SPX 1-dte

#SPXcampaign Almost forgot about this so order placed after the bell. Volatility has dropped quite a lot since Tuesday; this condor in only 75 wide, whereas Tue/Wed 1-dte was 160 wide!

Sold $SPX Nov 9th 2745/2765/2840/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tomorrow.

TTD earnings

#Earnings Sold to Open $TTD Nov 9th 100/90 put spreads for 1.75. Had this order in and it filled right before the bell. Stock just dropped after the bell, 100.50 the low (so far)!

I was trying for $YELP long straddle but didn’t want to pay over 6.20, so no fill. Now I can see it dropped 12.00 so it would have been a nice winner. Dick for a tick!

#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS Sold Nov….

#earnings #ironbutterfly DIS
Sold Nov. 16, 105/115/115/125 for 4.27, thanks for the data Jeff.

#shortputs MU Sold Dec. 21…

#shortputs MU

Sold Dec. 21 , 35 put for .71

OLED

A new Bear Call Spread for next week –
Sold OLED 11/16/2018 110.00 Calls @ 0.46
Bought OLED 11/16/2018 125.0 Calls @ 0.01.
Interesting fills since these options trade in 5 cent increments.
Stock was just below 101 when these filled on a spread order entered as a 0.45 Credit.

Fed

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YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 8, 2018 AC 26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC 12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC 23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%
Oct. 28, 2015 AC 3.98%

Avg + or – 13.42%
Bias 4.04%, a slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 44.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 38.07 to 49.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.44 to 50.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 32.12 to 56.68

I have more than once bought straddles and profited from this. More than a double on August’s earnings. Even if it opens flat you can get out with a small loss or breakeven. However, I’m seeing today’s straddle is going for about 6.00, which is over a dollar more than I paid in August. I’ll be considering it at day’s end.

Open for requests on other symbols.