#Earnings Sold to Open $RGLD Aug 19th 87.5/85 put spreads for 1.25. A partially ITM bullish spread, playing the trend and gold bullishness. Also, if it drops on earnings, it will have 10 days to recover. 1:1 risk/reward.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on July 22nd.
UVXY closed
#VXXGame, earlier at the opening low, BTC UVXY Sept 9th 58 call for .34. Sold for 1.80 on Aug 2.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign One standard campaign spread and one partial roll
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2060/2035 puts for 1.25, with SPX at 2176.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2125/2100 puts for 2.75, with SPX at 2178.
SKEW is up
For the first time since June, the SKEW went above 135.00 yesterday. SKEW is often a predictor of corrections (readings above 135) or rallies (below 120). On this chart, SKEW is in red, SPY in yellow. You can see a pop to 140 preceded the late June pullback from Brexit.
DIS Earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $DIS Aug 12th 94.5/96.5/98.5 iron butterfly for 1.58. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 7.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.2%, Average move: 3.3%. This trade profits best if DIS ends week with less than a 2% move either direction.
Max risk .42.
DIS earnings, looking at iron…
DIS earnings, looking at iron butterfly, 2 points on either side
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Aug 19th 200 call for 1.95 to free up margin. Sold for 16.20 on July 1st.
SPX rolls
#SPXcampaign These are the rolls I’ve been dreading. In a case of bad timing, I didn’t close when we hit lows last week and got stuck closing at new highs. I would be holding through this if expiration was any later. I will be piecing together enough rolls to make up the loss.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2160/2185 call spreads for 19.95. Partially rolled:
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2175/2200 call spreads for 14.40.
Long Volatility
#VXXGame Inspired by @optioniceman‘s last post and the new VIX low, I am selling some SVXY calls for the first time in probably a year and also buying some VIX calls:
BTO $VIX Sept 20th 14 calls for 1.80
STO $SVXY Dec 95 calls for 3.50
STO $SVXY Jan ’17 105 calls for 2.50
Earlier:
BTC $UVXY Aug 19th 60 call for .02. Sold last Tuesday for .60
BTC $UVXY Aug 26th 58 call for .12. Sold Last Tuesday for 1.15
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2240-2265 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at all-time high of 2186.
Selling these normal campaign spreads 30 days out around 10-delta has been working fine for weeks. I am still dealing with ATM and ITM rolled spreads that are the tough part. More on that to follow.
Highs and Lows
This is similar to the post I put up last Friday:
New all-time $SPX high
New all-time $NDX high
All time lows in $VXX and $UVXY
New 50-week high in $SVXY
New 52-week low in $VIX
VXX game closes after the bell
#VXXGame After the bell, these two closing orders filled:
BTC SVXY Jan 2017 30 put for 1.40. Sold for 7.05 on Jan 6th of 2015
BTC UVXY Sept 2nd 58 call for .28. Sold for 1.50 last Tuesday.
CHTR earnings
#Earnings Following trade is VOIDED. Mistake on entry; I did not get these prices so I’m closing for a small loss now, not worth the risk.
Sold to Open $CHTR Aug 12th 215/220/250/255 iron condors for 1.70. Over last 3 years: Biggest 5-DAY UP move: 5.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.0%, Average 5-day move: 3.9%. This trade is about 6.3% OTM on each side.
Options Expiration 8/5/16
#OptionsExpiration
–Expiring–
$NUGT 120 put
$SPX 2145/2120 put spreads
$SPX 2125/2100 put spreads
Also, at the close, STO NUGT Sept 2nd 105 put for 3.10.
New VIX 52-week low was…
New VIX 52-week low was just hit
Highs and Lows
New all-time $SPX high
New 52-week $RUT high
All time lows in $VXX and $UVXY
Today’s low so far .05 above 52-week low in $VIX
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
In pre-market, Bought to close Aug 12th 2080/2055 put spreads for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll on July 15th.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2040/2015 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 19th.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.60. I sold this spread on Monday as well… wanted to use the 2230 short for my second spread, but since I could only get about 1.10, I just doubled up on the 2225.
@fuzzballl, did Dan exit his…
@fuzzballl, did Dan exit his $FEYE trade before it tanked just now?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Earlier I closed the Aug 5th 2200 calls for .05 to clear up margin. A double-sized position that was sold as part of the 2200/2225 spread in two phases: for 1.30 on July 28th, and last week as part of a condor-roll for 1.49.
REGN double diagonal closed
#Earnings Sold to Close $REGN Aug 5th 420/460 Aug 18th 410/470 double diagonal for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.40. A double on this, but thought it might do much better. Premium dropped more than I expected out of the Aug 18th long options.
PCLN were moved to TONIGHT…
PCLN earnings were moved to TONIGHT after close
PCLN, TSLA, REGN
#Earnings Looking like a good morning for neutral trades on earnings… not much movement. I love the smell of IV-suck in the morning.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart are updated. Have a good evening everyone!
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 2200/2225 call spreads for 2.80, with SPX at 2163.
PCLN iron butterfly
#Earnings Sold to Open $PCLN Aug 19th 1340/1360/1380 iron butterfly for 18.75.
This trade will profit if PCLN is between 1341 and 1378 two weeks from Friday. It will also be possible to leg out of there are any wild swings between now and then. Low probability, low risk (max risk 1.25). If it moves big tomorrow, it will then have time to drift back to the mean.
REGN earnings double diagonal
#Earnings Bought to open a double diagonal on REGN for earnings for 1.40.
Sold Aug 5th 420/460 strangle for 9.30.
Bought Aug 18th 410/470 strangle for 10.70.
This gives 6% downside and 8% upside for breakevens, assuming exiting full trade by this Friday (trade was entered earlier when REGN was higher). Max gain and risk depend on IV drop tomorrow, but looks to be about risking 1.2 to make 1.
Over last three years on earnings: Biggest UP move: 7.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 4.1%.
PCLN earnings analysis
#Earnings $PCLN Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 11.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.6%, Average move: 5.8%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 1370.00, you’d need the 1215/1525 strangle, about 3.00. To be at the average move, the 1290/1450 strangle… about 20.00 (too risky). A condor somewhere between the max and the average may be best bets. Other thoughts?
Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24%
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Aug. 5, 2015 BO 5.23%
May 7, 2015 BO -4.00%
Feb. 19, 2015 BO 8.46%
Nov. 4, 2014 BO -8.41%
Aug. 11, 2014 BO 2.16%
May 8, 2014 BO -2.09%
Feb. 20, 2014 AC 2.54%
Nov. 7, 2013 AC 4.91%
Aug. 8, 2013 AC 3.87%
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 14.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -14.5%, Average move: 7.9%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 228.46, you’d need the 195/262.5 strangle. No premium there. To be at the average move, the 210/247.5 strangle… about 2.40.
Considering the options. Maybe a wide iron fly? Iron condor at the average? Share your thoughts!
Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 4.73%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 11.17%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC -8.88%
May 6, 2015 AC 2.76%
Feb. 11, 2015 AC -4.66%
Nov. 5, 2014 AC 4.43%
July 31, 2014 AC 4.46%
May 7, 2014 AC -11.30%
Feb. 19, 2014 AC 8.43%
Nov. 5, 2013 AC -14.50%
Aug. 7, 2013 AC 14.34%
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.75 on July 8th. This was an over-sized position that I didn’t want to leave out there now that the market has shown some volatility. A successful roll in my build-back of call spread losses.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2190 calls for .05. Sold as the 2190/2215 spread for 3.10 on July 22nd. Closed for margin management only.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2156.
UVXY calls… in play again!
#VXXGame starting in with some highest strikes:
STO UVXY Aug 26th 58 call for 1.15
STO UVXY Sep 2nd 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Sep 9th 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Oct 21st 55 call for 4.25
Only a wee-bit covered since I have only 60 shares of stock.
SPX closures
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2235/2260 call spreads for .60. Sold for 1.25 on July 18th.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2035/1985 put spreads for .60. These were told as two spreads, 2035/2010 for 1.30 on July 13th, and 2010/1985 for 1.25 on July 11th. Closing at once and a bit early to ease margin pressure should we continue dropping.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2110/2085 put spreads for 2.50. This order filled at the low tick of the day, 2166.
BMY earnings closed
#Earnings STC $BMY stock for 75.98. Sold a condor on earnings for 1.06… closed most at a small loss on Friday but kept some stock, sold now at 75.98 (cost basis about 75.60). Trade now break-even overall.
CMI earnings
#Earnings The $CMI Aug 5th 112/132 strangle is an option… Over last 3 years, CMI’s 5-day moves after ernings: Biggest UP move: 8.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -7.7% , Average move: 5.2% . Ten points OTM is about 8.2%, so some risk but a decent shot if you’re comfortable with naked options. Or you cold try a condor, maybe one strike closer, but that’s pretty low premium.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2040/2115 put spreads for 1.35.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for .30
Happy August & good morning from San Francisco!
My wife ran the SF marathon on Sunday… new personal record: 3:22:59… 1st place among women 45-49. So proud of her! Next up: Boston marathon next April.
Options Expiration 7/29/16
— Expiring —
FB 105,110, 112, 113, 114, 117 covered puts
NUGT 105 put
— Assignments —
UVXY2 9 put (should put me long 20 shares for 45.00 each)
BMY 76.5 puts – kept a third of my earnings trade for stock assignment
Thanks for a fun earnings week, everyone! More to come.
Earnings this week
#Earnings 2 and 2 this week… ALXN and AMZN worked out. Scaling out now of BMY (small loss) & BA (small profit). Both dropped too much to hit the center of my condor and butterfly. But both are rallying now, so I’m squeezing…
BTC BMY July 29th 76.5 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.06
BTC BA July 29th 135 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.65
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2125/2100 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.24 on July 21st.
Keep on Rollin’…
#SPXcampaign Sold the following rolls to the spreads stopped immediately below this post:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2120/2145/2200/2225 iron condors for 3.60 (1.5x position size).
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2125/2150/2195/2220 iron condors for 8.15 (1.5x position size).
I only moved one additional week out on each. Feel fairly safe about next Friday’s condor, but the following one is more aggressive (needed more premium) so may have to roll one side (hopefully not both sides!)
SPX call spreads stopped
#SPXcampaign Exited these on the last dip:
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2170 calls for 5.00. Part of 2170/2195 spreads sold for 2.10 on July 1st.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 11.80. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th.
I will be rolling these.
AMZN earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for .18. Sold yesterday for 5.00
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2174.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Forgot to cancel this order! Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2140/2115 put spreads for .15. Sold for 2.05 on July 20th.
CBOE details on SPX Monday Expirations
http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2016/07-11-2016-193925310.aspx
GOOGL and AMZN both pop…
GOOGL and AMZN both pop up 1 minute after close
GOOGL and/or AMZN spreads
#Earnings Selling GOOGL July 29th 765/755 put spread, hopefully for 5.00, but will take a bit less. 1:1 risk/reward for a bullish trade.
and
Sold to Open AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for 5.00. Same theory. Bullish on both.
AMZN earnings
#Earnings Selling an iron condor just outside the stock’s average move over last 3 years. Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.0%, Average move: 9.3%. Short Strikes are about 9.75% OTM. The last time the stock moved over 10% was April 2015 when stock was half its current price. It seems the moves have relaxed as the price has doubled.
Selling AMZN July 29th 660/670/815/825 condors… asking 1.85, not yet filled.
NUGT split
#ContangoETFs As discovered by @john4419, NUGT will be forward splitting 5 for 1 on August 24th. That would put today’s price at 28.40. I guess they don’t like it being so expensive… probably cuts down on the volume too much. As @Ramie77 points out, it will likely reverse split again not too long after this forward split.
This will be its first ever forward split. It has reverse split 3 times, April 2013, Aug 2013, and just recently in October 2015.
NUGT was started in late 2010, opening at a split adjusted price of $19,580. Yes, you read that right. That’s why we always bet bearish long-term on ContangoETFs.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2200/2225 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2163. Expire in 6 trading days.
Earnings mgt
#Earnings I have three condor/butterfly trades expiring tomorrow. Only ALXN is currently in profit range, but I’m preparing for reversals if they happen.
ALXN iron condor: BTC ALXN 117 puts for .05. Leaves me with 136/142 call spread, no downside risk. Order in to close 136 short calls for .25
BMY iron condor: BTC BMY 77 calls for .02.No upside risk. Need a rally back above 76.50.
BA iron butterfly: BTC BA 135 calls for .10. No upside risk. Need a rally back above 135.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2050/2025 puts for 1.60, with SPX at 2160.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs Closed a call and opened a put, which released a big chunk of margin.
BTC NUGT July 29th 175 call for .50. Sold for 5.90 on June 24th
STO NUGT Aug 26th 110 put for 6.00
FB mgt
#Earnings BTC $FB July 29th 120 call for .08. Sold yesterday for 3.20.
STC July 29th 122 call for 4.50. Bought yesterday for 4.00.
Was hoping we could open around 132.00 and THEN fall here. As it is, not much chance to sell long calls yet. I dumped the near-term one; now holding others that expire in coming weeks.
SPX Expirations 7/27/16
#OptionsExpiration
$SPX 2185/2210 calls, sold last week for 1.70 (401k accounts only)
$SPX 2130/2105 puts, sold for 2.60 on July 14th
ALXN protection
#Earnings BTO ALXN July 29th 112 put for .25 and 143 call for .50. These are protection against 117/136 strangle. Net credit on trade 1.00.
NUGT call
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 26th 200 call for 7.00
BMY earnings
#Earnings Not a big mover on earnings. Slightly bullish (trend) iron condor, with a smidge better than 1:1 risk/reward:
Sold to Open $BMY July 29th 74.5/76.5/77/79 iron condor for 1.06
ALXN earnings
#Earnings Filled on ALXN trade, 117/136 strangle for 1.75.
Risk Reversals into FB earnings
#Earnings #RiskReversal #ShortStock
To protect my short stock position in $FB, I have opened several risk reversals (selling puts, buying calls). Most were opened today, but a few of the puts were sold in the past. I believe the stock is more likely to move up on earnings. If I’m right, I will lose more on the stock position but take in profits from these options. If I am wrong and it moves down, my position will be closed on Friday via put assignments.
STO $FB July 29th 120, 117, 114, 113, 112, 110, and 105 puts. Total premium collected: 10.05
BTO $FB July 29th 122 call, Aug 5th 126 call, Aug 12th 129 call, Aug 19th 132 call. Total premium spent: 8.94
All my puts expire Friday. The calls expire in the next few weeks.
Haven’t tried this before, but it is an interesting experiment.
ALXN earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Asking 1.90 for ALXN July 29th 117/136 strangle. Biggest UP move: 21.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.5%, Average move: 5.3%. These strikes are over 7% OTM. The 21% up move is an outlier; next highest is 7.3%. If you eliminate the outlier, these strikes are outside its biggest moves.
I may add some long options as protection later.
VIX working on a steady…
VIX working on a steady uptrend since last week’s low.
NUGT put closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Aug 12th 135 put for 13.10. Sold for 12.60 on 7/11. Small loss on this one but I’m closing it now as it is too close to the money going into Fed. I will replace this premium with a new strangle sale eventually.
Earnings candidates with sufficient volume & weeklys
#Earnings GOOGL, GOOG, AMGN, BMY, CELG, COP, GPRO, MA, NXPI, SCTY, WFM
BA trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BA July 29th 133/135/137 iron butterfly for 1.65. Max gain 1.65, max risk .35. Betting for a small move or some back and forth into Friday. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 9.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.6%, Average move: 4.5%.
Anyone trading AAPL?
#Earnings Was going to skip it but now thinking of selling outs as it drops into the close.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2125/2100 put spreads for 2.75, when SPX was at 2162. Since my standard spreads for this expiry were already closed, sold this extra spread to offset call spreads that are still open.
FB put sold
#Earnings #ShortStock Sold to Open $FB Jan 29th 113 put for 1.00. I still have short stock on this so I will be selling several short puts going into this week’s earnings.
Earnings MBLY
#Earnings I have been lucky this quarter since I have not gotten filled on some trades where my call was wrong… bullish spread on MBLY was not filled and it’s looking to open down over 15%.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2167.
AAPL dumping
AAPL dumping
UVXY pre-split call
#VXXGame (Earlier) Sold to Open $UVXY2 (pre-split) Jan’18 85 call for .90. This is, in effect, the 425 strike based on the new pricing. Usually I cannot open new positions on the pre-split options, but IB allowed me earlier today. Perhaps it is because there are no post-split options yet. But alas, I cannot sell anymore so maybe it was a mistake earlier today.
Options Bistro 