WYNN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Filled on a batch of the over sales. Looking to sell ’em again tomorrow either for the double dip next week or the week after…

Bought to Close WYNN DEC 21 2018 120.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.16)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors. Sold Friday for 1.05.

Also, stopped $SPX Jan 17th 2420/2400 put spreads for 3.65, since expected move breached my short puts. These were sold as a roll from a stopped #SPX1dte spread (sold condor for 3.00 on Nov 20). With one roll down of the call side, I’m getting out of this with only a .20 profit (or basically breakeven after commissions). Will look to roll into a new condor later this week.

Double down

Bought more $SPX Dec 28th long 2700/2720 call spreads for .85 (first batch bought this morning for 1.80). With a double position it is easier to sell half at a decent profit and let the other half ride as long as I can. After today’s action the only thing I can be playing for is a rally after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. And by rally, I don’t mean much higher than 2700 before we probably resume the downtrend.

New UVXY high

#VXXGame We just exceeded the 10/29 high of this correction on $UVXY.
The $VIX is still 3 points below its correction high set on 10/11.

We are setting up today to hit our 7th downside warning in this correction.

BOIL closed

#ContangoETFs Closed the last of my $BOIL Jan 45 calls for 3.30. I’m underwater despite a few rolls, but this is closest to the money that I had. I want to be ready should we get another winter push higher.

Covered Calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .10. Sold for .90 on Thursday.
BTC $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .10. Sold for .84 on Thursday

#spx 12/17 IC/IF Risk $50 for $100

IV is up with the Fed meeting on Wed.
Next Expiration ES Vertical/Binary Signals
Entry:
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2485×2475 Put Spread/Binary
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2630×2640 Call Spread/Binary
Price: 1.90+ combined credit, 2.00+ is preferred
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: 3x credit per side
ie, 1.00 for spread, the stop is 3.00
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Expiration SPX Iron Butterfly Signals
Entry:
Sell SPX Closest Expiration 2460x2560x2660 Iron Butterfly
Price: Max Credit Possible for Iron Fly
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: Credit for Iron Fly x1.5
ie, if the iron fly credit is 30, the GTS stop limit debit would be 45 points.

…by the roadside in a ditch

Watching the carnage, this one came to mind. (click the photo)

ZZ_Top_-_Eliminator

12/14 spx trades

meant to post these on friday, will try to post wednesday’s trade plan today.

Next Expiration ES Vertical/Binary Signals
Entry:
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2555×2545 Put Spread/Binary
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2650×2660 Call Spread/Binary
Price: 1.90+ combined credit, 2.00+ is preferred
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: 3x credit per side
ie, 1.00 for spread, the stop is 3.00
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Expiration SPX Iron Butterfly Signals
Entry:
Sell SPX Closest Expiration 2500x2600x2700 Iron Butterfly
Price: Max Credit Possible for Iron Fly
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: Credit for Iron Fly x1.5
ie, if the iron fly credit is 30, the GTS stop limit debit would be 45 points.

#contangoetfs BOIL Down below 38…

#contangoetfs BOIL

Down below 38 today

SPX long

#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 28th 2700/2720 call spreads for 1.80. Looking for a trickle higher into the end of the year.

Kinda what I’ve been expecting…

…but so far, still waiting…

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

At the lows, do we…

At the lows, do we finally get a Santa rally or drive further off the cliff.

I would not mind the seasonal Santa rally but so far has not looked like it is going to happen.

Trade smart and don’t drink too much eggnog!

Closed SOXL call

#ContangoETF’s While short puts continue to decay (very slowly), closed $SOXL Feb 150 call for .90. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd. I’ll sell more calls on any rally.

UVXY

#LongPuts #LEAPS – Let’s see if Mr. Market can get to these…after Fed meeting government shutdown should be in the headlines so not expecting any big volatility collapse this week…

Rolled UVXY DEC 21 2018 57.5 Puts to DEC 21 2018 62.5 Puts @ 1.05 credit (2.35 total now)

ORCL earnings analysis

#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, since expiration is 4 days away on Friday.

**** FIVE-DAY moves ****

Mon 09/17/2018 AC 3.90%
Tue 06/19/2018 AC -4.68%
Mon 03/19/2018 AC -13.79% Biggest DOWN
Thu 12/14/2017 AC -4.74%
Thu 09/14/2017 AC -8.99%
Wed 06/21/2017 AC 9.77% Biggest UP
Wed 03/15/2017 AC 5.06%
Thu 12/15/2016 AC -4.55%
Thu 09/15/2016 AC -4.38%
Thu 06/16/2016 AC 3.49%
Tue 03/15/2016 AC 7.07%
Wed 12/16/2015 AC -6.39%

Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias -1.52%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 46.70 the data suggests these ranges into Friday’s expiration.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 43.62 to 49.78
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 43.71 to 49.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 40.26 to 53.14

Open for requests on other symbols.

Good morning

Another ugly day in the market.