Thanks for the great Halloween…

Thanks for the great Halloween backgrounds Jeff. Peanuts/Great Pumpkin brings back memories!

#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN…

#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN
TEVA Sold Nov. 16, 20 straddle for 2.55
DENN bought Nov. 16, 17.50 put for .55

Had to hit the road, no fill on W, trading from I80 tomorrow maybe.

CI and W DubCals

Added a couple last-minute double calendars right before the close.
Bot CI Nov2/Nov9 212.5 double calendar @ 2.4. GTC order to sell @ 3.2
Bit W Nov2/Nov9 111 double calendar @ 2.3. GTC order to sell 3.5

#doublecalendar

PVTL covered calls

#Earnings Got assigned this stock with cost basis of 20.35.

Sold $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .70

FB double calendar

Sold FB Nov2/9 144 double calendar @ 1.68. Bot ydy @ 1.51. Could have made more but thought the price would fall a lot more after the open.

#doublecalendar

SSO TNA TQQQ pie trades

I’m switching to a less active trading style starting next week due to family obligations. Here’s my second attempt at pie trades which I think are probably more profitable than all the daily scrambling that I do.

STO SSO Nov9 110p @ 2.60
STO TNA Nov9 61.5p @ 2.70
STO TQQQ Nov9 52p @ 2.60
I don’t mind at all if I get assigned any or all of these. My goal is to start building a portfolio of these ETFs at cheap prices.

#pietrades

TEVA earnings

#Earnings #ironFlies – Can’t help myself. Threw it out there and let it sit and finally got filled. Risk 33 to make 117. 1.50 wide on a 1.83 expected move.

Sold TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.17

TEVA earnings analysis

#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:

$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%

Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstraddle

Indices all up

RUT lagging at 1%
Dow 1.75%
SPX 2%
NDX leading at over 3%

VIX down 11%, approaching 20.

SPX call spread

Sold $SPX Nov 2 (this Friday) 2790/2815 bear call spread for 1.10 earlier this morning. Looks like you might be able to do a bit better now.

Covered Calls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $PYPL Nov 9th 85.5 calls for 1.15
Sold $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for 1.30

CI earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.

$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%

Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84

Open for requests on other symbols.

W (Wayfair) earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.

$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%

Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstock DENN Denny’s, c’mon, up…

#shortstock DENN

Denny’s, c’mon, up 25% after earnings, my fault for not knowing earnings, but it’s Denny’s…I sometimes make money from tech stocks and I have no understanding of what those companies do, but lose on Denny’s…still in it

#shortcallspreads SPY Not as exciting…

#shortcallspreads SPY

Not as exciting as an earnings trade, or some complicated triple calendar ratio wingy dingy (all of which I like and partake), just a Dec. 21, 281/284 call spread for 1.00.

STMP earnings

#Earnings – Taking a shot with another #JadeLizard. No upside risk. Selling just outside the expected move on the downside and just inside the expected move on the upside. But….this thing could go anywhere. It’s had some crazy moves.

Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10

Gushin’

#ContangoETFs Another ETF working as expected, drifting ever lower. I foolishly should a strangle weeks ago to roll out of a pressed call. So now it has been breached.

BTC $GUSH Dec 21 puts for 3.45. Sold in a strangle for 3.87 on Aug 15th.
Sold $GUSH Jan 2019 25 call for 3.50. Will sell another.

Also: BTC $GUSH March 55 call for .40. Sold for 4.20 on Sept 25th

FB and ANTM closed

#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.

TQQQ

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I had over written these also so taking the loss here and reducing upside risk. I’ll take the loss out of my Nov 9th sale. Still ahead on premium and 60 strike out to 2021 looks pretty good.

Bought to Close TQQQ NOV 16 2018 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.75 (sold for .77)

RTN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I had triple written these spreads so taking whipsaw risk off since it’s bouncing a little.

Bought to Close RTN NOV 2 2018 195.0/205.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .03 (sold for .60)
Bought to Close RTN NOV 9 2018 190.0/200.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .25 (sold for .50)

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Since I over wrote these slightly booking some now for safety in case this thing implodes.

Bought to Close UVXY NOV 2 2018 56.0 Puts @ .43 (sold for 2.12)

SIVB

Sold to open February 300 calls At 3.60

BIDU earnings

#Earnings – Good enough…I’ll take it.

Bought to Close BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 1.12 (sold for 3.55)

STMP earnings analysis

#Earnings I’ve confirmed from their website that earnings will be after the close today, even though some sources have not confirmed themselves.

Below are details on $STMP earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC 3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC 11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 35.88%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.23%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 21.04%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 38.10% Biggest UP

Avg + or – 13.43%
Bias 7.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 205.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.12 to 231.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 177.91 to 233.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (38.1%): 127.20 to 283.80

Open for requests on other symbols.

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN October…

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN
October 25, sold Nov. 16 IC for 1.75, bought today for 1.26.

SPY bull put spread

Sold $SPY Nov 16 268/258 BuPS @ 2.02

SPX call spreads

I’m out of the two short call spreads with losses. Holding off on replacing until we get indication of next direction, higher or back to lows.

#earnings #closing BIDU EA Bought…

#earnings #closing BIDU EA
Bought BIDU strangle for 1.22, sold yesterday for 3.07, thanks Jeff
Bought EA strangle for .66, sold yesterday for 1.78
If only it always worked this well!

Closing FB

Bought to close $FB Nov 16 120/172.50 strangles @ .52. Sold for 1.67 yesterday.
#Earnings

BIDU closed

#Earnings
BTC $BIDU 150/155/205/210 condors for .10. Sold yesterday for .70. (Filled right at the bell)
BTC $BIDU Nov 2nd 155/205 strangles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80. (filled six minutes later)

Looking at the futures there…

Looking at the futures there may be a short squeeze rally developing. Won’t really know until 2 pm when the margin requirements kick in but if it stays up until then I would expect buying into the close instead of selling.

SIVB

Last night I was assigned early on the November 14  shares at 90.00. I will be writing covered calls.

My mistake. I was assigned the $300 shares and I sold the $300 calls in February at 3.60
I did not have enough caffeine

FB Earnings Trade

Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade
Short strikes at around 2x the expected move. With IV as high as it is now, there’s premium way out near 2 standard deviations.
Sold $FB Nov 16 120/172.50 strangles @ 1.67

SPX calls stopped

#SPXcampaign Man, my exits have been sucking lately. Was too greedy when the SPX was flat today, so missed a fill then and caught in the updraft. I really have to work on this. It got up to at least 3.00 in profit, before it slipped away and became a 3.00 loss.

BTC $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 10.85.

Selling a higher spread now or in the morning. I’m not turning bullish unless VIX drops more or we get several up days in a row.

#shortstrangles IWM Sold Dec. 21,…

#shortstrangles IWM

Sold Dec. 21, 135/160 strangle for 3.02.

FB dbl cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.

#earnings #shortstrangles EA TastyTrade idea,…

#earnings #shortstrangles EA BIDU
TastyTrade idea, sold Nov. 16, 75/105 for 1.78.
BIDU followed Jeff sold Nov. 16, 150/210 for 3.07, took all day and a couple adjustments to fill

#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO October…

#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO

October 24, sold Nov. 16, 75/100 strangle for 1.19, closed today for .69, finally able to close something instead of roll.

XBI

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Last one today. Hauling a load of Vegas winners back to Miami today…LOL

Sold XBI NOV 16 2018 85.0/90.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .48

Stay green!

BIDU earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.

Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.

FB DubCal

Bot FB Nov2/Nov9 144 double calendar @ 1.51. EM 12.
Profit tent allowing for 20-point move. Vol collapse will favor profit if FB stays within EM.

#Earnings

BIDU earnings

#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.

Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55

Another short

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 8.00. This is on a short leash and probably close out at end of today. 1 DTE and not far OTM.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Based on the TOS analyze tab I’ve got room for additional call sales with minimal loss up to about the 90 level on the overall position.

Sold UVXY NOV 30 2018 80.0 Call @ 6.32

ANTM earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.

$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%

Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24

Open for requests on other symbols.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Giving this it’s own post since I’m so excited about the potential of this trade. Of course that worries me… 🙂 🙂 In two accounts now…

Added:

Bought to Open UVXY JAN 15 2021 50.0 Puts @ 27.00
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 52.0 Puts @ 1.40

This week’s put sales look safe so double selling for next week:

Sold UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.20

EWZ RTN TLT TQQQ

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Summary of a busy morning. Leaving before the close so getting done early.

EWZ: Trying to get my .36 loss back from the closed position yesterday. Stand alone trade out of spite…LOL

Sold EWZ NOV 16 2018 37.0/35.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .26

RTN: Bunch of call spreads nearly worthless so adding another. Just going for slightly more than required breakeven.

Sold RTN NOV 16 2018 185.0/195.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .32

TLT: Adding to the #PerpetualRollingStrangles position. Stop set on last batch.

Sold TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .34

TQQQ:

Sold TQQQ NOV 16 2018 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .77 credit

TRADE:

SFIX STO 11/2/18 22.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if assigned.

WYNN earnings

#Earnings confirmed Nov 7th after the close…

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%

Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92

Open for requests on other symbols.

FEYE earnings analysis

by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN

Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90

Open for requests on other symbols.

DG

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another long running position that was sort of a trade repair. When I rolled the LEAPS to 2021 I also cut the size in half figuring I’d have plenty of time to make up the difference. The stock has held up great and with a few weekly sales I’m able to make an adjustment and bring a ton of cash back into the account. Closing the LEAPS at breakeven and rolling the slightly ITM calls into strangles.

Sold to Close DG JAN 15 2021 110.0 Calls

Rolled DG NOV 2 2018 108.0 Calls to NOV 16 2018 107.0/113.0 Strangles @ .15 credit.

This was the plan all along with the reduction in size of the roll to 2021. If I could get the LEAPS to even then the size would be small enough I could strangle the weekly calls if needed.

Once the strangles go away (hopefully) the overall thing will be a small net winner. A lot of hassle but was a sizable loser at the beginning.

🙂 🙂

TNA

#ShortPuts #IRA – Adding one more…trying to get some stock for the longer term.

Sold TNA NOV 16 2018 55.0 Put @ 2.95

BIDU earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%

Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67

Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.

Open for requests on other symbols.

Futures sinking

Tech leading the way, AMZN below 1500. It’s lost a fourth of its value from the highs.

AMAT AMBA EWW EWZ LABU PYPL UVXY

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Was out most of the day but did get in just in time to get a few sales off. Morning would’ve been better but the volatility is helping premium across the board so still sold a little. Biggest change is closing a couple of the long term positions that were near breakeven (AMBA and EWZ) and moving some of that cash to UVXY and possibly adding to TNA and TQQQ.

AMAT: Waiting for earnings date confirmation before selling anymore.

Bought to Close AMAT NOV 2 2018 36.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .38)

AMBA: Closed for small loss. Happy with it since stock moved against me from day one. Another 2020 position closed and looking to add to some 2021’s that are beaten down.

Bought to Close AMBA NOV 2 2018 38.0 Calls
Bought to Close AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls
Sold to Close AMBA JAN 17 2020 50.0 Calls

Net loss of .21 on a 10 lot…

EWW: Overlapping sales since this week’s 48’s look safe.

Sold EWW NOV 16 2018 45.0 Calls @ .41

EWZ: Closing it on the bounce to free up cash to add to UVXY. Small loss but a successful long term repair trade.

Bought to Close EWZ NOV 9 2018 35.5 Calls (ratio’d)
Sold to Close EWZ JAN 15 2021 40.0 Calls

Net loss of .36 on a 10 lot…

LABU: Selling spreads very cautiously down here. Short next week’s 70/80 also.

Sold LABU NOV 16 2018 65.0/75.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .50

PYPL:

Bought to Close PYPL NOV 2 2018 89.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .60)

Sold PYPL NOV 9 2018 86.0 Calls @ .54

UVXY: Added to the long LEAP puts and sold puts against them. Still short a few calls as well.

Bought to Open UVXY JAN 15 2021 50.0 Puts @ 26.75

Sold UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.25

High volume plunge, higher volume bounce at 3:45

UVXY pulling back 4 points in the last 10 minutes. FANG stocks well off their lows.

#shortstock XLF #shortcallspreads QQQ #longputspread…

#shortstock XLF #shortcallspreads QQQ #longputspread SPY

XLF Sold 100 shares short at 25.37
QQQ Sold Nov. 16, 170/175 for 1.03
SPY bought Nov. 14 250/260 for 2.00

TQQQ calls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ Nov 2 58 calls for .12. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Looks like I’ll be adding to my #LongLEAPs this week.

TRADE: BAD TRADE

AMZN BTC 1480/1490 BuPS ;>(

TRADES:

AMD STO 11/2/18 19.0 CALLS @.20 Delta .23
TWLO STO 11/2/18 62.0 PUTS @.60 Delta .16
TWLO STO 11/2/18 71.0 CALLS @1.00 Delta .31
AMZN BuPS 11/2/18 1490/1480 PUTS @2.00

PYPL and SOXL

#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for .11. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 19th.

#ContagoETFs BTC $SOXL Dec 85 put for 9.00.
#Rolling Sold $SOXL May 65 put for 9.25

Failing again

#SPXcampaign I was looking for a higher move before we topped, so I didn’t get these trades off in time. I managed to close one of my SPX spreads for 3.20, just above break-even, which gave me the heads up to start looking for a full exit. But that turned out to be the top so far. Maybe we’ll bounce at flat, and then I’ll be sad about these trades. But overall, I’m looking for a test of Feb lows before we get out of this mess.

Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2725/2750 call spreads for 5.55.
Sold to close $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for .90. Bought for 3.10 on Friday.

Still holding a way OTM long put spread expiring the 9th. Will hold it for a deep plunge.

Red Hat turning blue

Not much left here after the IBM takeover announcement.
Bought to close $RHT Dec 21 100 puts @ .10. Sold for 1.10 on 6/22.

CTSH calendar?

#Earnings @kathycon, check out $CTSH for a double calendar. Looks to me like decent IV drop, typically low moves on earnings, and cheap purchase price.

CMI earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMI reports in the morning before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 31, 2018 BO 4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64%
May 2, 2017 BO 6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO 1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 7.62% Biggest UP
Oct. 27, 2015 BO -8.69% Biggest DOWN

Avg + or – 4.19%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 133.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 125.81 to 141.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.91 to 139.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 121.90 to 145.10

Open for requests on other symbols.

Closing GUSH

I am now completely out of this one.
Bought to close:
$GUSH Dec 21 46 calls @ .20. Sold for 4.00, 5.00 and 6.00 on 4/24, 5/8 and 5/9.

WTW….trimming the fat (basis)

WTW Anatomy of a Trade

#CoveredCalls

This is why I love option trading. Nothing is cut and dry and loss isn’t a loss until it’s realized. This was the path I took from an 80 basis to 58 in 3 months. All the calls were carefully sold at levels around the current basis to protect from losses in the event of a huge whipsaw (or buyout). 🙂 🙂

Aug 6: Jade Lizard blown out to the put side on the implosion
Aug 7: Immediately sold additional weekly calls at the open
Aug 8: Sold more weekly calls against the Lizard puts
Aug 9: Sold atm calls in anticipation of weekend put assignment
Aug 11: Assigned stock over the weekend
Aug 17: Sold fairly safe calls as an oversale against the stock
Aug 30: Rolled covered calls down and out staying atm
Sep 5: Sold calls slightly itm
Sep 21: Rolled calls again staying itm
Oct 5: Rolled calls again staying itm
Oct 10: Another atm call sale
Oct 26: Rolled calls down and ditm for max earnings protection

Still rolling along. Hoping for one more drop on earnings to around 58. That would complete a huge topping pattern. Bounce there or drop to 40 after that. We shall see. Thanks Sue for the nice comments down below. Coming from a seasoned trader it’s very encouraging!

TSLA strangle

#ShortStrangles Now that this one is volatile again, premium is jacked.

Sold to Open $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 6.50.

amzn

STO November 2, 1475/1500 bull put spread @ 2.25 adding to my position.

T2108 low

Was 7.53 this morning around 11:00 am. Looks like that will be it for the day.

#longputspread STC SPX 2675/2680 Oct…

#longputspread

STC SPX 2675/2680 Oct 26 for $3.60, bot for $1.80 before 1 PM today. I see I could have collected more but couldn’t watch as needed. I’m happy with this.

Next I may be able to buy back my NUGT shorted with a 13.50 call. Eventually it looks like a winner after looking very bad as prices reached $17 earlier this week. It was exercised 2 weeks ago.

UVXY STO UVXY Dec21’18 122…

UVXY
STO UVXY Dec21’18 122 CALL 5.00

WTW

#CoveredCalls – Sure didn’t think I’d still be in this since last earnings. Started out as a blown out strangle and the stock has lost 30 percent since last quarter. Through extremely aggressive call selling (double selling and selling in the money) I’ve managed to stay in the game. Started at around an 80 basis and currently sitting at 66.16.

Next week it’s earnings time again and I’m still being cautious. Selling in the money at a level that will give nice downside protection while still allowing the stock to get called away with a small profit.

Rolled WTW OCT 26 2018 65.0 Calls to NOV 2 2018 58.0 Calls @ 8.85 credit

New basis is now 57.31 covered at 58.0. Estimated move on earnings of about 10 dollars. I don’t quite have all that covered to the downside but got most of it. If the stock gets that low I may back off on the aggressive call selling and keep longer term for a turnaround.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Selling calls and puts against a long put LEAP position. Selling less calls and scattering them out for extra safety. Rolling this week’s and holding short 70 strike the next two weeks. Will continue pounding the weekly put sales as long as I can.

Rolled UVXY OCT 26 2018 60.0 Call to NOV 23 2018 75.0 Call @ .57 credit (2.57 total credit now)