Thanks for the great Halloween…

Thanks for the great Halloween backgrounds Jeff. Peanuts/Great Pumpkin brings back memories!

#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN…

#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN
TEVA Sold Nov. 16, 20 straddle for 2.55
DENN bought Nov. 16, 17.50 put for .55

Had to hit the road, no fill on W, trading from I80 tomorrow maybe.

CI and W DubCals

Added a couple last-minute double calendars right before the close.
Bot CI Nov2/Nov9 212.5 double calendar @ 2.4. GTC order to sell @ 3.2
Bit W Nov2/Nov9 111 double calendar @ 2.3. GTC order to sell 3.5

#doublecalendar

PVTL covered calls

#Earnings Got assigned this stock with cost basis of 20.35.

Sold $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .70

FB double calendar

Sold FB Nov2/9 144 double calendar @ 1.68. Bot ydy @ 1.51. Could have made more but thought the price would fall a lot more after the open.

#doublecalendar

SSO TNA TQQQ pie trades

I’m switching to a less active trading style starting next week due to family obligations. Here’s my second attempt at pie trades which I think are probably more profitable than all the daily scrambling that I do.

STO SSO Nov9 110p @ 2.60
STO TNA Nov9 61.5p @ 2.70
STO TQQQ Nov9 52p @ 2.60
I don’t mind at all if I get assigned any or all of these. My goal is to start building a portfolio of these ETFs at cheap prices.

#pietrades

TEVA earnings

#Earnings #ironFlies – Can’t help myself. Threw it out there and let it sit and finally got filled. Risk 33 to make 117. 1.50 wide on a 1.83 expected move.

Sold TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.17

TEVA earnings analysis

#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:

$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%

Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstraddle

Indices all up

RUT lagging at 1%
Dow 1.75%
SPX 2%
NDX leading at over 3%

VIX down 11%, approaching 20.

SPX call spread

Sold $SPX Nov 2 (this Friday) 2790/2815 bear call spread for 1.10 earlier this morning. Looks like you might be able to do a bit better now.

Covered Calls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $PYPL Nov 9th 85.5 calls for 1.15
Sold $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for 1.30

CI earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.

$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%

Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84

Open for requests on other symbols.

W (Wayfair) earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.

$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%

Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstock DENN Denny’s, c’mon, up…

#shortstock DENN

Denny’s, c’mon, up 25% after earnings, my fault for not knowing earnings, but it’s Denny’s…I sometimes make money from tech stocks and I have no understanding of what those companies do, but lose on Denny’s…still in it

#shortcallspreads SPY Not as exciting…

#shortcallspreads SPY

Not as exciting as an earnings trade, or some complicated triple calendar ratio wingy dingy (all of which I like and partake), just a Dec. 21, 281/284 call spread for 1.00.

STMP earnings

#Earnings – Taking a shot with another #JadeLizard. No upside risk. Selling just outside the expected move on the downside and just inside the expected move on the upside. But….this thing could go anywhere. It’s had some crazy moves.

Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10

Gushin’

#ContangoETFs Another ETF working as expected, drifting ever lower. I foolishly should a strangle weeks ago to roll out of a pressed call. So now it has been breached.

BTC $GUSH Dec 21 puts for 3.45. Sold in a strangle for 3.87 on Aug 15th.
Sold $GUSH Jan 2019 25 call for 3.50. Will sell another.

Also: BTC $GUSH March 55 call for .40. Sold for 4.20 on Sept 25th

FB and ANTM closed

#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.

TQQQ

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I had over written these also so taking the loss here and reducing upside risk. I’ll take the loss out of my Nov 9th sale. Still ahead on premium and 60 strike out to 2021 looks pretty good.

Bought to Close TQQQ NOV 16 2018 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.75 (sold for .77)

RTN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I had triple written these spreads so taking whipsaw risk off since it’s bouncing a little.

Bought to Close RTN NOV 2 2018 195.0/205.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .03 (sold for .60)
Bought to Close RTN NOV 9 2018 190.0/200.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .25 (sold for .50)

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Since I over wrote these slightly booking some now for safety in case this thing implodes.

Bought to Close UVXY NOV 2 2018 56.0 Puts @ .43 (sold for 2.12)

SIVB

Sold to open February 300 calls At 3.60

BIDU earnings

#Earnings – Good enough…I’ll take it.

Bought to Close BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 1.12 (sold for 3.55)

STMP earnings analysis

#Earnings I’ve confirmed from their website that earnings will be after the close today, even though some sources have not confirmed themselves.

Below are details on $STMP earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC 3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC 11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 35.88%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.23%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 21.04%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 38.10% Biggest UP

Avg + or – 13.43%
Bias 7.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 205.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.12 to 231.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 177.91 to 233.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (38.1%): 127.20 to 283.80

Open for requests on other symbols.

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN October…

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN
October 25, sold Nov. 16 IC for 1.75, bought today for 1.26.

SPY bull put spread

Sold $SPY Nov 16 268/258 BuPS @ 2.02

SPX call spreads

I’m out of the two short call spreads with losses. Holding off on replacing until we get indication of next direction, higher or back to lows.

#earnings #closing BIDU EA Bought…

#earnings #closing BIDU EA
Bought BIDU strangle for 1.22, sold yesterday for 3.07, thanks Jeff
Bought EA strangle for .66, sold yesterday for 1.78
If only it always worked this well!

Closing FB

Bought to close $FB Nov 16 120/172.50 strangles @ .52. Sold for 1.67 yesterday.
#Earnings

BIDU closed

#Earnings
BTC $BIDU 150/155/205/210 condors for .10. Sold yesterday for .70. (Filled right at the bell)
BTC $BIDU Nov 2nd 155/205 strangles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80. (filled six minutes later)

Looking at the futures there…

Looking at the futures there may be a short squeeze rally developing. Won’t really know until 2 pm when the margin requirements kick in but if it stays up until then I would expect buying into the close instead of selling.

SIVB

Last night I was assigned early on the November 14  shares at 90.00. I will be writing covered calls.

My mistake. I was assigned the $300 shares and I sold the $300 calls in February at 3.60
I did not have enough caffeine