/NQ scalp…

#Futures – Got excited and had to share. Took 19 points out of the NQ futures in my first live money try using the Theo Trade strategy. Just played the tiny bounce off 7100…

#spycraft If I can generate…

#spycraft

If I can generate enough cash with some rolls this week, I might start nibbling on SPY IC or at least one sided credit spreads. Would be a shame not to at least collect a few $ with the premiums being higher than they have been in a long time.

BIIB

#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Just going with one in case I have to manage it for awhile. Based on Jeff’s data (BTW…which I love what he’s doing with those posts…thank you!!) selling near the max move.

Sold BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 5.20

#lophir #closing WMT Closed Oct….

#lophir #closing WMT
Closed Oct. 26 WMT lophir from Sept. 21, made about $60

LMT pre-ER

Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.

#preearnings

BIIB strangle

#Earnings Sold to Open $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for 3.35. Filled on 1, have another 1 pending. Strikes are just outside expected move when I posted the analysis earlier. However, IV has dropped intraday and now expected move is 296 to 343, which is the same as the MAX moves over last 12 quarters.

I’ll likely sell a third later in the day, but 3 is my max at this high of a stock price.

XBI

#LongCalls #LEAPS – With biotech in the dumpster any 2020 positions I don’t mind keeping are in a perfect position to roll to 2021 for minimal cost.

Rolled XBI JAN 17 2020 97.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 97.0 Calls @ 3.70 debit

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Setting up for next week. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts. Less calls than puts for safety.

Sold UVXY NOV 2 2018 70.0 Call @ 2.35

AMBA

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Nice start to the week…

Bought to Close AMBA OCT 26 2018 39.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)

Sold AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls @ .62

LMT double calendar

Bot LMT Oct26/Nov2 325 put/call @ 1.95. Will hold thru earnings as a potential salvage trade for the pre-ER positions not working out.

#earnings

KMB puts

Big move down after earnings.
Sold $KMB Jan 18 95 puts @ 1.35. Strike is at what would be a 5 year low (last traded at 95 in Oct 2013). Stock at 105.61, delta of puts 18.

TQQQ

I roll my November 2, 58 calls to November 9, 58.5 calls for a credit of .30 cents. I need .18 cents per week so I am getting an extra .12 cents and an increase in the strike price of 1/2 point.

LITE pre-earnings

Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.

#preearnings

LABU

STO November 2, 72 calls @ .55 cents. These are against my 2020, 115 calls but I still have 64 weeks to earn the premium to pay for this position.

Added to SPY

#LongCalls Bought $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 1.25, adding to my position.

Closing NFLX call spread

Bought to close $NFLX Nov 16 400/410 bear call spread for .21. Sold for 2.00 on 10/17.

SVXY

Covered calls. STO November 2, 54 calls @.30 cents.

BABA pre-ER sold

Sold BABA pre-ER positions for average profit of 31%. Based on possibility of China one-day bounce.

#preearnings

BIIB Earnings Analysis

#Earnings $BIIB reports before the bell tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2018 BO 4.10%
April 24, 2018 BO 1.09%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO 2.08%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -3.90%
July 25, 2017 BO -0.61%
April 25, 2017 BO 3.62%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO 2.06%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -1.87%
July 21, 2016 BO 7.63%
April 21, 2016 BO 5.15%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO 5.15%
Oct. 21, 2015 BO 3.96%

Avg + or – 3.44%
Bias +2.37%, upside bias on earnings.

With stock at 319.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 288.77 to 349.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 308.04 to 329.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 294.66 to 343.34

It is rare that the implied volatility is predicting a move that is larger than the stock’s biggest moves over 12 quarters. There is decent premium beyond the IV extremes, but bid/ask spreads are wide. Stock is currently at the 200 ema.

Up, up, and away?

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FromSMM

Gartman says we could go down 15 to20% from here. Buy,buy,buy.