Procter & Gamble $PG is up 7.26% today on earnings. Its prior best one-day reaction to earnings since 2001 was +4.33% back in January 2002! Best earnings reaction for PG since at least 2001 today. pic.twitter.com/yZ0Sg6GBCY
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2018
Author Archives: Jeff
SQ synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 calls for 1.25. Good premium for only one week out. It topped out at 80 last week. These are against my 2020 #LongLEAPs.
Hedging more
#VXXGame Bought to open two each of the following, giving me almost $10K in margin as they release pressure from short calls.
BTO $VXX Jan 2019 105 calls for .44
BTO $UVXY Nov 16th 112 calls for 1.25
I do think we will have at least one more drop before recovery.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for 7.10.
These expire a week from today.
ISRG closed
#Earnings BTC $ISRG Oct 19th 490 puts for .53. Sold the 490/565 strangles yesterday for 5.25. I’m letting the calls expire.
PYPL synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for 1.20.
These aren’t really that covered, as I have the Jan 2019 100-strike #LongLEAPs, which are trading for about 1.00.
Also looking to sell calls in $SQ, where premium is much higher than PYPL, so I’m waiting to see if it tops out.
ISRG Earnings
#Earnings Sold $ISRG Oct 19th 490/565 strangles for 5.25. My strikes are -6.7% and +7.6% OTM.
I’m skipping the $SKX straddle… I think the stock is too low already to drop far enough, and I don’t see it blasting higher in this market. Watch me be wrong in 10 minutes!
UVXY
Filled near the highs: Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 112 call for 14.50.
#VXXGame
AXP Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $AXP reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC 7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC 5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 9.02% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC 0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% (Biggest DOWN)
Oct. 21, 2015 AC -5.24%
Avg + or – 4.03%
Bias -0.13%, so really no significant bias up or down.
With stock at 102.70, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 98.76 to 106.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.56 to 106.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 90.27 to 115.13
This one goes to eleven
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 11.00, adding to my position. I forgot to sell short-term calls on Tuesday’s rally, but that’s the plan!
SKX Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 41.44% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2017 AC 0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC 6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 3.93%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC -31.50% (Biggest DOWN)
Avg + or – 16.74%
Bias -3.54%, a negative bias on earnings
With stock at 26.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 22.70 to 30.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.06 to 30.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 15.52 to 37.48
ISRG Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC 8.17% (Biggest UP)
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC 6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC 5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% (Biggest DOWN)
July 19, 2016 AC 4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC 3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC 1.89%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC 5.58%
Avg + or – 4.30%
Bias +2.11%, an upside bias on earning
With stock at 542.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 510.43 to 573.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 518.72 to 565.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 497.72 to 586.28
Ticks nix my VIX pick
#LongPuts I still got two weeks left on my long $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts. But market isn’t cooperating yet, so I want to add to the probability that I’ll catch the drop.
Bought to Open $VIX Nov 20th 16 puts for 1.10.
GPC done and done
#PreEarnings Sold to close $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for .25. Bought for 1.28, avg price.
UVXY
#VXXGame Highest Strikes
Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 112 call for 3.10 (yesterday)
Sold $UVXY March 112 call for 5.25 (today)
BOILing over again
#ContangoETFs
Sold $BOIL Dec 45 call for 2.45
Sold $BOIL Jan 45 for 3.80, adding to my position
A Pre-earnings trade preVALEs
#PreEarnings Sold to close $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .70. This is a double-sized position, so I closed half. Leaving the other half. Avg purchase price .477.
FOMC minutes at 1pm ET / 11am PT
Could throw some volatility into the afternoon.
Getting SQ
#LongLEAPs #LongCalls
Bought to open $SQ Jan 2020 110 calls for 7.90, adding to the position I started yesterday.
Will wait to sell short term calls on rallies.
EOG and SHOP
#PreEarnings Following on a couple of Mama’s trades; these two symbols have been good for me lately.
Bought $EOG Nov 2nd 125 calls for .94. Earnings on Nov 1st pm
Bought $SHOP Oct 26th 150 calls for 1.90. Earnings on Oct 25th am
URI earnings data
#Earnings $URI reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC 0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC 3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC 11.20%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 4.69%
July 20, 2016 AC 9.14%
April 20, 2016 AC 7.86%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -18.37%
Oct. 21, 2015 AC 9.97%
Avg + or – 6.60%
Bias +1.26%
With stock at 139.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.43 to 148.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.82 to 148.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 113.47 to 164.53
GUSH down
#ContangoETFs BTC $GUSH Dec 21st 57 call for .50. Sold for 5.20 on July 9th.
And another Boom… NFLX
#Earnings This may bode well for the market if NFLX is going to gap this high.
Correction Data
#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).
Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.
The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.
Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.
And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).
Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.
Boom
Panic buying into the close!
All of my long #Pre-Earnings trades (except CAT) are back on the map today, although definitely still weak. $VALE and $AMZN are best, at breakeven…. and that’s with VALE being the only underlying that is NOT up today.
CAT scratch fever
#PreEarnings It’s feverish of me to add to such a dog, but it actually lowers my cost basis to .567, which I think gives this a good shot at breaking even. Plus, it only costs me scratch.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .06, adding to my position.
SQ long
#LongLEAPs I sold my stock and Jan 2019 60 calls on the 5th, when $SQ was at 94.50. Man, what a drop! Now looking to leg in long again.
Bought to Open $SQ Jan 2020 110 call for 7.40.
Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 call for 1.50.
I play this one a bit differently than @fuzzballl, going fairly far OTM rather than ATM. SQ topped out at 101.15 on Oct 1st, and this LEAP was going for 19.00 and higher.
IBM earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $IBM earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC 8.86%
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC 2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -4.87%
Oct. 19, 2015 AC -5.74%
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 135.23 to 148.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 135.61 to 148.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 129.42 to 154.58
NFLX earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $NFLX earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC 9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC 9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC 13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC 3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC 19.02%
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Oct. 14, 2015 AC -8.29%
With stock at 333.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 299.36 to 355.64
Based on Average move over last 12 quarters: 305.38 to 360.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 269.66 to 396.34
Good morning
#Earnings looking good for financials, lifting futures.
Not much
Sat on my hands today… I don’t know whether to short or go long… need another day!
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DUST Nov 16th 49 call for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Aug 15th.
BTC $DUST March 15th 60 call for .80. Sold for 3.00 on Aug 16th.
Bought to Open $UVXY Nov 9th 112 call for 1.30. A hedge against short calls. I’d rather be selling it, but gotta stay safe!
Good morning!
The stock market looks like it is due for much more pain, even as it teases with comeback rallies https://t.co/YI4cKTPBsr
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 15, 2018
How high will we bounce before going negative?
Anyone got technicals on it?
Fat fingers
#LongCalls Meant to enter a trade to buy more at 1.35. But I entered “sell” instead, so was filled at the market price. Good thing SPY bid/ask is so tight..
STC $SPY Nov 16th 285 calls for 1.80. Bought for 2.71 yesterday.
To avoid day-trade issue on my smallest account, I moved down a strike.
BTO $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 2.15. Adding more if we flush down further today.
Econ Calendar for week of 10/15/18
I’m going to start posting this on the Friday before, rather than Monday morning. Note that this calendar is always available immediately in the menu at the top of the Bistro page.
Link to calendar website: http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam
AMZN and UVXY
#PreEarnings Bought $AMZN 1890/1900 long call spreads for 3.20. AMZN dropped 300 points in 8 trading days. I think it can raise 110 from here in 14 days.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2019 95 call for 6.90.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Oct 19th 2935/2960 call spreads for .15. Sold for 2.90 on Monday.
Added to VIX trade
Bought $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts for 1.25, adding to my position.
Tools of the trade
#PreEarnings Added final batch to $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 1.65. I was early, much cheaper now.
Long a strangle
I ended up legging into a long SPY strangle, playing for opening gap or big move in either direction tomorrow.
Previously, BTO $SPY Oct 12th 270 puts for 1.55
Just now, BTO 276 calls for 1.04
SPX put spread closed
STC $SPX Oct 12th 2725/2700 bear put spread for 4.35. Bought this morning for 1.90. Missed the lows, waited for the bounce to fade, then it didn’t fade, so I bailed. Still have some SPY puts down at 270 which will work if we can get another flush.
Day trade shot
Bought $SPY Oct 12th 270 puts for 1.55. Will sell it if we get another flush down, or hold overnight if we don’t.
A few trades
#ContangoETFs
BTC $GUSH Dec 57 call for .75. Sold in May and July for 5.35 (avg price)
BTC $DUST Nov 16th 60 call for .15. Sold for 1.95 on Sep 5th.
#VXXGame
STO $UVXY March 95 call for 10.15
#CoveredCalls
BTC $PVTL Oct 19th 20 covered calls for .05. Sold for .45 last week.
SWK pre-earnings
#Pre-Earnings Bought $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 2.00. Earnings are Oct 25th. This looks like the top performer on Mama’s chart. Starter position, will add more.
SPX call spread closed
Bought to close $SPX Oct 12th 2800/2825 call spreads for 5.40. Sold this morning for 9.00. Holding on to the long puts for another drop.
TOS question
For small accounts, where can I see my day-trade counter?
New UVXY strikes, hedging
#VXXGame UVXY added strikes up to 95 in all expiries. $VXX up to 58 or 60.
Bought $VXX Nov 2nd 58 calls for .62
Bought $UVXY Nov 2nd 95 calls for 2.09
These are a minor hedges against UVXY short calls. I don’t have many yet but will add more if it gets higher.
SPY long
#LongCalls Bought to open $SPY Nov 16th 285 calls for 2.71. This is grounded in the belief we’ll be reaching for new highs by the end of October. Pretty cheap play that will be a double if we get back to 2900 on SPX.
SPX short
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Oct 12th 2800/2825 bear call spreads for 9.00. Short-leash idea that we’ll go lower today.
Fugly
#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.
Adding to SOXL
#ContangoETFs This is one of the few short options positions I’m managing in this correction…
I have a few #VXXGame positions, but other than that my shorts are mostly calls in commodity ETFs that aren’t as affected by the selloff.
Sold $SOXL Dec 85 put for 5.40.
Sold that for 1.60 more than I sold the Dec 90 put on Monday.
VIX long puts
#VXXGame Not something I’ve done before,
Bought to open $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts for 1.30. A bet we’ll be back below 12 by the end of the month. I’ll add more if I can get the price down closer to 1.00.
Dump!
Big day. Time to turn on CNBC and watch them all freak out. The British host seems so calm, though.
UVXY adding
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 85 call for 14.15. Highest available strike.
SPX-it
#SPXcampaign Stopped out, $SPX Oct 19th 2790/2765 put spreads for 6.05. Sold this morning for 3.25.
Basically I just lost the same amount that my call spread is winning me.
Will look for better entries at a better time. Now is not it!
Doubling Down
#PreEarnings Well, you gotta pick a bottom sometimes… actually, you don’t really, but I did. Doubling down on my two lowest priced long options trades. These report Oct 23 & 24, respectively.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .29. Avg cost now .827 on a double sized position.
Bought $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .44. Avg cost .477 on a double size.
Adding to TQQQ
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 12.60, adding to my first one I bought for 17.60 last Thursday.
XLF flat
Financials are flat on a 1% down day.
Pre-Earnings long call update
#PreEarnings Bought my last batch of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.05. Avg price on full position, 1.20.
The remainder are all under water. Holding up best are $GPC And $VALE. $CAT and $MSFT hobbled.
$JPM not too bad… since I sold half, the position has only a small max loss… I may keep this second half past Friday morning earnings in case we get a gap open.
VXX Game
#VXXgame I was early on this but sold $UVXY March 75 call for 7.25, adding to my position.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2790/2765 put spreads for 3.25. Offsets the call spread I sold Monday.
REGN holding up
Everything I dumped on Friday is lower now, except $REGN. The only one holding up.
New lows
$SPX just exceeded Monday’s low, but VIX is a full point lower than Monday’s high.
Adding to VFC
#PreEarnings Bought phase 2 of $VFC Oct 26th 95 calls for 1.40. Started yesterday at 1.00.
GPC long calls
#PreEarnings Bought to open $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for 1.75. Starter position.
VALE pre-earnings
#PreEarnings Bought to Open $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .50, following @kathycon. Thanks!
Killing me SOFTly
#PreEarnings All of my long pre-earnings trades are sinking, but it gives me the chance to add my final leg to $MSFT:
BTO $MSFT Oct 26th 116 calls for .88. Avg price of full position: 1.17.
MSFT has not confirmed earnings date, but the expectation is Oct 25th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th (Friday PM) 2935/2960 call spreads for 2.90. For a move further down in the next few days, or at least weakness that I can close by end of this week. I’ll look to see a put side on any deep dip.
BOILing over
#ContangoETFs At the bell, filled on my next $BOIL Jan 45 call for 3.00. Put in my next for 3.75
UVXY
#VXXGame new higher strikes added in most expiries.
Econ Calendar for week of 10/8/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
Downside Warning
#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).
This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.
MU expires
#LongCalls My shot at a long trade didn’t pan out. This is why I never used to buy options; too hard to determine when to close. Could have taken only a small loss had I sold at the right times Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday! How many times does the market have to tell me before I’ll make the move?
Expired: $MU Oct 5th 45 long calls, bought for 2.02 on Sep 14th.
PVTL covered calls
#CoveredCalls Sold to Open $PVTL Oct 19th 20 calls for .45.
Adding to MSFT
#PreEarnings Bought to open $MSFT Oct 26th 116 call for 1.15, adding to the position started yesterday.
Options Bistro 