#Earnings Sold to close $EOG Nov2/Nov9 106 #DoubleCalendar for 2.80. Bought yesterday for 1.90.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
#Jobs Higher than expected.
+250,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.4%, down by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, or 5 cents, 3.1% year over year, highest increase April 2009
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.2
September revised downward from 134k to 118k
August increased 270k to 286k
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 #DoubleCalendar for .48.
Trying for an $EOG 106 calendar for 1.90 but may bail if I don’t get filled.
#SPXcampaign trying something new to me, but I know is a common strategy for others.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 2645/2665/2780/2800 iron condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow. Will roll into a longer term condor if SPX gets within 10 pts of either short.
IV has gone up in last 20 minutes so you can get this for more, or move out a strike.
#Earnings I’m legging into $AAPL short Nov 2nd 232.5 calls, against the 205 puts I sold this morning. Filled on 1 so far at 1.02. Next fill is for 1.10.
BTC $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 3.01. Sold for 6.50 last Friday. Will look to do another one tomorrow.
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANET Nov 2nd 202.5/270 strangles for 2.05.
$ANET reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC 3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC 18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
May 5, 2016 AC 5.11%
Feb. 18, 2016 AC 11.77%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 13.71%
Avg + or – 9.82%
Bias 4.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 215.96 to 258.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.17 to 260.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 191.35 to 283.65
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings BTC $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for .24. Sold strangles yesterday for 1.82.
I’m looking at Strangles on $ANET, $BABA, and $OLED.
Considering double calendars on $EOG, $CVX, and $SBUX.
What else you looking at?
#Earnings Bought to close $CI 200/222.5 strangles for .25. Sold yesterday for 1.97.
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO 3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO 2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO 0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO 5.08% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 BO 3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Oct. 27, 2015 BO 4.04%
Avg + or – 3.25%
Bias 0.57%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 134.69 to 151.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.36 to 147.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 134.56 to 151.44
Expected move is same as Maximum move, which is rare.
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings Sold $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for 1.60. Will sell calls if we can rally. I sold early, thinking this morning weakness will be bought. Hopefully the whole day doesn’t turn ugly!
#Earnings $AAPL reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC 5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC 4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC 6.49% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -6.57% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2015 AC 4.12%
Avg + or – 4.50%
Bias 1.22%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 206.86 to 229.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 208.19 to 227.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.6%): 203.68 to 232.15
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings Got assigned this stock with cost basis of 20.35.
Sold $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .70
#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:
$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%
Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
RUT lagging at 1%
Dow 1.75%
SPX 2%
NDX leading at over 3%
VIX down 11%, approaching 20.
#SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $PYPL Nov 9th 85.5 calls for 1.15
Sold $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for 1.30
#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.
$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%
Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.
$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%
Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
#ContangoETFs Another ETF working as expected, drifting ever lower. I foolishly should a strangle weeks ago to roll out of a pressed call. So now it has been breached.
BTC $GUSH Dec 21 puts for 3.45. Sold in a strangle for 3.87 on Aug 15th.
Sold $GUSH Jan 2019 25 call for 3.50. Will sell another.
Also: BTC $GUSH March 55 call for .40. Sold for 4.20 on Sept 25th
#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.
#Earnings I’ve confirmed from their website that earnings will be after the close today, even though some sources have not confirmed themselves.
Below are details on $STMP earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC 3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC 11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 35.88%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.23%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 21.04%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 38.10% Biggest UP
Avg + or – 13.43%
Bias 7.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 205.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.12 to 231.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 177.91 to 233.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (38.1%): 127.20 to 283.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
I’m out of the two short call spreads with losses. Holding off on replacing until we get indication of next direction, higher or back to lows.
#Earnings
BTC $BIDU 150/155/205/210 condors for .10. Sold yesterday for .70. (Filled right at the bell)
BTC $BIDU Nov 2nd 155/205 strangles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80. (filled six minutes later)
#SPXcampaign Man, my exits have been sucking lately. Was too greedy when the SPX was flat today, so missed a fill then and caught in the updraft. I really have to work on this. It got up to at least 3.00 in profit, before it slipped away and became a 3.00 loss.
BTC $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 10.85.
Selling a higher spread now or in the morning. I’m not turning bullish unless VIX drops more or we get several up days in a row.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.
Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 8.00. This is on a short leash and probably close out at end of today. 1 DTE and not far OTM.
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.
$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%
Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%
Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%
Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67
Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.
Open for requests on other symbols.
Tech leading the way, AMZN below 1500. It’s lost a fourth of its value from the highs.
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ Nov 2 58 calls for .12. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Looks like I’ll be adding to my #LongLEAPs this week.
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for .11. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 19th.
#ContagoETFs BTC $SOXL Dec 85 put for 9.00.
#Rolling Sold $SOXL May 65 put for 9.25
#SPXcampaign I was looking for a higher move before we topped, so I didn’t get these trades off in time. I managed to close one of my SPX spreads for 3.20, just above break-even, which gave me the heads up to start looking for a full exit. But that turned out to be the top so far. Maybe we’ll bounce at flat, and then I’ll be sad about these trades. But overall, I’m looking for a test of Feb lows before we get out of this mess.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2725/2750 call spreads for 5.55.
Sold to close $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for .90. Bought for 3.10 on Friday.
Still holding a way OTM long put spread expiring the 9th. Will hold it for a deep plunge.
#Earnings $CMI reports in the morning before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 BO 4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64%
May 2, 2017 BO 6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO 1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 7.62% Biggest UP
Oct. 27, 2015 BO -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 4.19%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 125.81 to 141.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.91 to 139.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 121.90 to 145.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
#ShortStrangles Now that this one is volatile again, premium is jacked.
Sold to Open $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 6.50.
#SPXcampaign I bought longs in both directions, because I have no idea which way we’ll head in short term, but I think we’ll be moving strongly in both directions over the next few days. The dates and strikes are sort of randomly chosen near the 3.00 price .
Bought $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.10.
Bought $SPX Nov 9th 2500/2475 put spreads for 2.70.
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
October #Jobs report is Friday, Nov 2nd, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us
If we remain bullish today, $AMZN could end up in the #IronButterfly profit range of 1715 to 1765. Fingers crossed.
#SPXcampaign Although I feel there are still drops aheads today, I don’t want these spreads to turn into loses. Small loss on today’s but better win on the one i sold yesterday.
BTC $SPX Oct 29th 2700/2725 call spreads for 5.00. Sold an 90 minutes ago for 4.45.
BTC $SPX Nov 2 2760/2785 call spreads for 3.30. Sold yesterday for 6.25.
I may enter again if we hit resistance.
#VXXGame I may be late on this, but since I don’t remember seeing it posted:
Strikes added in $UVXY up to 122 in all expiries except Jan 2020, which is 120.
Also, June is now available.
New highs today. Rolling my lowest strikes, the Jan ’19 70 calls.
#SPXcampaign
BTC $SPX Oct 26th 2625/2600 put spreads for 4.30. Sold yesterday for 2.20. Missed my fill on the order to close yesterday.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 29th 2700/2725 call spreads for 4.45. Probably close this today.
#Earnings I sold the 300 way too early on Tuesday, before I heard their earnings date was moving. I’ll be selling a strangle later today.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 300 call for 13.00. Sold for 4.60 on Tuesday.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 330 call for 1.16. Sold for 2.05 on Tuesday.
#earnings
At the bell, filled on closing $GOOGL Oct 26th 1000/980 put spreads for .35. Condor sold yesterday for 3.00. I’ll let the calls expire.
Closed $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for 1.06. Bought yesterday for .54.
Closed $AMZN Oct 26th 1600/1575 put spreads for 2.70. Condor sold yesterday for 3.75. I’ll let the calls expire.
The $CL and $GILD dbl cals not faring as well. Waiting for a hopeful rise in the stocks.
Can you imagine having an 8 or 9% drop in one day (let alone 20)? The biggest drops all happened before $UVXY existed. We are now below the 200 dma.
…at least for a few minutes.
BREAKING: First read on US Q3 GDP up 3.5%, vs 3.4% growth expected https://t.co/0KZE77VG3E
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 26, 2018
#SPXcampaign I was trying to get a fill on this before the bell, but didn’t. Then I moved to sell it quickly as I saw both GOOGL and AMZN down sharply. Not looking good for the market tomorrow unless the conference calls get these higher.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2760/2785 call spreads for 6.25.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Followed Mama on three of these ideas…
Bought $CL Oct26/Nov2 64 dbl calendars for .44
Bought $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for .54
Bought $GILD Oct26/Nov2 70 dbl calendars for .95
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Nov 2nd 58 calls for 1.20.
Sold $SQ Nov 2nd 77 calls for 1.20.
#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold to open $GOOGL Oct 26th 980/1000/1175/1195 condors for 3.00
Biggest UP move: 5.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% , Average move: 3.5%.
Stock is up to 1110, so my strikes are +5.9 and -9.9% OTM.
$SPX and indices up and moving toward 2%. However, $VIX opened lower but since then has been in consolidation. Tonight’s AMZN and GOOGL results may portend tomorrow’s open but I’m looking for a near-term peak to get short again. If we’re still going up on Monday I’ll start to reassess.
#Earnings
Look how docile GOOGL is… its range has been small, and I’ve usually skipped it due to lack of premium. But with IV up, premium is huge at the ranges below. If I go back to the 13th Quarter there was a 16% up move, so beware that despite the recent quiet, GOOGL can move big.
$GOOGL reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2018 AC 3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC 3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC 3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC 1.31%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 5.60%
Avg + or – 3.51%
Bias +0.22%, very slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 1095.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1035.20 to 1154.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1056.56 to 1133.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 1033.68 to 1156.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings #IronCondor
Sold to open $AMZN Oct 26th 1575/1600/1950/1975 condors for 3.75.
IV is jacked up on most, so it allows for wide strangles and condors. Biggest UP move: 13.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My trade is +11.4% on the upside and -8.3% on the downside. It is a bullish positioning because of the historical ranges, but even if we drop I don’t think we can get to 1600.
#Earnings Sold $AMZN Oct 26th 1710p/1740p/1740c/1770c #IronButterfly for 28.10.
Exited my mistake long for 28.10 and added the correct short IB.
This is 1.90 of risk for a max gain of 28.10. It’s impossible to make the full 28.10, but if price is within 28.10 from 1740 tomorrow, you’ll win. This is better than I get for this trade usually, I guess do to elevated volatility on the market. You can’t beat the R/R.
I’m going to try another later in the day, perhaps centered higher in the belief that the stock will go up tonight.
#ContangoETFs Sold $DUST Jan 2019 45 call for 2.00
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 26th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.20.
Bought to Open $SPY Nov 21st 283 calls for .66
Bullish action looks decent today, but a collapse wouldn’t surprise me. I’ll probably close the SPX spread later today, but may hold overnight.
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 AC 0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC 3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC 2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC 0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC 9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 6.22%
Avg + or – 4.69%
Bias +1.56%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 1720.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1608.25 to 1831.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1639.38 to 1800.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1492.79 to 1947.21
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Market Pretty in-depth analysis, published Monday, but an interesting read and lots of historical data comparisons to geek out on.
Will The U.S. Stock Market Enter A Bear Market In Mid-2019?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4213219-will-u-s-stock-market-enter-bear-market-midminus-2019
#VIXIndicator Another Downside Warning fired today with the VIX closing at 25.23. That’s the highest close of this correction (although the intraday high was on Oct 11th), and the highest VIX close since February 12th.
This is the 4th warning of this correction. After the initial Warning, additional warnings can sometimes signal the bottom, but not always.
I skipped all earnings trades just to watch the carnage.
In the most benign trade ever:
Closed on GTC order: $GUSH Dec 45 calls for .25. Sold in August as part of a #StrangleRoll. My 21 puts are threatened….. that’s why I never sell puts in these things!
If we don’t bottom here or in the morning, that’ll be all she wrote.
#VXXGame Throwing one more out there…
Sold $UVXY March 112 call for 8.75. Adding to one sold for 5.25.
But pretty far below the VIX highs. This is somewhat typical… the VIX will often spike to its highest point on the first major downdraft of a correction, the calm a bit even though the index sinks lower. We need a strong flush in the market to get this correction behind us. Although we just went lower on SPX (and NDX, and Dow yesterday) it doesn’t seem like that capitulation panic we usually get at the bottom.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Closed on GTC order: $TQQQ Oct 26th 60 calls for .15. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Will wait for at least a small rally before selling more.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
STC $UPS Oct 26th 115 double calendars for .64. Bought yesterday for .89, so small loss. Stock dropped too much. Could have gotten a modest profit at the open but waited for a bounce that didn’t come.
#Earnings BTC $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for .735. I had an order in for this all morning at .70. I just switched the order to .75 and it immediately filled for .735.
#Earnings $VLO reports tomorrow before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 BO 6.85% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO 2.63%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.33%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -1.78%
July 27, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -1.48%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO -3.62%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO 4.93%
July 26, 2016 BO 4.73%
May 3, 2016 BO -3.66% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -2.19%
Oct. 28, 2015 BO 1.53%
Avg + or – 2.94%
Bias +0.50%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 85.60 to 94.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.35 to 92.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 83.84 to 96.17
Open for requests on other symbols.
Could today be the day we get the panic low?
#Earnings $MSFT reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC 1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC 1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 6.41%
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC 4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC 5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC 5.82%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 10.07% Biggest UP
Avg + or – 3.87%
Bias +2.45%, fairly strong upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 107.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 100.91 to 113.09
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.38 to 110.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 95.78 to 117.22
Open for requests on other symbols.
#ShortPuts #ContangoETFs Sold $SOXL Feb 75 put for 7.00. This one is getting a little nerve wracking, breaking 100 today. I have 3 shorts; won’t be selling new ones, and rolling any that get breached.
I’m looking at a lot of symbols today. I’m only going to post this one without being asked. Please let me know of any symbols you would like to see this analysis for and I’ll be happy to post.
#Earnings $TSLA reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC 0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 4.73%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 11.17%
Avg + or – 6.57%
Bias +0.36%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 255.48 to 324.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.94 to 309.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 243.08 to 336.92
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Oct26/Nov2 150 call/put calendars for 2.475 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.40.
