FB Earnings Trade

Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade
Short strikes at around 2x the expected move. With IV as high as it is now, there’s premium way out near 2 standard deviations.
Sold $FB Nov 16 120/172.50 strangles @ 1.67

SPX calls stopped

#SPXcampaign Man, my exits have been sucking lately. Was too greedy when the SPX was flat today, so missed a fill then and caught in the updraft. I really have to work on this. It got up to at least 3.00 in profit, before it slipped away and became a 3.00 loss.

BTC $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 10.85.

Selling a higher spread now or in the morning. I’m not turning bullish unless VIX drops more or we get several up days in a row.

#shortstrangles IWM Sold Dec. 21,…

#shortstrangles IWM

Sold Dec. 21, 135/160 strangle for 3.02.

FB dbl cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.

#earnings #shortstrangles EA TastyTrade idea,…

#earnings #shortstrangles EA BIDU
TastyTrade idea, sold Nov. 16, 75/105 for 1.78.
BIDU followed Jeff sold Nov. 16, 150/210 for 3.07, took all day and a couple adjustments to fill

#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO October…

#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO

October 24, sold Nov. 16, 75/100 strangle for 1.19, closed today for .69, finally able to close something instead of roll.

XBI

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Last one today. Hauling a load of Vegas winners back to Miami today…LOL

Sold XBI NOV 16 2018 85.0/90.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .48

Stay green!

BIDU earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.

Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.

FB DubCal

Bot FB Nov2/Nov9 144 double calendar @ 1.51. EM 12.
Profit tent allowing for 20-point move. Vol collapse will favor profit if FB stays within EM.

#Earnings

BIDU earnings

#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.

Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55

Another short

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 8.00. This is on a short leash and probably close out at end of today. 1 DTE and not far OTM.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Based on the TOS analyze tab I’ve got room for additional call sales with minimal loss up to about the 90 level on the overall position.

Sold UVXY NOV 30 2018 80.0 Call @ 6.32

ANTM earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.

$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%

Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24

Open for requests on other symbols.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Giving this it’s own post since I’m so excited about the potential of this trade. Of course that worries me… 🙂 🙂 In two accounts now…

Added:

Bought to Open UVXY JAN 15 2021 50.0 Puts @ 27.00
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 52.0 Puts @ 1.40

This week’s put sales look safe so double selling for next week:

Sold UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.20

EWZ RTN TLT TQQQ

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Summary of a busy morning. Leaving before the close so getting done early.

EWZ: Trying to get my .36 loss back from the closed position yesterday. Stand alone trade out of spite…LOL

Sold EWZ NOV 16 2018 37.0/35.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .26

RTN: Bunch of call spreads nearly worthless so adding another. Just going for slightly more than required breakeven.

Sold RTN NOV 16 2018 185.0/195.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .32

TLT: Adding to the #PerpetualRollingStrangles position. Stop set on last batch.

Sold TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .34

TQQQ:

Sold TQQQ NOV 16 2018 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .77 credit

TRADE:

SFIX STO 11/2/18 22.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if assigned.

WYNN earnings

#Earnings confirmed Nov 7th after the close…

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%

Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92

Open for requests on other symbols.

FEYE earnings analysis

by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN

Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90

Open for requests on other symbols.

DG

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another long running position that was sort of a trade repair. When I rolled the LEAPS to 2021 I also cut the size in half figuring I’d have plenty of time to make up the difference. The stock has held up great and with a few weekly sales I’m able to make an adjustment and bring a ton of cash back into the account. Closing the LEAPS at breakeven and rolling the slightly ITM calls into strangles.

Sold to Close DG JAN 15 2021 110.0 Calls

Rolled DG NOV 2 2018 108.0 Calls to NOV 16 2018 107.0/113.0 Strangles @ .15 credit.

This was the plan all along with the reduction in size of the roll to 2021. If I could get the LEAPS to even then the size would be small enough I could strangle the weekly calls if needed.

Once the strangles go away (hopefully) the overall thing will be a small net winner. A lot of hassle but was a sizable loser at the beginning.

🙂 🙂

TNA

#ShortPuts #IRA – Adding one more…trying to get some stock for the longer term.

Sold TNA NOV 16 2018 55.0 Put @ 2.95

BIDU earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%

Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67

Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.

Open for requests on other symbols.

Futures sinking

Tech leading the way, AMZN below 1500. It’s lost a fourth of its value from the highs.