SPX 1-dte

#SPXcampaign Almost forgot about this so order placed after the bell. Volatility has dropped quite a lot since Tuesday; this condor in only 75 wide, whereas Tue/Wed 1-dte was 160 wide!

Sold $SPX Nov 9th 2745/2765/2840/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tomorrow.

TTD earnings

#Earnings Sold to Open $TTD Nov 9th 100/90 put spreads for 1.75. Had this order in and it filled right before the bell. Stock just dropped after the bell, 100.50 the low (so far)!

I was trying for $YELP long straddle but didn’t want to pay over 6.20, so no fill. Now I can see it dropped 12.00 so it would have been a nice winner. Dick for a tick!

#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS Sold Nov….

#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS
Sold Nov. 16, 105/115/115/125 for 4.27, thanks for the data Jeff.

#shortputs MU Sold Dec. 21…

#shortputs MU

Sold Dec. 21 , 35 put for .71

Fed

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YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 8, 2018 AC 26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC 23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%
Oct. 28, 2015 AC 3.98%

Avg + or – 13.42%
Bias 4.04%, a slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 44.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 38.07 to 49.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.44 to 50.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 32.12 to 56.68

I have more than once bought straddles and profited from this. More than a double on August’s earnings. Even if it opens flat you can get out with a small loss or breakeven. However, I’m seeing today’s straddle is going for about 6.00, which is over a dollar more than I paid in August. I’ll be considering it at day’s end.

Open for requests on other symbols.

#ironcondor AMZN TastyTrade idea, sold…

#ironcondor AMZN

TastyTrade idea, sold Dec. 21 1605/1610/1935/1940 for 1.97.

TTD earnings analysis

#Earnings This is a fairly new issue (oldest earnings date is Nov 2016). It has had huge moves up but minimal moves down. I’m looking at selling the 100 puts, since that’s farther down than its biggest drop. Unless somebody warns me off it!

$TTD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).

Aug. 9, 2018 AC 37.13%
May 10, 2018 AC 43.39% Biggest UP
Feb. 22, 2018 AC 23.84%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -13.96% Biggest Down
Aug. 10, 2017 AC 8.76%
May 11, 2017 AC 30.10%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC -2.84%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 8.62%

Avg + or – 21.08%
Bias 16.88%, huge positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 127.80 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 105.08 to 150.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 100.86 to 154.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (43.4%): 72.35 to 183.25

Open for requests on other symbols.

DIS earnings trade

#Earnings Not a big mover… I’m slightly bullish looking at the chart so doing a low risk #BrokenWingButterfly.

Bought to open $DIS Nov 9th 116/118/119 call butterfly for .70. No upside risk. Breakeven around 116.80. Max profit around 70%.

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC 2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC 2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 1.23%
May 10, 2016 AC -4.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2016 AC -3.75%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 2.36%

Avg + or – 2.30%
Bias -0.89%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 116.5 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 113.02 to 119.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.82 to 119.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.0%): 111.79 to 119.83

Open for requests on other symbols.

REGN

#BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.

Bought to Close REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.70)

FB Falling Knife

Hard to imagine this one would qualify but the chart is the chart.
Sold $FB Mar 15 2019 110 puts @ 1.17.
Delta is 7, and the strike is another 25% lower from here.
#FallingKnife

ATVI earnings analysis

#Earnings $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC 4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC 1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC 8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 3.26%

Avg + or – 5.08%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 58.59 to 67.41
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 59.80 to 66.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 51.11 to 74.89

NOTE: The 18.9% up move is an outlier. It’s the biggest move going all the way back to 2002. So if you remove the outlier, the MAX is 8.5%, which would indicate a range of 57.66 to 68.34.

Open for requests on other symbols.

ROKU Earnings

#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Out at even. Any little bounce tomorrow and it might have been a decent winner but I’ll run while I can and look to re-load. Still a great year in this ticker. 6-0-1 now 🙂 🙂

Bought to Close 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @2.47 (sold for 2.54)

A TRADE:

:

ROKU STO 11/9/18 47.0 PUTS @1.06 Down big, earnings yesterday, when I was young. Expires tomorrow.

PVTL calls closed

#CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .70 .

Assigned at 22.5, cost basis now down to 19.80.

ERX

#ShortPuts #IRA #RiskOff – Another one I’m not completely comfortable with. See ya!

Bought to Close ERX JAN 18 2019 25.0 Puts @ 1.65 (sold for 2.02)

TGT pre-earnings

#PreEarnings Bought to Open $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.62.

Got then from Mama’s chart… .40 delta, (close to) 14 days out from Nov 20th earnings date. 1st batch of up to three. Initial target: 2.70. Thanks @kathycon!

CRM

#ShortPuts #IRA – Stealing @Iceman ‘s #RiskOff tag here. Getting a weak bounce but with resistance still overhead I’m gonna book it and free up the cash.

Bought to Close CRM NOV 16 2018 140.0 Put @ 1.68 (sold for 2.65)

#shortputs #rolling Z Oct. 1…

#shortputs #rolling #shortstraddle Z

Oct. 1 sold a 35/50 strangle in Z, big drop after earnings, rolled the 35 put to Dec. 21 for .55, sold Dec. 35 call for .70, stock is at 30

WYNN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’m finding another advantage of going out in time as far as possible. There’s no need to get super aggressive with weekly sales. Still very easy to cover cost by selling about 30 days out leaving plenty of room for whipsaw. Here’s my WYNN example:

Bought to Close WYNN NOV 9 2018 115.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.32)

This reduces the basis on the 130 strike LEAPS to 23.05

With 26 months to go that only requires .87 per month to cover the cost so:

Sold WYNN DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ 1.13

Expected move on the Dec 7th expiration is about 12 dollars so even though selling below the LEAPS, it’s still outside the expected move and well above the .87 required.

Rolling WYNN

Looks like I’m gonna be in this one for quite a while.
Rolled $WYNN Nov 16 140 puts out to Jan 18 140 puts for .75 credit.

ROKU puts

Sold $ROKU Dec 21 40 puts @ 1.43 with the stock at 49.12. Delta 18 delta.

TWLO

#Earnings – I’m out taking max loss of .74 on a one lot. Assigned short shares overnight that I covered in pre-market. Sold the long call side at the open. Loss was slightly more than .74 with exercise fee and commissions.

Closed TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly

AMZN call spread

#LongCallSpread Bought to Open $AMZN Nov 23rd 1800/1810 call spreads for 2.69. Purely speculative, and aggressive with the short time period.

Z assigned

#Earnings #Assignment Assigned at 34.00 on only one of my 13 puts on $Z. Cost basis 32.55. The rest will be assigned tonight unless I get an exit today. No big worry with a low stock price.