SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign An aggressive bullish trade… purely speculative, that rally will continue or kick in higher gear after the election.

Sold $SPX Nov 30th 2700/2675 put spreads for 7.00.

CVS

Dbl Cal 74 $0.58

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Giving it some incentive to stay up as long as possible. These premiums are awesome…

Sold UVXY DEC 7 2018 70.0 Call @ 4.10

UNG

#LongPuts #LEAPS – I’ll take a shot with a half size starter. Longer term bearish mainly due to contango and global warming 🙂 . Going out to 2020 since option prices aren’t that much more to get an extra nine months. I’ll sell aggressively in the beginning and then hopefully be able to get out of the way later on. Planning on selling about every 30 days so still only need 23 cents in each sale.

Bought to Open UNG JAN 17 2020 28.0 Puts @ 3.55

Sold UNG NOV 30 2018 27.5 Puts @ .71

SVXY

I forgot to post. I STO the 50 calls @ .98 cents to replace the 54 calls that expired on Friday.

STX

I bought to close the January 40 puts @ 1.25 which is where I sold them. I am trying to close all my positions at my cost if I can. I feel that with the FED raising rates, the market is vulnerable and the damage done to the market means to me that we are no longer in a bull market. I will keep my position in the TQQQ and write short dated  covered calls against my 2021 60 calls.

Closing ANET

Taking 50+% profits wherever available right now.
Bought to close $ANET Jan 18 185 puts @ 1.45. Sold for 3.00 on 10/8.

Another BOIL

#ContangoETFs Sold $BOIL March 50 call for 4.15

Q: TQQQ naked puts

For those of you who sell naked puts on TQQQ and TNA, do you typically get assigned early if you’re ITM?

Adding VIX long puts

#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Dec 18th $VIX 16 puts for .80.

I tried this for Oct 30th with a full loss. Holding a batch for Nov 16th, underwater, needs a huge post-election rally.
These December contracts have a better shot.

SPX mid-term stats from Trader’s Almanac

The case is pretty compelling for a rally here. However, this is a strange year so anything could happen.
SPX mid-term stats

Midterm bulls

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

A TRADE:

SFIX BTO STOCK @27.35

ADDED:

PBYI BTO STOCK 23.50

A TRADE:

BTO PBYI STOCK @23.03
This was an add to stock I BTO Friday @20.00. Bottom fished, stock was cut in half Friday.

SPX 1-dte, removing risk

#SPXcampaign Guarding against a sharp drop. I don’t think it will happen, but removing the risk makes the day calmer.

BTC $SPX Nov 5th 2645 puts for .15. I’ll let the other three legs expire.
The 2625/2645/2765/2785 condors sold for 1.20 on Friday.

BOIL lancing higher

#ContangoETFs $BOIL gapped up to a 10-month high.

Sold BOIL Dec 21st 45 call for 3.40, filled on a long-standing GTC order, adding to my position.

BKNG earnings analysis (formerly PCLN)

#Earnings $BKNG reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 8, 2018 AC -5.01%
May 9, 2018 AC -4.74%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 6.77%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -13.51% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -6.93%
May 9, 2017 AC -4.51%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC 5.64%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC 6.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC 3.98%
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%

Avg + or – 7.17%
Bias -1.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.

***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +15.6%.

With stock at 1880.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1750.90 to 2009.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1745.28 to 2014.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 1626.01 to 2133.99

Open for requests on other symbols.

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO 6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO 2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO 6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO 1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO 4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 4, 2015 BO -2.42%

Avg + or – 3.50%
Bias +0.60%, no significant bias on earnings.

***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +9.5%.

With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 329.66 to 378.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 366.38 to 341.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 329.26 to 378.74

Open for requests on other symbols.