#doublecalendar
$EW STC Double calendar at 2.35. BTO at 1.60. Thank you @jeff
PS Is the @ still bringing up names. Doesn’t work for me on any platform I use.
Recent Updates Page 247
#assignment Letting LABU, TQQQ and…
Letting LABU, TQQQ and TNA all be called out tomorrow. All profitable but I am exiting the triple game after seeing the tasty trade research.
Also staying out of earnings as much as I can. My earnings track record is not so good, lost on 8 out of 5 when I decided to stay out a few quarters ago. I will stay in them if I already have #fuzzy on.
Making enough money just doing #pietrades, #fuzzy, #hedges, and Pie trade #optionladder that I can stick with those. May be boring to some, but it is mechanical and it works. 2 accounts hit all time highs the last 2 weeks and both had SVXY in them. 2 down, 1 to go but that was the biggest loss and will take more time but on a portfolio basis I am back above my cost basis so technically all the losses have been covered 🙂
20 months to break even.
Plan not to ever do that again 🙂 🙂
And the hedges will help, see below.
@hcgdavis Chris, what are the…
@hcgdavis
Chris, what are the current hedges you have on?
Can you please share some examples?
AMZN iron butterfly
#Earnings . Sold $AMZN Oct 25th 1745/1775/1805 #IronButterfly for 27.00. Risking 3.00 to make, hopefully a lot.
This is a classic play I’ve done probably a dozen times. It worked nicely in Q1, with a 20.00 profit. But often, it can be max loss, which tomorrow would be 3.00. Used to get these for closer to 28.00, but times have changed; probably the higher stock price to blame.
ILMN Earnings Strangle
BTO Oct 25 Strangle in $ILMN $345 Call at $1.10/$280 Put at $0.85.
ITW Puts
BTO 2x $ITW 10/25 $150.00 Puts at $0.33.
Visa Puts
BTO 5x $V Nov 1 $160.00 Puts at $0.21. Reports after the bell today.
WBA $61.50 Calls
$WBA reporting earnings before market open on Monday, took opportunity today since stock’s down to buy some OTM $61.50 Calls Exp. Nov 8th as a 10-lot at $0.07 a piece.
Had a similar play in $T on Tuesday afternoon, bought 15x $37.50 puts for 10/15 exp. for $0.07/put as I got the earnings date mixed up, closed at a scratch yesterday, now stock is down and they’re worth $0.85-0.90 a piece…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Oct 25th 2950/2970-3030/3050 condors for .80, IV 8.89%, SPX 3004
EW
Just closed Dbl Cal BTO yesterday @ 1.55 STC $2.75
Thx Jeff
EDU
BTO, January 120/135 call spread@ 5.10
EW closed
#Earnings BTC $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.92 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.60.
#earnings #closing EW Sold #doublecalendar…
#earnings #closing EW
Sold #doublecalendar for 2.35, bought yesterday for 1.50
Thanks Jeff for the idea
VFC earnings analysis
#Earnings $VFC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 BO +1.20%
May 22, 2019 BO -7.64%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +12.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -10.71%
July 20, 2018 BO +4.14%
May 4, 2018 BO -2.79%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO -11.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2017 BO +5.37%
July 24, 2017 BO +0.39%
April 28, 2017 BO -5.56%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +4.58%
Oct. 24, 2016 BO -2.92%
Avg (+ or -) 5.73%
Bias -1.05%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.01 to 94.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 85.31 to 95.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 79.29 to 101.71
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 80.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
BUD DUB
#Earnings Bought $BUD Oct25/Nov01 92 #DoubleCalendar for .55.
TWTR PUT
$TWTR STO 11/15/2019 31 put at 1.34
BUD earnings analysis
#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2019 BO +4.11%
May 7, 2019 BO -3.99%
Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
Avg (+ or -) 4.23%
Bias -0.29%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 92.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.25 to 95.75
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.11 to 95.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 83.38 to 100.62
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 97.67
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
Avg (+ or -) 4.11%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 1,765.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,697.56 to 1,832.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1,692.44 to 1,837.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,531.84 to 1,998.16
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,627.15
Open to requests for other symbols.
XLNX
STC Double Calendar at 1.35, so a profit of .70 cents. Thanks Jeff.
SNAP shut
#Earnings . Sold to close $SNAP Oct 25th 14.5 puts for 1.60. #LongStraddle bought for 2.26. Small loss on this one, $SKZ looking bad.
FFIV closed
#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Oct25/Nov01 139 #DoubleCalendar for .35. Bought yesterday for .79. I think you can get more, and if there’s a bigger pullback this could turn into profit. This was only a small position for me.
#earnings #closing XLNX Bought strangle…
Late Post – LLY Earnings Puts
Sorry for the late post, I BTO 4x $LLY Oct 25 $100 Puts at $0.11 Debit on Tuesday near the close, and STC 4x $LLY Oct $100 Puts at open yesterday for $0.33 Credit.
SPX Campaign
$SPX 10/23 2965/2985/3030/3045 IC expired. STO at 1.50. Thank you @jeff. Sorry you prudently closed out.
Rolling IRBT
Been holding this one since July and I probably should have just removed it before earnings and reinitiated. So I’m rolling 11/15 55 puts out to 12/20 55 puts @ .75 credit. I’m also adding short 12/20 55 calls @ 1.24 to create a 55 straddle with the stock around 48.60. Total credit taken in now 3.39 so I’ll be profitable between 51.61 and 58.39 at December expiration. An oversold move back into congestion over the next few weeks will be just fine. Let’s see what happens.
#earnings TSLA Sold Nov. 15,…
#earnings TSLA MMM PYPL TWTR
TSLA Sold Nov. 15, 210/300 strangle for 3.92, outside the max moves of the last 12 quarters as always, thanks Jeff for the data.
MMM bought 167.50 #doublecalendar for 1.02
PYPL sold reverse jade lizard/iron condor +95p/-96 put/-99c/+105c, Nov. 15 for 2.03, stock at 96
TWTR sold Oct 25, 38 straddle/Dec. 20 34/42 strangle for 5.99, #tastytradefollow
I’m getting up early in the morning.
FFIV earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.46%
Bias -0.86%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 139.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.49 to 146.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.80 to 145.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 125.70 to 152.30
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 127.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings XLNX Sold Nov. 15,…
#earnings XLNX
Sold Nov. 15, 83/105 strangle for 2.25
Thanks for the data Jeff
WHR closed
#Earnings Sold to close $WHR Oct25/Nov01 160 #DoubleCalendar for 1.90. Bought yesterday for .77
Closing UNH
Bought to close $UNH 12/20 230 put @ 2.69. Sold for 6.80 on 10/16. Thanks again @jsd501.
#earnings FFIV Sold Nov. 15…
#earnings FFIV
Sold Nov. 15 125/150 strangle for 2.07
#SPX Morning. Been a while….
#SPX Morning. Been a while. Actually a long while. I’ve been getting the income portfolio set and deciding on whether and where to go next. Individual stocks, options, index spreads or even nothing at all. Spreads look to be the winner. Just can’t seem to master that swing trade / short term trade mind set. And rattling my cage, working in the garden, pulling weeds and walking the dog just doesn’t satisfy this old researcher’s mind. So I’ll see how this goes. Closed my two SPX call spreads, Oct 25th 3040/3050 and Oct 28th 3045/3055 this morning for 60% profits. Hopefully I can get WordPress to behave a little better using Firefox.
E dub dub cal
#Earnings Bought $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
XLNX earnings analysis
#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -3.44%
April 24, 2019 AC -17.07% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +18.43% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00%
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.06%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.54 to 102.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.30 to 101.70
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 77.49 to 112.51
Based on UP max only (-17.1%): 78.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
ALGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $ALGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -26.98% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -0.11%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +4.86%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -20.20%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.91%
April 25, 2018 AC +5.80%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -2.99%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +16.23% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC +10.04%
April 27, 2017 AC +12.09%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.06%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC +1.05%
Avg (+ or -) 9.28%
Bias 0.08%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 190.68 to 239.32
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 195.06 to 234.94
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.0%): 156.99 to 273.01
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 249.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC +9.93%
April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 6.70%
Bias -2.56%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 211.82 to 238.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 209.92 to 240.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 186.55 to 263.45
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 248.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRTN Straddle
$TRTN STO 11/15 35 straddle at 2.45. Short call is covered.
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Avg (+ or -) 6.96%
Bias -1.51%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 252.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.19 to 272.81
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 234.94 to 270.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 211.65 to 293.35
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 218.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
SOXL
#ShortPuts – One of my best performers over the last year. Jumping back in here. One contract in two different accounts.
Sold SOXL NOV 15 2019 150.0 Put @ 4.90
Sold SOXL DEC 20 2019 125.0 Put @ 4.70
SOXL weeklies are on my Christmas wish list… 🙂 🙂
BA put spread
Sold $BA 11/15 330/320 bull put spread @ 1.85
IRBT
I closed out the 40 p[ut of the 40/70 strangle for .45 cents. I will let the call side expire on November 15
#earnings #closing WHR Yesterday sold…
all SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Today I said to myself, nothing is happening so I might as well sell the 1-day trade early. Immediately after the fill, something happened. Now that daily trade news has quieted, we get to worry about Brexit again?
My spread was tight to begin with, so really can’t withstand even a little volatility. I was looking for the bounce to make it okay, but we fell again and are within expected move.
BTC $SPX Oct 23rd 2985/2965 put spreads for 2.50, after the bell. Condors sold for .90 about 100 minutes earlier. I’ll leave call side to expire.
I was going to leave the 3-day put spread to fight another day, but the end of the day was too ugly, then it just got worse after the bell.
BTC $SPX 2990/2965 put spreads for 6.25. Sold for 3.45 earlier today.
Upside Warning gave us a little this time around; hopefully it’s not done but I ain’t betting on it after the last few weeks.
Stopping SPX
Not filled yet but closing the 1-dte put side before the 4:15pm cut off
Yippee, finally back in. Took…
Yippee, finally back in. Took me a couple of days, before I hit the jackpot. Don’t know why I can post for months, and then can’t????? Thank you for your help Jeff. ;>) Goo.. um HonkHonk81
#fallingknife HAS is down 16%
HAS is down 16%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 23rd 2965/2985-3035/3050 condors for .90, IV: 8.25%, SPX 3012
ISRG
#ShortPuts – After last week plenty of firepower to put back to work. High margin here but below a lot of support and only 30 days out. One of the biggest drops on my watchlists today…
Sold ISRG NOV 22 2019 505.0 Put @ 3.50
SPX 3-dte
#SPX1dte Following the trend: Sold $SPX Oct 25th 2990/2965 put spreads for 3.45. Filled on the dip at the top of the hour.
KEYS
STO November 15, 100 put at 2.10, earnings are on November 18
#earnings IRBT Sold a Nov….
#earnings IRBT WHR
IRBT Sold a Nov. 15, 40/70 strangle for 1.42.
WHR Sold a Nov. 15 140/175 strangle for 2.31
Thanks for the data Jeff
#shortstrangles
#closing #shortputs HP October 9…
October 9 sold Nov. 15 35 put for 1.55, bought today for .76.
Thanks Iceman
WHR earnings analysis
#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 22, 2019 BO +0.10%
April 22, 2019 AC +0.40%
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias -2.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 161.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 151.16 to 170.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 149.71 to 170.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 136.77 to 183.23
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 175.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
SNAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (10 quarters).
July 23, 2019 AC +18.74%
April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%
Avg (+ or -) 18.34%
Bias -0.68%, tiny negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.16 to 16.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 11.84 to 17.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN max only (-21.9%): 11.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
Earnings Chart Update
$T (AT&T) reports Monday before the bell, not tomorrow.
IRBT earnings analysis
#Earnings $IRBT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC -16.86%
April 23, 2019 AC -23.09%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +9.63%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -12.33%
July 24, 2018 AC +16.99%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.41%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -32.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.48%
July 25, 2017 AC +21.14% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +15.73%
Feb. 8, 2017 AC -12.93%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC +11.35%
Avg (+ or -) 15.75%
Bias -3.28%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.28 to 63.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 46.34 to 63.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (32.1%): 37.36 to 72.64
Based on UP max only (+21.1%): 66.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2019 AC +11.96%
April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
Avg (+ or -) 15.68%
Bias 2.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.26 to 41.74
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 31.74 to 43.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 22.04 to 53.24
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 27.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIIB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
Avg (+ or -) 8.18%
Bias 0.56%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 850.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 792.17 to 907.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 780.45 to 919.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 642.26 to 1,057.74
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 726.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX expires
#SPX1dte Expiring today:
$SPX Oct 21st 2935/2955-3025/3040 condors, sold Friday for 1.20
$SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950, put spreads sold last Tuesday for 4.90.
I am flat SPX tonight.
SEDG
BTO December 90/110 call spread at 5.40
BIIB earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 BO +4.90% Biggest UP
April 24, 2019 BO -2.52%
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.35%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO +0.19%
July 24, 2018 BO +4.10%
April 24, 2018 BO +1.09%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +2.08%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -3.90% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 BO -0.61%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.62%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO +2.06%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -1.87%
Avg (+ or -) 2.36%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.84 to 237.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 219.70 to 230.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 213.98 to 236.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 216.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Really trying to stir things up now. Selling calls as UVXY hits lifetime lows. Still outside the expected move and against more puts so hope they take some heat.
Sold UVXY NOV 8 2019 25.0 Calls @ .72
NTES
#ShortPuts – Haven’t been in this one in awhile. Trying to stir things up. Selling at the 50ma the week before earnings…
Sold NTES NOV 08 2019 265.0 Put @ 2.90
ISRG
BTC $ISRG 10/25 585/595 #BeCS @.20. STO 10/18/2019 @1.20
#closing CHWY Sept. 18, sold…
#closing CHWY
Sept. 18, sold an Oct. 18, 27 put as a post earnings trade after a big drop. CHWY continued down to around 22 in October. October 1, rolled it to November. I was able to close it for a small gain today as CHWY has crossed 27.
#shortputspread UNG #tastytradefollow Sold 16/19…
#shortputspread UNG
#tastytradefollow Sold 16/19 put spread for 1.15
OSTK
STO $OSTK 15 11/15/2019 Calls @0.35. Replacing calls that expired 10.18.
#assignment WDC This weekend I…
#assignment WDC
This weekend I say good bye to an old friend, we weren’t friends at first, a very trying relationship, but we somehow worked it out.
In July of 2018 I sold a 76 put as WDC had dropped from around 106. I rolled to 75 and was promptly assigned at 75. Through put and call sales I was assigned 3 more times as recently as June of 2019 at much lower strikes. Option premium as been good, easy to roll, plus dividends made it profitable for my 200 shares to be called away at 55, making around $600.
Thanks to so many of you who have demonstrated how to roll and adjust, making lemonade.
Test
Test
ISRG NFLX OSTK
There’s no high in TEAM
#Earnings Sold to close $TEAM Oct18/Oct25 122 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60. Bought yesterday for 1.34
The time to close this was at the open…. it unfortunately dropped most of the day, but then came back enough to give us a small profit.
Have a nice weekend
I am done for the day and who knows what the news will be on the weekend.
Closing SFIX call/synthetic long
$SFIX has had a good run in the past week, so I’m taking profits. I entered into a Synthetic Long Call $21.00 with Nov 15 expiration on 10/10 for $0.25 debit. I closed the Nov 15 $21.00 put side yesterday at a $0.50 debit. Day traded a Nov 8 $22.00 call today at the lows (BTO $1.60) and closed it with my Nov 15 $21.00 Call for credit of $4.80 – so net profit at $2.45.
Still bullish on this one long term, but it looks like a pattern is forming, and while not overbought yet, I could see it dipping back down over the next few days. I’m a “TastyBites” guy as well, so I don’t have the margin to trade multiple lots and take profits off of table a bit at a time!
All cash going into weekend– have a good couple of days off and see you next week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 21st 2935/2955-3025/3040 condors for 1.20, IV: 8.07%, SPX 2993.
Expiring worthless today: Oct 18th 2950/2960-3025/3035, sold yesterday for .45 (dbl size)
BA
STO January 300 put at 5.40 on 1 contract. I will be adding if it goes lower.It works out to an 11% return for 91 days.
