Revised with today’s holiday and Jerome Powell speaks after market close on Thursday.
https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-dV8
Author Archives: Jeff
TQQQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Since these started the day ITM, taking profits now as this may be a sustained bounce.
BTC $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for .55. Sold last week for 1.25.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1-dte — in trouble again, last week to upside, today on downside. If we get no bounce I’m going to roll into an ATM or ITM put spread a week or two out.
UVXY call spread
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 4.35. Max risk 5.65, but also can manage to roll if we stay above this level for 2 more weeks.
Also, Sold UVXY Jan 2020 135 call for 9.50.
SQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Dec 7th 67 calls for 1.00. Sold in a roll for 3.10 last week. Stock now at 65.00 after topping out at 73.00 yesterday.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports Wednesday afternoon. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC 21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC 4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC 0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC 10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC 9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC 2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC 6.81%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 5.44%
Avg (+ or -) 6.66%
Bias 5.82%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 104.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.10 to 113.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 97.07 to 110.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 81.27 to 126.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
LULU date moved
#Earnings $LULU shifting to Thursday after close:
http://investor.lululemon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lululemon-athletica-inc-announces-date-change-its-third-quarter
RH earnings
My apologies but they announced last night. Looks like they moved up a day at some point… TOS and others reflect it accurately but optionslam.com failed to move it.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte My spread for today, Dec 3rd 2620/2640-2850/2870 condors, sold Friday for .95, will expire.
Sold $SPX Dec 5th 2715/2735-2830/2850 condors for .85. Expire tomorrow, the 4th, due to market closure on Wednesday.
Went from 210 points wide, down to 85.
Stock Market Closed this Wednesday
I am trying to determine when Wednesday SPX options will now settle. I have heard that it will be tomorrow, Tuesday, but have not confirmed.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-george-hw-bushs-funeral-means-for-stock-market-bond-traders-commodities-2018-12-03/print
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO 4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO 2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO 6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO 0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO 4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO 10.66% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 BO 4.23%
Avg (+ or -) 6.04%
Bias -0.35%, no significant bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the most down was -15.6%, so less than 1-day, and the most up was 14.1%, more than the 1-day.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.49 to 118.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 104.30 to 117.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 91.44 to 130.56
Open for requests on other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO 0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO 0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO 2.47%
March 1, 2016 BO 2.06%
Dec. 8, 2015 BO 5.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.30%
Bias -2.43%, negative bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the extremes were LOWER than the 1-day moves, meaning extreme 1-day moves tend to fade over the following few days.
With stock at 815.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 771.48 to 858.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 779.98 to 850.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 718.50 to 911.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
SOXL call
#ContangoETF Sold to Open $SOXL Feb 150 call for 4.50. Against Feb 75 short put.
SPLK earnings
#Earnings Expiring: $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly, for a 3.00 credit at Exercise. Bought for 1.60 yesterday. I was trying to close for 3.05 or more, but wasn’t possible after stock moved above 110 and didn’t come back. My broker charges little to none for exercising ITM spreads.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign My condor for today, Nov 30th 2690/2710/2810/2830, is expiring (sold for .90). I wasn’t planning on doing one for Monday due to the chance for a huge gap on the China talks. However, IV is so high, that I was able to sell a very wide condor. My short strikes have been around 100 points apart in this last week. For Monday’s condor, they are 210 apart.
Sold $SPX Dec 3rd 2620/2640-2850/2870 condors for .95.
Short strikes are 115 points away on downside, 95 points on upside. We have exceeded those moves only once this year: to the downside on Feb 5th.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/3/18
Jobs Report is Friday morning
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=3&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2690/2710/2810/2830 condors for .90. Expires tomorrow.
SPLK speculative trade
#Earnings Bought to Open $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.60.
This is a bullish trade. Breakeven at 103.60. No upside risk.
Max loss 1.60.
Max gain (if pin at 107) 3.40.
If it explodes above 109 gain will be 1.40.
Trump Xi meeting
From what I can find, it looks like their dinner is Saturday, which means markets may not be affected much tomorrow by the G-20 (unless other big news is generated). But it could mean a gap up or down on Monday. I’m guessing more likely up, as Trump will likely report that the meeting went well. But if his advisors are more bearish, as they usually have been on trade agreements, it could go anywhere.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m considering a bullish trade on SPLK… it has positive bias on earnings. Possible broken-wing BF with no upside risk.
$SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 AC 14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC 9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC 17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC 8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC 0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC 2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 7.73%
Nov. 19, 2015 AC -3.53%
Avg (+ or -) 7.51%
Bias 2.68%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 89.71 to 110.29
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.49 to 107. 51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 82.11 to 117.89
Open for requests on other symbols.
GME earnings analysis
#Earnings $GME reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 0.06%
May 31, 2018 AC 3.93%
March 28, 2018 AC -10.81%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC 3.82%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -10.92%
May 25, 2017 AC -5.92%
March 23, 2017 AC -13.60% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 22, 2016 AC 8.08% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.63%
May 26, 2016 AC -3.93%
March 24, 2016 AC -0.59%
Nov. 23, 2015 BO -4.20%
Avg (+ or -) 6.37%
Bias -3.73%, significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 14.90 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 13.49 to 16.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 13.80 to 15.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.6%): 12.74 to 16.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC 13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC 14.29% Biggest UP
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC 9.39%
March 3, 2016 AC -8.93%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC -1.64%
Avg (+ or -) 9.93%
Bias -3.74%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.30 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 29.86 to 38.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.04 to 37.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 26.76 to 42.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
SQ calls rolled
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Rolled $SQ Nov 30th 66 calls to Dec 7th 67 calls for .10 credit
Earnings today
#Earnings A list of Bistro favorites… AMBA, GME, PANW, SPLK, VMW, WDAY. Not sure if I’ll be trading any, but let me know if you’d like analysis on any or all.
ANF partially closed
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $ANF Nov 30th 17 calls for 4.20. Sold half of my position. Holding the other half to see how the morning shakes out. Bought the straddle yesterday for 2.58.
ANF trade
#Earnings Bought to open $ANF Nov 30th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.58.
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO 2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO 5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO 0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO 0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO 8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO 12.77% Biggest UP
March 1, 2016 BO 2.21%
Nov. 24, 2015 BO 6.62%
Avg (+ or -) 7.76%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.30 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 77.28 to 89.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.64 to 88.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 69.26 to 94.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for 1.25.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m including this one because of my interest in a long straddle. The cost of an ATM straddle is about 2.60, which would be about a 15% move in the stock, which is its AVERAGE move over recent quarters. I’ll consider whether to sell in the last hour.
$ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO 11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO 23.90%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO 17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO 8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO 13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO 3.64%
Nov. 20, 2015 BO 25.03% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 15.00%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 17.25 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.60 to 19.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.66 to 19.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (25.0%): 12.93 to 21.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Still working on this new approach… thought I’d share my big error on today’s spread.
I sold the $SPX Nov 28th 2590/2610-2710/2730 for 1.15 yesterday at 1:38p ET, when SPX was at 2672.
After selling, the SPX creeped higher into the close. Even so, my call spread side did NOT increase much. With the threat of a gap up opening, and a slow rise into the close, I could have closed the calls for about .70, and let puts expire today, for an overall profit on the trade, same day. But it didn’t rise enough to hit my stop, so I opted to stay in.
That turned out to be only a minor error: Consider taking profits same day if volatility drops enough in the last hour to exit with decent profit, and erase overnight risk. But, in this case, the gap up this morning wasn’t bad, and I could have closed at the open for a small loss.
Further more, my call side DID hit its stop this morning, when the expected move touched my 2710 short calls. This means I should have exited, and COULD have exited for a profit on the fade back down to 2685 area. But I didn’t. And as it bounced, I was not focused…. I should have realized the volatility risk with Powell’s comments, but I didn’t and was focused on record keeping and other non-trade issues.
Now I’m 10 points ITM. Faced with possibility of a chunky loss if there’s no fade. Don’t know how I’ll roll yet.
1. Take partial profits if they present themselves early.
2. Follow rules even if you believe that waiting for better exits will work.
3. Focus on market events you KNOW are coming. Don’t get distracted or complacent.
CRM closed
#Earnings Closed $CRM 138/143 call spreads for .51. Closed short 118 puts for .04. Leaving long 113 puts as lottery ticket.
Condors sold yesterday for 1.09.
Fed’s Powell, and other market movers
Busy day; market movers with red dot.
Closed Z door
#Earnings #Assignment Closed remaining $Z stock, selling at 34.90. Cost basis 32.55. Waited for a couple weeks for stock to return to profit zone, and exited all this week.
CRM trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM Nov 30th 113/118/138/143 condors for 1.09. Leans slightly bullish.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Nov 28th 2590/2610-2710/2730 condors for 1.15. Expires tomorrow.
Sold more Z
#Earnings #Assignment Sold more $Z stock at 33.50. Assigned with cost basis of 32.55.
WB earnings analysis
#Earnings $WB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 BO -4.04%
May 9, 2018 BO -14.19%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO 9.59%
Nov. 7, 2017 BO 0.07%
Aug. 9, 2017 BO 1.12%
May 16, 2017 BO 24.96% Biggest UP
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -16.01% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC 7.34%
Aug. 8, 2016 AC 12.48%
May 11, 2016 AC -1.12%
March 2, 2016 AC 9.48%
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 1.98%
Avg (+ or -) 8.53%
Bias 2.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 59.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 52.46 to 65.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 53.97 to 64.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (25.0%): 44.27 to 73.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC 1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC 2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC 0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC 3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC 3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC 4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC 11.03% Biggest UP
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 4.25%
Avg (+ or -) 3.24%
Bias 1.86%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 124.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 115.24 to 133.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.46 to 128.54
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 110.77 to 138.23
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte expired
#SPXcampaign Expired: $SPX Nov 26th 2560/2580-2690/2710 condors, sold Friday for 1.15.
A few more UVXY
#VXXGame
Closed my other $UVXY March 112 call for 3.25. Sold for 7.00.
Closed UVXY Jan 18th 95 call for 1.87. Sold for 6.90.
Bought (2) Dec 7th 100 calls for .18. Released 4.5K in buying power.
Sold Z stock
#Earnings #Assignment Sold to close $Z stock for 32.80. Was assigned with a cost basis of 32.55. Sold a 4th of my position now. Will look for higher prices near the close or tomorrow to sell more. No desire to be long or sell calls.
UVXY prep
#VXXGame – My current view on the market into year-end: one more shove lower, hopefully with a panic dive toward 2500. Then, higher into year end and January.
I making a couple of $UVXY moves to free up some buying power so I can sell higher-premium calls on that dive.
Bought to Open UVXY Dec 21st 140 calls for .12. I have more long calls than short ones… they are all far OTM but will help manage the chaos should UVXY decide to shoot up to 100 on the panic.
Bought to Close UVXY Jan 18th 112 call for 1.30. Sold for 5.25.
Bought to Close UVXY March 15th 112 call for 3.70. Sold for 7.00, avg price.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 7th 2720/2745 call spreads for 5.80.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/26/18
Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=26&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
VXX call closed
#VXXgame BTC $VXX Dec 21st 50 call for .77. Sold for 3.50 on July 11th.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 26th 2560/2580-2690/2710 for 1.15. Expires Monday.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX 2600/2620/2705/2725 condors for .20. Sold for .95 on Wednesday.
Music to watch the ticks by
A classic for a dull trading day…
See you all Friday!
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ Nov 30th 66 calls for 1.15
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 2600/2620 – 2705/2725 condors for .95. Expire Friday.
SPX 1-dte closed
$SPXcampaign Sold the 2550/2470-2740/2760 condors yesterday for .85.
Closed for .10 today; closed the short calls for .05 in the pre-market, then the put spread just closed for .05.
Selling another later today for Friday expiry
ADSK earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Decent premium available outside the recent maximum moves.
Aug. 23, 2018 AC 15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC 14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC 3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC 14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC 8.11%
May 19, 2016 AC -2.31%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 3.58%
Nov. 19, 2015 AC -2.94%
Avg (+ or -) 7.66%
Bias 2.43%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 122.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 109.95 to 135.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.25 to 132.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 103.20 to 142.08
Open for requests on other symbols.
BBY earnings were this morning
That’s an error on the side chart… $BBY announced this morning, NOT later today.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 2550/2570-2740/2460 condors for .85. Expires tomorrow.
TGT earnings
#Earnings #PreEarnings Well, this was my only attempt since early October at long calls leading up to earnings. Aaaaand, face plant.
TQQQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Nov 23rd 50 calls for .15. Sold Thursday for 1.15.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Stopped out on my 2685/2665 put spread for 3.75. Will roll into a longer term spread.
UVXY trades
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY June 90/140 call spreads for 5.70.
Also, earlier, I bought 2 Dec 7th 110 calls for .26, which relieved over $5K in buying power.
SQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $SQ Nov 23rd 74 calls for .12. Sold Thursday for 1.16.
Since I’m long LEAPs I kind of wish these calls didn’t devalue so quickly.
Sold KOLD
#ContangoETFs Sold $KOLD Dec 21st 12 put for 2.30.
TSLA condor
#IronCondor Sold to open $TSLA Nov 23rd 340/350/380/390 condors for 2.94. Expire Friday. This is a bullish placement… I actually meant to make it dead center but screwed up the put strikes. It does seem headed higher in honey-badger fashion.
Options Expiration 11/16/18
#OptionsExpiration A couple of losers this week:
$NVDA 185/180 put spreads, sold for 1.10 yesterday. Decided not to take stock due to heavy margin cost. I’ll get it back by making bullish plays, but wait for a better sign of QQQ and NVDA recovering.
$SPX long 284 calls. Bought for 1.71 average, back in the early days of this correction, where I was believing it would be a quicker “V” shaped October.
KOLD put
#ContangoETFs Sold $KOLD Dec 13 put for 2.30. A safer bet since KOLD is closer to zero than the BOIL calls are to infinity.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Nov 19th 2665/2685-2780/2800 condors for 1.15. Volatility the lowest of the week, so this is a much narrower condor than the previous one. I’m expecting it to be a low volume week, but those can sometimes result in fairly quick rallies.
BOIL call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $BOIL March 105 call for 6.80. Building back recent losses slowly.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/19/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=19&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte put closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 16th 2630/2650 put spreads for .10. Condor sold for 1.15 yesterday. I’ll let the 2790/2810 call side expire. Selling one for Monday later today.
NVDA earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $NVDA Nov 16th 185/180 put spreads for 1.11. Short strike is -7.7% OTM, and NVDA biggest downside move was -5.3% (in last 12 quarters)
SPX 1-dte action
#SPXcampaign Everything just started happening on this spike down. Multiple orders filled:
BTC $SPX Nov 15th (monthlys) 2765/2785 call spreads for .30. Puts closed earlier for .05. Condor sold yesterday for 1.05. Removed overnight gap risk.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 2630/2650/2790/2810 condors for 1.15. The volatility bump got me filled. Mid-price said only .80 a few minutes ago.
Also: Bought to Open $VIX Jan15th 16 puts for .75. My Nov puts didn’t work, my Dec puts might, and now I have Jan!
#VXXgame
Boiling over, then under
On pace to be the first time natural gas has risen 15%+ on one day and declined 15%+ the day after. $UNG
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 15, 2018
Covered Calls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Selling calls against #LongLEAPs
Sold $TQQQ Nov 23rd 50 calls for 1.15
Sold $SQ Nov 23rd 74 calls for 1.16
SPX moves
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX 1-dte Nov 15th (monthlys) 2580/2560 put spread for .05. Order in to close 2765/2785 call spread for the same. Condor sold yesterday for 1.05. Cannot allow to expire because these monthlys settle tomorrow morning, and a gap could kill you.
I will be selling another one for tomorrow afternoon expiration.
Also, stopped $SPX Nov 23rd 2650/2630 put spreads for 5.25. Condor sold as a roll last week for 2.80. Will look into a new roll. I stopped this out after this morning’s dip… it looks now like that may have been a bottom, at least for short term. At least, I waited to close after the bounce was well underway.
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC 3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC 2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC 0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC 0.03%
Aug. 18, 2016 AC 7.08%
May 19, 2016 AC 13.81% Biggest UP
Feb. 18, 2016 AC 7.04%
Nov. 12, 2015 AC 4.29%
Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 1.68%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.20 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 31.62 to 36.78
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.55 to 35.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 29.49 to 38.95
Open for requests on other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC 5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC 17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC 5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC 15.20%
Feb. 17, 2016 AC 8.60%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 13.85%
Avg (+ or -) 9.80%
Bias 7.34%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 200.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.14 to 220.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 180.41 to 216.59
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 140.40 to 259.60
NOTE: the max move down (-5.3%) is dwarfed by the max move up (+29.8%).
Open for requests on other symbols.
