Whiz….just missed him

LMAO….Whiz was leaving Vegas today after the trader’s expo and flew out on the airplane I brought in. Wish I woulda known ahead of time. Could have given him a link to the Bistro! 🙂 🙂

BTW…he was in coach. What the heck is that all about??

23 BUCKLEY EDWAR AC2 V MIA 29B
24 BUCKLEY SUSAN AC2 V MIA 29A

#shortcallspreads AMZN Still trying to…

#shortcallspreads
AMZN
Still trying to get this right. I sold a Nov 16 1650/1700 call spread for $5.90cr, added a 1650/1675 call spread for $4.50cr. AMZN was rallying to 1608. Even with daily spikes up $40 I should be safe with price at 1600 at close. Each day the price settles lower by end of day. It can be quite a ride in between though.

#shortcallspreads AMZN Nov 14 expiration,…

#shortcallspreads

AMZN Nov 14 expiration, decided to close out today short leg first trying to maximize gain on small rally. I ended up giving up $2 by timing poorly.
BTC Nov 16 1640/1670 for 10.90, sold for 13 Monday, and STC Nov 16 1630/1660 for $13.60 sold for 12.10 – should have waited till end of day. I sold shortly after noon expecting a rally like last 2 days. Still trying to get this timing right.

#shortcallspreads SPX sell 2720/2735 spread…

#shortcallspreads

SPX sell 2720/2735 spread expiring today (30 min) for 0.75cr, expired worthless.
Also 2715/2725 spread for $1.70 also expired worthless. last 30 min.

EWW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Triple selling these. Stops on previous two sales…

Sold EWW NOV 30 2018 43.5 Calls @ .38

BOIL

#BearCallSpreads – Selling these in the money. Worked great on the big spike a few years ago so trying again. Starting with just one…

Sold BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 4.27

#shortstock XME Sold short 100…

#shortstock XME

Sold short 100 shares of XME for 30.50.

TRADES:

PBYI STO 11/30/18 23.0 CALLS @1.10
PBYI STO 11/16/18 22.0 CALLS @.56
SFIX STO 11/16/18 27.5 CALLS @.25 I have only these two stocks and their short puts and calls at this time. They are working well for me. Can’t be nervous tho’. All the above calls are covered.

And the winner is:

#fuzzies during the market volatility. Makes sense, the spread offsets both sides and the income from selling options helps cushion the drop.

Trying to get back into #pietrades but market not really cooperating at the moment.

I am not the directional…

I am not the directional guy but while eating lunch /NQ just pushed to new 20 day lows on a 5 minute chart and bounced fairly quickly. Not saying this is a bottom but on market profile there is a lot less volume here so any reversal is likely to snap back to 6865 fairly quickly.

What is @fibwizard showing?

Next big levels above that are 6977 and 7104. Big volume at the 6977 level.

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Nov 15th (monthlys) 2560/2580-2765/2785 condors for 1.05. Stop trading at tomorrow’s close, but settling Friday morning. So I will be closing the full position tomorrow.

#shortstock CLR Sold short 100…

#shortstock CLR

Sold short 100 shares of CLR for 45.94.

AZO bucking the trend

One of the few pre-ER stocks that’s staying strong thru this downturn.
#preearnings

BOIL & DUST closed

#ContangoETFs I’m shedding one a day. I can’t roll these, as the current mania could keep going higher. They will have to be made up with multiple smaller premium trades after things settle down.

BTC $BOIL Jan 18th 45 call for 23.60. Sold for 2.40 (avg price) in Sept/Oct. Closed this morning before the move from 60 to 70. I have 4 ITM contracts remaining.

BTC $DUST Jan 18th 50 call for 1.10. Sold for 4.00 on Aug 16th.

Taking some profits

Lightening up to free up buying power
Bought to close:
$WHR Dec 21 90 puts @ .40. Sold for 1.40 on 10/9.
$KMB Jan 18 95 puts @ .45. Sold for 1.35 on 10/22.
$MLM Jan 18 150 put @ .90. Sold for 2.20 on 10/10.
$F Dec 21 9 puts @ .15. Sold for .42 on 9/7.
$SJM Jan 18 95 puts @ .97. Sold for 2.30 on 10/2.
$DUST Mar 15 49 call @ 2.50. Sold for 5.10 on 8/15.
$TNA Nov 16 57 puts @ .45. Sold for .50 on .50 on 11/12–getting out for near breakeven; may sell at a lower strike later.

BOIL stats

#ContangoETFs I searched back for spikes on BOIL that were over 50%. Below is a chart with:

Date of the High
Percentage up from the recent low
Weeks it took to go UP low to high
Weeks it took to go back DOWN to the low (or at least in the neighborhood)

As you can see, from a percentage basis, this current spike is the highest. We also got here more quickly than other spikes above 100%. I don’t know whether we can say that this means we should be topping. But the freak out of current traders, being long oil and short NatGas, is largely responsible for what we’re seeing now.

We know it will drop again, but cannot say how long that will take or how high it will go first.

Screen Shot 2018-11-14 at 10.31.34 AM

#earnings #shortstrangles CSCO Sold Dec….

#earnings #shortstrangles CSCO

Sold Dec. 21 41/49 strangle for 1.15, just outside the max moves, thanks Jeff.

CSCO earnings analysis

#Earnings $CSCO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 15, 2018 AC 2.96%
May 16, 2018 AC -3.76%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC 4.72%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC 5.18%
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -4.01%
May 17, 2017 AC -7.21% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2017 AC 2.37%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC -4.81%
Aug. 17, 2016 AC -0.78%
May 18, 2016 AC 3.18%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 9.64% Biggest UP
Nov. 12, 2015 AC -5.82%

Avg (+ or -) 4.54%
Bias 0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 45.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 42.29 to 47.71
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 42.96 to 47.04
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 40.66 to 49.34

Open for requests on other symbols.

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 14th 2645/2625 put spread for .15. Condor sold yesterday for 1.15. Leaving calls to expire.

WMT earnings analysis

#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 16, 2018 BO 9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO 10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%
May 18, 2017 BO 3.22%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO 2.99%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO -3.08%
Aug. 18, 2016 BO 1.87%
May 19, 2016 BO 9.58%
Feb. 18, 2016 BO -3.01%
Nov. 17, 2015 BO 3.54%

Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 102.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 96.98 to 107.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.80 to 107.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 90.89 to 113.11

Open for requests on other symbols.

NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96%
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC 7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC 14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Aug. 17, 2016 AC -2.67%
May 11, 2016 AC 0.43%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC -14.80% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 11, 2015 AC 2.17%

Avg (+ or -) 7.21%
Bias -3.12%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 219.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 202.42 to 235.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 203.22 to 234.78
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 186.59 to 251.41

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortputs SLB Sold Nov. 16,…

#shortputs SLB
Sold Nov. 16, 47 put for .32, thanks Iceman

#shortcallspreads AMZN Trying my luck…

#shortcallspreads
AMZN
Trying my luck with these again, yesterday sold 1640/1670 Nov 16 spread for $13, added 1630/1660 at $12. I think I sold at bottom. It rose $10, then settled at $2 profit on 1640/1670 trade and small loss on 1630/1660. Today began with a spike upward and now settling back down into profitable area for 1640/1670. It expires Friday with a rich premium if I can hold it that long. The price gyrations are quite upsetting since I was out of synch with price action. It is one to keep an eye on if you like action.

#earnings #closing #shortstraddle M Bought…

#earnings #closing #shortstraddle M
Bought straddle for 4.15, sold yesterday for 4.98.

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign On this morning’s strength, don’t want to get stuck in this one if we continue higher, so taking a smaller loss now rather than facing a bigger roll decision in a few days.

BTC $SPX Nov 30th 2790/2815 call spreads for 7.35. Sold for 6.25 yesterday.