Jeff 6:54 am on Thursday, January 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%

Avg (+ or -) 8.04%
Bias 2.10%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 350.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 321.39 to 378.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 321.85 to 378.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 283.43 to 416.57

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 12:50 pm on Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

MS and AA earnings calendars

#DoubleCalendar #Earnings Forgot about these earlier… just threw them on now.
Bought to Open $MS 18Jan/25Jan 45 double calendar for .334.
Bought to Open $AA 18Jan/25Jan 29 double calendar for .44

Jeff 11:59 am on Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (monthlys) 2545/2565-2670/2690 iron condors for .85. These stop trading at tomorrow’s close but settle on Friday morning, so I will close during market hours tomorrow.

Expiring today: Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 condors, sold yesterday for .95.

Jeff 10:55 am on Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AA earnings analysis

#Earnings $AA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 17, 2018 AC +5.85%
July 18, 2018 AC -13.34% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +1.39%
Jan. 17, 2018 AC -7.00%
Nov. 17, 2017 AC -2.74%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 19, 2017 AC +0.60%
April 24, 2017 AC +9.54% Biggest UP
Jan. 24, 2017 AC -2.58%
Oct. 10, 2016 AC -11.42%
July 11, 2016 AC +5.42%
April 11, 2016 AC -2.66%

Avg (+ or -) 5.42%
Bias -1.62%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 28.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.23 to 30.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.67 to 29.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 24.44 to 31.96

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 7:42 am on Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tags: Tide

Market Tide

#Tide I now have the Market Tide indicators on all my charts. Looks pretty solid. Also noticed that SPY 1-hour chart just printed a purple arrow, signaling a possible top for at least a few days.

Jeff 12:48 pm on Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 iron condors for .95. Legged in, put spread first for .55 after the Brexit dip, then call spread on the bounce for .40

Jeff 9:42 am on Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

UAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
July 19, 2016 BO +0.29%
April 20, 2016 BO +0.94%
Jan. 21, 2016 BO +0.46%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.03%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 81.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.15 to 85.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 77.44 to 84.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 71.40 to 91.00

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 7:30 am on Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%
Jan. 15, 2016 BO -0.62%

Avg (+ or -) 1.21%
Bias -1.00%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.40 to 122.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.56 to 120.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 112.36 to `25.64

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 6:56 am on Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX Feb condor

#SPX1dte On Jan 4th I sold the $SPX Feb 15th 2250/2270-2730/2750 iron condors for 3.00, as a roll from a 1-dte spread that was a .50 loser. The idea is to make back the premium over a longer period while continuing to sell the 1-dte spreads every week.

Today, I closed the put spread side for .50. Order is in to close the call side for .70.

Jeff 6:36 am on Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01% Biggest UP
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%
Jan. 20, 2016 BO -1.95%

Avg (+ or -) 2.06%
Bias -0.82%, slight negative bias on earnings.

NOTE: Another minor mover on earnings; 3-day maxes show no significant differences.

With stock at 178.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 170.85 to 185.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 174.33 to 181.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 169.62 to 186.38

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 12:46 pm on Monday, January 14, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte expires

#SPX1dte Expiring today: $SPX Jan 14th 2520/2540-2630/2650 condors, sold for .90 on Friday.

Jeff 7:23 am on Monday, January 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), IronButterfly ( 141 )

JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP
Jan. 14, 2016 BO +1.49%

Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias 0.21%, slight positive bias on earnings.

NOTE: JPM is a very small mover on earnings. The above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves, but the +4.23% move above was still the highest.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 96.58 to 103.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.64 to 101.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 95.77 to 104.23

Open for requests on other symbols.

#ironbutterfly

Jeff 11:34 am on Friday, January 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 14th 2520/2540-2630/2650 iron condors for .90.

Jeff 11:00 am on Friday, January 11, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 1/14/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=14&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 9:03 am on Friday, January 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed short calls for .10 and short puts for .05. Condor sold yesterday for .90.

Will sell one for Monday at the end of the day.

Jeff 9:02 am on Friday, January 11, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

C (Citigroup) earnings analysis

#Earnings $C reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 12, 2018 BO +2.13%
July 13, 2018 BO -2.20%
April 13, 2018 BO -1.55%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +2.27%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -7.63%
July 14, 2017 BO -2.58%
April 13, 2017 BO -5.07%
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -5.02%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +5.66%
July 15, 2016 BO +5.93% Biggest UP
April 15, 2016 BO +5.61%
Jan. 15, 2016 BO -13.59% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 4.94%
Bias -1.34%, slight negative bias on earnings.

NOTE: above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves and the ranges are actually LOWER, meaning that any extreme one-day moves were faded to be less severe after a few days.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into next Friday per TOS): 53.98 to 60.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.19 to 59.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.6%): 49.25 to 64.75

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 12:37 pm on Thursday, January 10, 2019

It’s brutal out there…

Macy*s says comp store sales will be more like 2% than 2.3% for this year, and investors reacted calmly by ripping 25% of its market cap out like Patrick Swayze ripped out that dude’s throat in Roadhouse.

We are very chill on Wall Street.

— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) January 10, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 12:36 pm on Thursday, January 10, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 11th 2520/2540-2635/2655 iron condors for .85

Jeff 6:15 am on Thursday, January 10, 2019

Jerome can’t stay quiet

Not originally scheduled, but added to the calendar:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to participate in discussion at the Economic Club of Washington in Washington, DC.

Today, 12:45 ET

https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-eeY

Jeff 10:16 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Exited short puts for .05, but had to pay .55 to exit call side. Condors sold for 1.20 yesterday.

Jeff 7:35 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC 3.38% Biggest UP
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC 0.74%
June 22, 2016 AC 1.50%
April 6, 2016 AC 0.32%
Jan. 7, 2016 AC 0.27%

Avg (+ or -) 8.38%
Bias -7.35%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 10.12 to 13.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 10.99 to 13.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%%): 9.48 to 14.52

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 6:43 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

TQQQ calls sold

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls

Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 42.5 calls for 1.45. A roll from this week’s calls that were stopped out.

Jeff 6:31 am on Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Fed minutes

Heads up… Fed minutes released today at 2pm ET. Potential market mover.

Jeff 11:38 am on Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 9th 2485/2505/2620/2640 condors for 1.20.

Jeff 9:52 am on Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

SQ calls sold

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls

Sold to Open $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls for 1.35. Replace the Jan 4th calls I stopped out of yesterday.

Jeff 12:36 pm on Monday, January 7, 2019
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

Calls stopped

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls First time I’ve had to do this in weeks. Both strikes breached so I exited on pull back and will wait for spikes higher to roll.

BTC $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.65. Sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BTC $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for 1.30. Sold for .85 on Friday.

Jeff 9:44 am on Monday, January 7, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Earlier, closed $SPX Jan 7th shorts, puts for .05 and calls for .15. Condors sold Friday for 1.10

Jeff 12:20 pm on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 7th 2440/2460-2590/2610 condors for 1.10.

Jeff 11:54 am on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

Calling again

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for .85
Sold $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.20.

Jeff 11:05 am on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPYcraft ( 95 )

SPX Feb condor

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 2250/2270-2730/2750 condors for 3.00. Will close at or near 50%, or 1.50.

#spycraft

Jeff 10:45 am on Friday, January 4, 2019

Econ calendar for week of 1/7/19

Fed minutes, Wednesday at 2pm ET.

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=7&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 7:22 am on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte SPX hit my upside stop (expected move breached the 2520 short calls), so I exited on the pull back.

BTC $SPX Jan 4th 2520/2540 call spreads for 1.70. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. Puts will expire, or close for .05.

I’ll be selling another 1-dte for Monday expiration. I’m looking for longer term roll options to replace today’s stop.

Jeff 6:15 am on Friday, January 4, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 142 )

December Jobs Report

#Jobs Much higher than expected.

+312,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 176K expected
Unemployment at 3.9%, up 0.2%
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, unchanged
Wages up 0.4%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.1%, up by 0.2

November revised up from 155k to 176k
October revised up from 237K to 274k

Jeff 12:33 pm on Thursday, January 3, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 4th 2345/2365-2520/2540 for 1.25.

Jeff 10:32 am on Thursday, January 3, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 )

PVTL covered calls

#CoveredCalls Sold $PVTL Jan 18th 17 calls for .50.

Jeff 7:18 am on Thursday, January 3, 2019
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 )

Calls closed (again)

If I was only selling calls and didn’t have #LongLEAPs, this would be a brilliant strategy!

BTC $TQQQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .05. Sold for .74 on Friday.
BTC $SQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .05. Sold for .79 on Friday.

Jeff 12:20 pm on Wednesday, January 2, 2019
Tags: Contango ( 10 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Trades today

#SPX1dte Expiring today: $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors, sold Monday for 1.10.

#Contango ETFs: Closed $SOXL May 75 put for 12.00. Sold for 13.60. Now out of SOXL.

Happy New Year, everyone!

Jeff 12:26 pm on Monday, December 31, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors for 1.10.

Jeff 11:32 am on Monday, December 31, 2018
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

BOIL out

#ContangoETFs Closing out the year by closing out final $BOIL positions. Was forced out of Jan 45 short calls by the spike higher… made some back with rolls, but still at a loss overall. I will reserve this symbol for large seasonal spikes in the future.

Closed BOIL Mar 50 call for .90. Sold for 4.15.
Closed BOIL June 66 call for .70. Sold for 7.20.

Jeff 10:12 am on Monday, December 31, 2018

Best and Worst

Here are the best and worst performing stocks of this tough and volatile year for the market. https://t.co/LC2Zt7pE8X pic.twitter.com/VZo9Og3p77

— CNBC (@CNBC) December 31, 2018

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 10:04 am on Monday, December 31, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Waiting for last hour to sell for Wednesday’s expiration.

Jeff 1:41 pm on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

Calls sold

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .79
Sold $SQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .74

Jeff 12:50 pm on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 2360/2380-2570/2590 for 1.40.

Jeff 12:14 pm on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed yesterday’s for .25 total. With the rolls I had to execute yesterday, the full trade ends up with a .35 loss.

Waiting until closer to the close to sell today’s, to avoid that kind of mess!

Jeff 10:32 am on Friday, December 28, 2018
Tags: Jobs ( 142 )

Econ Calendar for week of 12/31/18

#Jobs report is Friday. And Powell speaks later that morning.

Link to calendar: https://optionsbistro.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/screen-shot-2018-09-24-at-6-07-52-am.png

Jeff 1:15 pm on Thursday, December 27, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte roll

#SPX1dte What a face ripper!

Sold the condor below for 1.30 with 48 minutes before close when SPX was at 2440.
The call side hit my stop 20 minutes later (expected move breached short strike) with SPX going past 2475.
Stopped call side, BTC for 2.65.
Sold new call side: $SPX Dec 28th 2565/2585 for .75.

Then rolled put side after the bell: Closed 2340/2320 for .10.
Sold 2400/2380 for .60.

So best I can do tomorrow is small loss, near breakeven. Bonkers market… gotta wait until last 10 minutes on this trade to be safe.

Jeff 12:27 pm on Thursday, December 27, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX 2320/2340-2520/2540 condors for 1.30. Shorts are 180 apart.

Jeff 8:21 am on Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed shorts for .05 each. On Monday, sold the 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Tomorrow I’ll sell one for the Friday expiration.

Jeff 6:46 am on Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

SQ closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .07. Sold for .75 on Friday.

Jeff 9:45 am on Monday, December 24, 2018
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

On Christmas Eve?

#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve.

May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!

Jeff 9:39 am on Monday, December 24, 2018
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

TQQQ calls covered

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .10. Sold for .85 on Friday.

Jeff 9:15 am on Monday, December 24, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1 -dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 26th 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Short strikes 235 points apart.

Jeff 6:43 am on Monday, December 24, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Selling one for Wednesday expiration before the close.

Jeff 1:17 pm on Friday, December 21, 2018
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

UVXY spreads & overall approach

#VXXGame My attempts at legging out of the $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads were also a failure, but only a bit worse than allowing them to expire. Sold for 5.68 (avg price), some will expire for 10.00, some closed for 10.60, and assigned short shares on a couple others, cost basis 69.43.

Also, I took off some risk this week without rolling. First we’ve experience a market like this 2008, and I wasn’t trading then. I hold very few short options positions compared to many times in the past, and my remaining short $UVXY calls are hedged with a greater number of long calls, albeit much further OTM.

Suffice it to say the only thing working right now are the 1-day SPX condors. I’m finished trying any more directional positions until market is clearly finished with this. If we go much lower, I will continue to shed positions slowly.

BTC $UVXY Mar 15th 75 call for 16.00, sold for 6.125, avg price, in Sept/Oct
BTC $UVXY March 15th 95 call for 10.15, breakeven, sold for 10.15 in late October.

Closed $SOXL Feb 15th 75 put for 12.70. Sold for 7.00 as a roll.

Jeff 1:04 pm on Friday, December 21, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I tried to leg out and leg in to the condors today. I continue to suck at those attempts like no other. This time, I paid more than necessary to exit today’s condor, but still with a profit. I was mildly successful at legging in to Monday’s.

Closed $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for .60 total. Sold for 1.05 yesterday.

Sold $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for 1.40 total.

Jeff 10:34 am on Friday, December 21, 2018

Econ Calendar for week of 12/24/18

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 7:18 am on Friday, December 21, 2018

So touchy

This is perhaps the most sensitive market to seemingly low impact headlines that I can remember…

BREAKING: Stocks spike to session high after NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could reevaluate its view in 2019 https://t.co/VO5GKms1AL pic.twitter.com/1Zrhcbqyxs

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 21, 2018

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 7:15 am on Friday, December 21, 2018
Tags: LongLEAPs ( 81 ), SyntheticCoveredCalls ( 228 )

Covered Calls

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls These would have been better yesterday, but couldn’t catch it.

Sold $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .75
Sold $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .85

It will be hilarious if I just sold at the bottom! Oh, how we will laugh.

Jeff 12:55 pm on Thursday, December 20, 2018
Tags: SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for 1.05.

Jeff 11:36 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018

VIX touches above 30…

…and we get a 30-point SPX bounce… is that what everyone was waiting for to buy?

Jeff 11:23 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018

Let’s add gov’t shutdown to the mix!

Average S&P 500 stock is now
D
O
W
N
over 25% from its 52-week high. https://t.co/RXsMXKjJaR pic.twitter.com/Ov9xJk0h6R

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 20, 2018

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Jeff 8:51 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018

Plunge accelerating

VIX spiking

Jeff 7:44 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed entire condor, $SPX Dec 20th 2360/2380-2585/2605 for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.30.

At the end of today, I will sell a new one for tomorrow’s PM expiration.

Jeff 7:42 am on Thursday, December 20, 2018
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC 11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC 0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC 10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC 0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%

Avg (+ or -) 4.14%
Bias 0.40%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 64.42 to 73.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 66.14 to 71.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 61.33 to 76.67

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 12:55 pm on Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

UVXY spreads

#VXXgame I had sold $UVXY 50/60 Dec 21st call spreads(for 4.35 and 7.00) in belief volatility would be calmed going into Xmas. Wrong.

On one account, I was assigned short stock at 50.00. I sold the long 60 calls for 12.60 today, and covered stock f0r 71.10, meaning out of the spread for 8.50.

On the other accounts trying to close one of the spreads for 9.30 but not getting filled. I’ll see if assigned tonight and deal with closing on the swings tomorrow.

Jeff 12:39 pm on Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2360/2380-2585/2605 condors for 1.30. Stop trading at 4:15pm tomorrow, settle Friday morning. I will close the trade during trading hours tomorrow.

Shorts are 205 points apart.

Jeff 11:35 am on Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte

Before the announcement:
Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2650/2670 call spreads for 1.20. This was betting on an explosion higher, and perhaps a quick double into tomorrow. So far, not looking good.

After the announcement
Sold to open Feb 14th (monthlys) 2300/2280 put spreads for 1.95. Partial roll from January spread stopped earlier this week.

Looking to sell the 1-dte trade in the next hour.

Jeff 6:52 am on Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX 2435/2415 put spreads for .15. Looking to close call side on a pullback. If none comes I will stop out when condor is near breakeven.

Jeff 12:32 pm on Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1 -dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 19th 2415/2435-2635/2655 condors for 1.25. Shorts are 200 points apart. Will try to close before Fed announcement at 2pm ET tomorrow.

Jeff 7:14 am on Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53% Biggest DOWN
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC 2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC 1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC 2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC 6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC 11.83% Biggest UP
Dec. 16, 2015 AC 2.02%

Avg (+ or -) 3.94%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 183.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 172.43 to 195.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 176.51 to 190.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 162.01 to 205.49

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 7:10 am on Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), Fuzzy ( 415 )

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC 0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC 8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC 7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC 12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.12%

Avg (+ or -) 5.11%
Bias 0.46%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 31.72 to 37.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.97 to 36.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s 12.7%): 30.34 to 39.16

Open for requests on other symbols.

#fuzzy

Jeff 1:04 pm on Monday, December 17, 2018
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors. Sold Friday for 1.05.

Also, stopped $SPX Jan 17th 2420/2400 put spreads for 3.65, since expected move breached my short puts. These were sold as a roll from a stopped #SPX1dte spread (sold condor for 3.00 on Nov 20). With one roll down of the call side, I’m getting out of this with only a .20 profit (or basically breakeven after commissions). Will look to roll into a new condor later this week.

Jeff 12:59 pm on Monday, December 17, 2018

Double down

Bought more $SPX Dec 28th long 2700/2720 call spreads for .85 (first batch bought this morning for 1.80). With a double position it is easier to sell half at a decent profit and let the other half ride as long as I can. After today’s action the only thing I can be playing for is a rally after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. And by rally, I don’t mean much higher than 2700 before we probably resume the downtrend.

Jeff 12:36 pm on Monday, December 17, 2018
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

New UVXY high

#VXXGame We just exceeded the 10/29 high of this correction on $UVXY.
The $VIX is still 3 points below its correction high set on 10/11.

We are setting up today to hit our 7th downside warning in this correction.

Jeff 12:32 pm on Monday, December 17, 2018
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

BOIL closed

#ContangoETFs Closed the last of my $BOIL Jan 45 calls for 3.30. I’m underwater despite a few rolls, but this is closest to the money that I had. I want to be ready should we get another winter push higher.