Jeff 12:06 pm on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.

Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%

Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 12:06 pm on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings EBAY Sold May 17,…

#earnings EBAY

Sold May 17, 36/37 strangle for 2.18. It’s actually a straddle but the 36 put gets me closer to the max moves, thanks again Jeff for the data.

Jeff 11:33 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

EBAY earnings analysis

#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 AC +1.15%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%

Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 0.52%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 36.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.53 to 38.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 34.50 to 39.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 31.67 to 41.83
Based on DOWN max only (-10.8%): 32.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

Ramie 11:17 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Closing XBI

Bought to close $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.13 on 4/18.

thomberg1201 11:08 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings EBAY Jeff can you…

#earnings EBAY
Jeff can you show EBAY data? Thanks

thomberg1201 11:02 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings CAT Sold May 17,…

#earnings CAT

Sold May 17, 130/155 strangle for 1.83, right at the 1 day max moves. Thanks Jeff.

Jeff 11:00 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

SNAP straddle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Apr 26th 12 #LongStraddle for 1.95. I need a 16.3% move to reach break-even points. Avg move on the stock has been 19.8%. Intraday Max Move on the day after earnings is an average of 23.3%.

geewhiz112 10:00 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

Earnings Trade XLNX

#earnings
$XLNX STO 4/26 128 put at 2.30 Stock at 136.73

Jeff 9:52 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

War machine

#Earnings Yesterday Lockheed, today Northrup. Next trade will be in Stark Industries.

Bought to open $NOC Apr26/May03 295 #DoubleCalendar for 1.09.

geewhiz112 9:45 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

TWTR Stop Hit

#earnings
$TWTR STC 4/26 34 call at 5.80. BTO at 1.96 as part of @jeffcp66‘s Straddle. I’ll let the put side expire. BTO at 1.96.
Thank you for the idea @jeffcp66

Jeff 9:40 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalender, Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

NOC earnings analysis

#Earnings I found today’s trades: #DoubleCalender on NOC and #LongStraddle on $SNAP

$NOC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 31, 2019 BO -1.87%
Oct. 24, 2018 BO -6.00%
July 25, 2018 BO -6.53% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.60%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +3.68%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.64%
July 26, 2017 BO -0.07%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -1.68%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +3.88% Biggest UP
July 27, 2016 BO -0.24%
April 27, 2016 BO +1.68%

Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.51%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 294.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 280.91 to 307.09
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 286.19 to 301.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.5%): 274.80 to 313.20
Based on UP max only (+3.9%): 305.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

tabortrader 9:37 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 )

LABU

#coveredcalls
STO May 17 60 cc @ 1.15 shares at 50.62

geewhiz112 9:28 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: BuCS ( 52 ), CoveredCalls ( 2,203 )

Rolling NFLX Calls / Close Early OKTA

#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 4/26 382.5 calls and STO 5/3 385 calls for $2.00 added credit. Stock at 382.40

#bucs
$OKTA STC 5/17 75/90 BUCS at 13.50. BTO on 1/25 for 6.42. Thank you @jsd501 for your spot on analysis.

Jeff 9:19 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

CAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $CAT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 28, 2019 BO -9.12% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -7.55%
July 30, 2018 BO -1.97%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.20%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +0.61%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +4.98%
July 25, 2017 BO +5.87%
April 25, 2017 BO +7.86% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -1.75%
July 26, 2016 BO +5.15%
April 22, 2016 BO -0.43%

Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.17 to 149.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.27 to 148.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 129.50 to 155.50
Based on UP max only (7.9%): 153.70

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:03 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

ANTM earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANTM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2019 BO +9.11%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +3.79%
July 25, 2018 BO +0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO +6.15%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO +4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias 2.72%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.54 to 263.46
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 240.20 to 259.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 227.23 to 272.78
Based on DOWN max only (-2.9%): 242.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:37 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate

#Earnings #LongStraddle strategy has been working well lately. Worked on SNAP last quarter and I’ll probably try again.

$SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over it entire history.

Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01% 22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15% -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78% -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% 47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61% -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08% -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% -21.45%

Avg (+ or -) 19.82%
Bias -2.43%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.08 to 13.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 9.62 to 14.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 6.29 to 17.71
Based on DOWN max only (-21.9%): 9.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:26 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX flying

#SPX1dte As soon as I give up on the move I’ve been waiting for, it happens. Now I’m stuck with a 2930 short expiring this Friday. I will be rolling it, but not sure how or when yet.

thomberg1201 8:24 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), Rolling ( 450 )

#earnings #rolling TWTR Yesterday sold…

#earnings #rolling TWTR

Yesterday sold May 17, 30/39 strangle. Following a TastyTrade adjustment, rolled May 17, 30 put to a 39 put for 1.11, giving me a 39 straddle. I’ve taken in about $207 in premium.

honkhonk81 7:44 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019

TRADES:

YETI BTO STOCK @32.47
YETI STO 4/26/19 32.5 CALLS @.85

thomberg1201 7:44 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings WHR TWTR Yesterday sold…

#earnings WHR TWTR

Yesterday sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, bought this morning for .40. TWTR not cooperating-yet.

fuzzballl 7:39 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

BA EWZ SOXL XBI

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Cleaning up a few making room for some earnings trades…

BA: Hoping for a dip on earnings tomorrow to sell again.
Bought to Close BA MAY 24 2019 325.0 Put @ 1.40 (sold for 3.70)

EWZ: Covered Calls
Sold EWZ MAY 17 2019 41.5 Calls @ .94

SOXL: Bought to Close SOXL MAY 17 2019 120.0 Put @.45 (sold for 3.13)

XBI: New starter position
Sold XBI MAY 24 2019 80.0 Put @ 1.25

Ramie 7:06 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Closing WHR

Bought to close $WHR 6/21 120 puts @ .80. Sold for 1.80 yesterday pre-earnings.

Jeff 6:40 am on Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

LMT and TWTR closing

#Earnings Closed $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .95 and 1.00. Bought for .765 yesterday. The gap up is a bit much for a calendar to handle, but these higher priced stocks mean higher priced options and more flexibility to close. I was probably too early, but I have been bitten before by waiting

Closed partial of $TWTR Apr 26th long 34 calls for 4.00, 4.40, and 4.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.64. Looks like it’s doing its usual thing, gap and run, so I’ll wait to close the rest.

fuzzballl 9:28 pm on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: DiagonalBearCallSpreads ( 27 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

ROKU UVXY

#ShortPuts #DiagonalBearCallSpreads – A couple little ones…

Bought to Close ROKU APR 26 2019 50.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.35)

Sold UVXY MAY 10 2019 37.5 Calls @ 1.05

geewhiz112 1:56 pm on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 ), ShortCalls ( 979 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

Sell Calls NFLX HIIQ WK / Rolling TNDM Puts and Calls / Close Early SPX

#coveredcalls
$NFLX STO 4/26 382.5 calls at 1.75 Stock at 377.37
$HIIQ STO 4/26 30 calls at 1.30 and 1.20. Stock at 24.85. Assigned a bunch of these on put assignment
$WK STO 5/17 55 call at 1.20 Stock at 49.91

Rolling
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 4/26 68.50 puts and STO 5/3 68.50 puts at .80 credits. Earnings 4/30 Have to watch closely.
#shortcalls
$TNDM BTC 4/26 66 calls and STO 5/3 64 calls at .10 debit. Earnings 4/30 These are covered. Stock currently at 56.76.

#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 4/24 2875/2900 BUPS at $4.00. STO 4/16 for 5.50.Thank you @jeffcp66

Jeff 12:42 pm on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte I am tempting the market to do something. I hope it doesn’t.
Sold $SPX Apr 26th 2850/2875/2930/2955 condors for 4.75.

Expiring today: Apr 22nd 2855/2875/2930/2945 condors, sold Thursday for .80

honkhonk81 11:39 am on Monday, April 22, 2019

A TRADE:

AMD STO 4/26/19 28.0 ITM PUTS @.50 Also have the short 28.0 CALLS covered.

Ramie 11:28 am on Monday, April 22, 2019

WHR puts

Sold $WHR Jun 21 120 puts @ 1.80. Earnings after the bell today. Strike is around 1 standard deviation away. If assigned, basis will be 118.20, 15% lower than the current price. Dividend yield at that level would be 4%. More realistically thought, I’m looking for a volatility contraction after tonight’s earnings report and if there’s a move within the expected range, I’ll take profits quickly.

Jeff 11:08 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

TWTR straddle

#Earnings Bought to Open $TWTR Apr 26th 34 #LongStraddle for 3.64.

Stock has an average move of 12.1%. I need a 10.7% move to hit breakeven points. Only 4 out of the last 12 moves were less than 10%.

thomberg1201 10:59 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings WHR Sold May 17,…

#earnings WHR

Sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, right at the max moves, thanks Jeff.

Jeff 10:51 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

LMT earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Bought to Open $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .76 and .77

$LMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.45%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -1.66%
July 24, 2018 BO +1.33%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.16% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2018 BO +1.89%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -2.36%
July 18, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -2.24%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.77%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +7.36% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.04%
April 26, 2016 BO +2.58%

Avg (+ or -) 2.54%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 315.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 302.98 to 327.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 307.01 to 322.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 291.82 to 338.18
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 295.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 10:00 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings TWTR Sold May 17,…

#earnings TWTR
Sold May 17, 30/39 strangle for 1.00, thanks for the data Jeff.

thomberg1201 9:56 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: CoveredCallCampaign ( 132 )

#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB,…

#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB, ARLO

Selling calls (AXL is a covered put), May 17, couple more to get filled.

honkhonk81 8:50 am on Monday, April 22, 2019

TRADES:

BTO AMD STOCK @28.13
BTO YETI STOCK @31.20
STO SKX 4/26 30.0 CALLS @.50

Jeff 7:34 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

TWTR earnings analysis

#Earnings $TWTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

In all cases except the second to last date on the list below, TWTR kept advancing in the same direction after one day after earnings. So for the 5-day totals, add about 1-4% more than the one-day numbers below.

Feb. 7, 2019 BO -9.83%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +15.46%
July 27, 2018 BO -20.54% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.36%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +12.15%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO +18.49% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 BO -14.12%
April 26, 2017 BO +7.91%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO -12.33%
Oct. 27, 2016 BO +0.63%
July 26, 2016 AC -14.52%
April 26, 2016 AC -16.28%

Avg (+ or -) 12.05%
Bias -2.95%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.90 to 38.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (20.5%): 27.02 to 40.98
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 40.29

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:27 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

WHR earnings analysis

#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

There is no significant difference between 1-day moves and 5-day moves.

Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
July 22, 2016 BO +2.67%
April 26, 2016 BO -3.55%

Avg (+ or -) 6.91%
Bias -2.13%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 129.58 to 150.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 130.33 to 149.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 119.67 to 160.33
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 153.52

Open to requests for other symbols.

tabortrader 7:26 am on Monday, April 22, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 )

LABU

#CoveredCalls

BTC Jun 21 70 CC @ .90. STO Feb 22 70 C @ 2.80 working down assignment @ 60. This is second cc, cost basis about 56. Will wait for next up swing to initiate another cc.

Jeff 10:29 am on Friday, April 19, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 4/22/19

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=22&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

fuzzballl 5:48 am on Friday, April 19, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

EWZ ISRG SMH SQ TQQQ

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Out all week with a death in the family and next week with a long planned vacation but still trying to squeeze a few trades in…

EWZ: Assigned stock at 41.30 basis

ISRG: For earnings but out to May: Sold ISRG MAY 17 2019 475.0 Put @ 5.40

SMH and TQQQ: Rolled DITM calls out. Sold against LEAPS

SQ: Bought to Close SQ APR 18 2019 65.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.30)

Have a great weekend everyone!

hcgdavis 4:40 pm on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 415 ), lizardpies ( 28 ), pietrades ( 240 )

Back at work so have…

Back at work so have not had time to update. Managed to get a few trades in. This is update of current positions.

#pietrades
Tues. STO IBB 107.5 5/3 put for 1 right before the medicare for all gave all the biotechs and insurers a haircut. Will be adjusting this for a few weeks.
IWM STO the 5/10 152 put for 1.21 today. May convert to #lizardpies depending on market moves
LNG 67.5 put was rolled down last week for cost basis of 66.8. Need to adjust and exp. 5/3.
AMAT 43.5 CC expires next week. cb 42.55
ERX 23 cc expires today/assigned and cb 21.81
LNG batch 2 same as above but cb 67.15. Had a better fill.
TNA expiring today 65 put rolled to next week 64 for 0.48 credit. Cb 63.52 if assigned but will manage
TQQQ 53.5 cc expires next week. 56.75 cb. I tried to roll it but the MM are being greedy bloodsuckers so will take the minor loss and use the money on something else.
AMAT 41.5 put expiring today rolled to 42.5 next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 42.08.

#lizardpies
EXPE 113/130/131 for 5/10 credit now 3.84. Hope to close next week.
SQ 74/78/78.5 adjusted Tues for additional credit. 72.81 cost basis

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb down to 7.34
GILD batch 2 65/65 cb at 5.23
XBI 80/80/85 rolled today. Cb 8.96

I am trying a 21 DTE OTM experiment as I noticed while I was off OTM options usually crushed by over half from 21 DTE down to 14 DTE if they stayed OTM. Percentage wise much better than 45 DTE and really not to much closer to the money on strikes. Maybe 1-3. Will keep posted but I am hoping there will be a lot less adjusting. Adjustments just decrease profits. Will keep you posted.

Hoppy Easter everyone 🙂

geewhiz112 1:40 pm on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), OptionsExpiration ( 796 )

Expired

#optionsexpiration
$HIIQ 31 calls (covered)
$SFLY 42.5 calls (covered)
$BEAT 60 calls (covered)
$LABU 58.5 calls (covered)
$DELL 57.5 puts
$AMZN 1470/1490 BUPS
$AMZN 1840/1845 BUPS
$CMG 720/730 BECS

#assignment
$PYX 25 puts
$HIIQ 39 and 40 puts

Thanks to all that make this forum compelling.
Have a Joyous Easter, a Happy Passover or just a plain fantastic weekend. Or choose all THREE! 😉

Jeff 11:12 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

AXP closed

#Earnings Sold to close $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .69, .73, and .90. Bought for .48 yesterday.

I got .90 for one at the open… then waiting lowered the profit for the rest as the stock rose.

Closed $IBM dub cal for .03. Bought for .407 on Tuesday.

Jeff 10:37 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 22nd 2855/2875-2930/2945 condors at .80 (IV: 5.49%, SPX: 2904)

Ramie 10:31 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

Closing UVXY 5/24

Bought to close $UVXY 5/24 45/55 bear call spread @ .40. Sold for 1.34 on 4/9.

Jeff 10:11 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON closed

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .55.

$AXP will be the profitable one… order in for 1.10, seeing if price can come to me, or I will lower my ask.

Jeff 9:49 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 6-dte closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 24th 2900/2875 put spreads for 5.35. Sold for 6.95 on Monday. Index has not performed well for being under a (minor) upside warning, and this spread has bounced in and out of profit. Taking the profit while I can.

Jeff 9:39 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

ISRG earnings analysis

#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2016 AC +4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC +3.34%

Avg (+ or -) 4.29%
Bias 0.88%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into NEXT Friday per TOS): 497.67 to 562.33 (8 days, Friday)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 507.28 to 552.72 (4 days, Monday)
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 486.70 to 573.30 (4 days, Monday)
EIGHT-day max moves: UP: +9.8% (581.94), DOWN: -7.8% (488.66)

Open to requests for other symbols.

honkhonk81 9:33 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

A TRADE:

NVTA STO 5/17/19 ITM PUT @1.80 Risky

honkhonk81 8:54 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

A TRADE:

SKX STO 4/26/19 31.0 NTM PUTS @.55

Ramie 8:29 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

XBI short puts

Sold $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ 1.13 with XBI at 83.11. Delta 21.

Jeff 8:15 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SKX partial closed

#Earnings Closed $SKX 35 long puts for 5.00. Only got a couple closed before the crash. Now price has recovered some, so I will wait to see if it falls again. Otherwise, i’ll be disputing this and asking for at least 4.90. (Strangles bought for 4.15 yesterday).

Order in to close $AXP for 1.30. I show mid price as .90 currently.

$HON too high to close now, may take loss

$IBM also out of range.

honkhonk81 7:59 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

TRADES:

SKX STO 4/28/19 32.5 CALLS @.65
SKX STO 428/19 32.0 CALLS @.66

Jeff 7:43 am on Thursday, April 18, 2019

Nightmare

Total Interactive Brokers meltdown on both my computers. Unable to execute trades and missed closings on several trades. On the phone with them for over an hour now.

geewhiz112 1:32 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,203 ), Earnings ( 3,113 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

Roll GOOS Calls / Closing NFLX / SPX Campaign

#coveredcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/26 51 calls and STO 5/17 55 calls at .80 debit. Stock at 52.73.

#earnings
$NFLX BTC 4/18 345/355/375/365 at 1.50. STO yesterday at 8.40. Thank you @jeffcp66. I was away from trading this morning and placed orders for the $NFLX trades last night. I know I am not good, but this time lucky.

#shortputs
$NFLX BTC 4/18 340/350 BUPS at .40. STO 3/15 at 2.73
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/330 BUPS at .20. STO 3/15 at 3.81

Above were partly offset by the $NFLX BTO 4/18 370 calls and 350 calls which were closed for 90% losses.

#spxcampaign
$SPX 4/17 2665/2685/2950/2930 Expired. STO at .90. Thank you @jeffcp66

Jeff 12:39 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 18th (weeklys) 2850/2870-2925/2945 condors for .90. (IV 9.42% SPX 2901)

I’m going to close the put side of my monthly spread to avoid gap risk. Hopefully for .10, but may be .15 or .20.

honkhonk81 12:32 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

A TRADE:

AMD 5/3/19 STO 28.0 NTM CALLS @1.62 Trading around a stock position.

Jeff 12:26 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

thomberg1201 12:18 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongCalls ( 495 )

#earnings #longcalls SKX I bought…

#earnings #longcalls SKX
I bought a May 17, 35 call for 2.64. I own 100 shares from getting assigned last September, also short a 24 call (yes 24) with a cost basis of 31 for the position.

Jeff 12:06 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: LongStraddle ( 59 ), longstrangle ( 7 )

SKX strangle

Earnings #LongStrangle
Was planning for a #LongStraddle but since price is between strikes and stock has bullish bias on earnings,

Bought $SKX 35/35.5 strangle for 4.15. Need a 12.5% move in either direction to breakeven. Avg move on stock has been 16.2%.

jsd501 11:54 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

LABU

STO September 25 puts @ 1.90

honkhonk81 11:49 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/26/19 34.0 CALLS @.60
YETI STO 4/26/19 31.5 PUTS @1.35
YETI STO 4/26/18 32.5 CALL @1.00

jdietz1954 11:12 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

MU Bought to close my…

MU Bought to close my April 18th 44 Calls @ 0.49, originaly sold for .10 when MU hit my stop at 44. I was tempted to ignore my stop but I had to be away this morning so as expected came close to top ticking it. Alas. Hang my head in shame.

honkhonk81 11:00 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

A TRADE:

AMD STO 4/28/19 27.0 ITM PUTS @.90

honkhonk81 10:25 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/28/19 32.0 PUTS @1.60
VFF BTO STOCK 12.09

Jeff 9:38 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,113 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

Jeff 9:37 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:08 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:05 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 8:18 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 )

#earnings SKX Jeff-do you have…

#earnings SKX
Jeff-do you have SKX data? Thank you

Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte A little confusing with this being monthly expiration week but Friday a holiday. The monthly options stop trading today at the close and are settled at the open tomorrow. Then the weeklys, that normally settle at Friday’s close, will settle at Thursday’s close. So to get a piece of each series, I sold the monthlys now as a same-day trade, and I’ll sell the weeklys before the close today.

Sold to Open $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2855/2875-2930/2950 condors for .75. I may look to close today to avoid gap risk. (IV 12.5%, SPX: 2907)

Jeff 6:50 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,113 ), IronCondor ( 244 )

NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.