TEVA earnings analysis

#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:

$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%

Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstraddle

Indices all up

RUT lagging at 1%
Dow 1.75%
SPX 2%
NDX leading at over 3%

VIX down 11%, approaching 20.

SPX call spread

Sold $SPX Nov 2 (this Friday) 2790/2815 bear call spread for 1.10 earlier this morning. Looks like you might be able to do a bit better now.

Covered Calls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $PYPL Nov 9th 85.5 calls for 1.15
Sold $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for 1.30

CI earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.

$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%

Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84

Open for requests on other symbols.

W (Wayfair) earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.

$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%

Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstock DENN Denny’s, c’mon, up…

#shortstock DENN

Denny’s, c’mon, up 25% after earnings, my fault for not knowing earnings, but it’s Denny’s…I sometimes make money from tech stocks and I have no understanding of what those companies do, but lose on Denny’s…still in it