for .05 or .10. Sold condor yesterday for 1.05.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 14th 2560/2580-2700/2720 condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow.
Also, a 45-dte roll from last month…
BTC $SPX Jan 17th 2950/2970 call spreads for .20. Sold 11/20 in a condor for 3.00 (2420/2400 puts still active)
Rolled to Jan 17th 2800/2820 call spreads, sold today for 2.55.
Calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .90
Sold $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .84
PVTL calls closed
#Earnings #CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Dec 21st 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .80 on Tuesday. Earning report has had little effect on the stock. Cost basis 19.00. Will continue to hold and sell calls.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC 3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC 3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC 3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%
Dec. 8, 2015 AC -5.41%
Avg (+ or -) 3.17%
Bias -0.75%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 229.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 220.17 to 237.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 221.75 to 236.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.0%): 215.33 to 242.67
Open for requests on other symbols.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 13, 2018 AC 2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC 3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC 1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC 2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC 3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC 7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72% Biggest DOWN
March 17, 2016 AC 3.84%
Dec. 10, 2015 AC 2.76%
Avg (+ or -) 3.38%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 251.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 239.69 to 262.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 242.53 to 259.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.1%): 233.15 to 268.85
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Nov 12th 2560/2580/2715/2735 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Another KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $KOLD Dec 21st 12 put for .80. Sold for 2.30 on 11/19.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 12th 2560/2580/2715/2735 condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow.
Calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Closed $SQ Dec 14th 66 calls for .37. Sold yesterday for .72.
Closed $TQQQ Dec 14th 47 calls for .85. Sold yesterday for .80.
Slight profit and about breakeven on what I sold yesterday, since both very close to being breached this morning. Will replace on next big move.
KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs
Closed $KOLD Dec 21st 8 put for .20 and 9 put for .25. Both sold for 1.20 each on 11/19, as part of a roll campaign from ITM $BOIL calls.
PVTL covered Calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold $PVTL Dec 21st 21 calls for .80. This order has been in for a couple weeks, but only today did it finally fill, and earnings are tonight. Was assigned via 22.5 puts on 9/20. This sale brings my cost basis down to 18.95.
AAPL stock
#LongStock #Dividends
Bought $AAPL stock for 168.00. Starter position. Seems like a possible bottom, so reentering the stock after selling my position on October 5.
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 14th 47 calls for .80
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ Dec 14th 66 calls for .72.
SPX 1-dte cosed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 10th 2710 calls for .05, and the 25120/2490 put spreads for .10. Condors sold for 1.00 on Friday. Next one will be sold tomorrow for Wednesday expiration.
SFIX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day AND 5-day moves over its entire history (only 4 quarters). I included both 1 & 5 because of the significant differences in the moves.
NOTE: Stock has had wide swings in the days after earnings, and in last few days. This morning it was up 5.5% only 15 minutes into today.
Oct. 1, 2018 AC 1-day: -35.15%; 5-day: -41.07% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC 1-day: +20.21%; 5-day: +22.42%
March 12, 2018 AC 1-day: +3.77%; 5-day: -15.42%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 1-day: +39.39%; 5-day: -0.57% Biggest UP initially, but all given back in 5 days.
Avg (+ or -) 1-day : 24.63%; 5-day: 19.99%
Bias 1-day: +7.06%; 5-day: -8.66%, positive bias in 1 day; negative bias in 5 days.
With stock at 28.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday’s expiration per TOS): 21.87 to 34.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1-day: 21.10 to 34.90; 5-day: 22.44 to 33.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 1-day (39.4%): 16.97 to 39.03; 5-day (41.1%): 16.50 to 39.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
UVXY spread
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 7.00. Adding to my position I started for 4.35. This is entirely ITM, but I feel volatility will be quieting into Christmas, and a drift back below 50 in reasonable to believe in 2 weeks. Even without a true Santa Claus rally this can happen. Looking at the VIX and UVXY today, they’ve been drifting lower this afternoon, even as SPX continued lower. If I am wrong, it’s manageable as a spread.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 10th 2490/2510-2710/2730 condors for 1.00. Expire Monday. Filled on spike higher. If I were selling now I would shift the whole thing higher.
Econ calendar for week of 12/10/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=10&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
Took FIVE
#Earning Sold $FIVE Dec 7th 98 puts for 1.30. That worked nicely.
Sold 100/98 spreads for .65.
Bought to close 100 puts for .55
Sold to close 98 puts for 1.30.
Total profit 1.40.
FIVE closed
#Earnings Bought to close $FIVE 100 puts for .55. The Dec 7th 100/98 put spreads were sold for .65 on Tuesday. Two days in a row we rose to over 106 in the morning, and then collapse to 100 or lower. Didn’t think it would happen twice so I didn’t close earlier. If we get another dump like yesterday, I can sell the 98 longs for fat profit.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close 2600/2575 put spreads for .10. Will close call spreads for .05.
November Jobs Report
#Jobs Lower than expected.
+155,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 198K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, or 6 cents, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, unchanged
October revised down from 250k to 237k
September revised up from 119k to 134k
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2600/2580 put spread for .75. Legging in since market is moving higher. Trying for 2750/2770 on call side.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC 7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC 4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC 9.10%
March 10, 2016 AC 17.27% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 12.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 3.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 271.98 to 308.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.04 to 309.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.3%): 239.92 to 340.08
Open for requests on other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC 16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC 9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC 7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC 11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO 4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO 10.71%
Dec. 9, 2015 BO -13.11%
Avg (+ or -) 11.79%
Bias 3.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 119.62 to 147.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.32 to 148.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 101.84 to 164.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC 8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC 0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC 4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC 4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC 6.35%
Dec. 2, 2015 AC 9.50% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.68%
Bias 2.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 212.36 to 237.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.48 to 235.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 203.63 to 246.38
Open for requests on other symbols.
