Happy New Year!

Good riddance to trading in 2018. I survived but given the SVXY melt down in Feb. and the last 3 months did not make any money, in fact flat for the year at the same levels I dropped to in Feb. Some accounts up a little, some down but the total portfolio basically flat.

However, as much as I thought I knew I learned a lot more, thanks to a lot of people on this site.

Some fairly decent changes and adjustmentswill be made to my trading for next year. The biggest changes will be changing my directional bias early, always keeping a portfolio hedge (but not until VIX drops and options are cheaper) and bringing in more income with proven strategies.

You will see a lot more #lizardpies using either straddles or strangles depending on the ticker, #unhingedfuzzies, #spycraft will be resurrected but with a hard rule for adjustments based on deltas/gamma, and a lot more synthetic trades to capture directional moves. This may include #riskreversal or outright #synthetics.

Cheers to a new year, new opportunities, and the collective ideas of the group making us all more successful traders!

Chris

Happy New Year

Happy 2019

Thanks for all the great learning during the year.

Health Happiness and Peace to All

RTN WTW WYNN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Made it in just in time for a couple trades…

RTN:
Bought to Close RTN JAN 4 2019 175.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .62 as BeCS)
Sold RTN JAN 18 2019 165.0/175.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .60

WTW: Should be before earnings…
Sold WTW JAN 18 2019 44.0 Calls @ .85

WYNN: No new sales…closed some extras
Bought to Close WYNN JAN 4 2019 115.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.55)

Happy New Year!!

VIX indicator

@jeffcp66, does the SPX have to make new highs to cancel a downside warning? If so, it’s a long way to cancelling the downside.
#vixindicator

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors for 1.10.

A TRADE:

SFIX STO 1/4/18 17.5 CALLS @.35

BOIL out

#ContangoETFs Closing out the year by closing out final $BOIL positions. Was forced out of Jan 45 short calls by the spike higher… made some back with rolls, but still at a loss overall. I will reserve this symbol for large seasonal spikes in the future.

Closed BOIL Mar 50 call for .90. Sold for 4.15.
Closed BOIL June 66 call for .70. Sold for 7.20.

GILD #fuzzy. Rolled the 70/70…

GILD #fuzzy. Rolled the 70/70 18 DTE out to 39 DTE for 0.56 credit this morning at the open. Cb now 8.48.

#OT Just popping in to…

#OT Just popping in to wish everyone a Happy New Year. I hope this crazy market hasn’t drive any of you stark raving mad. I’m still enjoying my sabbatical though missing the market interactions more and more. If you are into out of this worldly events check out the New Horizons fly by of Ultima Thule. Pictures some time around 11AM tomorrow. Have a great safe one and see you some time in 2019.

A TRADE: Added

ROKU BTO STOCK @30.56

Best and Worst

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Waiting for last hour to sell for Wednesday’s expiration.

TRADES:

AMD BTC 1/4/18 15.5 PUTS @.03
AMD STO 1/11/18 16.5 PUTS @.43
AMD BTO STOCK @18.0
DBX STO 1/4/18 20.5 PUTS @.60
ROKU STO 1/4/18 29.0 PUTS @.60
ROKU STO 1/4/18 31.0 PUTS @1.41
ROKU BTO STOCK @30.25
The NTM, ATM Puts are risky, I use them in a certain strategy, and don’t want to lead anyone astray.
A Happy, Healthy and prosperous New Year, to one and all. HONKHONK

FB put spread

Sold $FB Jan 18 125/120 BuPS @ 1.15. May consider taking assignment with a basis below 125 if it goes down there again in the next 2 weeks. Sold in IRA accounts.

Closing some BOIL

Have orders in to close some of these. This one filled:
Bought to close $BOIL Jan 18 50 call @ .25. Sold for 2.87 on 10/17.

SPX

BTO Feb 28 BF 2625/2650/2675 Calls $ 1.35
Looking for a run up

Good Morning

Good Morning

Good morning

Does anyone know what this means. I see it over on SMM.

😎

Follow up info

Here’s some follow up info to the post I did a couple days ago:

1. Scott Ruble is currently at www.stratagem.com His courses are good, but expensive. His “POT” (Practical Options Tactics) subscription is VERY expensive ($299/mo) and generally not worth it, very frustrating (You can get a 30 day trial of POT for free though). He has moments of brilliance, but you have to weed through a frustrating delivery style. @kathycon and I call it “finding gems in the poo.” Aeromir offers a 10% discount for Scott’s stuff, I think the coupon code is “AEROMIR10” or maybe “AERO10”. Scott is a bit like “Whiz-Lite.”
2. Scott used to be at Random Walk and the Random Walk website has some of Scott’s classes…some are even FREE…so I recommend going to www.randomwalktrading.com before doing anything at Stratagem. The “Layered Spreads” class at RW for $95 (on sale right now) is a must investment I think. Very very good, and taught by Scott. You get a very detailed pdf book with the course. If you buy the course, you get access to many videos immediately, but the PDF takes a couple days to receive while they do the ID encoding. All the doc downloads at RW are encrypted with your personal ID…so you can get in trouble if caught sharing them. Ed T. at Random Walk has the “OIA” subscription for $50/ mo….excellent value for what you’ll learn and his professional delivery.
3. Aeromir www.aeromir.com (Aeromir took over the defunct “Capital Discussions” group) has a free membership that gets you two week access to tons of videos (rolling two weeks)…definitely do the RTT 1 month trial for $25.00. You’ll learn a ton of good stuff. After the first month it’s $155. I think you can learn enough in the first month to go it alone. The trial will inundate you with info though….tons of email updates, risk graph images, texts on every update, videos to watch. They’ve recently launched two new services based on RTT, that give you “light” versions of info for a cheaper monthly expense. Just do the full trial and you’ll be on your way. RTT’s have struggled a bit with us in backwardation right now, so they have needed a lot of management…which is actually good to see the approaches they take for defense (Risk Reversals, Rolling Thunder hedges, Reverse Harveys). Aeromir does a lot of roundtables bringing in various trade experts to talk about their designs. If you search on YouTube for “Aeromir Scott Ruble Roundtable” he recently did a really good session on Rolling Thunder. I’d classify Aeromir as kind of a “bulletin board” type core, surrounded with different trade services. Low tech website, but they do bring in some good roundtable speakers, and “Trading Group 1” in the videos are usually worth listening to.

I think that’s about it, I’ll add more if I think of it.
Below is a snap of an article in Stocks and Commodities magazine about the RTT. I have the pdf if anyone wants it, drop me a line. smasterson@yahoo.com Or you might be able to google it.

SueRTT cover

#fuzzy

Calls sold

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .79
Sold $SQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .74

SPX 1-dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 2360/2380-2570/2590 for 1.40.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed yesterday’s for .25 total. With the rolls I had to execute yesterday, the full trade ends up with a .35 loss.

Waiting until closer to the close to sell today’s, to avoid that kind of mess!

Happy New Year!

Hi Everyone! I just couldn’t find a new bread-and-butter trade this year that justified reporting, so I lost track of a lot going on here. I did find some good new approaches though. I found Scott Ruble (Stratagem) to be an excellent teacher on structured courses, but a terrible terrible subscription provider. @kathycon and I have used several of his approaches in the last few months to make money…#AdvancedRiskReversals, #SpikedCollars, #LayeredSpreads, and #RollingThunder. Scott was with Random Walk for awhile before having a falling out. Ed has taken Scott’s place at Random Walk and has a $50/mo subscription service that I quite like. Very reasonable for what you get. Ed’s approach is #PregnantButterflies which layer in spreads in a way to provide wide profit ranges, often risk free. The #RTT (Road Trip Trade) trades at Aeromir are good (BWB), and they manage them very dynamically using a lot of Scott’s teachings. The one month trial of RTT is very worth it. Option Pit is still great….but VERY deep and takes a ton of cerebral work….especially if you think you know it all already (like I did).

The only update I’ll give is on NFLX. I made a solemn vow in @fuzzballl ‘s name that I would stick with this until I was even. I started at $358 a share and am now down to $272….that’s a ton of cost basis reduction! I’m accomplishing this two ways…. 1. using weekly debit wide broken wing put flies (Ed calls them “Venus Flies” for the downside collar, and. 2. using weekly covered calls to finance the flies. As you can see I’m still off the mark on break even….but I’m being mechanical with the income collection and tracking every cent against the cost basis. I’ve only got 100 shares of NFLX so the ride down has been manageable.

Hope we all get what we want from the market next year! This last year is one of those that seriously refines you as a trader. Survive….and you come out a much better trader.

Sue 🙂

#advancedriskreversals

EOG #fuzzy 110/110 leap puts….

EOG #fuzzy 110/110 leap puts. Rolled the long out to 2021 for additional 3.20. Cb increased to 14.64 but now have 107 weeks to manage it.

Econ Calendar for week of 12/31/18

#Jobs report is Friday. And Powell speaks later that morning.

screen shot 2019-01-04 at 10.43.13 am

Screen Shot 2018-12-28 at 10.30.10 AM

Link to calendar: https://optionsbistro.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/screen-shot-2018-09-24-at-6-07-52-am.png

BABA and the long LEAPS idea…

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Something I’ve been considering for awhile now that things have dropped so much. Looking at getting into a long term BABA position. Instead of buying LEAPS at the money I’m considering going out of the money further to save a lot of cash up front and then just selling the weeklies more conservatively.

Looking at LEAP strikes in 2021 somewhere in between it’s current range. It’s traded from 130 up to 210 so halfway is about 170. Could even go to 180 and get that for half of what the 130 would cost. On a recovery it will still make good money but not require a whole lot of weekly selling to get the cost back.

No position yet…

#pietrades LNG 61 cc rolled…

#pietrades

LNG 61 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.53

Lot 2 62 CC rolled out 14 DTE to 61 cc for 0.53. Cb 57.7

Might have a few more later in the day

#fuzzy

#assignment I’ve been traveling some,…

#assignment
I’ve been traveling some, watching the carnage and getting assigned on many ITM put positions, turning me into a #coveredcalls guy.
From the correction, I involuntarily own shares of AAPL, AA, AMAT, AXDX, KORS, M, MAT, MRO, NKTR, SLB, T and X. You hedge fund managers can start a buying spree on any of these.
Denny’s still won’t go down.

LABU

STO January 25, 45/50 call spread at .20 cents. I am pre selling these against my 65 calls that expire on January 18.

Question for @fuzzballl as I…

Question for @fuzzballl as I am debating closing some #fuzzy for tax purposes or keep them rolling.

Have a few that are way ITM now. Wish I had ratioed them in Oct. but too late now. Since you seem to be the only one with enough patience to take these to the end here are my questions

1. About how long does it take you to scratch the trade one ITM?

2. Seems like the best way to get any decent premium is to sell 43-45 DTE and reset at 22 DTE. Have you found that as well?

3. Once the new series of LEAP comes out does it make sense to roll the longs to the new leap for $3-4 or hang on to the one you have until the end?

Thanks!

I am debating taking some tax losses and resetting vs. hanging with the ones I have.

SPX 1-dte roll

#SPX1dte What a face ripper!

Sold the condor below for 1.30 with 48 minutes before close when SPX was at 2440.
The call side hit my stop 20 minutes later (expected move breached short strike) with SPX going past 2475.
Stopped call side, BTC for 2.65.
Sold new call side: $SPX Dec 28th 2565/2585 for .75.

Then rolled put side after the bell: Closed 2340/2320 for .10.
Sold 2400/2380 for .60.

So best I can do tomorrow is small loss, near breakeven. Bonkers market… gotta wait until last 10 minutes on this trade to be safe.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX 2320/2340-2520/2540 condors for 1.30. Shorts are 180 apart.

BA put spread

Down today but seems like it’s stabilizing after the last couple of days.
Sold $BA Jan 18 290/280 BuPS @ 2.20. Delta of short strike 29.

more UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Just to take all risk off for tomorrow on this fairly aggressive position…

Bought to Close UVXY DEC 28 2018 81.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 3.10 total after multiple roll ups)

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Tomorrow’s look pretty safe so adding a starter a couple weeks out to give Mr. Market something to think about…

Sold UVXY JAN 11 2019 75.0 Puts @ 2.00

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – A small roll up for next week…

Rolled UVXY JAN 4 2019 70.0 Puts to JAN 4 2019 75.0 Puts @ .75 credit

LABU

BTC 65 calls @.05

STO January 18, 2019 bear call spread 40/45 @.45 cents. It looks like I will have to roll these for the next 2 years in hope of breaking even. This was  a very dumb trade.

#fuzzy

I tend to learn something…

I tend to learn something every down turn. This one is no exception. Will keep it short and sweet.

1. Always keep a hedge on. Whether that is VIX futures, SPX puts, /es put or puts on your portfolio. I calculated my SPX hedges that I closed 3 weeks before the market sold off, each contract peaked at 43k Christmas eve, I had 2. That would have more than offset my losses and given me a pile of cash to trade or pay off my mortgage. I think going forward I will sell some leap puts on something I want to own and use the proceeds to cover hedges for an entire year. Call it the house paid for lottery ticket. If it even pays off once a year is worth it. Even once every 2-3 years it will pay for itself.

2. When direction starts to change, quickly ratio your spreads for the directional kick. Perhaps as early as delta 30.

3. Long stock set up a 30 dte synthetic short. Sell 1 atm call on your stock and buy just as many atm puts. At least then your losses are capped and may be a lottery ticket again. Good idea for IRAs.

4. Always keep some cash handy for opportunities like this.

5. Once a spread is deep ITM, probably better to close it and start over. Commissions are low enough now even at TOS that I probably should have reset 3 of my #fuzzy.

6. Volatility creates opportunity but also sometimes wide spreads and trouble trading. What you thought was liquid not so much when the SPX is down 300 points. Better to have the adjustment on early.

7. Not sure the bear is over but today helped all my positions so I will start looking to unwind when I can. Market drops give you a chance to reset trades.

8. Once a bottom is put in go syntheic long and don’t cap your gains!!

Hope everyone else is recovering and has some cash ready 🙂

Just read a statistic

25% of the S&P is trading below 10x earnings.
On the techncial side, T2108 (% of stocks above their 40 day moving average) is still deeply oversold obviously at 6.45. It got down to 3.45 on Monday–it hasn’t been at that level since the implosion in Oct 2008.
Hoping today’s impressive action actually means something. Would love to be dipping my toe back in but I’ve been cautious. Some follow through (similar to the Dalia Lama’s promise of total consciousness)…would be nice.

OLED

#ShortCalls against #BullPutSpreads – More risk off on extra sales.

Bought to Close OLED JAN 4 2019 110.0 Calls @ .20 (sold for 1.15)

XBI

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booking a full position and selling a half position.

Bought to Close XBI JAN 4 2019 77.0/82.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .09 (sold for .71)
Sold XBI JAN 18 2019 77.0 Calls @ .76

TQQQ

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Pounded this one pretty hard all the way down. Staying careful now to get out of the way in case of a big rally. Closing more extra sales for profits.

Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 11 2019 43.0 Calls @ .40 (sold for .67)

DG

#BullPutSpreads – Giving back a little of the profits booked on the way down and getting deltas back in balance. Selling against 110/90 bull put spreads so all good overall.

Bought to Close DG JAN 11 2019 109.0 Calls @ 1.35 (sold for .92)

WTW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Triple sales on this one so taking some upside risk off even though these were still very safe. Not getting greedy here…

Bought to Close WTW DEC 28 2018 48.5 Calls @ .15 (sold for 1.85)

AAOI

#CoveredCalls – I’ve finally begun the long slog to as much of a recovery as I can get. Early assigned on Jan 2020 70 strike puts a few weeks ago. (70 strike with a basis of 53.75…uugh). I am long some Jan 2020 12.5 puts that are nicely profitable but not booking those yet.

Replacing this week’s covered call expiration. (sold for .40)

Sold AAOI JAN 18 2019 17.0/25.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .49

Looking for a buck a month and a little recovery in the stock to get out. Using spreads in case we wake up one day and they’re getting bought out for 50 bucks (not sure who would want them…LOL). At some point a bankruptcy will be more beneficial with my long puts but for now still need some basis reduction.

MO

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Small position in a low priced stock. Need 4 cents per week out to 2021. 🙂 Already recovered 25 percent of the LEAPS cost.

Bought to Close MO DEC 28 2018 53.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .36)
Sold MO JAN 18 2019 51.0 Calls @ .53 (one week prior to earnings hopefully)

Finally some what appears to…

Finally some what appears to be short covering rally. Even if santa is a few weeks late I will take it 🙂

SMH

#LongCalls #LEAPS – More oversales. Taking these off at 50 percent of max…

Bought to Close SMH JAN 11 2019 91.0/96.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .33 (sold for .71)

A TRADE:

SFIX STO 1/4/19 16.0 PUTS @.40

TNA

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Oversales on these also. Haven’t replaced them (yet)…

Bought to Close TNA JAN 4 2019 55.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .52 as BeCS)

DG

#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Triple sold these so taking the stop out on this batch at a decent profit…

Bought to Close DG JAN 4 2019 110.0 Calls @ .44 (sold for .70)

TRADES:

NRZ BTO STOCK @ 14.52
PBYI BTO STOCK @ 21.27

TQQQ

STO January 2021, 55 calls @ 5.50 which are offset by my 2021, 60 calls. I am scaling the calls out and my next level is 6.10 and, I still have the January 18, 2019, 50/55 call spreads that I expect to expire at zero or I may cover at .05 cents. My reasoning is that even though we are going up today and the market is very over sold, the trend is down and we are in a stage 4 decline. I expect the bear market to last 12 to 18 months.

When I see the market move above the 30 week moving average on volume, I will cover the 2021, 55 calls and see if we can make a new high if we are in another bull market at that time. That is my game plan and I have 2 years to make it work. I still intend to sell short dated call spreads  against the 2021 calls.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed shorts for .05 each. On Monday, sold the 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Tomorrow I’ll sell one for the Friday expiration.

TRADES:

ROKU STO 12/28/18 29.5 CALLS @.38
DBX STO 12/28/18 19.50 PUTS @.30
DBX STO 12/28/18 20.0 CALLS @.40 Will buy stock to cover if necessary.
All expire in 3 days. All naked.

SMH TQQQ UVXY WYNN

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Selling the rip again…

SMH: Double dip next week…
Bought to Close SMH JAN 4 2019 94.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .55)
Sold SMH JAN 4 2019 86.0 Calls @ .70

TQQQ: Covered…
Sold TQQQ FEB 15 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.70

UVXY: Double and triple dips…
Rolled UVXY DEC 28 2018 75.0 Puts to DEC 28 2018 81.0 Puts @ .90 credit
Rolled UVXY JAN 4 2019 65.0 Puts to JAN 4 2019 75.0 Puts @ 1.13 credit

WYNN: Covered…
Sold WYNN JAN 18 2019 105.0 Call @ 1.80

SQ closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .07. Sold for .75 on Friday.

Alpha Shark Indidcator

@hcgdavis – Hey Chris. I just purchased the indicator for the opening price. Forwarded the email received after purchase to you and Bryan. Thanks!

OLED REGN UVXY

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #BearCallSpreads -A couple late fills…

OLED:
Bought to Close OLED DEC 28 2018 105.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.10)

REGN:
Bought to Close REGN DEC 28 2018 385.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.20)

UVXY:
Rolled UVXY JAN 4 2019 70.0 Puts to JAN 4 2019 75.0 Puts @ 1.14 credit

Happy holidays to everyone.

See you on Wednesday.

On Christmas Eve?

#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve.

May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!

TQQQ calls covered

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .10. Sold for .85 on Friday.

SPX 1 -dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 26th 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Short strikes 235 points apart.

TRADES: Listening to Merle Travis pickin’ ;>)

NRZ STO 1/18/18 14.0 PUTS @.70
NRZ STO 1/18/18 15.0 PUTS @1.49
SFIX STO 12/28/18 17.5 CALLS @.35
AMD STO 12/28/18 17.0 CALLS @.50
AMD STO 12/28/18 17.5 CALLS @.36
PCG STO 12/28/18 23.5 CALLS @.55
Speculative, but figure it’s going to be a short and slow week, so ………

RTN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Not interested in carrying this one to 2021 unless I have to. Selling spreads well OTM shooting for even and then so long RTN! Need .23 per week to get to even…

Bought to Close RTN DEC 28 2018 177.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .58 as BeCS)
Sold RTN JAN 11 2019 162.5/172.5 Bear Call Spreads @ .69

UNG

#LongPuts #LEAPS -Rolling weeklies down and out. 3×2 ratio against the long puts so working ok…

Rolled UNG JAN 4 2019 31.0 Puts to JAN 18 2019 30.0 Puts @ .01 credit

OLED

#ShortCalls – A couple nearer term positions are nicely profitable with stops set so adding a new one. Outside the expected move and prior to earnings…

Sold OLED JAN 18 2019 100.0 Calls @ 1.50

LABU NVDA STX TNA TQQQ

#CoveredCalls – Assigned some shares so getting the covered calls working right away. Selling slightly below basis so won’t hesitate to roll on a rally. Sales on individual stocks are (hopefully) prior to next earnings.

LABU:
Sold LABU FEB 15 2019 35.0 Call @ 1.68

NVDA:
Sold NVDA FEB 01 2019 145.0 Call @ 4.50

STX: Nice divvy down here…
Sold STX JAN 18 2019 40.0 Calls @ .68

TNA:
Sold TNA FEB 15 2019 45.0 Call @ 1.75

TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 04 2019 45.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.60)
Sold TQQQ FEB 15 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.60

Merry Christmas Eve!

Did not think I would trade today but the continued market puke fest took all the time value out of a few of my positions.

MU rolled the 18 DTE 40/40 #fuzzy out to 39 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 14.8. I suspect there is a lot of tax loss selling in the this and WDC and hope they will rebound in the new year.

I have some EXPE trades in the cue but the market makers are being greedy.

Also, even though my equity curve is now down, in my core account I have generated 17% cash returns over the last 12 weeks. As @kathycon I believe said below, equity is lower but cash is higher. Good to have some cash to use but this time I am waiting until I see a shift.

Maybe, just maybe that was the bottom this morning. The VIX spiked to 33.38 and hopefully that will mark the low. I was personally thinking we needed a vix spike 30-50 before a bottom. Of course it could go much higher but the last major dips were done when there was real panic.

Merry Christmas

BOIL UVXY TQQQ

#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #BearCallSpreads – A few fills at the open…

BOIL:
Bought to Close BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.25 (sold for 3.00, 3.25, 4.27)

UVXY:
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 28 2018 65.0 Puts @ .07 (sold for 2.75)
Sold UVXY JAN 4 2019 70.0/60.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.00
Rolled UVXY JAN 4 2019 62.5 Puts to JAN 4 2019 70.0 Puts @ .82 credit

TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 4 2019 47.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .63 as BeCS)
Sold TQQQ JAN 18 2019 39.0/45.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .70

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Selling one for Wednesday expiration before the close.

Darkest before the dawn

Here’s Jesse Stine’s 2019 forecast. There’s nothing like a good dose of contrarian sentiment to help you think more clearly.

The link to the newsletter is at the bottom of the page. http://jessestine.com/friends-and-family-market-alerts/

 

Leveraged ETFs

There has been some talk here and on TastyTrade about the dangers of leveraged ETFs and how they fall harder and faster than their underlying ETFs. So I did a little research of my own based on the 2018 correction starting in October. 🙂

SPY -18.3% from 9/20 high
UPRO (3x SPY) -47%
—–
QQQ -21.3% from 10/1 high
TQQQ (3x QQQ) -55.2%
—–
IWM -26% from 8/31 high
TNA (3x IWM) -61.3%

In all cases, the leveraged ETFs have fallen less than 3x the drop of the underlying. With respect to whether leveraged ETFs keep up with the underlying on a bull run, I won’t cite them all. However, since the Jul 2010 low to the Oct 2018 high, QQQ was up 304% and TQQQ was up 3,619%. It may be true that the 3x ETFs don’t work for day trading due to one-day discrepancies but over time, the leveraged shares make a fine investment imo, especially if you have time to push thru the slogs to the next rally.

#LeveragedETFs

UVXY spreads & overall approach

#VXXGame My attempts at legging out of the $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads were also a failure, but only a bit worse than allowing them to expire. Sold for 5.68 (avg price), some will expire for 10.00, some closed for 10.60, and assigned short shares on a couple others, cost basis 69.43.

Also, I took off some risk this week without rolling. First we’ve experience a market like this 2008, and I wasn’t trading then. I hold very few short options positions compared to many times in the past, and my remaining short $UVXY calls are hedged with a greater number of long calls, albeit much further OTM.

Suffice it to say the only thing working right now are the 1-day SPX condors. I’m finished trying any more directional positions until market is clearly finished with this. If we go much lower, I will continue to shed positions slowly.

BTC $UVXY Mar 15th 75 call for 16.00, sold for 6.125, avg price, in Sept/Oct
BTC $UVXY March 15th 95 call for 10.15, breakeven, sold for 10.15 in late October.

Closed $SOXL Feb 15th 75 put for 12.70. Sold for 7.00 as a roll.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I tried to leg out and leg in to the condors today. I continue to suck at those attempts like no other. This time, I paid more than necessary to exit today’s condor, but still with a profit. I was mildly successful at legging in to Monday’s.

Closed $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for .60 total. Sold for 1.05 yesterday.

Sold $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for 1.40 total.