Highest close in 8 trading days.
Rolled my WDC 08/28/2020 37.0 Puts to WDC 09/04/2020 37.0 Puts @ 0.17 Credit
Recent Updates Page 187
Econ Calendar for week of 8/31/2020
Last TRADE:
VIAC STO 9/4/20 29.0 CALLS @.50
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors for .90, IV 16.37%, SPX 3497, deltas -.06,+.06.
My put side are the same strikes as my #Supercharger bought earlier. Of course, call Superchargers have the exact same profile and risk as Put credit spreads. So I’m doubled up on the down side risk.
ULTA Earnings Lottery Ticket
#IronFlies #Earnings #LotteryTickets – Taking a low risk high reward shot. Risk 85 to make 665. Need a slightly less than half the expected move.
Sold ULTA AUG 28 2020 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 6.65
OSTK
#JadeLizards – Not sure why premium is so high in this but I’ll take a shot at a Lizard for next week. Considered the naked strangle but I prefer the no risk upside here.
Sold OSTK SEP 4 2020 85.0/110.0/112.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.25
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 3460/3480-3490/3510 condors for 16.45, with SPX at 3483. The price on these went up about a buck after the VIX spike. It was in the mid-15’s this morning.
OSTK
#ShortPuts – First time in this one. Selling down close to the 50ma.
Sold OSTK SEP 18 2020 75.0 Put @ 4.10
VXX – the beauty of diagonal puts
So the long puts I buy as part of the diagonal put spreads I have been setting up for months have been written against multiple times, but this week looks like a big winner for this strategy:
Just some examples:
Long 2 Jan 15 2021 12.00 Puts @ 58.29 while being short 2 Aug 28 2020 23.00 Puts @ 58.62
Long 2 Jan 15 2021 13.00 Puts @ 106.38 while being short 2 Aug 28 2020 24.00 Puts @ 123.43
Long 1 Jan 15 2021 14.00 Put @ 55.69 while being short 1 Aug 28 2020 24.00 Put @ 61.71
Long 2 Jan 15 2021 15.00 Puts @ 141.38 while being short 2 Aug 28 2020 24.00 Puts @ 123.43
Long 2 Jan 15 2021 16.00 Puts @ 163.38 while being short 2 Aug 28 2020 24.00 Puts @ 123.43
As you can see, this week’s short puts pretty much cover the costs of the long positions yet again. #DoubleDip
The real beauty is that the short positions are gone tomorrow, but the longs are still there until January.
Contango losses in VXX have recently been about a point per week, except for the occasional spikes like we are seeing in the last two days.
It’s entirely possible that eventually, the long position go in the money before expiration.
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Starter…hoping to get a chance to add. Selling outside the expected move and below the 50ma.
Sold TQQQ SEP 18 2020 115.0 Put @ 2.75
VIX
a bit more strength on the VIX and the upside warning will be cancelled
High 27.09 so far, up 15%
TRADES:
OSTK STO 9/4/20 102.0 CALL @6.03
OSTK STO 9/4/20 105.0 CALL @5.00
TRADES:
LCA STO 9/18/20 15.0 PUTS @1.23
LCA STO 9/18/20 15.0 CALLS @1.40
THC STO 9/4/20 29.0 CALLS @.50
ROKU
#ShortPuts – Another one near all time highs. Taking it off 3 weeks early…
Bought to Close ROKU SEP 18 2020 125.0 Put @ .50 (sold for 2.80)
WDAY Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Probably should just sell the put since stocks only go up. Still going with the Lizard but a little less in the money on the call side.
Sold WDAY AUG 28 2020 197.5/215.0/217.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.22
WSM
Been sitting on a Sep 18 $100/$110 call credit spread sold for $2.14 credit, waiting patiently to fill the put credit spread when(if) WSM pulls back after its insane run up since March (3x) and latterly into earnings. The tyres were kicked last night and found wanting – just the opportunity to take the Sep 18 $85/$75 put credit spread sold for $1.14 – so credit of $3.28 for the Iron Condor.
VIX SPY
It’s getting a bit crazy again.
SPY sets a new all time high (almost to 350) and then reverses a bit back to unchanged.
However, the VIX explodes from 22.85 to 24.28 in just 20 minutes.
Something is going on under the surface but I don’t know what.
Algos at work?
FB
#ShortPuts – I’ve been kinda overlooking this one. Mentioned this morning on tastytrade for it’s IV rank. Selling slightly inside the expected move for once.
Sold FB SEP 18 2020 270.0 Put @ 4.05
TRADES:
KODK STO 9/4/20 6.0 CALLS @.70
KODK STO 9/4/20 6.0 PUTS @.70
SPXtra
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3420 call spreads for 18.80, with SPX at 3482. This is a result of mistakenly entering the wrong strikes on a spread… but then I saw that I could make over a buck in one day, pretty much a no-brainer to buy it.
#shortputs #closing VIAV Bought to…
#shortputs #closing VIAC
Bought to close Sept. 18, 25 put for .36, sold Aug. 20 for .88
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Rolled the dice on a favorable close and lost. Condors sold for .90, ITM expiration costs me 8.93.
I’m probably going to sell an aggressive call spread soon, but imma wait for now.
Rolling SPX iron condor
Well that was fun. My timing couldn’t have been better for all you folks looking to fade my moves. If you missed it, pay better attention next time 😉
I will do one roll of this then I’m probably done. I spent way too much time in rollout hell the last couple of years with these positions and I’m not keen on getting back into that game. But for now:
Rolled 8/28 3355/3380//3485/3510 iron condor out to 9/2 3375/3400//3505/3530 for .20 credit. Short puts 19 delta, short calls 36 delta. In exchange for the upside room I have donated 3 more days to the trade. Let’s see if we can’t get a little 20-30 point pull back in the SPX.
IBB – Parking Cash
BTO IBB Jan 2022 : long strangle $115 call / $150 put @ $53.74
STO IBB Aug 28: $133 straddle @ $5.34
Excess premium bought $53.74 – $35 = $18.74, so hunting down that amount through straddle / strangle sales until Jan 2022. I setup the original trade on 18 August.
With IBB hovering around the $133 strike and 2 DTE, thought I’d drive the rolling process, rather than be driven – so rolled early:
BTC Aug 28: $133 straddle @ $2.30 (originally sold for $5.34)
STO Sep 04: $133 straddle for $3.94.
VXX
Sold 1 VXX 08/28/2020 26.0 Diagonal Call @ 0.21
Sold 2 VXX 08/28/2020 27.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.13
Creating Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads to help balance out a lot of short Puts.
Sold the Calls against already long November Calls.
Hoping to keep VXX above 24 through Friday.
I would add to these if higher prices come along tomorrow.
VIX shooting higher
…as the indices reach unreal heights. I left my desk for a couple hours this morning after the open was pretty calm. As it turned out, the SPX rose steadily the whole time I was away, so when I returned my short call had been hit. Tried to stop out but was not filled, not getting deep ITM. Missed my stop point so I’m without oars at the moment.
TSLA
#BullPutSpreads – Bought to Close TSLA AUG 28 2020 1300.0/1000.0 BuPS @ .06 (sold for 2.40)
SPLK Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – In a different account playing the ‘ol reliable downside Lizard. Breakeven near recent lows with no upside risk.
Sold SPLK AUG 28 2020 190.0/205.0/207.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.55
TSLA
Another new all time high @ 2166
Sold 1 TSLA 08/28/2020 2500 Call / Bought 1 TSLA 08/28/2020 2700 Call @ 2.10 Credit.
2 days to expiration
SPY bearish Diagonal
Sold 1 SPY Sep 02 2020 333.0 Call / Bought 1 SPY Oct 16 2020 346.0 Call @ 5.19 Credit.
If there is no market pullback in the next week, I can do a roll every few days after that.
SPY is at an all time high just above 347
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 28, 2020 BO -11.11%
March 4, 2020 BO +8.98%
Nov. 26, 2019 BO -2.57%
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
Avg (+ or -) 15.35%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 11.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 9.88 to 12.62 (+/- 12.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 9.52 to 12.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 8.27 to 14.23
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 13.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
OSTK BTO STOCK @114.0 A little
KODK STO 8/28/20 6.0 ITM CALLS @.70
#earningsBBY STO 11 Sep IC…
#earningsBBY
STO 11 Sep IC
100/105/120/125 for 1.00
NIO Puts
#shortputs
$NIO STO 8/28 18.50 puts at .45
$NIO STO 9/4 17 puts at .60
#earnings #jadelizard NTAP Sold Sept….
#earnings #jadelizard NTAP
Sold Sept. 18, 38/42.50/43.50 jade lizard for 1.26
Thanks for the earnings data Jeff
LULU
STO $LULU 320/330 Sep-25-2020 #bups @1.50. Underlying 381.17. Short option 15 Delta.
ADSK post earnings
#ShortPuts – Reported last night. I missed the bottom this morning but still a little premium at the expected move…
Sold ADSK SEP 18 2020 225.0 Put @ 2.62
SPLK Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out to the monthlies and selling a little lower. Stock at lifetime highs and I’m selling a put? Talk about bizarro market…
Sold SPLK SEP 18 2020 190.0 Put @ 2.80
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2020 AC +12.73%
March 4, 2020 AC -9.10% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83%
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
Avg (+ or -) 9.52%
Bias 4.46%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.02 to 232.98 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 194.54 to 235.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 176.54 to 253.46
Based on DOWN max only (-9.1%): 195.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 27, 2020 AC -4.64%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.61%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 42.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.61 to 45.39 (+/- 8.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.22 to 44.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 35.32 to 48.68
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 37.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
Dividend info
Stocks in the SP500 that have eliminated their dividend – just a FYI
Carnival Corp.
Coty Inc. Class A
Nordstrom Inc.
Kohl’s Corp.
Macy’s Inc.
Marathon Oil Corp.
American Airlines Group Inc.
Royal Caribbean Group
Delta Air Lines Inc.
National Oilwell Varco Inc.
PVH Corp.
DXC Technology Co.
Boeing Co.
Alaska Air Group Inc.
Western Digital Corp.
Tapestry Inc.
Kimco Realty Corp.
Ralph Lauren Corp. Class A
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.
Wynn Resorts Ltd.
Marriott International Inc. Class A
Southwest Airlines Co.
Molson Coors Beverage Co. Class B
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Ford Motor Co.
Ross Stores Inc.
Universal Health Services Inc. Class B
Darden Restaurants Inc.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
General Motors Co.
Gap Inc.
Expedia Group Inc.
TJX Cos.
Walt Disney Co.
Aptiv PLC
HCA Healthcare Inc.
Weyerhaeuser Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Maxim Integrated Products Inc.
L Brands Inc.
Dipping a toe back in the SPX pool
3 day trade
Sold $SPX 8/28 3355/3380//3485/3510 iron condor @ 3.60 credit. Short strike deltas at 13 (puts) and 15 (calls).
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3415/3435-3445/3465 condors for 15.30, with SPX at 3439.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390-3470/3490 condors for .90, IV 10.9%, SPX 3438, deltas -.07,+.07
SPY
BTC September 25, 280/300 put spread at .52, sold at 1.08, following the TT rules of 50% or 21 days.
TRADES:
OSTK STO 8/28/20 118.0 CALL @4.00
OSTK BTO STOCK @109.37 Not a timely post
OSTK BTO STOCK @112.68 Slowly adding stock to cover above call. Not covered yet. Have other calls with higher strikes.
KODK STO 8/28/20 7.0 CALLS @.70 Not a timely post.
TSLA
I am out of my TSLA strangle for a small loss of .30 cents, it was using too much margin. I should have done an iron condor.
On an other trade, I sold a strangle on Silver for October 16, 21/29 for 1.01
Another BABA adjustment
Rolled $BABA 9/18 270/260 bull put spread up to 280/270 for 1.21 credit. Position is now an iron butterfly (270/280/290) with the stock around 288. Total premium taken in 7.16. Nothing more to do with this. I will either take it off for a profit if the stock comes back toward 280 or will accept the max loss of 2.84.
I got this message from…
I got this message from IB
Tue Aug 25 09:09:11 2020 EST
As per Nasadaq’s System Status page- Nasdaq PHLX, NOM, BX, ISE, GEMX, and MRX have made all AAPL and TSLA options non-tradeable.
NFLX
BTC September 25, 400/600 strangle at 2.95, sold at 6.02
#coveredcalls #shortputs UNG X CC…
#coveredcalls #shortputs UNG X CC CCL
UNG sold Sept. 18, 13 put for .35
X sold Aug. 28, 8 call for .11
CC sold Aug. 28, 21 call for .30
CCL sold Sept. 18, 18 call for .52
BABA adjustment
With $BABA breaching the short call strike of my iron condor, rolled 9/18 255/245 bull put spread up to 270/260 for 1.63 credit. Adjusted iron condor is 260/270//280/290. Total premium now taken in on the position is 5.95.
AAL KSS Calls
Sold AAL 08/28/2020 15.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.18 against already long Oct 25 Calls #DoubleDip
Sold KSS 08/28/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.06 against already long Oct 30 Calls #DoubleDip
Sold KSS 09/04/2020 23.0 Covered Calls @ 0.21
Pays for next week’s beer run 🙂 🙂
Also:
Bought AAL 10/16/2020 23.0 Calls / Sold AAL 08/28/2020 14.50 Calls @ 0.05 Credit – Adding longs at a lower strike (corrected this one – originally posted wrong)
#shortputs #closing SBUX Bought to…
#shortputs #closing SBUX
Bought to close Sept. 18, 90 put. This started as an #ironcondor on February 21 with an 82.50 short put. It was rolled 6 times ending up as a naked put. I ended up making $89.
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 28, 2020 AC -3.48% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 25, 2020 AC -1.32%
Dec. 3, 2019 AC -3.18%
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +2.24%
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
Avg (+ or -) 2.90%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 226.50 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.34 to 218.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 190.68 to 234.32
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 205.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte Sold to close on GTC order in premarket: $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.00 last Thursday. Will look to get some pennies for the put side, too.
SPXpire
#SPX7dteLong Expiring ITM: long $SPX Aug 24th 3395/3415 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Bought for 15.05 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: short Aug 24th 3320/3340-3440/3460 condors, sold Friday for .90.
LAST TRADE:
OSTK STO 8/28/20 120.0 CALL @6.00
#coveredcalls #jadelizard MRO WBA AMD…
#coveredcalls #jadelizard MRO WBA AMD
MRO sold Sept. 18, 6 call for .17
WBA sold Sept. 4, 41.50 call for .28
AMD sold Sept. 18, 73/90/91 for 1.11 #tastytradefollow modification
Credit generation campaign
Short term straddle/strangle trades for cost reduction purposes on the corresponding long dated long strangles:
0.5 x EWZ Aug 28: $30 short straddle @ $1.20
0.5 x EWZ Aug 28: $29.5 / 30.5 short strangle @ $0.77 (is the $0.43 cushion versus the straddle sale any comfort?).
XLF Sep 04 $24.5 short straddle @ $0.90 – giving myself more time to adjust.
XLU Sep 04 $60 short straddle @ $1.53
Market makers playing hard to fill for the MDLZ strangle so I am closing that out and replacing with an IBB LEAP strangle.
SPX Risk Reversal
- a la RandomWalk (but not sure whether the name fits this type of trade!)
Combine a close to the money Broken Wing Put Butterfly (debit trade) with an OTM unbalanced 1 x 3 x 2 Call Butterfly (credit trade) adjusting the strikes of the two trades to place it for as close to zero cost as possible.
Sept 21 weeklies: 3420 / 3400 / 3385 Put Butterfly @ $2.55 debit
Sept 21 weeklies: 3500 / 3510 / 3520 unbalanced Call Butterfly (1 x 3 x 2) @ $2.39 credit
Only risk to the downside is the debit paid ($0.16). Upside breakeven is around 3514. Two profit peaks (bigger one @ $3400, smaller one close to $3500.
But it makes more sense looking at the risk profile:
TQQQ
BTC August 28, 60 puts at .01, sold at 1.20 and that is it for this week.
SPX 7-dte (5-dte, actually)
#SPX7dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 28th 3395/3415-3425/3445 condors for 15.25, with SPX at 3421.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2020 AC +3.67%
Feb. 24, 2020 AC -17.01% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 25, 2019 AC -11.95%
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.24%
Bias 0.19%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 246.70 to 285.30 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 249.61 to 282.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 220.75 to 311.25
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 294.01
Open to requests for other symbols.
TQQQ
In my IRA, BTC August 28, 60 puts at .01, sold at 1.15
TSLA Sep
Been hesitant to do this since getting in front of speeding trains is not my idea of fun. At least not anymore.
Sold $TSLA 9/18 2300/2350 bear call spread @ 10.00.
#earningsPANW Anyone looking at this?…
Anyone looking at this? Reports tonight.
AAPL TSLA split euphoria
AAPL new high at 515.98
TSLA new high at 2140
TRADES:
VIAC STC STOCK @27.40
OSTK STO 9/4/20 120.0 CALL @10.60
AAL ADS WBA WDC WFC Calls
Sold AAL 08/28/2020 14.0 Covered Call @ 0.09
Sold AAL 08/28/2020 14.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.06
Sold ADC 08/28/2020 50.0 Covered Call @ 0.10
Sold WBA 08/28/2020 42.0 Covered Calls @ 0.07
Sold WDC 08/28/2020 37.0 Covered Calls @ 0.06
Sold WFC 08/28/2020 25.0 Covered Call @ 0.09
Pays for this week’s beer run 🙂
Also:
Bought ADS 10/16/2020 70.0 Calls / Sold ADS 09/04/2020 50.0 Calls @ 0.25 Credit
VXX New Diagonal and other puts sales
Bought VXX Jan 21 2022 6.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 28 2020 24.0 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.
Also sold these against similar long positions left over from earlier diagonals:
Sold VXX Aug 28 2020 23.50 Puts @ 0.53
Sold VXX Aug 28 2020 23.0 Puts @ 0.30
#DoubleDip
SPY bearish Diagonal
Sold 1 SPY Sep 18 2020 335.0 Call / Bought 1 SPY Oct 16 2020 345.0 Call @ 3.61 Credit.
If there is no market pullback in the next month I can do a weekly roll after that.
SPY was down near 335 several times in the last 10 trading days
LABU
#ShortPuts – Adding one…
Sold LABU SEP 18 2020 40.0 Put @ 1.50
SPY
STO October 2, 290/310 bull put spread at 1.15, I have my order in to cover this at .55 cents.
TDOC
#ShortPuts – Adding one…
Sold TDOC SEP 18 2020 180.0 Put @ 2.60
AAPL
STO October 2, 320/360-620/660 iron condor at 2.10
Options Bistro 