ANF earnings analysis

#Earnings I’m including this one because of my interest in a long straddle. The cost of an ATM straddle is about 2.60, which would be about a 15% move in the stock, which is its AVERAGE move over recent quarters. I’ll consider whether to sell in the last hour.

$ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO 11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO 23.90%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO 17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO 8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO 13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO 3.64%
Nov. 20, 2015 BO 25.03% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 15.00%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 17.25 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.60 to 19.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.66 to 19.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (25.0%): 12.93 to 21.57

Open for requests on other symbols.