#ShortPuts #StrangleRoll #ShortStrangles
BTC REGN Dec 9th 380 put for 6.55. Sold for 5.00 on Nov 28th
STO REGN Dec 23rd 347.5/400 strangle for 6.55
Author Archives: Jeff
POLL test
Test of POLLS
Earnings results
#Earnings #ShortStrangles #ShortPuts AVGO flies high as usual, but RH takes a bigger than normal dump. My 32 puts are on the edge. Will decide later if I have to roll or take assignment.
My backyard — the Portland blizzard has begun…
RH earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Sold to Open $RH Dec 9th 32/45 strangles for .90. Biggest UP move: 12.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -21.2%, Average move: 7.0%. These strikes are each 16.9% OTM. RH usually moves up on earnings; it’s drop of -21,2% last June was an outlier; it’s 2nd biggest drop was only -4.3%.
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll Flipped this one without changing the expiration date.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 30th 2265/2290 call spreads for 7.50. Sold for 1.55 last Friday.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2215/2190 put spreads for 5.10, using 1.5x position size.
AVGO earnings
#Earnings STO Dec 9th 162.5 puts for 1.35. Biggest UP move: 14.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.2%, Average move: 6.2%. This trade is -5.0% OTM. Trade is bullish since it almost always goes up on earning, and if not it only goes a little bit down.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 15th 2245/2270 call spreads for 10.10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.15 on Nov 23rd.
Rolled: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2200/2225/2290/2315 iron condors for 7.70, with 1.25x position size.
VIX continuing to rise as SPX rises
Could it be people are so happy about profits, but also scared that it could all get destroyed quickly? Too they’re buying puts en masse?
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll
Yesterday, I stopped the Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 5.35. Today, I rolled:
Sold to open $SPX Dec 30th 2135/2160/2295/2320 iron condors for 3.80, with 1.5x position size.
Puts expired, puts closed
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
Expired last night: $SPX Dec 7th 2175/2150 put spreads, sold for 2.70 on Nov 30th.
After this morning’s bell: Bought to close $SPX Dec 23rd 2085/2060 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 22nd.
Upside warning re-validated
#VIXIndicator. On the chart below, the green/red candles are the VIX, and the gray candles are the SPX. The cyan arrows indicate the initial Upside Warning on 11/21, and then today. The smaller (red) Fib lines were not an official correction; just the weakness from last week. The 78.6% Fib line is at 12.71, and with today being the third consecutive day below that line, it is a “mini” Upside Warning, thus validating the one we were already under. I’ve seen in the past that these “mini” warnings almost always mean a follow-through of the original rally.
SPX Bam!
#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator As I study and analyze the past performance of the VIX Indicator, I am struck at how resilient the Upside Warning is. It is a better indicator than the Downside Warning. Today we again saw its potency. After weakness last week failed to cancel the warning, we saw three consecutive days of a much lower VIX. This provides further validation of the original Upside Warning. (I will post a chart).
My account experienced a substantial drawdown today as I wasn’t able to keep up with this sharp move. I am comfortable in the fact that I know I can roll as necessary and I will make it back on the next significant pullback in the market. That could be a month or more away, but it will happen.
I stopped out on three call spreads. I have only rolled one thus far.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2230/2255 call spreads for 11.20. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 8th.
Rolled: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2245/2270 call spreads for 9.10, and Dec 23rd 2175/2150 put spreads for 1.55. I stayed at same position size for the calls and 1.5x size for the puts, so the roll resulted in a .13 credit. The call spread is pretty close to the money, but since it is 2 weeks DTE it is more manageable than the Dec 9th spread that it replaces.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 15th 2255/2280 call spreads for 3.85. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 17th.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 5.35. Sold for 1.70 on Nov 21st.
Both of these hit my stop of 20-points OTM. I will look to roll this week.
I am still left with four call spreads that have past my stop levels. Will decide how to manage depending on how the week plays out.
How is it that UVXY…
How is it that UVXY is flat on the day? VIX up?
SPX close calls and sell calls
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2245/2270 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 10th.
Sold to Open $SPX Jan 6th 2290/2315 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2224. Those are the highest strikes I have ever sold on SPX.
Closing trades for margin
#ShortPuts #ShortCalls #LongStock #ShortStock #ShortStrangles
Closing a few trades earlier than planned due to upside pressure on my margin. Fortunately, all but the REGN stock is profitable, but that one’s a biggie (sucks to lose due to downside pressure on a stock while the indices are breaking new highs). I have lost fights with REGN before, I should know better. But I will look to start selling some options once things calm down.
STC REGN long stock for 351.25. Assigned at 415.00 earlier this week.
BTC AZO Dec 16th 720/830 strangles for 1.95. Sold for 3.90 on Monday.
BTC DUST short stock for 48.00. Assigned at 50.00 on Nov 18th.
STC NFLX long stock for 125.05. Assigned at 122.00 on Nov 11th.
Bullish VIX Indicator
#VIXIndicator #markets
On one hand, the VIX is very low and some bounce should be expected. But on other hand, today could be considered a “mini” Upside Warning, with three consecutive days under the 78.6% Fib line from the 11/21 low to the 12/1 high. I believe we are in for continued move up, although I would be surprised if the velocity is very strong.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPXPM Dec 16th 2240/2265 call spreads for 2.00, when SPX was at 2213.
New all-time highs this morning.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Another new low on the VIX today.
CMG put
#ShortPuts #ShortStrangles #Earnings
Stuck with a Dec 23rd 380 put into today’s plunge. Joining the party in the March trade:
STO CMG March 17th 275 put for 4.45
NFLX flying
NFLX flying
REGN early assignment
#Assignment #EarlyAssignment #shortputs
Assigned 100 shares of REGN from Dec 9th 415 short put. Was planning to roll by Friday but someone got greedy. I may hold the stock or roll it back to a short put or short strangle.
SVXY calls sold
#VXXGame #ShortCalls This has worked beautifully over the past year. I don’t play SVXY as much as I used to, but when we are at new highs and the rally slows down, selling juicy premium in calls is golden.
STO SVXY Jan 20th 95 call for 4.35
STO SVXY Mar 17th 100 call for 7.00
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Jan 6th 2090/2065 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2204.
VIX Indicator & SPX Chart have been updated
#Markets The Upside Warning continues as we hit a new VIX low at the close.
Options Expiration 12/5/16
#OptionsExpiration #spxcampaign
— Expiring —
SPX 2230/2250 call spreads, sold for 1.55 last Tuesday
SPX 2175/2150 put spreads, sold for 2.15 last Tuesday
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign, at the bell, Bought to Close $SPX Dec 15th 2065/2040 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 18th.
AZO earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Sold to open $AZO Dec 16th 720/830 strangles for 3.90. 13-day moves after earnings over last 3 years: Biggest UP move: 6.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.5%, Average move: 2.5%.
These strikes are -7.7% and +6.4% OTM respectively.
SPX calls sold, puts closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 6th 2280/2305 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2206.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 15th 2035/2010 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 16th.
Econ calendar week of 12/5/16
#Markets Blue stars indicate “market-moving indicators.” Pretty light schedule this week.
Options Expiration 12/2/16
#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #ShortCalls
— Expiring —
REGN 375 call
SPX 2100/2075 put spreads
SPX 2225/2250 call spreads
REGN roll
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortPuts #inversestrangle
BTC $REGN Dec 2nd 380 put for 7.25. Sold for 2.40 on Monday.
Rolled to: REGN Dec 16th 362.5 put for 7.60.
The good news is my 375 call is expiring today, which I sold as a roll for 55.65 on Nov 10th!
SPX bonus calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.50. Should expire next Friday.
SPX more puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2190 puts for 2.15. Sold as part of the 2190/2165 put spread for 2.55 on Tuesday. Another one down with a small profit.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Closing this one with a small profit, which was sold as an aggressive roll. May roll later today, or wait until next week.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 call spreads for 7.70. Sold for 8.25 on Nov 21st.
SPX calls closed and calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold two days ago for 1.75.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2265/2290 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2195.
Jobs Report
178,000 jobs added in November
Unemployment 4.6%, lowest since August 2007
Labor participation down a bit to 62.7%
UE6 rate 9.3%, lowest since 2008
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Don’t forget, Jobs Report is an hour before the open, 8:30am ET.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2060/2035 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2187.
SPX extra puts sold
#SPXcampaign Since I sold Dec 7th calls this morning, just sold some puts to offset them:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 2175/2150 puts for 2.70, with SPX at 2205.
I’m now trading in a pretty tight range, 2190 to 2230, through Friday the 9th. I’m hoping strong moves in either direction wait until after that! But, #Jobs report is this Friday…
TIF closed
#Earnings BTC $TIF Dec 2nd 73 puts for .01. Sold with 73/85 strangle for 1.14 on Monday. Total trade closed for .11
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for 1.75. These should expire next Wednesday. Completion of my rolls from stopped call spread yesterday.
New all time highs on SPX this morning.
SPX rolling out calls
#SPXcampaign I was hoping for another day of weakness to get out of an ATM call spread, but the push back to 2210 signals tomorrow could go either way. So I’ve closed it and am now selling several short-term spreads as rolls. All spreads are same position size, so I want the new ones to add up to at least the 7.55 I spent for the stop.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 3oth 2200/2225 for 7.55. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 3rd.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 2190/2165 put spreads for 2.55
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.55
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 5th 2175/2150 call spreads for 2.15
Need one more spread for 1.30 or more.
SPX puts closed, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.50 on Nov 21st.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2280/2305 call spreads for 1.30, when SPX was at 2206.
TIF calls closed
#Earnings Bought to close $TIF Dec 2nd 85 calls for .10. Sold yesterday as part of the 73/85 strangles for 1.14. Order in to close the puts for .01.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 2080/2055 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2206.
RGLD covered calls
#Earnings #StockTrades #CoveredCalls
STO $RGLD Dec 16th 75 call for .90
STO $RGLD Jan 20th 77.5 call for 1.65
TIF earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Sold to Open $TIF Dec 2nd 73/85 strangles for 1.14. Over last 3 years, 5-days after earnings: Biggest UP move: 10.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.1%, Average move: 4.8%. The put is -6.4% OTM, and the call is 9.0% OTM.
CMG roll
#Earnings #ShortStrangles #Rolling
Rolling up CMG short put. Also short the Dec 16th 420 call
BTC CMG Dec 16th 350 put for .80. Sold for 10.80 on Nov 1st.
STO CMG Dec 23rd 380 put for 5.00.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign This is from last week’s campaign but I couldn’t get it filled on Friday:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2095/2070 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2207.
REGN puts sold
#Earnings #InverseStrangle #ShortPuts
Currently short the Dec 2nd 375 call and Dec 9th 415 put (inverse strangle). Selling some puts on the spike down this morning:
STO REGN Dec 2nd 380 put for 2.40
STO REGN Dec 9th 380 put for 5.00
Econ Calendar for week of 11/28/16
Options Expiration 11/25/16
#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #Earnings #ShortPuts #IronButterfly #ContangoETFs
— Expired —
DUST 35 puts
REGN 390 put
SPX 2150/2125 put spreads (sold for 2.70 on Nov 15th)
SPX 2175/2150 put spread (sold for 14.00 on Oct 13th)
— Expired with max loss —
DE 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly
REGN fat-fingered roll
#Earnings #ShortPuts #Rolling Was trying to make this roll with a $1 credit but turkey-induced droopiness led to the reverse, a 1.10 loss. Oh well… not much in the scheme of inverse strangles…
BTC REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 22.00
STO REGN Dec 9th 415 put for 20.90
SPX calls closed, both short and long
#SPXcampaign We are up only .25% on the day, and pushing higher. I don’t want my short 2210’s to fly up in price. So…
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2210 calls for .85. Sold as the 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.50 on Oct 28th.
To offset the loss, I am closing my long Dec 5th call spread I bought for 1.90 on Monday. Closed some for 2.95, watching the rest for the next push up. I would keep this longer, but since it expires a week from Monday and is still fairly far OTM, I’m exiting now as a pullback could be coming next week.
Sold to close $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 LONG call spreads for 2.95.
I remain bullish into Xmas, but believe a pullback could be in the cards before another push higher. After Xmas, I will be on guard for January volatility, since we have seen that happen in the last THREE Januarys (2014,2015,2016).
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2275/2300 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2209.
Preemptive SPX roll
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll #Rolling Since I believe risk is still to upside, I am rolling this one early. My stop on this was 2205 (20 points OTM); we came close yesterday and I believe we will break that level later today or Friday.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 for 4.60. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.15 on Nov 3rd.
#CondorRoll: Sold to Open Dec 15th 2100/2125/2245/2270 condors for 5.10 (same position size).
DE in headlights
#Earnings Record highs for DE… and a dud for the ATM #IronButterfly. I don’t see a pullback t0 93 in the cards by Friday.
Dow 19,000… first time ever!
Use Hashtags!
I am ceasing the categorization of everyone’s posts and encouraging the use of hashtags. For the last year I have been going into my Admin screen to categorize everyone’s posts by strategy, such as #SPXcampaign or #VXXGame. But that’s simply too exhaustive now that more Contributors are signing up.
So, to help us in our search efforts and help newbies review trades under different categories, please try to use Hashtags in your posts. For Contributors, you will see common examples of hashtags in the window where you write your new post. In the right-hand column of the site, all members can see the “Most Used Hashtags” window for reference as well. Everyone can also use hashtags in the comments underneath posts.
So before posting, #Hashtag-It!
DE earnings IB
#Earnings #IronButterfly Sold to Open $DE Nov 25th 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly for 1.97. Max risk .53.
I don’t see a decent trade in GME, so unless anyone’s got a good idea I’ll be skipping it.
DUST roll
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Nov 25th 70 call for .05. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 11th
STO DUST Dec 9th 60 call for 3.50.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2220/2245 call spreads for 3.50.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2150/2125 put spreads for 2.65, 1.5x position size.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2085/2060 for 1.40, with SPX at 2202. Not waiting for a pullback because I’m not expecting one this week.
Bistro VIX Indicator for Tuesday 11/22
AN UPSIDE WARNING FIRED ON MONDAY after the VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days. This means a very high likelihood of a continued rally in the days and weeks to come.
We also established a new high in the SPX, 2198.70, and have set a new post-correction low in the VIX, 12.16.
Tuesday’s levels that would reverse course and end the Upside Warning are 15.53 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 18.24 (50% above Nov 21 low). #VIXIndicator
PANW after hours stock
#Earnings $PANW has had an out-sized move down on earnings. Bought 100 shares at 140.85. Looking to unload with a move back above 150.
SPX, reverse rolling and going long
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2200/2220 call spreads for 3.20. Sold for 4.00 on Nov 9th.
Sold to open SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for 2.50, 1.5x position size (#ReverseRoll)
The above stopped spread expires Wednesday but we could be up to 2210 by then. Reverse rolled back into some puts, one week further out. Also, bought some LONG call spreads, targeting a double or triple:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.90.
UVXY closing calls
#VXXGame Good idea, @fuzzballl
BTC UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for .04. Sold for 1.56 on Nov 3rd
BTC UVXY March 60 call for .38. Sold for 2.75 on Nov 3rd
SPX, new all-time high
SPX, new all-time high
SPX ATM put spread sold
#SPXcampaign Since signs are bullish with likely Upside Warning, sold the following ATM put spread as a roll from a stopped call spread from last week:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 put spreads for 8.25, with SPX at 2190.
Econ Calendar week of 11/21/16
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2192.
Upside Warning likely today
#VIXIndicator If the VIX closes below 13.59 tonight, an Upside Warning is in effect. Here I am reposting some data I posted on July 14th.:
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
SPX Position Chart and VIX Indicator are updated
#SPXcampaign Long overdue on the chart update. I have rolled my way mostly out of the election week whipsaw and have been keeping barely ahead of the rally.
#VIXIndicator If we have another close below 13.59 on Monday, it will trigger an upside warning. If it happens, watch for new all-time highs as we surge higher.
