Researching an Idea

Hi gang, I thought some of you might be interested in a method I am testing.  ‘Have a friend who took his TOS sim account from $100k to $1.3 million in a couple months using this idea the last few months.  If you are like me you don’t trust sim prices, but eventually i had to look into it.  One week of trading real time in sim, and adding significant friction to overcome the sim pricing and the results are encouraging, +35% in my first week.  We will begin live trading this Friday.

The model is simple and uses spx/es next expiration options.

model: sell the atm iron fly, set stops for each vertical spread at 1.3x the vertical spread credit.

once a stop takes place: lower the stop for the other side to break even, look for a cross of the short term ma on 1 min bars and set up another iron fly, set stops at 1.3x again.

rinse and repeat, once the 4th iron fly is established, take profits on the leg remaining from the first iron fly.  Keep taking profits as iron flys are established.

this is a ton of work, but it made 12 spx points today after slippage and commission, with 33 trades.

 

#s

#market

#market
sell1

TNA TQQQ

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another round…let’s see if the market can get back to these.

TNA:
Bought to Close TNA DEC 7 2018 67.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .92)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 66.5 Calls @ .81

TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 7 2018 55.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .45 after paying a debit roll)
Sold TQQQ DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .85

DG

#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Replacing this week’s 122’s…

Sold DG DEC 21 2018 109.0 Calls @ .60

Yesterday I was a trading…

Yesterday I was a trading GENIUS, screen looked like pea soup, today I’m a trading moron, screen looks like salsa with a teeny teeny bit of cilantro.

Bipolar market again, either buy…

Bipolar market again, either buy everything or sell everything. Anyone have a sign for that? The only thing saving my accounts is large positive theta decay, $300+ daily no matter which way the market moves.

NFLX put spread-Dec

Sold $NFLX Dec 21 250/240 BuPS @ 1.20. IV rank is 68. Delta of the short put is 16.

#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Sold Dec….

#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE

Sold Dec. 21, 85/125 for 1.28, outside the averages, just inside the call max,-thanks for the info Jeff

TQQQ calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Since these started the day ITM, taking profits now as this may be a sustained bounce.

BTC $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for .55. Sold last week for 1.25.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1-dte — in trouble again, last week to upside, today on downside. If we get no bounce I’m going to roll into an ATM or ITM put spread a week or two out.

UVXY call spread

#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 4.35. Max risk 5.65, but also can manage to roll if we stay above this level for 2 more weeks.

Also, Sold UVXY Jan 2020 135 call for 9.50.

SQ calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Dec 7th 67 calls for 1.00. Sold in a roll for 3.10 last week. Stock now at 65.00 after topping out at 73.00 yesterday.

FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports Wednesday afternoon. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 6, 2018 AC 13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC 21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC 4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC 0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC 10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC 9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC 2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC 6.81%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 5.44%

Avg (+ or -) 6.66%
Bias 5.82%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 104.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.10 to 113.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 97.07 to 110.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 81.27 to 126.73

Open for requests on other symbols.

RTN

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Bought to Close RTN DEC 14 2018 185.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .86)

BOIL Dec

Sold $BOIL Dec 21 105 calls @ 1.50. BOIL would need to double from here in 2 1/2 weeks to reach the strike.

OLED

#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Hopefully add some more later in the week when the current ones get a little more profit in them…

Sold OLED DEC 21 2018 105.0 Call @ 1.00

KOLD

STO Jan 18 8 Put 1.05
also have Dec 21 8 Put

RH calls

Sold $RH Jan 18 165 calls @ 3.00 with the stock at 144.96.

#shortstrangles WLL TastyTrade idea sold…

#shortstrangles WLL

TastyTrade idea sold Jan. 18, 26/38 strangle for 1.68

#earnings #shortstrangles DG Closed 101/123…

#earnings #shortstrangles DG #shortstraddle GME

DG Closed 101/123 strangle for .95, sold yesterday for 1.52.
GME November 29, sold 15 straddle for 2.20, bought today for 1.70

LULU date moved

#Earnings $LULU shifting to Thursday after close:

http://investor.lululemon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lululemon-athletica-inc-announces-date-change-its-third-quarter

RH earnings

My apologies but they announced last night. Looks like they moved up a day at some point… TOS and others reflect it accurately but optionslam.com failed to move it.