VixCentral.com is down

They’re aware and working on it but just wanted to let you all know in case you were checking and wondering what happened.

UPRO

#ShortPuts #IRA – Late fill…

Bought to Close UPRO DEC 21 2018 30.0 Put @.10 (sold for 1.05)

OLED

#ShortCalls – Just for safety taking these extras off…

Bought to Close OLED NOV 30 2018 94.0 Calls @ .37 (sold for .85)
Bought to Close OLED NOV 30 2018 95.0 Calls @ .17 (sold for 1.15)

AMBA Earnings

#Earnings #IronFlies – Let’s try it again…risk .27 to make 1.72. Two wide on a 3.90 expected move. Low risk, low probability, high reward.

Sold AMBA NOV 30 2018 32/34/36 Iron Flies @ 1.73

SPX 1-dte

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2690/2710/2810/2830 condors for .90. Expires tomorrow.

SPLK speculative trade

#Earnings Bought to Open $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.60.
This is a bullish trade. Breakeven at 103.60. No upside risk.
Max loss 1.60.
Max gain (if pin at 107) 3.40.
If it explodes above 109 gain will be 1.40.

TNA

#ShortPuts #IRA – With enough risk in Dec and Jan I’m looking out to Feb now. 21.5% annualized or a pretty good price to buy some stock if it gets there.

Sold TNA FEB 15 2019 50.0 Put @ 2.20

TNA

#ShortPuts #IRA – Just for risk reduction. Now hoping my 65 strike covered calls expire tomorrow. Threading the needle again. 🙂 🙂

Bought to Close TNA NOV 30 2018 60.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 2.25)

#shortputs SLB Bottom feeding, sold…

#shortputs SLB
Bottom feeding, sold Dec. 7, 44 put for .44, stock at 46.14 ex-div next week.

Closing some SOXL

For greater than 50% of the profit.
Bought to close $SOXL Dec 21 85 put @ 2.60. Sold for 5.60 on 10/10.

#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK Sold Dec….

#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK

Sold Dec. 21, 80/120 strangle for 2.30, outside past max moves

Trump Xi meeting

From what I can find, it looks like their dinner is Saturday, which means markets may not be affected much tomorrow by the G-20 (unless other big news is generated). But it could mean a gap up or down on Monday. I’m guessing more likely up, as Trump will likely report that the meeting went well. But if his advisors are more bearish, as they usually have been on trade agreements, it could go anywhere.

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings I’m considering a bullish trade on SPLK… it has positive bias on earnings. Possible broken-wing BF with no upside risk.

$SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 23, 2018 AC 14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC 9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC 17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC 8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC 0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC 2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 7.73%
Nov. 19, 2015 AC -3.53%

Avg (+ or -) 7.51%
Bias 2.68%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 89.71 to 110.29
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.49 to 107. 51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 82.11 to 117.89

Open for requests on other symbols.

Rolls and adjustments

#pietrades
TQQQ 63 cc rolled out to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. CB now 58.4
TQQQ lot 2 65 cc rolled out and down to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. Cb now 58.75

Just sit on these until rebound. If not will convert to #fuzzy later.

LNG 65 CC rolled down 8 DTE to 62 for 0.96 credit. CB 60.03 so will let assign next week. My plan with this account is to then start a live #lizardpies.

LNG lot 2 expires in 3 weeks at the 61 CC for cb 59.27. Same as above but will change ticker.

My #pietrades for the next few weeks will be LNG, GILD, EXPE, EOG, XBI, SMH. A few others I am watching but these will be the core trades for a while. Want to see chips and a few other names stabilize before adding.

#fuzzy
LNG 50/65 rolled out 43 DTE for 1.03 credit. Cb now 15.31 and 110 weeks left.

I have not taken a LEAP all the way to expiration in several years but I may do that with some of these smaller accounts to see what kind of annualized returns I can achieve. Hopefully 50-100% or more.

Have a ton of contracts expiring in 15 and 21 DTE so sitting on hands until then. At that point will add a few more live #lizardpies as I roll the #fuzzy and free up some cash.

4 things I noticed with the latest correction. If you own the stock can sit on it long term but the losses are much larger on paper than with spreads and takes a lot longer to get back to even.

The spreads help navigate the corrections and are easier to adjust, but everyone here probably already knew that.

Using longer options with the #pietrades 21-43 DTE prevents a lot of assignments and easier to roll. Also helps handle the volatility easier.

Once VIX settles down (under 15) will always leave on an SPX or /ES hedge lottery ticket to cover about 10% correction for the account. Probably finance it by selling a LEAP on something I want to own long term.

Finally a slight bump in my equity curve after being down/flat for the last 8 weeks 🙂

BOIL

#BearCallSpreads – Surprised I got filled on this one. Better than yesterday even with the stock down a little.

Sold BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 3.25

#jeff SPX call spread Are…

#jeff

SPX call spread
Are you still holding $SPX Dec 7th 2720/2745 call spreads?

#earnings #shortstraddle GME Sold Dec….

#earnings #shortstraddle GME
Sold Dec. 21 15 straddle for 2.20, thanks Jeff

UNG

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Looking to sell the next batch but have to be careful. This thing can implode 30 percent in a week. Slowly covering the cost of the long puts.

Bought to Close UNG DEC 7 2018 29.0 Puts @ .04 (sold for .45)

DLTR Earnings

#Earnings #IronFlies – Not looking like it’s gonna come back so taking a tiny loss instead of small loss…LOL Now I can try again in something else. On the bright side the pin action is carrying over to DG although I think DG is a much better store. 🙂

Bought to Close DLTR NOV 30 2018 80.5/83.5/86.5 Iron Flies @ 2.70 (sold for 2.59)

OLED

#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Replacing this week’s with a half size for now…

Sold OLED DEC 7 2018 98.0 Calls @ .72

GME earnings analysis

#Earnings $GME reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 6, 2018 AC 0.06%
May 31, 2018 AC 3.93%
March 28, 2018 AC -10.81%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC 3.82%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -10.92%
May 25, 2017 AC -5.92%
March 23, 2017 AC -13.60% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 22, 2016 AC 8.08% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.63%
May 26, 2016 AC -3.93%
March 24, 2016 AC -0.59%
Nov. 23, 2015 BO -4.20%

Avg (+ or -) 6.37%
Bias -3.73%, significant negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 14.90 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 13.49 to 16.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 13.80 to 15.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.6%): 12.74 to 16.74

Open for requests on other symbols.

AMBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC 13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC 14.29% Biggest UP
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC 9.39%
March 3, 2016 AC -8.93%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC -1.64%

Avg (+ or -) 9.93%
Bias -3.74%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.30 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 29.86 to 38.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.04 to 37.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 26.76 to 42.16

Open for requests on other symbols.

DG

#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Re-loading for earnings. Nice bounce is allowing a sale at 1.5x the expected move and well above the all time high. I may adjust this down prior to the announcement. Selling against bull put spreads.

Sold DG DEC 7 2018 122.0 Calls @ .60

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling a call now against where I will hopefully be able to sell a new batch of puts tomorrow. Ratio is now 16 long puts against 8 short puts against 3 short calls (calls spread out to only one per week for safety). Trying to generate as much cash as possible over the next 111 weeks.

Sold UVXY DEC 7 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.30

SQ calls rolled

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Rolled $SQ Nov 30th 66 calls to Dec 7th 67 calls for .10 credit

Earnings today

#Earnings A list of Bistro favorites… AMBA, GME, PANW, SPLK, VMW, WDAY. Not sure if I’ll be trading any, but let me know if you’d like analysis on any or all.

TQQQ

I rolled the 49 calls in December 21 out to February 54 calls for a credit of .15 cents. I was having some margin problems since I was long the 60 calls in 2021 and short the 49 calls in December.I am giving up 8 weeks of rolls but had 38 weeks covered so far.

#assignment again X Assigned on…

#assignment again X

Assigned on a 35 put, originally sold in May and rolled, cost basis of 31.37. Sold Dec. 7, 24.50 call for .28

#earnings #shortstrangle DLTR bought strangle…

#earnings #shortstrangle DLTR
bought strangle for .38, sold yesterday for .97.

ANF partially closed

#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $ANF Nov 30th 17 calls for 4.20. Sold half of my position. Holding the other half to see how the morning shakes out. Bought the straddle yesterday for 2.58.