#Market #SPXcampaign If Hillary wins tonight, there is the chance of a very large explosion of a rally tomorrow. I am thus rolling out of my Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spread. Been trying to get out since we went positive, but no breaks yet in the move up.
Author Archives: Jeff
DUST calls
#ContangoETFs
STO DUST Nov 11th 48 calls for 1.10
STO DUST Jan 20th 60 call for 4.50 (highest strike)
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2132.
JAZZ earnings
#Earnings STO $JAZZ Nov 11th 95 puts for .90. Working to sell 115 calls, too.
Biggest UP move: 5.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.4%, Average move: 2.9%. This trade is 9.5% OTM.
DISH earnings
#Earnings STO $DISH Nov 11th 53/59 strangles for 1.30. Biggest UP move: 6.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 2.6%. These strikes are both 5.3% OTM.
When a neighbor calls
#SPXcampaign While working my order to exit the 2120 calls with SPX in the 2125 area, my doorbell rang so I went and answered a question from my neighbor. About 3 minutes away from the computer caused about a $3K loss. Market took off and now I’m letting it exercise. I continue my streak of horrible exits from ATM/ITM spreads!
Exercised: Nov 7th 2120/2140 call spreads for 11.50. Sold Friday for 1.35.
Sold two put spreads expiring Wednesday as a partial roll:
STO Nov 9th 2100/2075 put spreads for 4.50
STO Nov 9th 2025/2000 put spreads for 1.30.
Also, expiring today:
Nov 7th 2065/2040 put spreads, sold Friday for 1.45.
Glad I waited before rolling…
Glad I waited before rolling my 2120/2140 spread. Maybe I’ll even get out for free…
Did Charles Evans (Fed) say…
Did Charles Evans (Fed) say something scary?
DUST calls sold
#contangoetfs STO DUST Nov 18th 50 calls for 1.55
STO DUST Dec 9th 60 call for 1.90 (thanks, @Ramie77)
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign #PlayingWithFire
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 2165/2180 call spreads for 1.75. Already short a 2150 for that day, and a 2120 today. Thought I could sneak out of today’s expiration but looks like I will need to roll.
PCLN earnings
#Earnings Over last 3 years, Biggest 5-day UP move: 15.6%, Biggest 5-day DOWN move: -8.7%, Average 5-day move: 6.4%.
I’m looking to sell Nov 11th 1275 puts for 3.50-4.00. This strike is about 12% OTM, so far above the average move, decently above the largest down move. TOS has expected move at +/- 6.1%.
Due to larger historical moves up, I’ll skip the call side or consider farther OTM.
Econ Calendar week of 11/7/16
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Dow Futures up over 200…
Dow Futures up over 200 on FBI’s Sunday memo
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/06/500929164/comey-we-have-not-changed-our-conclusions-as-fbi-finishes-clinton-email-review
Options Expiration 11/4/16
#OptionsExpiration What a week!
–Expiring w/max profit–
$DUST 50 calls
$HLF 50 puts
$SPX 2065/2040 put spreads
–Expiring w/max loss–
$APA 57.5/60/62.5 iron butterfly
–Assignment–
$FB 122,123,124,125,126 puts – 100 short shares covered, 500 long shares assigned
On the line…
Very close to breaking the 36-year record on SPX (9 straight days DOWN), and 27-year record on the VIX (9 straight days UP)… first time EVER on the VIX.
FB trade mgt
#Earnings BTC $FB Nov 4th 130 calls for 9.00. This is the #IronButterfly sold for 6.20 on Wednesday. Taking a loss.
BTC FB Nov 4th 121 puts for .10, to avoid assignment. Sold for .80.
I will still be assigned stock from puts at 122 through 126, as well as having my final bit of short stock covered.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spreads for 2.15, with SPX at 2090. Creates a condor with the put spread I sold a few minutes ago. Three days to go and 160 points between shorts.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th (Wednesday) 1990/1965 put spreads for 1.90.
Even if the worst possible election outcome happens, will the market tank to 1990 on Wednesday?
Dead cat bounce
Nine days in a row down on SPX hasn’t happened in 36 years. Oversold; needed a bounce. This is why I sold call spreads earlier. Premium is still jacked up so you can get decent spreads for Monday expiration and even higher for Wednesday. Working on put spreads on intraday pullbacks. I believe a lot of money can be made in the next three days by selling volatility. But I’m being careful with expirations beyond Nov 9th.
SPX 1-day put spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th (Monday) 2065/2040 put spreads for 1.45. Offsetting Nov 7th call spread I sold earlier.
Closing GILD earnings
#Earnings Looks like GILD may be dropping again, so starting to close the earnings trade.
BTC $GILD Nov 4th 73.5 put for .95. Sold as part of the 68.5/73.5/78.5 iron butterfly for 3.05 on Tuesday. Watching for another bounce to get rid of my other one.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Oct 20th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign I am selling some short-term call spreads today in the belief that the market remains weak, and even if we do recover these spreads are far enough OTM for their expiration dates.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2120/2140 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2096.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2097.
SKEW highs
#Market The Skew hit 141 yesterday, the highest since July 1st. It is typically a bearish sign when SKEW exceeds 135. However, it isn’t a very solid indicator. The July high was the highest since the indicator started, but it occurred AFTER the Brexit dip and before we hit new all-time highs.
The VIX is a better indicator, and it is up for the 9th straight day, even with SPX wavering around flat.
JOBS REPORT
October added 161,000 jobs.
August & September revised upward
Unemployment rate down to 4.9%
U6 rate down to 9.5%, lowest since 2008.
Wages up 0.4%
Labor force participation 62.8%
Pretty good news… will the Fed raise in December? Will it affect markets today up or down?
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart are updated
Sorry for the long delay in updating the chart, but I fell behind. And excuse any mistakes that are in there… questions are welcome!
SPX rolls
#SPXcampaign Well, that was adventurous. Managed it 75% well, 25% terribly. Stopped out on the ATM spread with a horrible price, but did well with the rest.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2090/2065 put spreads for 8.10. Sold for 1.90 on Oct 25th.
Partially rolled to Nov 4th 2065/2040 put spreads, double-sized, for 1.475 (avg price)
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 1980/1955 put spreads for 3.25
Rolled to Dec 9th 1850/1875/2225/2250 iron condors for 2.15, 1.5x position size
Closed Nov 4th 2090/2065 for 8.10
Rolling some into Nov 4th 2065/2040, double position
FB short stock
#Earnings #ShortStock Covered another batch for 119.50. One batch left which I’m leaving for tomorrow.
CMG
All this market pain and CMG is flying high… only got one of two rolls in before this pop!
New VIX signal
#VIXIndicator just surpassed 100% above the Aug 9th low, which is the 5th signal in this correction.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 1895/1870 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2090. I am looking to stop and roll two spreads by the end of today. I believe chances for a bounce are good with the Job numbers tomorrow, but can’t risk it with borderline spreads.
UVXY calls
#VXXGame STO UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for 1.56
STO UVXY March 17th 60 call for 2.75
I don’t play the Game as much as I used to, but certainly like to dabble when things get frothy.
REGN earnings
#Earnings Slightly different approach here. REGN’s 1-day moves on earnings: Biggest UP move: 7.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 3.8%. But tomorrow’s expiring options only go down to 327.5. Looking at its 8-day moves: Biggest UP move: 9.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.5%, Average move: 2.8%.
The average is actually LOWER over time, as any big moves after earnings are usually corrected in the following week. The UP move is bigger, but that 9.5 move in Feb 2014 is an outlier… its next biggest 8-day move up is 3.9%.
So I went out a week for a strangle:
STO $REGN Nov 11th 310/372.5 strangle for 6.40. Strikes are -9.5% and 8.8% OTM respectively.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2200/2225 call spreads for 1.30. This is the second call spread for my Dec 2nd lot. I used Wednesday options because the Friday expiration was already crowded with three spreads due to a roll last week.
BABA earnings closed
#Earnings BTC BABA Nov 4th 93 puts for .04. Sold as part of the 90/93/108/111 condor for .55 on Tuesday. Might as well get out cheap with BABA acting this poorly.
FB partial stock closed
#Earnings #ShortStock BTC $FB short stock for 121.40. Wish I’d watched overnight since it got as low as 116. I have short puts from 120-126, but willing to take long stock if my short position is covered.
APA IB
#Earnings STO $APA Nov 4th 57.5/60/62.5 #IronButterfly for 1.60. Max risk .90. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 8.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.4%, Average move: 2.0%. Breakevens are 2.7% OTM.
NUGT follow
#ContangoETFs Earlier, followed @ramie77 and STO NUGT Jan 20th 30 call for 1.10
FB additional
#Earnings Added another $FB Nov 4th 120/130/140 IB for 6.20.
Also a risk/reversal:
STO FB Dec 16th 115 puts for 1.64
BTO FB Nov 4th 131 calls for 1.63
FB trades
#Earnings #ShortStock #CoveredPuts #ironbutterfly
I am still short some stock so I’ve sold several puts today and over the past week… Nov 4th, every strike from 120 to 126.
I also STO FB 120/130/140 iron butterfly for 6.15, at @thomberg1201‘s suggestion.
AVGO position closed
#Earnings Sold to close $AVGO stock for 173.59. Nice move up this morning. This started as an earnings trade that went against me. Trade was started on Sept 2nd, and by hanging with it I am getting out for breakeven before their next report.
FB earnings
#Earnings Here are the last three years of results. It has been strong and I would lean bullish. If there’s a drop on earning I would say that’s an opportunity. I will be selling puts.
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%
July 29, 2015 AC -1.83%
April 22, 2015 AC -2.62%
Jan. 28, 2015 AC 2.30%
Oct. 28, 2014 AC -6.07%
July 23, 2014 AC 5.17%
April 23, 2014 AC -0.79%
Jan. 29, 2014 AC 14.10%
Oct. 30, 2013 AC 2.42%
SPX call-roll closed
#SPXcampaign After the bell, bought to close $SPX Nov 11th 2225/2250 call spreads for .10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll on Friday for 2.10. The 1925/1900 put half is still going.
CMG roll
SVXY calls closed
#VXXGame Earlier, BTC SVXY Nov 18th 85 calls for .40. Sold for 2.10 on Sept 21st.
BTC SVXY Dec 16th 95 calls for .50. Sold for 3.45 on Aug 9th.
SPX next-day spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 2nd 2075/2050 put spreads for .25. Sold for 1.50 two hours ago.
SPX stop and reverse roll
#SPXcampaign With significant weakness in the market I am getting some put spreads out of the way before they have a chance to get ugly.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 11th 2000/1975 put spreads for 2.75, sold for 1.30 on Oct 11th.
#ReverseRoll: Sold to Open Nov 17th 2185/2210 call spreads for 2.10, with 1.5x position size.
CMG rolling
Fourth VIX signal
#VIXIndicator We just hit a 25% increase over the 2-day closing low, which is a fourth signal in this correction.
Econ calendar for week of 10/31/16
SPX next-day puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Nov 2nd 2075/2050 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2104. Expires tomorrow (hopefully).
New VIX high
Today the VIX topped its Oct 13th high of 17.95. A third signal fired Friday but no new signal today (yet), indicating a fairly orderly, 6-day move up.
GILD iron butterfly
#Earnings Sold to Open $GILD Nov 4th 68.5/73.5/78.5 iron butterfly for 3.05. Max risk $195. Breakevens approx +/-4%. Kept this to a 2-lot so I can’t lose over $400. Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 4.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.1%, Average move: 4.4%.
FB puts sold
#Earnings #ShortStock Continuing my acquisition of short puts for earnings.
STO FB Nov 4th 123 put for 1.07
STO FB Nov 4th 120 put for .55
TAP earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $TAP Nov 4th 100 puts for .15. Sold yesterday for .85.
HLF, BABA earnings trades
#Earnings I put these orders in this morning and they filled while I was out:
STO $HLF Nov 4th 50 puts for .50. Biggest UP move: 20.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -20.8%, Average move: 9.9%. This trade is 15.3% OTM (with stock at 59.00).
STO $BABA Nov 4th 90/93/108/111 iron condor for .55. Biggest UP move: 7.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -8.8% , Average move: 5.3% . These strikes are both 7.5% OTM, with stock at 100.50.
Also trying to sell $EA 71 puts (neutral/bullish) and AGN 210/215 call spread (bearish 1:1 trade).
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 1945/1920 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2123.
VIX rising
#Market Second day in row with an UP open on SPX with the VIX also opening higher. We’ve had five straight days of a rising VIX, back near its highs from Oct 13th.
DUST call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC DUST Nov 18th 70 call for .30. Sold for 3.50 on Oct 11th.
TAP earnings
#Earnings Classic earnings trade: STO $TAP Nov 5th 100 puts for .80.
Over last 3 years, Biggest 5-day UP move: 6.8%, Biggest 5-day DOWN move: -4.6%, Average move: 2.8%. This trade is -4.5% OTM.
To find a bigger than 5% move at any point within 5 days after earnings, you have to go back to May 2011. THIS IS A NAKED TRADE. Use a spread if you’re not comfortable with the risk.
NFLX puts
#Earnings Selling to offset short calls:
STO NFLX Nov 11th 122 put for 1.50
STO NFLX Dec 16th 115 put for 2.10
SPX calls closed, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 11th 2220/2245 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Oct 14th.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 2220/2245 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2130.
Options Expiration 10/28/16
–Expiring–
AMZN 930 call
AVGO 177.5 covered calls
DUST 50 calls
FB 127 covered put
NFLX 130 calls
NFLX 120 and 123 puts
AAPL & BIDU final closures
#Earnings BTC $BIDU Oct 28th 175 call for 5.30.
BTC $AAPL Oct 28th 118 put for 4.40.
Good week for IB’s. Big win on $V, and small wins on the two above.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll Sold to Open Dec 2nd 1900/1925/2225/2250 iron condors for 2.10. Rolled from Nov 25th spread stopped earlier, using 1.5x position size.
BIDU earnings, partial close
#Earnings $BIDU took exactly zero heat from the market dip (I guess they don’t care about Hillary’s emails in China), and now is starting to curve up. Closed one of my two trades for 6.25. Sold for 7.40 yesterday, so $115 profit on that one. Will wait to see where it goes for my other one.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2126.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2025/2000 put spreads for 2.85. Sold for 1.55 on Tuesday. Looking to roll into an iron condor, Dec 2 expiration.
SPX same-day puts closed with loss
#SPXcampaign STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2120/21000 put spreads for 2.85. Sold a few minutes ago for 1.35. Can’t bat a thousand on ’em all! Ugly looking, and with the spread ATM, this price can move against me super fast. Will consider rolls next week. For now, looking to take a stop on a Nov 25th spread.
VIX Indicator signal fired
#VIXIndicator A third signal fired today. After the Warning fired (Oct 13th), additional warnings mean continued volatility but can also signal a market bottom. So it is best to remain on guard after the Warning until it is canceled.
AAPL iron butterfly
#Earnings Today we have to close the 118 put. Closed one Wednesday for 2.75. Just closed one now for 3.95. Since spread was sold for 4.14, I will put a stop on the last one at 4.50, which will preserve a small profit and avoid a loss.
SPX same-day puts
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2120/2100 put spreads for 1.35. Expiring in 2.5 hours.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2185/2210 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.25 on Oct 19th. I’ve been trying to sell a call spread, but instead one closed.
Options Bistro 