STO qty 2 Aug 19 SPX BUPS 2815/2915 @ 16.42
Recent Updates Page 246
SPX
Sold July 26th 2935/2915 BuPS @ 1.00
SPX 3-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 18th 2935/2960-3040/3065 condors for 2.45
JPM earnings analysis
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
Avg (+ or -) 1.34%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
NOTE: 5-day results are not significantly different
With stock at 114.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 110.85 to 117.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 112.48 to 115.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 108.66 to 119.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-2.7%): 110.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE
STO $ADBE 8/16/2019 285/295 #BuPS @1.40.
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
Avg (+ or -) 2.82%
Bias -0.37%, tiny negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: 5-day results are more positive, with a MAX up move of +12%
With stock at 210.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 202.02 to 217.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 204.07 to 215.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 189.97 to 230.03
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.7%): 200.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE + BYND
Latest Chart for SPX/ES :
Latest Chart for SPX/ES :
SPX 1 dayer
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 24th 2990/2965 put spreads for 4.05. Sold yesterday for 7.70. Couldn’t let such a nice 1-day profit ride.
Closed EHTH LYFT / SQ CC /
#bullcallspreads
$EHTH STC 7/19 75/80 BUCS at 4.90. BTO at 2.19.
#bullputspreads
$LYFT BTC 7/19 52.50/60 BUPS at .30. STO at 1.60
#coveredcalls
$SQ STO 7/19 83 call at 1.01.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 15th 2960/2980-3030/3050 condors for .85, IV 5.72%, SPX 3008
Econ Calendar for week of 7/15/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
ILMN SOXL
#ShortPuts – Booking one and selling one in this slow week. Looking forward to some earnings volatility over the coming weeks.
Selling near the 52 week lows and the week prior to earnings.
Sold ILMN JUL 26 2019 280.0 Put @ 2.60
Booking one I had to roll last month. Need some weakness to get back in now.
Bought to Close SOXL JUL 19 2019 135.0 Put @ .50 (sold for 12.10)
OMCLPuts
#longputs
$OMCL BTO 11/15 75 puts at 7.20. I hope they cheated.
Uber strangle
AMZN BUCS / SPX Camapign Closed / HIIQ Calls Rolled Out / TNDM PLAY Puts Closed
#bullcallspreads
$AMZN BTO 7/26 2000/2010 BUCS at 5.15. Earnings 7/25. Plan to be out before then.
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 7/12 2970/2945 BUPS at .80. STO at 5.10 7/5. Thank you @jeffcp66
#coveredcalls
#HIIQ BTC 7/19 30 Calls AND STO 8/16 30 call at .60 credit. Earnings 8/7.
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 7/19 70 puts at 2.75. STO on 6/18 for 8.00. Stock at 67.11.
$PLAY BTC 7/19 40 puts at .40. STO on 6/28 for .85. Still have a few 7/19 40 puts left that were STO at 2.30. Not sure why I did not close at same time. Duh?
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Isn’t enough premium in calls, so I only sold a put spread for tomorrow, and couldn’t get filled until after the bell, as it just kept moving higher after I sold the July 24th spread.
Sold $SPX July 12th 2980/2960 put spreads for .70. IV 7.98%, SPX close at 2999.
WORK
Rolled $WORK Jul 2019 40 calls (Covered) for Aug 2019 40 calls @+.40.
Takes my basis down to 39.11 with the stock at 34.96.
#rolling day ARLO, GDX, DDD
ARLO rolled 4 straddle to Aug. for 69, received ARLO in a spinoff
GDX rolled uly 18 calls to August for.02, underwater on this, will sell puts to make a strangle
DDD rolled 9 call to Aug for .52, will be even in DDD if my unborn and unconceived grandchildren continue rolling.
#callbutterfly SPX
Sold Aug. 16, 3065/3075/3075/3090 for .95
#tastytradefollow
SPX 13-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24th 2990/2965 put spreads for 7.60. ATM aggressive spread to take advantage of the Upside Warning. Probably will close this with 50% of max. I honestly meant to sell NEXT Wednesday’s (17th), but mixed up the weeks. I’d rather an ATM spread have a shorter life.
Missed my chances to close my LONG July 12th 3025/3035 call spreads; yesterday’s highs would have been about breakeven (bought for 1.80). Still holding the 3025/3040 longs for July 19th, as well as two short puts spreads that are doing well.
CI call spread
Sold $CI 8/16 185/194 bear call spread @ 1.60.
Day trade update:
AMRN STC STOCK @22.45, up .27, enough stock to make it worthwhile. Never let a profit get away.
A TRADE:
AMRN BTO STOCK @22.18 Probably a day trade.
AN ITM PUT TRADE: (in the money)
GOOS STO 7/12/19 42.5 PUTS @.60 To acquire more stock.
Taking profits on IRBT
Bought to close 9/20 60 puts @ .50. Sold for 1.20 on 4/24.
I am now totally out of this underlying.
#ironcondor TWTR
#tastytradefollow Sold Aug. 16, 32/34/41/43 for .89
A TRADE:
GOOS BTO STOCK @41.62
FB
STO $FB 180/190 7/26/2019 #BuPS @1.49. Earnings are on the 24th. 190 Put is ~22 delta.
CMG GOOGL Closed
#bearcallspreads
$CMG BTC 7/19 780/770 BECS for .60. STO at 1.95. Thank you @ramie77
#bullcallspreads
$GOOGL STC 7/19 1100/1050 BUCS at 47.00. BTO at 22.80 0n 6/5.
NUGT adding
Sold $NUGT 9/20 44 calls @ 1.10 (highest strike).
I am now short these calls in Sep 26, 30, 31, 35, 39, 44. I could roll the ITM 26 calls up now but it would have to be to December. Could roll to 30 for a small credit but I’m going to wait a bit before I do that.
Closing XBI
Bought to close $XBI 8/16 78 puts @ .48-.49. Sold for 1.21 on 6/24.
WDC covered calls
Sold 7/19 55 calls @ 1.00, against part of my assigned long position.
DAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
Avg (+ or -) 2.02%
Bias 1.47%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 59.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 57.03 to 61.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 57.90 to 60.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 56.29 to 61.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 58.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
Completely out of sync on NFLX
Intraday weakness had me convinced the stock was rejected at resistance and heading lower, and I was looking for quick decay on short dated options. Didn’t work out so I’m closing these before they get out of hand.
Bought to close:
$NFLX 7/12 380 calls @ 4.06 (sold for 2.50)
$NFLX 7/12 382.50 calls @ 2.74 (sold for 1.52)
A TRADE:
TLRY STO 7/12/19 45.5 CALLS @.59 Covered
NFLX reversal
Sold 7/12 380 calls @ 2.50 for this Friday’s expiration
A TRADE: Continuing my assault on this……
OSTK STO 7/12/19 18.0 CALLS @.70
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX July 10th 3005/3020 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for .70. The weakness made me doubt the UpW warning again… shouldn’t have sold this call side with both the upside move threatening and Powell testimony today.
VIX
Jeff, good call on the VIX.
The VIX told us
Dow futures turn positive after Powell sets the stage for a rate cut in testimony to Congress https://t.co/xoGAh6oJmX
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) July 10, 2019
BYND BUPS Closed
#bullputspreads
$BYND BTC 7/19 130/120 BUPS at .50. STO 6/27 for 2.17
UBER strangle closed
Last Trade:
OSTK STO ATM 18.0 CALLS @.90 At the money. 3 days to expiration.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 10th 2920/2940/3005/3020 condors for .70, IV 9.61%, SPX 2975.
Gotta be careful tomorrow during Powell’s testimony.
TRADE:
OSTK STO 7/12/19 16.0 PUTS @.55
TRADES:
OSTK STO 7/12/19 20.0 CALLS @.75 Big jump today.
PLAY STO 7/12/19 39.0 PUTS @.45 Want to buy back some I sold this morning.
FB
Early Close –
BTC FB 165/175 7/19/2019 #BuPS @ 0.07 – was STO 6/19 @1.20.
A TRADE:
GOOS STO 7/12/19 42.5 CALLS @.25 My full position. A point and a 1/2 higher.
A TRADE:
GOOS STO 7/12/19 41.0 PUTS @.55
EDIT following post: ATNX Price…
EDIT following post: ATNX Price of the stock is 20.83. Sorry, don’t know how to edit posts, if possible in the first place. ;>)
TRADES:
PLAY STC STOCK @39.45
GOOS STO 7/12/19 41.50 ITM PUTS @.85
ATNX BTO STOCK 220.83
#ironcondor BYND
#tastytradefollow Sold Aug. 16, 100/115/190/205 for 3.90
LYFT Call HIIQ BECS Closed Early
#coveredcalls
$LYFT BTC 7/19 67.5 call at .10. STO at 2.05 on 6/18. Will recover as the stock recovers – it does have LYFT as a name.
#becs
$HIIQ BTC 7/19 34/37 BECS for .10. STO at .63. Thank you @ramie77
SPX expire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .95
Taking profits on CVS
Bought to close $CVS 8/16 50 puts @ .50. Time has marched on and the stock hasn’t moved too much since I put the trade on (sold for 1.34 on 3/1).
Econ Calendar for week of 7/8/19
Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Wed & Thur.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=8&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
PEP earnings analysis
#Earnings $PEP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 17, 2019 BO +3.75%
Feb. 15, 2019 BO +2.94%
Oct. 2, 2018 BO -1.79% Biggest DOWN
July 10, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +2.08%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO -0.18%
Oct. 4, 2017 BO +0.19%
July 11, 2017 BO -0.46%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.72%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO -0.17%
Sept. 29, 2016 BO +0.35%
July 7, 2016 BO +1.48%
Avg (+ or -) 1.57%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 128.62 to 135.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.92 to 134.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 125.72 to 138.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 129.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
Upside Warning data
Here’s a new chart examining the data from all occurrences of the upside warning since 1/1/2000.
–Chart includes first 20 days of each day’s SPX HIGH, as a percentage above or below the CLOSING PRICE of the Upside Warning firing date (in the current case, it fired on Friday)
–Blue represent occurrences when the highest move was +1.0% or higher
–Yellow represents a highest move up of less than 1.0%
–Red represents no move higher before the warning is canceled
–Final columns on right are:
—-Number of days in the warning before it was canceled
—-Highest point of SPX during that UpW
—-Lowest SPX high BEFORE the highest point was reached
As you can see, several UpW’s start with a pullback, sometimes quite deep. But eventually, out of 42 warnings, the SPX moved higher 92% of the time, and moved at least 1% higher 83% of the time.
Click on the chart for larger view.
SPX longer
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte
Taking advantage of more pullback to get longer.
Sold $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for 5.50
Bought $SPX July 19th 3025/3040 call spreads for 1.80
I’m working on a chart of Upside Warning data… will post shortly.
Look out above
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close Friday. This signal has been over 90% effective since 2000, leading to at least a 1.5% short-term gain in the S&P. Expect new record highs over the next couple of weeks.
WYNN
#ShortPuts – Replacing stock getting called away. Selling prior to earnings…
Sold WYNN JUL 26 2019 126.0 Put @ 2.10
SMM OMM
Anybody still members over there? Prices go up tonight. Took a 30 day free trial just to see what’s been going on. Doubt if I re-join but wanted to lock in the lower price just in case…
TRADES: Sold 1/2 of my…
TRADES: Sold 1/2 of my positions. Will buy back though. These are longer term holds. A month is my long term. ;>)
GOOS STC STOCK @40.63
PLAY STC STOCK @40.24
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors for .95. IV: 6.06%, SPX 2988.
TRADES:
TLRY STO 7/12/19 45.5 PUTS @1.21
TLRY STO 7/12/19 47.5 CALLS @1.16 COVERED
TLRY STO 7/12/19 47.0 PUTS @1.97 A rollout.
Closing HIIQ
With the stock recovering a bit and now hanging around the short put strike I decided to close this trade for about 45% of the max profit. Bought to close $HIIQ 7/19 jade lizard (short 26 puts + 34/37 bear call spread) @ 1.77. Sold for 3.20 on 6/7.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Still squeezing. Against my better judgement I’m selling one more round prior to earnings and hopefully before a big breakout.
Bought to Close REGN JUL 05 2019 320.0 Call @.05 (sold for 2.33)
Sold REGN JUL 26 2019 325.0 Call @ 3.20
TNA WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Using the weakness to get a couple rolls in…
TNA: Finally back in the green on this one after selling covered calls in the hole and getting caught in the Dec/May mega rally
Rolled TNA JUL 05 2019 60.o Call to JUL 19 2019 61.5 Call @ .35 credit
WYNN: Rolling one and probably letting the rest get called away this week. Took stock at 135 a few months ago and worked back to a small profit. Looking for a re-entry sale for week prior to earnings.
Rolled WYNN JUL 12 2019 118.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 121.0 Call @ .19 debit
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — big reversal from May’s disappointment
+224,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, up 0.1
U6 unemployment at 7.2%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.1
May revised down from 75K to 72K
April revised down from 224K to 216K
SPX and away
#SPX1dte I think we’re on our way up, folks. Barring some major event, Upside Warning should fire on Friday, and should lead to a follow through to at least 3040 over the next week or two.
#RiskReversal
Sold $SPX July 12th 2970/2945 put spreads for 3.90.
Bought $SPX July 12th 3025/3035 LONG call spreads for 1.80
TSLA BECS
#bearcallspreads
$TSLA STO 7/19 245/250 BECS at 1.70
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Selling at the expected move and at the 200ma. Also well before next earnings…
Sold AVGO AUG 09 2019 265.0 Put @ 3.40
EDIT: 4.1% divvy yield down there also
LABU Roll
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 7/5 50 call and STO 7/19 52 call at additional .90 plus $2 is called away.
Risk too big
#SPX1dte Since the day ended with a spike higher, and the we have the first $VIX close below the 78.6 Fib line, we could see a “quiet” low volume rally tomorrow, and my double-sized condor is not worth the risk, being only 17 points away from today’s close.
Closed $SPX July 3rd 2990/3010 call spreads for .65. Condors sold for .45 an hour ago. I’ll keep the downside put risk on.
Options Bistro 