#PreEarnings Bought to Open $TGT Nov 23rd 89 calls for 1.62.
Got then from Mama’s chart… .40 delta, (close to) 14 days out from Nov 20th earnings date. 1st batch of up to three. Initial target: 2.70. Thanks @kathycon!
Author Archives: Jeff
AMZN call spread
#LongCallSpread Bought to Open $AMZN Nov 23rd 1800/1810 call spreads for 2.69. Purely speculative, and aggressive with the short time period.
Z assigned
#Earnings #Assignment Assigned at 34.00 on only one of my 13 puts on $Z. Cost basis 32.55. The rest will be assigned tonight unless I get an exit today. No big worry with a low stock price.
SQ trade
#Earnings Since we have two days for this to drift around, I’m shooting for the center, hoping that any gap will be closed by Friday.
Sold to open $SQ Nov 9th 77.5/82.5/87.5 #IronButterfly for 4.00. Max risk 1.00.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2875/2900 call spreads for 4.25. This offsets the 2700/2675 put spread sold on Monday.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 7th 2810 calls for 1.70.
Taking a small loss on the 1-day condor, sold yesterday for 1.30. My rule is to stop or roll if we get within 10-points of the short strike. I’m not going to roll because loss is small.
I’ll do this again tomorrow for Friday’s expiration.
TQQQ covered calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold to Open $TQQQ Nov 16th 59 calls for 1.25.
TWLO closed for now
#Earnings This doesn’t appear that it will stop. Of course, once one decides that, that’s where it will stop.
But I’m looking for this to go higher. I looked at the lifetime chart, and every gap up is NOT filled… stock continues higher and never revisits the opening low on post-earnings day. This, however, is a gigantic move. I’m going to look to sell some OTM puts, and then wait for higher prices to try to sell calls or strangles.
BTC $TWLO Nov 9th 85 calls for 10.55. Strangles sold yesterday for 1.96.
TWLO & Z… in the vice
#Earnings… Should have closed both of these right at the open. Getting killed on both ends.
Short the $Z 34/47 strangles
Short the $TWLO 60/85 strangles
$Z will be manageable at such a low stock price. $TWLO is unpredictable because it could run for a very long time without stopping. Watching for now. Will roll as necessary.
PYPL calls sold
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 16th 88 calls for 1.15.
TSLA closed
#ShortStrangles #EarningsTradeRepair
BTC $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 1.50. Sold last Friday for 6.37.
Almost got my money back from the August madness. Will sell another on Friday.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO 8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC 5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC 1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC 15.83% Biggest UP
Oct. 15, 2015 AC -1.16%
Avg (+ or -) 6.15%
Bias 0.54%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 112.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.05 to 120.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 118.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 94.27 to 129.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 11 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC 1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC 3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC 8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC 14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
March 9, 2016 AC -6.06%
Avg + or – 7.60%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 71.15 to 86.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.00 to 85.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.7%): 61.87 to 96.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2630/2650/2810/2830 condors for 1.30. Expires tomorrow.
Excellent premium available at a .05-.06 delta on the short strikes. Won’t be this easy after volatility drops.
Adding to TQQQ
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 calls for 8.15. Adding to my position. Avg cost (not including #SyntheticCoveredCalls) now 10.12. Hard to believe I paid 17.60 for the first one.
Also, BTC $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for .35. Sold for 1.30 last Wednesday.
Now that I have a full position the call selling will continue to bring down cost basis. I won’t necessarily be holding this very long… I may close it if we reach new highs at the end of this year. I’m not so optimistic about the bull market lasting through 2019.
TWLO earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TWLO Nov 9th 60/85 strangles for 1.96. I am -16.7% and +18.1% OTM.
TWLO earnings analysis
#Earnings $TWLO reports tonight. I missed this one on my side chart, so including analysis here. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 6, 2018 AC 18.69%
May 8, 2018 AC 18.17%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 16.18%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC -6.82%
Aug. 7, 2017 AC 9.99%
May 2, 2017 AC -26.31%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 1.55%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.15%
Avg + or – 12.61%
Bias 3.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 72.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 61.53 to 82.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.92 to 81.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.3%): 53.06 to 90.94
Open for requests on other symbols.
Z earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $Z Nov 9th 34/47 strangles for 1.45.
$Z reports Wednesday morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC 2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC 9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC 12.05% Biggest UP
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -0.89%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC -6.27%
Avg + or – 6.38%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.60 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 34.57 to 46.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.01 to 43.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 34.60 to 46.60
Expected move is same as MAX moves. Trade carefully..
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign An aggressive bullish trade… purely speculative, that rally will continue or kick in higher gear after the election.
Sold $SPX Nov 30th 2700/2675 put spreads for 7.00.
Another BOIL
#ContangoETFs Sold $BOIL March 50 call for 4.15
Adding VIX long puts
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Dec 18th $VIX 16 puts for .80.
I tried this for Oct 30th with a full loss. Holding a batch for Nov 16th, underwater, needs a huge post-election rally.
These December contracts have a better shot.
Midterm bulls
$SPX down 5% in the past month; it either rallies >5% the next 2 months, or it’s only the 2nd time returns have been negative in the past 84 yrs (from DB) pic.twitter.com/0EO5fWnwv3
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) November 5, 2018
SPX 1-dte, removing risk
#SPXcampaign Guarding against a sharp drop. I don’t think it will happen, but removing the risk makes the day calmer.
BTC $SPX Nov 5th 2645 puts for .15. I’ll let the other three legs expire.
The 2625/2645/2765/2785 condors sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BOIL lancing higher
#ContangoETFs $BOIL gapped up to a 10-month high.
Sold BOIL Dec 21st 45 call for 3.40, filled on a long-standing GTC order, adding to my position.
BKNG earnings analysis (formerly PCLN)
#Earnings $BKNG reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -5.01%
May 9, 2018 AC -4.74%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 6.77%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -13.51% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -6.93%
May 9, 2017 AC -4.51%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC 5.64%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC 6.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC 3.98%
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Avg + or – 7.17%
Bias -1.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +15.6%.
With stock at 1880.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1750.90 to 2009.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1745.28 to 2014.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 1626.01 to 2133.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO 2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO 6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO 1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO 4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 4, 2015 BO -2.42%
Avg + or – 3.50%
Bias +0.60%, no significant bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +9.5%.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 329.66 to 378.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 366.38 to 341.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 329.26 to 378.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-DTE
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 5th 2625/2645/2765/2785 Iron Condors for 1.20. Expire Monday.
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Biggest move in years means #DoubleCalendar is no good…
Sold to close $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 double calendars closed for .07. Bought yesterday for .48.
I closed the calls, but the left the short put to expire and the long put as a lottery ticket next week.
Poll results
35% higher
47% lower
18% sideways
Since the poll SPX is up 5-8 points
Econ Calendar for week of 11/5/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
Higher or lower into the close?
SPX 1 DTE closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 2nd 2665/2445 put spread for .40. This was trading at about 1.40 a few minutes ago. Not taking the chance of another 100-point down day, and .65 profit is fine for 1 day.
Sold the condor yesterday for 1.05. I’ll let the 2780/2800 call side expire.
Selling another one of these for Monday expiry at end of today.
TSLA weekly strangle
#ShortStrangle Sold to open $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 6.37
SBUX explodes
#Earnings Today’s up move is its biggest since April 2009… even the intraday high is biggest since that date.
Guess I picked the wrong day to trade it neutrally.
ANET closed
#Earnings BTC $ANET Nov 2nd 270 calls for .20. The 202.5/270 strangles sold yesterday for 2.025. I’ll let the puts expire.
AAPL closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.60. The 232.5 calls were sold for 1.12 (avg price) and I’ll let them expire.
EOG closed
#Earnings Sold to close $EOG Nov2/Nov9 106 #DoubleCalendar for 2.80. Bought yesterday for 1.90.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
October Jobs Report
#Jobs Higher than expected.
+250,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.4%, down by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, or 5 cents, 3.1% year over year, highest increase April 2009
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.2
September revised downward from 134k to 118k
August increased 270k to 286k
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 #DoubleCalendar for .48.
Trying for an $EOG 106 calendar for 1.90 but may bail if I don’t get filled.
SPX 1 DTE
#SPXcampaign trying something new to me, but I know is a common strategy for others.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 2645/2665/2780/2800 iron condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow. Will roll into a longer term condor if SPX gets within 10 pts of either short.
IV has gone up in last 20 minutes so you can get this for more, or move out a strike.
AAPL calls
#Earnings I’m legging into $AAPL short Nov 2nd 232.5 calls, against the 205 puts I sold this morning. Filled on 1 so far at 1.02. Next fill is for 1.10.
TSLA calls closed
BTC $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 3.01. Sold for 6.50 last Friday. Will look to do another one tomorrow.
ANET earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANET Nov 2nd 202.5/270 strangles for 2.05.
$ANET reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC 3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC 18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
May 5, 2016 AC 5.11%
Feb. 18, 2016 AC 11.77%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 13.71%
Avg + or – 9.82%
Bias 4.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 215.96 to 258.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.17 to 260.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 191.35 to 283.65
Open for requests on other symbols.
W closed
#Earnings BTC $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for .24. Sold strangles yesterday for 1.82.
Trade candidates
I’m looking at Strangles on $ANET, $BABA, and $OLED.
Considering double calendars on $EOG, $CVX, and $SBUX.
What else you looking at?
CI trade closed
#Earnings Bought to close $CI 200/222.5 strangles for .25. Sold yesterday for 1.97.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO 3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO 2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO 0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO 5.08% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 BO 3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Oct. 27, 2015 BO 4.04%
Avg + or – 3.25%
Bias 0.57%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 134.69 to 151.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.36 to 147.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 134.56 to 151.44
Expected move is same as Maximum move, which is rare.
Open for requests on other symbols.
AAPL trade
#Earnings Sold $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for 1.60. Will sell calls if we can rally. I sold early, thinking this morning weakness will be bought. Hopefully the whole day doesn’t turn ugly!
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC 5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC 4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC 6.49% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -6.57% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2015 AC 4.12%
Avg + or – 4.50%
Bias 1.22%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 206.86 to 229.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 208.19 to 227.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.6%): 203.68 to 232.15
Open for requests on other symbols.
PVTL covered calls
#Earnings Got assigned this stock with cost basis of 20.35.
Sold $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .70
TEVA earnings analysis
#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:
$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%
Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
Indices all up
RUT lagging at 1%
Dow 1.75%
SPX 2%
NDX leading at over 3%
VIX down 11%, approaching 20.
Covered Calls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $PYPL Nov 9th 85.5 calls for 1.15
Sold $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for 1.30
CI earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.
$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%
Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84
Open for requests on other symbols.
W (Wayfair) earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.
$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%
Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
Gushin’
#ContangoETFs Another ETF working as expected, drifting ever lower. I foolishly should a strangle weeks ago to roll out of a pressed call. So now it has been breached.
BTC $GUSH Dec 21 puts for 3.45. Sold in a strangle for 3.87 on Aug 15th.
Sold $GUSH Jan 2019 25 call for 3.50. Will sell another.
Also: BTC $GUSH March 55 call for .40. Sold for 4.20 on Sept 25th
FB and ANTM closed
#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.
STMP earnings analysis
#Earnings I’ve confirmed from their website that earnings will be after the close today, even though some sources have not confirmed themselves.
Below are details on $STMP earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC 3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC 11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 35.88%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.23%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 21.04%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 38.10% Biggest UP
Avg + or – 13.43%
Bias 7.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 205.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.12 to 231.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 177.91 to 233.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (38.1%): 127.20 to 283.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX call spreads
I’m out of the two short call spreads with losses. Holding off on replacing until we get indication of next direction, higher or back to lows.
BIDU closed
#Earnings
BTC $BIDU 150/155/205/210 condors for .10. Sold yesterday for .70. (Filled right at the bell)
BTC $BIDU Nov 2nd 155/205 strangles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80. (filled six minutes later)
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Man, my exits have been sucking lately. Was too greedy when the SPX was flat today, so missed a fill then and caught in the updraft. I really have to work on this. It got up to at least 3.00 in profit, before it slipped away and became a 3.00 loss.
BTC $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 10.85.
Selling a higher spread now or in the morning. I’m not turning bullish unless VIX drops more or we get several up days in a row.
FB dbl cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
BIDU earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.
Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.
Another short
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 8.00. This is on a short leash and probably close out at end of today. 1 DTE and not far OTM.
ANTM earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.
$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%
Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24
Open for requests on other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%
Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
FEYE earnings analysis
by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%
Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67
Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.
Open for requests on other symbols.
Futures sinking
Tech leading the way, AMZN below 1500. It’s lost a fourth of its value from the highs.
TQQQ calls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ Nov 2 58 calls for .12. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Looks like I’ll be adding to my #LongLEAPs this week.
PYPL and SOXL
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for .11. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 19th.
#ContagoETFs BTC $SOXL Dec 85 put for 9.00.
#Rolling Sold $SOXL May 65 put for 9.25
Failing again
#SPXcampaign I was looking for a higher move before we topped, so I didn’t get these trades off in time. I managed to close one of my SPX spreads for 3.20, just above break-even, which gave me the heads up to start looking for a full exit. But that turned out to be the top so far. Maybe we’ll bounce at flat, and then I’ll be sad about these trades. But overall, I’m looking for a test of Feb lows before we get out of this mess.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2725/2750 call spreads for 5.55.
Sold to close $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for .90. Bought for 3.10 on Friday.
Still holding a way OTM long put spread expiring the 9th. Will hold it for a deep plunge.
CTSH calendar?
CMI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMI reports in the morning before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 BO 4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64%
May 2, 2017 BO 6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO 1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 7.62% Biggest UP
Oct. 27, 2015 BO -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 4.19%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 125.81 to 141.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.91 to 139.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 121.90 to 145.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
TSLA strangle
#ShortStrangles Now that this one is volatile again, premium is jacked.
Sold to Open $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 6.50.
