DG TNA TQQQ XBI

#LongCalls #LEAPS – I thought I was done but I can’t resist selling a little more into this volatility. Gives me a little extra hedge if we open down next week also.

DG: Stop set on next week so going out with an overlapping sale. Selling against 110/90 put spreads so any sale above 110 is a nice one.

Sold DG JAN 4 2019 110.0 Calls @ .70

TNA: Booking and selling. Fairly aggressive double dip next week.

Bought to Close TNA DEC 21 2018 66.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .81)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .62

TQQQ: Same as TNA double dipping next week…(hopefully)

Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .85)
Sold TQQQ DEC 21 2018 46.0 Calls @ .82

XBI: Booking and selling.

Bought to Close XBI DEC 21 2018 85.0/95.0 Bear Calls Spreads @ .01 (sold for .63….legged out to get the net penny 🙂 )
Sold XBI DEC 28 2018 81.5 Calls @ .40

Just for margin purposes in the IRA: Bought XBI DEC 28 2018 88.5 Calls @ .01 paired with 81.5 and 82.5 short calls.

Whew! Happy weekend everyone!

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 14th 2580 puts for .20.

Sold $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors for 1.05.

AMZN put spread

Sold $AMZN Jan 18 1400/1390 BuPS @ 1.50

WTW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – This is turning into one of my more interesting positions. Started out as a blown out earnings strangle and then became a covered call position. To free up cash the stock was rolled into 2021 LEAP calls at the 50 strike. Throughout the entire ordeal I’ve managed to stay pretty close to even but unable to get all the way there. Still not bad when considering it all started up around 80 and the stock is below 48 now.

It’s trying to find a bottom or could be setting up for another leg down. As long as it’s grinding sideways, I’ll keep hammering the weekly sales right at the money with great premium. This could end up being a longer term hold. Starting to see a lot of potential considering all the premium brought in so early in a 2021 position…

These are non ratio’d full sales that I will roll at the first sign of negative deltas. Otherwise keep selling.

Bought to Close WTW DEC 14 2018 49.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.15)
Sold WTW DEC 28 2018 48.5 Calls @ 1.85

That’s it for me this week (I think ). Another pretty good week of selling with the elevated volatility…

Hey Gang,

For those of you who wish to read this, here’s what’s been going on with me. I had already announced that I planned to retire in April, the volatility mess in Feb hurt, and it sucked big time, but it did not change the calculus on retirement plans. I have never mentioned this, on purpose, but worked for Rockwell Collins ($COL now part of $UTX) for 32 years. I had worked my way into a very unique position where I was the only person in the company doing what I did. I was involved in projects with very senior leaders where I wasn’t even allowed to tell my boss what I was doing. So, my retirement caused them some grief trying to figure out what to do since I could not be directly replaced by anyone in the organization. I spent Feb, Mar and April training a number of different people to take over the things I was working. That took all of my time and effort, so had to just walk away from the market altogether.

Even before the Feb mess occurred, I had been wanting to move away from what I was doing and head for futures day trading. I liked the idea of being able to be flat at the end of every day and not have to worry about after hour shenanigans, or what was happening in China, etc…. Had spent quite a bit of time picking @Fibwizard‘s brain and working on a strategy that would work for me. Once I retired, I dove pretty deep into it and figured out a good approach, but eventually had to look elsewhere. I had figured out a strategy that I could implement, and if I had still been working and at my computer all day, would have gone that way. But, with retirement, I didn’t want to spend all day staring at my screen waiting for the right setups. Lots of other things I wanted to do with my time.

Around that time @smasty160 told me about a guy named Tony Rago @ TheoTrade who was trading /NQ futures with other traders, calling out what they were doing real time in a live chat room. I spent some time studying his approach and watching. I then started paper trading it on TOS. The worst possible thing that could have happened, happened, for the next 3 weeks it worked beautifully and I killed it. So I decided to go live. First day, first trade ended up a very small loss, no biggie. Next trade, got long, and seconds later a Washington headline crushed the market and I had to hit eject as it just kept heading south, no rebound at all to give me a better exit. After what happened in Feb, the last thing I wanted was to be starting something new and losing money at it. So had to be back to paper trading. 3 weeks later when I had some confidence back and was consistently making money, first day back trading real money and you guessed it, bang, another headline hit while I was long and got crushed again.

Not much you can do about the headline risk, but the better I get at trading, the fewer trades I have to take to make my goal for the day and thus the less amount of time actually being exposed to the market.

His overall approach makes sense and Tony put a lot of time and effort into developing it, but I wasn’t really happy with it as is:
1) Sometimes it worked right away
2) Sometimes it worked but you had to deal with some heat first (never feels good as you don’t know if it will continue to go against you or not), which is OK with Tony, he accepts it as part of his thesis. Since it is his, and he put the time into developing it, he has that level of confidence in it. Me, not so much.
3) Sometimes it just plain didn’t work

I before I spent any more capital, I wanted try to figure out how to put the odds on my side

I needed a better set of rules to use.

I spent months fine tuning the approach, trading for a few weeks, analyzing failures. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’ve had times I went 3 weeks trading without a single loosing trade only to have it start to fail so spent more time tweaking. I have definitely put my time into it. I now have time frames, EMA’s and patterns identified that put the edge dramatically in my favor when entering a trade. Still working on my execution, having the patience to wait for the high probability setups and identifying them real time as they are developing, they are always obvious later looking at the chart :). I trade for about the first hour of trading, 1.5 hrs max.

On the flip side, retirement definitely doesn’t suck. I’ve been loving it.

Econ Calendar for week of 12/17/18

Fed decision released Wednesday at 2pm ET

Screen Shot 2018-12-21 at 10.31.34 AM

Screen Shot 2018-12-14 at 10.21.41 AM

Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=17&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0

#shortputspread AAPL November 2, sold…

#shortputspread AAPL

November 2, sold a Dec. 21, 180/190 put spread for 1.27. I sold the long put today for 13.35, giving me a cost basis of 175.39 after assignment next week. Right now there is decent call volume over the next month and unless AAPL keeps going down , I may be out by earnings at the end of January.