#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
Recent Updates Page 257
SPX
BTC August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .05, sold at .60 cents. I may have to roll some other put spreads but want to see if we can bounce later today.
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
SWK hammered
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
SPX 1-dte put side closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.
SQ-down big this morning
SQ-down big this morning
July Jobs Report
#Jobs — matching estimates for a change
+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)
June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K
Another warning
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
DRIP adding to Dec
Sold $DRIP 12/20 130 call @ 13.00. New highest strike.
VXX puts
Bought $VXX 8/16 26/22 bear put spread @ 1.91. Will look to take this off for near 3.00, hopefully soon if volatility retreats.
SPY
#ShortPuts – First sale in what I’m hoping will be a long term position. Been holding well over half my cash to start easing into this one. First sale down near the 200ma. VTI is probably a slightly better return but I prefer the liquidity. Now just need a chance to add a few more times.
Sold SPY SEP 20 2019 280.0 Put @ 2.96
7.8% annulaized if held to expiration…
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Sold UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .83
SPX
STO August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .60 cents.
STX
#Earnings #ShortPuts – Earnings tomorrow but I’m going out to Sep for safety. Divvy yield of 6.42% at a basis of 39.20. Trade itself makes 14.9% annualized if held to expiration.
Sold STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .80
#xop
bto aug 9/25 call @ .08
looking to btc for .75
when /cl move back to $58.00 ish
SQ Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – With the little pullback and spike in volatility taking a shot at tomorrow.
Sold SQ AUG 2 2019 76.0/83.0/84.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.31
DRIP
#ContangoETFs – Oil imploding but DRIP still below yesterday’s high. That’s how it’s supposed to work!
New VIX highs
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
If only I’d waited…
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
#earnings #jadelizard SQ
Sold Aug. 16, 75/83/83.50 jade lizard for 1.22, a little risky.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
#tastytradefollow #shortputs HAL
Sold Sept. 20, 22.50 put for 1.53.
A TRADE:
YETI BTO STOCK 33.17. To cover 33.5 calls expiring tomorrow.
Sold ANET
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK @47.45 Not holding over earnings next week.
YETI STO 8/2/19 33.5 CALLS @.50 Expires tomorrow. May add more if price holds.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER closed
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
Closing SHOP
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
Don’t panic
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
#earnings SHOP
Following Jeff and Fuzzball (who better to follow), sold Aug. 16, 270/300/330/332.50 Big Lizard/Iron Condor for 6.05. Thanks guys
#earnings #closing ADP
Bought Sept. 20, 150/180 strangle for 1.06, sold yesterday for 1.66. Thank you for the info Jeff.
#earnings QCOM
Sold Sept. 20, 65/85 strangle for 1.46, thanks for the data Jeff.
Upside Warning canceled
More likely to come
#spx look out below!
#spx look out below!
SPX
STO August 5, 2850/2900 put spread at .50 cents. I was too early.
STO August 7, 2850/2900 put spread at 1.10
Some TRADES:
OSTK STO 8/9/19 23.5 CALLS @1.30
AMD BTO STOCK @31.08
AMD STO 8/2/19 31.0 ITM PUTS .50
AMD STO 8/9/19 31.5 CALLS @.75
#earnings WDC
Sold Sept. 20 45/65 strangle for 1.34, outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff
#closing COP
Bought Sept. 20, 85 put for .94, sold yesterday for 1.59, thanks to MikeL for the idea.
ADP closing
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
QCOM earnings analysis
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
April 19, 2017 AC +0.09%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -5.00%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -0.20%
July 20, 2016 AC +7.36% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.15 to 78.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.43 to 77.57
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 68.88 to 81.12
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 80.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
WDC earnings analysis
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias -3.12%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.14 to 58.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 51.45 to 58.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 45.00 to 65.00
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 59.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
SHOP trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.
WYNN Earnings
#ShortPuts – Selling this early after a decent pullback this week. This is a straight put sale hoping it’ll talk the stock down a little to help me roll a 121 strike covered call. I my add a Lizard next week. Earnings next Tue after the close.
Sold WYNN AUG 09 2019 125.0 Put @ 2.40
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Another earnings announcement and another blowout to the upside. Thanks to the Lizard it still made a little cash.
Bought to Close AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 1.87 (sold for 2.51)
Order in to close the put side for .01
AAPL covered calls
Sold $AAPL 9/20 230 calls @ 2.21. Covered by long stock.
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 3.27%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 318.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.33 to 341.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 296.93 to 339.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 279.74 to 356.25
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 289.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
NVTA BTO STOCK @27.69
AAPL
BTC $AAPL 8/16/2019 180/190 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO 7/11 @1.30.
Still holding the 9/20 $AAPL 225/190 Strangle from yesterday.
WYNN Earnings
Finally confirmed…
LAS VEGAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Wynn Resorts, Limited(WYNN) announced today that it will release the Company’s financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2019 after the market close on Tuesday, August 6, 2019, followed by a conference call at 1:30 p.m. PT (4:30 p.m. ET).
The call will be broadcast live at www.wynnresorts.com under the “Company Information” section. Interested parties may also dial (888) 455-5965 or, for international callers, (773) 799-3869. The conference call access code is 3983556.
A replay of the call will be available through September 8, 2019 by dialing (888) 567-0385 or, for international callers, (402) 998-1755. The replay access code is 9694971. The call will also be archived at www.wynnresorts.com.
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – The usual. Playing for a down move just outside the expected move with no upside risk. Going out to Aug monthly for a little more room.
Sold AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.51
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors for 1.20. IV 14.64%, SPX 3013.
Juicy premium due to the Fed announcement. I think everyone knows what the decision will be, but no one knows what it will do to the market once they confirm it. My guess is: not much. But I’ll be prepared if I’m wrong.
ADP earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ADP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 BO -4.20%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +4.03%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +4.96%
Aug. 1, 2018 BO -1.76%
May 2, 2018 BO +2.74%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +2.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.91%
July 27, 2017 BO +9.10% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 BO -6.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 1, 2017 BO -5.68%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +3.52%
July 28, 2016 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.07%
Bias 0.38%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.56 to 172.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.24 to 172.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 150.89 to 181.11
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 155.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings AAPL
Sold Sept. 20, 190/225 strangle for 3.64. Thanks for the data Jeff.
Anyone selling puts on COF?
Anyone selling puts on COF?
#earnings EA
Sold Sept. 20, 75/100 strangle for 1.79, just outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.
DRIP candle
A huge red candle printing on the daily chart, down around 15% today. This is the type of volatility that kills the long side of these ETFs. Just to recover and get back to the highs from this morning/yesterday, DRIP will have to increase more than 20%.
DRIP
#ContangoETFs #ShortCalls – Now that’s a pretty red bar!
EA earnings analysis
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
Avg (+ or -) 4.92%
Bias 0.28%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.17 to 93.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 92.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 76.30 to 99.70
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 99.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
NUGT
STC, August 16, 30 calls At 5.10, these were bought at 4.50
EXAS not reporting today
$EXAS reported Monday morning, so please ignore its presence on the chart for today.
NUGT – Roll
Rolled 8/2/2019 34 Calls (Covered) for 8/9/2019 34.5 calls @0.40. Overall Cost basis @31.53.
Peeling off a little NUGT
Lightening things just a bit. Bought to close $NUGT 9/20 54 calls @ .68. Sold for 1.40.
#perpetualrollingstrangles TSLA
Bringing back a hashtag from the past. Rolled inverted 185 call/200 put from Aug. 16 to Sept. 20 for 5.26. I’ve brought in $4,160 in premium, huge margin hog for me at $10,000 with the stock around 240. Started in May as a 180p/275c strangle.
BYND closed
#Earnings Bought to close $BYND 145/175-230/232.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.45. Sold for 3.87 yesterday.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
Avg (+ or -) 4.62%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.49 to 217.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters:197.91 to 217.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 193.33 to 221.67
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 193.74
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN Earnings
Up to their old tricks again. All sorts of earnings dates out there. TOS shows Aug 1st unconfirmed and Fidelity shows today. IV on the option chain would lead me to believe it’s next week. C’mon WYNN get your sh#t together!
NVDA
#ShortPuts – I just don’t feel right when I don’t have a position in this one. One of my top performers last 2 years so jumping back in for (hopefully) a quickie prior to earnings.
Sold NVDA AUG 09 2019 167.5 Put @ 2.00
BYND
Dub Cals closed
#Earnings Move a bit too strong on both #DoubleCalendar so exiting with small losses.
STC $PG 116 for .28, bought yesterday for .36
STC $ETN 81 for .29, bought yesterday for .34
BYND Earnings
#Earnings – One earnings trade and one not an earnings trade but needed a pullback. Completely out of this stock now.
Breakeven on regular earnings since I don’t want any chance of being stuck in this thing…
Bought to Close BYND AUG 2 2019 140/170/225/227.5 Jade Lizard (skewed iron condor?) @ 3.17 (sold for 3.16)
Nice profit on the call spreads sold ITM…
Bought to Close BYND NOV 15 2019 200.0/205.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.30 (sold for 2.50)
