#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.50. Should expire next Friday.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX more puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2190 puts for 2.15. Sold as part of the 2190/2165 put spread for 2.55 on Tuesday. Another one down with a small profit.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Closing this one with a small profit, which was sold as an aggressive roll. May roll later today, or wait until next week.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 call spreads for 7.70. Sold for 8.25 on Nov 21st.
SPX calls closed and calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold two days ago for 1.75.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2265/2290 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2195.
Jobs Report
178,000 jobs added in November
Unemployment 4.6%, lowest since August 2007
Labor participation down a bit to 62.7%
UE6 rate 9.3%, lowest since 2008
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Don’t forget, Jobs Report is an hour before the open, 8:30am ET.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2060/2035 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2187.
SPX extra puts sold
#SPXcampaign Since I sold Dec 7th calls this morning, just sold some puts to offset them:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 2175/2150 puts for 2.70, with SPX at 2205.
I’m now trading in a pretty tight range, 2190 to 2230, through Friday the 9th. I’m hoping strong moves in either direction wait until after that! But, #Jobs report is this Friday…
TIF closed
#Earnings BTC $TIF Dec 2nd 73 puts for .01. Sold with 73/85 strangle for 1.14 on Monday. Total trade closed for .11
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for 1.75. These should expire next Wednesday. Completion of my rolls from stopped call spread yesterday.
New all time highs on SPX this morning.
SPX rolling out calls
#SPXcampaign I was hoping for another day of weakness to get out of an ATM call spread, but the push back to 2210 signals tomorrow could go either way. So I’ve closed it and am now selling several short-term spreads as rolls. All spreads are same position size, so I want the new ones to add up to at least the 7.55 I spent for the stop.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 3oth 2200/2225 for 7.55. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 3rd.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 2190/2165 put spreads for 2.55
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.55
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 5th 2175/2150 call spreads for 2.15
Need one more spread for 1.30 or more.
SPX puts closed, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.50 on Nov 21st.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2280/2305 call spreads for 1.30, when SPX was at 2206.
TIF calls closed
#Earnings Bought to close $TIF Dec 2nd 85 calls for .10. Sold yesterday as part of the 73/85 strangles for 1.14. Order in to close the puts for .01.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2080/2055 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2206.
RGLD covered calls
#Earnings #StockTrades #CoveredCalls
STO $RGLD Dec 16th 75 call for .90
STO $RGLD Jan 20th 77.5 call for 1.65
TIF earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Sold to Open $TIF Dec 2nd 73/85 strangles for 1.14. Over last 3 years, 5-days after earnings: Biggest UP move: 10.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.1%, Average move: 4.8%. The put is -6.4% OTM, and the call is 9.0% OTM.
CMG roll
#Earnings #ShortStrangles #Rolling
Rolling up CMG short put. Also short the Dec 16th 420 call
BTC CMG Dec 16th 350 put for .80. Sold for 10.80 on Nov 1st.
STO CMG Dec 23rd 380 put for 5.00.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign This is from last week’s campaign but I couldn’t get it filled on Friday:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2095/2070 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2207.
REGN puts sold
#Earnings #InverseStrangle #ShortPuts
Currently short the Dec 2nd 375 call and Dec 9th 415 put (inverse strangle). Selling some puts on the spike down this morning:
STO REGN Dec 2nd 380 put for 2.40
STO REGN Dec 9th 380 put for 5.00
Econ Calendar for week of 11/28/16
Options Expiration 11/25/16
#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #Earnings #ShortPuts #IronButterfly #ContangoETFs
— Expired —
DUST 35 puts
REGN 390 put
SPX 2150/2125 put spreads (sold for 2.70 on Nov 15th)
SPX 2175/2150 put spread (sold for 14.00 on Oct 13th)
— Expired with max loss —
DE 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly
REGN fat-fingered roll
#Earnings #ShortPuts #Rolling Was trying to make this roll with a $1 credit but turkey-induced droopiness led to the reverse, a 1.10 loss. Oh well… not much in the scheme of inverse strangles…
BTC REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 22.00
STO REGN Dec 9th 415 put for 20.90
SPX calls closed, both short and long
#SPXcampaign We are up only .25% on the day, and pushing higher. I don’t want my short 2210’s to fly up in price. So…
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2210 calls for .85. Sold as the 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.50 on Oct 28th.
To offset the loss, I am closing my long Dec 5th call spread I bought for 1.90 on Monday. Closed some for 2.95, watching the rest for the next push up. I would keep this longer, but since it expires a week from Monday and is still fairly far OTM, I’m exiting now as a pullback could be coming next week.
Sold to close $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 LONG call spreads for 2.95.
I remain bullish into Xmas, but believe a pullback could be in the cards before another push higher. After Xmas, I will be on guard for January volatility, since we have seen that happen in the last THREE Januarys (2014,2015,2016).
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2275/2300 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2209.
Preemptive SPX roll
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll #Rolling Since I believe risk is still to upside, I am rolling this one early. My stop on this was 2205 (20 points OTM); we came close yesterday and I believe we will break that level later today or Friday.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 for 4.60. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.15 on Nov 3rd.
#CondorRoll: Sold to Open Dec 15th 2100/2125/2245/2270 condors for 5.10 (same position size).
DE in headlights
#Earnings Record highs for DE… and a dud for the ATM #IronButterfly. I don’t see a pullback t0 93 in the cards by Friday.
Dow 19,000… first time ever!
Use Hashtags!
I am ceasing the categorization of everyone’s posts and encouraging the use of hashtags. For the last year I have been going into my Admin screen to categorize everyone’s posts by strategy, such as #SPXcampaign or #VXXGame. But that’s simply too exhaustive now that more Contributors are signing up.
So, to help us in our search efforts and help newbies review trades under different categories, please try to use Hashtags in your posts. For Contributors, you will see common examples of hashtags in the window where you write your new post. In the right-hand column of the site, all members can see the “Most Used Hashtags” window for reference as well. Everyone can also use hashtags in the comments underneath posts.
So before posting, #Hashtag-It!
DE earnings IB
#Earnings #IronButterfly Sold to Open $DE Nov 25th 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly for 1.97. Max risk .53.
I don’t see a decent trade in GME, so unless anyone’s got a good idea I’ll be skipping it.
DUST roll
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Nov 25th 70 call for .05. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 11th
STO DUST Dec 9th 60 call for 3.50.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2220/2245 call spreads for 3.50.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2150/2125 put spreads for 2.65, 1.5x position size.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2085/2060 for 1.40, with SPX at 2202. Not waiting for a pullback because I’m not expecting one this week.
Bistro VIX Indicator for Tuesday 11/22
AN UPSIDE WARNING FIRED ON MONDAY after the VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days. This means a very high likelihood of a continued rally in the days and weeks to come.
We also established a new high in the SPX, 2198.70, and have set a new post-correction low in the VIX, 12.16.
Tuesday’s levels that would reverse course and end the Upside Warning are 15.53 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 18.24 (50% above Nov 21 low). #VIXIndicator
PANW after hours stock
#Earnings $PANW has had an out-sized move down on earnings. Bought 100 shares at 140.85. Looking to unload with a move back above 150.
SPX, reverse rolling and going long
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2200/2220 call spreads for 3.20. Sold for 4.00 on Nov 9th.
Sold to open SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for 2.50, 1.5x position size (#ReverseRoll)
The above stopped spread expires Wednesday but we could be up to 2210 by then. Reverse rolled back into some puts, one week further out. Also, bought some LONG call spreads, targeting a double or triple:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.90.
UVXY closing calls
#VXXGame Good idea, @fuzzballl
BTC UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for .04. Sold for 1.56 on Nov 3rd
BTC UVXY March 60 call for .38. Sold for 2.75 on Nov 3rd
SPX, new all-time high
SPX, new all-time high
SPX ATM put spread sold
#SPXcampaign Since signs are bullish with likely Upside Warning, sold the following ATM put spread as a roll from a stopped call spread from last week:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 put spreads for 8.25, with SPX at 2190.
Econ Calendar week of 11/21/16
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2192.
Upside Warning likely today
#VIXIndicator If the VIX closes below 13.59 tonight, an Upside Warning is in effect. Here I am reposting some data I posted on July 14th.:
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
SPX Position Chart and VIX Indicator are updated
#SPXcampaign Long overdue on the chart update. I have rolled my way mostly out of the election week whipsaw and have been keeping barely ahead of the rally.
#VIXIndicator If we have another close below 13.59 on Monday, it will trigger an upside warning. If it happens, watch for new all-time highs as we surge higher.
Options Expiration 11/18/16
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #ContangoETFs #ShortStrangles #ShortPuts #ShortCalls #CoveredCalls #VXXGame
— Expiring —
BBY 38 and 38.5 puts
DUST 55 call
DUST 35 puts
LOW 65/72 strangles
RGLD 82.5 covered call
UVXY 45 call
— Assignment —
DUST 50 call, taking short stock (only because I forgot to roll)
REGN roll
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
BTC $REGN Nov 18th 400 put for 2.50
STO $REGN Nov 25th 390 put for 3.80
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Oct 26th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 15th 2065/2040 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2186.
DUST call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC DUST Nov 18th 60 call for .25. Sold for 3.50 on Oct 4th. Not risking another big jump tomorrow.
DUST calls
#ContangoETFs Replacing some DUST calls I had to stop out of on Monday. Highest strikes:
STO DUST Dec 16th 90 calls for 1.30 (thanks @Ramie77)
STO DUST Jan 20th 80 call for 5.00
NFLX calls closed
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2255/2280 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2182.
The fear trade…. time to roll?
Back on October 13th I suggested an in-the-money put spread that some of you followed (original post here: https://optionsbistro.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/overcoming-fear/).
The trade was the Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00, when SPX was at 2123. Since that day, SPX got to a low of 2083 and a high of 2184 (today). So it is not ITM at the moment. This makes the decision on whether to roll a bit tough. With the current bullish trend, it is likely to expire worthless. But if we breakdown and go below 2175 again, the value of the spread will shoot up quickly against you.
So today you have three options:
1. Close the trade and take a nice profit.
2. Roll the trade into the following week for even or slight credit. You will be able to move your strikes 10 points lower, to the Dec 2nd 2165/2140 spread. This is basically what we’d be doing if we were still ITM (although not as easily). You can also choose to roll it to a further week at lower strikes.
3. Stick with the trade for more upside and a cheaper exit next week, or expire worthless.
I will probably be taking option 3, but watching closely through tomorrow. If this breakout fails, I will probably be rolling it before the weekend.
Questions welcome, and let us know what you do with the trade! #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2085/2060 put spreads for .10. Sold for 3.55 on Election Day.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 9th.
BBY earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $BBY Nov 18th 38 puts for .84. Bullish trade. BBY was up 20% on last earnings; chart looks bullish. Last three years’ moves:
Aug. 23, 2016 BO 19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 2.44%
Nov. 19, 2015 BO -2.10%
Aug. 25, 2015 BO 12.57%
May 21, 2015 BO 3.93%
March 3, 2015 BO 1.42%
Nov. 20, 2014 BO 6.97%
Aug. 26, 2014 BO -6.84%
May 22, 2014 BO 3.43%
Feb. 27, 2014 BO -0.96%
Nov. 19, 2013 BO -10.97%
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 2100/2075 put spreads for 1.45. This is another roll for the Nov 17th call spreads I had to close yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2035/2010 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2175.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2180/2205 call spreads for 7.80. Sold for 9.50 on Nov 9th as a roll. Profit in this one, but because it was a roll I will need to roll it again. I will look to do so later today.
More puts closed…
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 1875/1850 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.10 on Nov 3rd.
Breakout?
#VIXIndicator #Market If we close today at current VIX levels the Downside Warning will be canceled and we could be on our way to new highs. We had a spike up like this last Thursday too, but then it failed… two hours left…
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 1925/1900 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.10 on Oct 28th.
REGN put
#Earnings #ShortStrangles STO $REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 5.00. Selling against my woefully ITM short call.
LOW trade
#Earnings STO $LOW Nov 18th 65/72 strangle for 1.03. Biggest UP move: 6.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.2%, Average move: 3.1%. These strikes are each 5.1% OTM.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2025/2000 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.05 on Election Day.
Time for tech to bounce?
Time for tech to bounce?
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 1945/1920 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 1st.
DUST puts
#ContangoETFs Followed @optioniceman‘s idea…
STO DUST Nov 18th 35 puts for .25
STO DUST Nov 25th 35 puts for .60
DAL stock sold
#Earnings Sold to Close $DAL stock for 47.00. Originally assigned at 47.00 back in April. The remnant of a larger earnings trade that sat like a lump in my account as DAL dipped as low as 32.60. In the end, the trade wound up with a $64 profit. Too long for too little!
DUST out of my control
#ContangoETFs Got too heavy in short calls on DUST, and now with the relentless plunge of Gold I cannot continue to roll at this time. I am closing a few ITM or ATM calls with losses this morning. I will have to work to build back the losses at a later date when my margin issues relax.
I’m getting hit simultaneously with positins in FB and NFLX being overdone to the downside, while my SPX spreads are being pressured to the upside. All manageable now, but until more time passes and/or tech starts its rebound, I’ll have to take my lumps on these naked DUST calls until I have the powder to re-enter.
NFLX roll
#Earnings #StrangleRoll After getting stretched to the upside, it is now the put side of tech trades in trouble. Clearly overdone move, in my view; and overreaction to Trump’s past comments about AMZN, FB, AAPL, etc.
BTC NFLX Dec 15th 115 put for 6.60 (sold for 2.10 avg, still have another)
STO NFLX March 90/135 strangle for 6.86
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2250/2275 call spreads for 2160, with SPX at 2168.
Options Expiration 11/11/16
–Expiring–
JAZZ 95/115 strangles
NFLX 135 call
PRGO 93 calls
REGN 310 and 410 puts
SPX 1925/1900 put spreads
SVXY 55/85 strangles
–Assigned–
NFLX 122 put, taking some stock
DIS earning closed with small loss
#Earnings BTC $DIS Nov 11th 95 calls for 2.75. Sold yesterday in the 92/95/98 IB for 2.02.
DUST calls closed
#ContangoETFs Started the day OTM but never looked back. I closed these rather than take the stock short. Will sell rolls next week.
BTC DUST Nov 11th 50 call for 6.40
BTC DUST Nov 11th 48 calls for 8.40
More DUST rolls
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
BTC DUST Nov 18th 55 call for 4.40
STO DUST Dec 16th 70 call for 5.00
Also followed @Ramie77 STO DUST Nov 25th 70 call for 1.40
DUST bowl roll
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
BTC $DUST Nov 18th 50 call for 5.00. Sold for 1.55 on Monday.
STO $DUST Dec 16th 63 call for 5.25
Gold tanking, DUST flying.
Gold tanking, DUST flying.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2025/2000 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2161.
