/nq

Fresh sell signal on 15 minute into close. Shorted at 7020 out at 6960 so profitable for the day.

Seems like the big moves occur early and late in the the day as people move stuff around to avoid margin.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign I was trying to get a fill on this before the bell, but didn’t. Then I moved to sell it quickly as I saw both GOOGL and AMZN down sharply. Not looking good for the market tomorrow unless the conference calls get these higher.

Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2760/2785 call spreads for 6.25.

Double Calendars

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Followed Mama on three of these ideas…

Bought $CL Oct26/Nov2 64 dbl calendars for .44
Bought $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for .54
Bought $GILD Oct26/Nov2 70 dbl calendars for .95

TQQQ

In my IRA, I rolled my 58.5 calls from November 9, to November 16, 59 calls for a credit of .18 cents. These are against my 66.67 calls and I have 61 more weeks to go. I have covered 50% of my cost so far but am under water on the long dated position.

#earnings #ironcondor AMZN Following the…

#earnings #ironcondor AMZN
Following the AMZN condors, sold Nov. 16, 1450/1460/2010/2220 for 1.75, thanks all

#shortcalls #closing UVXY Oct. 23,…

#shortcalls #closing UVXY

Oct. 23, sold Jan. 18, 2019 112 call for 6.05, bought today for 4.99, like the deer running my neighborhood these days, I’m a little skittish.

LEAP covered calls

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Nov 2nd 58 calls for 1.20.
Sold $SQ Nov 2nd 77 calls for 1.20.

GOOGL condor

#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold to open $GOOGL Oct 26th 980/1000/1175/1195 condors for 3.00
Biggest UP move: 5.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% , Average move: 3.5%.
Stock is up to 1110, so my strikes are +5.9 and -9.9% OTM.

Some divergence

$SPX and indices up and moving toward 2%. However, $VIX opened lower but since then has been in consolidation. Tonight’s AMZN and GOOGL results may portend tomorrow’s open but I’m looking for a near-term peak to get short again. If we’re still going up on Monday I’ll start to reassess.

EWZ

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Filled on this just in time this morning leaving a 4×10 ratio’d position. Whiz says EWZ is going up big…LOL!

Bought to Close EWZ OCT 26 2018 40.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .63)

#rolling and recovery Scalped a…

#rolling and recovery

Scalped a few more trades on /NQ and gave back my gains. But learned that 15 min and 30 minute chart is probably ideal for scalping. 1 and 5 minute too much chop. I will be adding some more directional trades and using my tools.

#fuzzy
XBI 80/97 rolled to 80/90 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
LNG 50/66.5 rolled to 22 DTE 65 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
XBI lot 1,2,3 closed for losses totaling 620. With only until Jan 2019 and hardly any cash in this account did not think it was worth trying to recover and losing more.

#pietrades
LNG Lot 1 66 cc rolled down to 65 and 43 DTE for 0.83 credit. Cb 60.99
LNG lot 2 66 cc rolled the same for 0.9 credit. cb 61.00

#supercharger all I had left for in this tiny IRA.
QQQ 22 DTE 150/155 for 4.53. Will have to manage if we drop more.

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings
Look how docile GOOGL is… its range has been small, and I’ve usually skipped it due to lack of premium. But with IV up, premium is huge at the ranges below. If I go back to the 13th Quarter there was a 16% up move, so beware that despite the recent quiet, GOOGL can move big.

$GOOGL reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 23, 2018 AC 3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC 3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC 3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC 1.31%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 5.60%

Avg + or – 3.51%
Bias +0.22%, very slight upside bias on earnings.

With stock at 1095.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1035.20 to 1154.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1056.56 to 1133.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 1033.68 to 1156.32

Open for requests on other symbols.

AMZN condor

#Earnings #IronCondor
Sold to open $AMZN Oct 26th 1575/1600/1950/1975 condors for 3.75.
IV is jacked up on most, so it allows for wide strangles and condors. Biggest UP move: 13.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My trade is +11.4% on the upside and -8.3% on the downside. It is a bullish positioning because of the historical ranges, but even if we drop I don’t think we can get to 1600.

Whiz

100 percent sure it’s a dead cat today…heck if I know.

Another day, another DubCal

Today, I looked for cheap trades that met the criteria. There are way too many. I may add to these near the close.
Bot EXPE Oct26/Nov2 117 double cal @ 1.26
Bot FSLR Oct26/Nov2 42.5 double cal @ .76 x2
Bot GILD Oct26/Nov2 69 double cal @ 1.01
Bot INTC Oct26/Nov2 44 double cal @ .58 x2
Bot MAT Oct 26/Nov2 13.5c double cal @ .19 x4
Bot SNAP Oct26/Nov2 7c double cal @ .15 x5
Bot WDC Oct26/Nov2 54.5 double cal @ .99
Bot CL Oct26/Nov2 64 double cal @ .44 x2
Bot COG Oct 26/Nov2 21 double cal @ .39 x3

Have orders in to buy CHTR and CMG but the bid-ask is wide so nothing yet.

#earnings

#earnings #shortstrangles #closing MSFT Yesterday…

#earnings #shortstrangles #closing MSFT
Yesterday sold Nov. 16, 95/115 strangle for 1.81, bought today for 1.21

AMZN trade

#Earnings Sold $AMZN Oct 26th 1710p/1740p/1740c/1770c #IronButterfly for 28.10.

Exited my mistake long for 28.10 and added the correct short IB.

This is 1.90 of risk for a max gain of 28.10. It’s impossible to make the full 28.10, but if price is within 28.10 from 1740 tomorrow, you’ll win. This is better than I get for this trade usually, I guess do to elevated volatility on the market. You can’t beat the R/R.

I’m going to try another later in the day, perhaps centered higher in the belief that the stock will go up tonight.

DUST up

#ContangoETFs Sold $DUST Jan 2019 45 call for 2.00

#shortstock #closing IMAX Oct. 19,…

#shortstock #closing IMAX

Oct. 19, sold short 100 shares at 22.48, bought to cover today for 20.81

BIIB adding

At a lower strike.
Sold $BIIB Jan 18 250 put @ 5.30.

DubCal update

Another profitable day playing earnings. I am getting nervous about these trades. If the market continues up, some of these could easily blow out to the upside for full loss. Gotta keep max risk in mind.:-)
STC TWTR @ 1.45 x2. Bot @ 1.29 (gain)
STC TSCO @ 1.65 x3. Bot @ 1.04 (gain)
STC MSFT @ 3.39. Bot @ 2.15 (gain)
STC SHOP @ 8.56. Bot @ 7.00 (gain)
STC GRUB @ 1.70. Bot @ 3.40 (loss)

#earnings

CELG-TNA GLD-TQQQ UAA-SOXL bringing dead money alive

#CoveredCalls #IRA – Fuzzy, what the heck are you talking about? Good question!

In an IRA I’ve been carrying positions in CELG, GLD, and UAA that seems like it’s been forever. They’re all underwater with very little call premium available to sell. With this pullback I’m selling the dogs and putting an equal amount of cash into some tickers that do have nice premium and that have been beat down pretty hard.

I won’t bore you with the details but I’m hoping these are long term positions that I can sell against for many months. Nothing fancy with weeklies…just doing the monthlies as more of a set it and forget it. I’ll roll the losses of the dead money stocks into the cost basis of the new positions and go from there. I feel I’ll make a lot more progress with these than sitting and waiting on the dogs to come back.

Here’s the covered call sales of the new positions:

Sold TNA NOV 16 2018 65.0 Calls @ 2.00
Sold TQQQ NOV 16 2018 58.0 Calls @ 1.60
Sold SOXL NOV 16 2018 100.0 Calls @ 5.10

Coupla longs

#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 26th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.20.
Bought to Open $SPY Nov 21st 283 calls for .66

Bullish action looks decent today, but a collapse wouldn’t surprise me. I’ll probably close the SPX spread later today, but may hold overnight.

Channeling @fibwizard With the volatility…

Channeling @fibwizard

With the volatility trying a few futures scalps. Full disclosure, I have done this before, just my job does not allow me to do it on work days. Off today, daughter home sick so figured I can make some money back. Entered at the green arrow but set stop to tight and triggered out 3 bars later while I was making breakfast for a $205 loss. But re-entered close to the lows as the signal is still valid. Will hold until I get an exit signal on the 15 minute chart.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 26, 2018 AC 0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC 3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC 2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC 0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC 9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 6.22%

Avg + or – 4.69%
Bias +1.56%, slight upside bias on earnings.

With stock at 1720.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1608.25 to 1831.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1639.38 to 1800.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1492.79 to 1947.21

Open for requests on other symbols.

MSFT

closed Dbl Cal 3.66 cost 2.15 yesterday
covered some of the earnings play loss
TWTR
closed Dbl Cal 1.50 cast 1.25 yesterday
Thx MamaCash

UVXY

#LongPuts #IRA – Playing it in two different accounts. One more conservative since it’s an IRA that doesn’t allow naked call selling. Might sprinkle a few call spreads in but mostly just selling the puts. The other account allows naked call selling so I’ll be selling the puts more aggressively against those.

Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 51.0 Puts @ 2.31

Sold UVXY NOV 2 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.85

AMD Nov

Sold $AMD Nov 16 17 puts @ .72

Bear Market In Mid-2019?

#Market Pretty in-depth analysis, published Monday, but an interesting read and lots of historical data comparisons to geek out on.

Will The U.S. Stock Market Enter A Bear Market In Mid-2019?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4213219-will-u-s-stock-market-enter-bear-market-midminus-2019