ROKU Earnings

#Earnings – Stand back….this thing could be at 30 or 100 now that I’m in. After WTW and OLED I’m only doing a single strangle.

Sold 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @ 2.54

SQ trade

#Earnings Since we have two days for this to drift around, I’m shooting for the center, hoping that any gap will be closed by Friday.

Sold to open $SQ Nov 9th 77.5/82.5/87.5 #IronButterfly for 4.00. Max risk 1.00.

Closing some UVXY

I’m not putting on many naked short calls on this one these days but the ones I do are on a short leash.
Bought to close $UVXY Jan 18 2019 112 calls @ 1.70. Sold for 4.40 and 6.20 on 10/18 and 10/23.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Now that we’re easing back into contango I’m going to lower the number of short calls I have at risk at any given time so gradually closing those for nice profits. I’ll continue selling one (or two) every week at the top of my put ladder. Short 10 puts against one short call would give me protection for about 30-40 points of upside depending on the week of the call sale. I would welcome the opportunity to roll the short call and let the puts expire…

Bought to Close UVXY NOV 16 2018 70.0 Call @ .38 (sold for 3.40)
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 50.0 Call @ 3.00

Analyzing just the call sale against the short puts gives this. The downside is exaggerated here since I’ve unchecked the LEAP puts that I’m long.

UVXY

#ironcondor AMZN Closed yesterday’s IC…

#ironcondor AMZN

Closed yesterday’s IC for 1.10. sold yesterday for 2.03.

SPX call spread

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2875/2900 call spreads for 4.25. This offsets the 2700/2675 put spread sold on Monday.

TRADES:

SFIX STO 11/16/18 27.5 PUTS @.85 I’m looking t be assigned.
ACAD BTO STOCK @20.59
ACAD STO 11/16/18 21.0 CALLS @.90 A fluke, since I couldn’t repeat the trade.
.

AAPL #ironcondor Couldn’t get filled…

AAPL #ironcondor

Couldn’t get filled on TWLO strangles yesterday, so it goes.

AAPL sold Dec. 21, 180/190/230/240 for 1.52.

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Not seeing a huge bond rally so easing back into these. Hopefully these will take some heat. Stops set on the Nov 30th sale.

Sold TLT DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ .41

OLED

#ShortCalls – Re-loading….

Bought to Close OLED NOV 9 2018 105.0 Calls @ .23 (sold for 1.15)

Sold OLED NOV 23 2018 108.0 Calls @ 1.00

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Bought to Close UVXY NOV 9 2018 62.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.72)

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 7th 2810 calls for 1.70.

Taking a small loss on the 1-day condor, sold yesterday for 1.30. My rule is to stop or roll if we get within 10-points of the short strike. I’m not going to roll because loss is small.

I’ll do this again tomorrow for Friday’s expiration.

TQQQ covered calls

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold to Open $TQQQ Nov 16th 59 calls for 1.25.

TWLO closed for now

#Earnings This doesn’t appear that it will stop. Of course, once one decides that, that’s where it will stop.
But I’m looking for this to go higher. I looked at the lifetime chart, and every gap up is NOT filled… stock continues higher and never revisits the opening low on post-earnings day. This, however, is a gigantic move. I’m going to look to sell some OTM puts, and then wait for higher prices to try to sell calls or strangles.

BTC $TWLO Nov 9th 85 calls for 10.55. Strangles sold yesterday for 1.96.

TWLO & Z… in the vice

#Earnings… Should have closed both of these right at the open. Getting killed on both ends.
Short the $Z 34/47 strangles
Short the $TWLO 60/85 strangles

$Z will be manageable at such a low stock price. $TWLO is unpredictable because it could run for a very long time without stopping. Watching for now. Will roll as necessary.

DUST

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Selling against the long 40 strike LEAPS.

Bought to Close DUST NOV 16 2018 22.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for .45)

Sold DUST DEC 7 2018 25.5 Puts @ .60

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Staying aggressive while there’s still some premium in these. Selling above my block of 50 strike short puts.

Sold UVXY NOV 23 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.17

AMZN

STC Nov 9 1600/1602.5 Calls $2.50

BTO Monday for 1.90 #supercharger

PYPL calls sold

#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 16th 88 calls for 1.15.

#pietrade

TSLA closed

#ShortStrangles #EarningsTradeRepair
BTC $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 1.50. Sold last Friday for 6.37.
Almost got my money back from the August madness. Will sell another on Friday.

WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO 8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC 5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC 1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC 15.83% Biggest UP
Oct. 15, 2015 AC -1.16%

Avg (+ or -) 6.15%
Bias 0.54%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 112.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.05 to 120.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 118.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 94.27 to 129.73

Open for requests on other symbols.

SQ earnings analysis

#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 11 quarters (its entire history).

Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC 1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC 3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC 8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC 14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
March 9, 2016 AC -6.06%

Avg + or – 7.60%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 71.15 to 86.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.00 to 85.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.7%): 61.87 to 96.13

Open for requests on other symbols.