#Earnings Sold $ISRG Oct 19th 490/565 strangles for 5.25. My strikes are -6.7% and +7.6% OTM.
I’m skipping the $SKX straddle… I think the stock is too low already to drop far enough, and I don’t see it blasting higher in this market. Watch me be wrong in 10 minutes!
Filled near the highs: Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 112 call for 14.50.
#VXXGame
#Earnings $AXP reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC 7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC 5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 9.02% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC 0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% (Biggest DOWN)
Oct. 21, 2015 AC -5.24%
Avg + or – 4.03%
Bias -0.13%, so really no significant bias up or down.
With stock at 102.70, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 98.76 to 106.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.56 to 106.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 90.27 to 115.13
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 11.00, adding to my position. I forgot to sell short-term calls on Tuesday’s rally, but that’s the plan!
#Earnings $SKX reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 41.44% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2017 AC 0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC 6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 3.93%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC -31.50% (Biggest DOWN)
Avg + or – 16.74%
Bias -3.54%, a negative bias on earnings
With stock at 26.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 22.70 to 30.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.06 to 30.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 15.52 to 37.48
#Earnings $ISRG reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC 8.17% (Biggest UP)
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC 6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC 5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% (Biggest DOWN)
July 19, 2016 AC 4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC 3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC 1.89%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC 5.58%
Avg + or – 4.30%
Bias +2.11%, an upside bias on earning
With stock at 542.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 510.43 to 573.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 518.72 to 565.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 497.72 to 586.28
#LongPuts I still got two weeks left on my long $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts. But market isn’t cooperating yet, so I want to add to the probability that I’ll catch the drop.
Bought to Open $VIX Nov 20th 16 puts for 1.10.
#PreEarnings Sold to close $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for .25. Bought for 1.28, avg price.
#VXXGame Highest Strikes
Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 112 call for 3.10 (yesterday)
Sold $UVXY March 112 call for 5.25 (today)
#ContangoETFs
Sold $BOIL Dec 45 call for 2.45
Sold $BOIL Jan 45 for 3.80, adding to my position
#PreEarnings Sold to close $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .70. This is a double-sized position, so I closed half. Leaving the other half. Avg purchase price .477.
Could throw some volatility into the afternoon.
#LongLEAPs #LongCalls
Bought to open $SQ Jan 2020 110 calls for 7.90, adding to the position I started yesterday.
Will wait to sell short term calls on rallies.
#PreEarnings Following on a couple of Mama’s trades; these two symbols have been good for me lately.
Bought $EOG Nov 2nd 125 calls for .94. Earnings on Nov 1st pm
Bought $SHOP Oct 26th 150 calls for 1.90. Earnings on Oct 25th am
#Earnings $URI reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC 0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC 3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC 11.20%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 4.69%
July 20, 2016 AC 9.14%
April 20, 2016 AC 7.86%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -18.37%
Oct. 21, 2015 AC 9.97%
Avg + or – 6.60%
Bias +1.26%
With stock at 139.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.43 to 148.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.82 to 148.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 113.47 to 164.53
#ContangoETFs BTC $GUSH Dec 21st 57 call for .50. Sold for 5.20 on July 9th.
#Earnings This may bode well for the market if NFLX is going to gap this high.
#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).
Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.
The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.
Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.
And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).
Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.
Panic buying into the close!
All of my long #Pre-Earnings trades (except CAT) are back on the map today, although definitely still weak. $VALE and $AMZN are best, at breakeven…. and that’s with VALE being the only underlying that is NOT up today.
#PreEarnings It’s feverish of me to add to such a dog, but it actually lowers my cost basis to .567, which I think gives this a good shot at breaking even. Plus, it only costs me scratch.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .06, adding to my position.
#LongLEAPs I sold my stock and Jan 2019 60 calls on the 5th, when $SQ was at 94.50. Man, what a drop! Now looking to leg in long again.
Bought to Open $SQ Jan 2020 110 call for 7.40.
Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 call for 1.50.
I play this one a bit differently than @fuzzballl, going fairly far OTM rather than ATM. SQ topped out at 101.15 on Oct 1st, and this LEAP was going for 19.00 and higher.
#Earnings Below are details on $IBM earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC 8.86%
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC 2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -4.87%
Oct. 19, 2015 AC -5.74%
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 135.23 to 148.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 135.61 to 148.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 129.42 to 154.58
#Earnings Below are details on $NFLX earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC 9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC 9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC 13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC 3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC 19.02%
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Oct. 14, 2015 AC -8.29%
With stock at 333.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 299.36 to 355.64
Based on Average move over last 12 quarters: 305.38 to 360.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 269.66 to 396.34
#Earnings looking good for financials, lifting futures.
Sat on my hands today… I don’t know whether to short or go long… need another day!
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DUST Nov 16th 49 call for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Aug 15th.
BTC $DUST March 15th 60 call for .80. Sold for 3.00 on Aug 16th.
Bought to Open $UVXY Nov 9th 112 call for 1.30. A hedge against short calls. I’d rather be selling it, but gotta stay safe!
The stock market looks like it is due for much more pain, even as it teases with comeback rallies https://t.co/YI4cKTPBsr
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 15, 2018
Anyone got technicals on it?
#LongCalls Meant to enter a trade to buy more at 1.35. But I entered “sell” instead, so was filled at the market price. Good thing SPY bid/ask is so tight..
STC $SPY Nov 16th 285 calls for 1.80. Bought for 2.71 yesterday.
To avoid day-trade issue on my smallest account, I moved down a strike.
BTO $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 2.15. Adding more if we flush down further today.
I’m going to start posting this on the Friday before, rather than Monday morning. Note that this calendar is always available immediately in the menu at the top of the Bistro page.
Link to calendar website: http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam
#PreEarnings Bought $AMZN 1890/1900 long call spreads for 3.20. AMZN dropped 300 points in 8 trading days. I think it can raise 110 from here in 14 days.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2019 95 call for 6.90.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Oct 19th 2935/2960 call spreads for .15. Sold for 2.90 on Monday.
Bought $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts for 1.25, adding to my position.
#PreEarnings Added final batch to $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 1.65. I was early, much cheaper now.
I ended up legging into a long SPY strangle, playing for opening gap or big move in either direction tomorrow.
Previously, BTO $SPY Oct 12th 270 puts for 1.55
Just now, BTO 276 calls for 1.04
STC $SPX Oct 12th 2725/2700 bear put spread for 4.35. Bought this morning for 1.90. Missed the lows, waited for the bounce to fade, then it didn’t fade, so I bailed. Still have some SPY puts down at 270 which will work if we can get another flush.
Bought $SPY Oct 12th 270 puts for 1.55. Will sell it if we get another flush down, or hold overnight if we don’t.
#ContangoETFs
BTC $GUSH Dec 57 call for .75. Sold in May and July for 5.35 (avg price)
BTC $DUST Nov 16th 60 call for .15. Sold for 1.95 on Sep 5th.
#VXXGame
STO $UVXY March 95 call for 10.15
#CoveredCalls
BTC $PVTL Oct 19th 20 covered calls for .05. Sold for .45 last week.
#Pre-Earnings Bought $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 2.00. Earnings are Oct 25th. This looks like the top performer on Mama’s chart. Starter position, will add more.
Bought to close $SPX Oct 12th 2800/2825 call spreads for 5.40. Sold this morning for 9.00. Holding on to the long puts for another drop.
For small accounts, where can I see my day-trade counter?
#VXXGame UVXY added strikes up to 95 in all expiries. $VXX up to 58 or 60.
Bought $VXX Nov 2nd 58 calls for .62
Bought $UVXY Nov 2nd 95 calls for 2.09
These are a minor hedges against UVXY short calls. I don’t have many yet but will add more if it gets higher.
#LongCalls Bought to open $SPY Nov 16th 285 calls for 2.71. This is grounded in the belief we’ll be reaching for new highs by the end of October. Pretty cheap play that will be a double if we get back to 2900 on SPX.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Oct 12th 2800/2825 bear call spreads for 9.00. Short-leash idea that we’ll go lower today.
#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.
#ContangoETFs This is one of the few short options positions I’m managing in this correction…
I have a few #VXXGame positions, but other than that my shorts are mostly calls in commodity ETFs that aren’t as affected by the selloff.
Sold $SOXL Dec 85 put for 5.40.
Sold that for 1.60 more than I sold the Dec 90 put on Monday.
#VXXGame Not something I’ve done before,
Bought to open $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts for 1.30. A bet we’ll be back below 12 by the end of the month. I’ll add more if I can get the price down closer to 1.00.
Big day. Time to turn on CNBC and watch them all freak out. The British host seems so calm, though.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 85 call for 14.15. Highest available strike.
#SPXcampaign Stopped out, $SPX Oct 19th 2790/2765 put spreads for 6.05. Sold this morning for 3.25.
Basically I just lost the same amount that my call spread is winning me.
Will look for better entries at a better time. Now is not it!
#PreEarnings Well, you gotta pick a bottom sometimes… actually, you don’t really, but I did. Doubling down on my two lowest priced long options trades. These report Oct 23 & 24, respectively.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .29. Avg cost now .827 on a double sized position.
Bought $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .44. Avg cost .477 on a double size.
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 12.60, adding to my first one I bought for 17.60 last Thursday.
Financials are flat on a 1% down day.
#PreEarnings Bought my last batch of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.05. Avg price on full position, 1.20.
The remainder are all under water. Holding up best are $GPC And $VALE. $CAT and $MSFT hobbled.
$JPM not too bad… since I sold half, the position has only a small max loss… I may keep this second half past Friday morning earnings in case we get a gap open.
#VXXgame I was early on this but sold $UVXY March 75 call for 7.25, adding to my position.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2790/2765 put spreads for 3.25. Offsets the call spread I sold Monday.
Everything I dumped on Friday is lower now, except $REGN. The only one holding up.
$SPX just exceeded Monday’s low, but VIX is a full point lower than Monday’s high.
#PreEarnings Bought phase 2 of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.40. Started yesterday at 1.00.
#PreEarnings Bought to open $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for 1.75. Starter position.
#PreEarnings Bought to Open $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .50, following @kathycon. Thanks!
#PreEarnings All of my long pre-earnings trades are sinking, but it gives me the chance to add my final leg to $MSFT:
BTO $MSFT Oct 26th 116 calls for .88. Avg price of full position: 1.17.
MSFT has not confirmed earnings date, but the expectation is Oct 25th.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th (Friday PM) 2935/2960 call spreads for 2.90. For a move further down in the next few days, or at least weakness that I can close by end of this week. I’ll look to see a put side on any deep dip.
#ContangoETFs At the bell, filled on my next $BOIL Jan 45 call for 3.00. Put in my next for 3.75
#VXXGame new higher strikes added in most expiries.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).
This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.
#LongCalls My shot at a long trade didn’t pan out. This is why I never used to buy options; too hard to determine when to close. Could have taken only a small loss had I sold at the right times Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday! How many times does the market have to tell me before I’ll make the move?
Expired: $MU Oct 5th 45 long calls, bought for 2.02 on Sep 14th.
#CoveredCalls Sold to Open $PVTL Oct 19th 20 calls for .45.
#PreEarnings Bought to open $MSFT Oct 26th 116 call for 1.15, adding to the position started yesterday.
#SuperCharger STC $REGN Oct 26th 380/390 BuCS for 5.57. Bought for 7.35 on Tuesday.
STC $AMZN Oct 19th 1880/18890 BuCS for 5.00. Bought for 7.25 yesterday.
I’ll look to add these or others back when it appears a bottom is in.
Intraday levels highest since late June.
Downside Warning in effect if we close at 14.52 or higher.
#LongCalls A bright spot, sold $SQ Jan 2019 60 calls for 35.25. Bought for 3.51 average price between last November and January. My attempts at short term diagonals ended up being a loss overall since this stock had such wild swings and blew through my calls a few times. So cost basis is actually increased to around 5.50.
Had a come to Jesus moment at about 2 in the morning. I realized I needed to consider dumping a lot of positions. My account size has not budged much in the last couple months… money I’ve made in options has been sucked away by too many crappy stock positions. Other than AAPL and SQ, stock has not been good to me, all #PieTrades I have tried, rather Earnings repair or from scratch, have been huge dogs.
So I just dumped almost all stock positions.
Winners: $AAPL, $SQ
Losers: $FB, $BABA, $OLED, $MU, $OLED, $YY, $AMAT
Fortunately, other than $FB, the losers were all only 100 shares. AAPL and SQ were both 200. My FB losses were minimal since I have sold covered calls for a year on 100 shares, getting that lot down to 105.00 cost average. I then had more shares added in August earnings dump.
Now I can focus on strategies that I have more control over, rather than the whims of stock prices.
I’m still in options positions in $BOIL, $GUSH, $DUST. Also long calls in $PYPL (Jan 100’s, not doing well). Sticking with pre-earnings trades in $CAT, $JPM, and $MSFT. Long stock in $PVTL, since its so cheap. And a few #VXXGame short calls, and my long running long puts, the $VXX Jan 20 puts, which have lost so much potential in this volatile year.
Dumped underwater short puts in $RH. That symbol has simply killed me, I must quit it!
Also, closed $SPX Oct 12th 2825/2850/2960/2985 condor for breakeven at 4.15.
I’m looking to exit the #SuperChargers since short strikes have been breached, in $AMZN and $REGN.
#PreEarnings Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for 1.20, adding to the position started yesterday.
#Jobs Lower than expected, but previous months boosted higher, and unemployment reaches historic lows.
+134,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 180K expected
Unemployment falls to 3.7%, down 0.2%, lowest since 1959
U6 unemployment at 7.5%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, 2.8% year over year, 0.1 lower than August
Labor force participation 62.7%, no change
July increased 147K to 165K
August increased 201K to 270K
Options Bistro 