REGN

#ShortCalls – Replacing this week’s…

Sold REGN NOV 30 2018 390.0 Call @ 2.50

TQQQ

#ShortPuts #IRA – First March position. 20.4% annualized…

Sold 1 TQQQ MAR 15 2019 35.0 Put @ 2.35

SPX 1-dte

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2630/2650/2810/2830 condors for 1.30. Expires tomorrow.

Excellent premium available at a .05-.06 delta on the short strikes. Won’t be this easy after volatility drops.

History Lesson from Risk/Hedge

From RiskHedge

“So let’s steer clear of opinion and emotion. Instead, I want to focus solely on the facts that are relevant to you as an investor. As you’ll see, you don’t need to waste even one second worrying about which party will win on Tuesday. I was surprised by what we found.
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.”

#shortputspread AMZN TastyTrade idea sold…

#shortputspread AMZN

TastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 1600/1605 put spread for 2.03.

TWLO Earnings

#Earnings #IronFlies – Just for fun…need about half the expected move. Low probability but low risk.

Sold 1 TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly @ 4.26

Adding to TQQQ

#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 calls for 8.15. Adding to my position. Avg cost (not including #SyntheticCoveredCalls) now 10.12. Hard to believe I paid 17.60 for the first one.

Also, BTC $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for .35. Sold for 1.30 last Wednesday.

Now that I have a full position the call selling will continue to bring down cost basis. I won’t necessarily be holding this very long… I may close it if we reach new highs at the end of this year. I’m not so optimistic about the bull market lasting through 2019.

Closing Nov SFIX

Bought to close $SFIX Nov 16 24 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.05 on 10/2.

TRADES:

AMD BTO STOCK @21.42
AMD STO 11/9/18 21.5 CALLS @.70
TWLO BTC 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @2.42 STO Earlier today @3.00 Didn’t realize earning’s were today. THANK YOU @Jeff.

TWLO earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $TWLO Nov 9th 60/85 strangles for 1.96. I am -16.7% and +18.1% OTM.

AMD Just had a spurt…

AMD Just had a spurt over 21.

TWLO earnings analysis

#Earnings $TWLO reports tonight. I missed this one on my side chart, so including analysis here. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).

Aug. 6, 2018 AC 18.69%
May 8, 2018 AC 18.17%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 16.18%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC -6.82%
Aug. 7, 2017 AC 9.99%
May 2, 2017 AC -26.31%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 1.55%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.15%

Avg + or – 12.61%
Bias 3.54%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 72.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 61.53 to 82.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.92 to 81.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.3%): 53.06 to 90.94

Open for requests on other symbols.

Z earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Sold to Open $Z Nov 9th 34/47 strangles for 1.45.

$Z reports Wednesday morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC 2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC 9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC 12.05% Biggest UP
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -0.89%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC -6.27%

Avg + or – 6.38%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.60 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 34.57 to 46.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.01 to 43.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 34.60 to 46.60

Expected move is same as MAX moves. Trade carefully..

Open for requests on other symbols.

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Taking a little pre-election risk off since I had triple sold these.

Bought to Close TLT NOV 16 2018 117.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .40)
Bought to Close TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .09 (sold for .34)

WTW

#CoveredCalls #LongCalls #LEAPS – Not getting much of a bounce so converting the stock into a LEAPS position out to 2021. Rolling the stock loss into the basis of the LEAPS. Frees up a lot of cash and takes risk off.

Sold WTW Stock @ 48.46
Bought to Close WTW NOV 9 2018 51.0 Calls @ .55 (sold for 1.15)

Exited the position with the stock at a basis of 57.61 and added a couple extra LEAPS (300 stock vs 5 LEAPS now)

Bought to Open WTW JAN 15 2021 50.0 Calls @ 15.00
Sold WTW DEC 7 2018 55.0 Calls @ 1.00

Factoring in the stock loss the new LEAPS basis will be 20.50. I’ll sell the calls about every 30 days to give it some recovery room. Still only need about 75 cents every 30 days. Goal is to get out at even unless it really gets on a run.

#earnings AXDX Jeff-do you have…

#earnings AXDX

Jeff-do you have earnings data on AXDX? Thanks

A TRADE:

$TWLO STO 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @3.00

#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST October…

#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST

October 8, sold a Nov. 16, 57.50 straddle for 5.14, closed today for 4.55.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Had been selling these aggressively above the 50 strike LEAPS. Rolling out and down now to get back more in alignment. Short calls working great…

Rolled UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts to NOV 30 2018 50.0 Puts @ .10 credit

A TRADE:

SFIX STO 11/9/18 29.0 CALLS @ .50