Hmmm, thought I posted, but…

Hmmm, thought I posted, but didn’t, so here goes.

YETI STO 8/16/19 30.0 PUTS @1.15
STNE BTO STOCK @36.38
STNE STO 8/16/19 38.0 CALLS @1.10

#tastytradefollow OSTK DD OSTK sold…

#tastytradefollow OSTK DD
OSTK sold Sept. 20, 17.50/30 strangle for 1.87
DD sold Sept. 20, 65/77.50 strangle for 1.50

#earnings #closing UBER Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing UBER
Bought Sept. 20, 35/50 strangle for .75, sold yesterday for 1.35, thanks for the data Jeff.

Z assignment

#Earnings Sold to close $Z Aug 9th 40 puts for 1.00. Lowers cost basis of tonight’s assignment to 41.74, via assignment of the 44 short puts. Condors sold Wednesday for 1.26.

Smaller account: sold 42 puts for 2.65, cost basis 40.60. Will close the short put if we recover to that level today.

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Same as WYNN. Fairly aggressive through earnings.

Bought to Close REGN AUG 09 2019 312.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 5.10)

Sold REGN AUG 23 2019 315.0 Call @ 3.80

WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Sold earnings premium pretty aggressively and it paid off…

Bought to Close WYNN AUG 09 2019 113.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 5.70)

Sold WYNN AUG 30 2019 112.0 Call @ 2.20

HI

Sorry about the radio silence for a few months. After my injury and recovery I have been too busy at work to post. Does not mean I have not been trading, just did not have time to post. I am finally caught up to the point I can contribute again.

So anyway, hope everyone is doing well. I sorted out how to separate my personal trades from the service and will start posting again. Most trades will be posted end of day but they are usually good for a few days. I also have too many on for update so will just start fresh and post as we go. I mostly trade on Thursdays so that is when updates should occur.

As some of you know I traded full time for 5 weeks as I was recovering. I am also part of the Traders Reserve family and have been working with them professionally. While I was off I binged watched tastytrade, looked at all of the research we have been doing, and experimented with several new tactics that have all been very successful. I will try to keep this short but some of the things I have learned have changed my trading techniques.

So here we go as a summary. Took the case study account from 50k to $75,983 from Jan 1 to June 30. It was more than that but this weeks pull back dropped it a few thousand. Regardless, a 50% increase in 6 months is not too shabby. This included some losing trades, I am not cherry picking here and will attach a screen shot to show this is legit and you can see I am up another 10k from June 30.

So here is what I have and have become very mechanical in my trading. Some people may think it is boring but I trade to make money, not for excitement. If I want excitement will go ski, kiteboard, bike race, or mt bike and hopefully not break any bones again.

  1. Selling options works. The only thing is have to be able to control those big losses that can occur from selling naked options. If you control that you win in the long run.
  2. I am not a directional trader. Congratulations to those that can do it, but even full time trading I could not make it work. However, adding a directional component to option selling has increased my win/loss ratio which improves returns.
  3. Keeping a portfolio hedge on at all times allows you to be much more aggressive selling options. That way if SPY goes to zero the hedges will be worth way more than the accounts. I target hedging each account for a 10% correction meaning that much of a drop will result in no losses. Any more than that and I have a winning lottery ticket. I will explain next time I roll my hedges but have been using /ES. SPX or SPY also work. I also hedge using a risk twist or ratio write so it does not cost as much or a debit spread if I am hedging a fixed amount.
  4. I finance the hedges by selling options so they only cost me house money.
  5. I usually start a position by selling puts. If it moves against me will roll. If that does not work will convert to a #jadelizard. After a few rolls of the jade lizard if that does not work will convert to a LEAP spread and manage it from there.
  6. A position may last a week or several months to years. Depends on what I am trying to accomplish but the end goal is steady income.
  7. TT found 45 DTE opening to managing at 50% returns or 21 DTE closing is ideal for theta decay. We have found 21 DTE may be even better (not in all situations). Our research has found that most OTM options will crush 90% in 10 days after opening at 21-22 DTE. Allows recycling capital quicker, faster decay, but less trades have to be adjusted. Has been the sweet spot this year. As market conditions change that may change as well.
  8. Jade lizard trades allow skewing, flexibility with adjusting, and huge income up front.
  9. Trading through market volatility increases returns once the market rebounds because you are always recycling your cash and adding to positions and basically hyper compounding.
  10. Keep margin balance to no more than 25-50% of total available that way you don’t get margin calls when the market is melting down.
  11. Don’t be emotional when trading (hard to do when your account is down) but must be done. Most people sell at the absolute bottom or buy at the top because of emotions. If they just stayed in the market they would be better off. It is only money, not your life, or face 🙂
  12. Be willing to adapt to what the market is doing. Too many people trade the same way no matter what the market is doing. Different tactics work in different markets but you have to trade the market you are in.

This community helped me realize a lot of this. Most of you are willing to take a chance, experiment with new tactics, and stay in the market even when the proverbial sh#$ hits the fan. Thanks for the help and happy to be back!

Cheers, Chris

Took me a while to figure out how to post a screen shot, but here are the returns for the year so far.

Continue reading →

SPY

#ShortPuts – Playing this as a temporary bounce and taking the quick profit…

Bought to Close SPY OCT 18 2019 270.0 Put @ 2.89 (sold for 5.50)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors for 1.35. IV 16.74%, SPX 2928.

A little more aggressive (.07/.08 short deltas) than my usual, but betting on a quieter day after today’s rally.

KHC

#ShortPuts – Had to leave for awhile today so missed the biggest drop. Trying to catch a little bit of the move anyway. Starter position at 34% annualized if held to expiration or a 6.2% divvy @ a 25.80 basis. Hopefully get to add a couple more later. Thanks @honkhonk81 for the heads up!

Sold KHC SEP 06 2019 26.5 Puts @ .70

A TRADE: ADDED

KHC BTO STOCK @27.29 Now a full position. Closed out my 27.0 SHORT CALLS, at a -.05 loss.

45 degrees

#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.

#earnings #closing Z Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing Z

Bought Sept. 20, 40/60 strangle for 2.10, sold yesterday for 2.28, took the teeny tiny gain instead of managing.

A TRADE: Where “Angels Fear to Tread”.

KHC BTO STOCK @26.90 To go with my short calls & puts.

YELP trade

#Earnings Bought to Open $YELP Aug 9th 34/34.5 #LongStrangle for 4.23.

UBER earnings trade

#Earnings $UBER has only reported once, on May 30th, and the next day move was +1.5%. (Max intraday was +4.4%)
Expected move on TOS is +/- 3.59.

Sold $UBER Aug 9th 39.5/45.5 strangles for 1.05. Strikes are 7.1% OTM.

#perpetualrollingstrangles

YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%

Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle, #longstrangle

Ketch-down

#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23

thanks for the idea @honkhonk81

SPX bailing

#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.

BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.

TRADES: Dancing w/devil. ;>)

KHC STO 8/9/19 27.0 NTM CALLS @ .50
KHC STO 8/9/19 26.5 NTM PUTS @.44 Expires tomorrow.

WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Assigned early on some stock which was fine with me. Getting a chance to sell into the bounce and capture the divvy next week.

Sold WYNN AUG 30 2019 115.0 Call @ 2.54

#rolling ROKU Rolled Sept. 20…

#rolling ROKU

Rolled Sept. 20 60 put to 90 for 1.34, put is from 60/140 earnings strangle. ROKU is at 120.

#earnings #closing LYFT Bought 2…

#earnings #closing LYFT

Bought 2 calls X 1 put Aug. 16 strangle for 1.15, sold yesterday for 3.55.

DIS put spread

Sold $DIS 9/20 130/120 bull put spread @ 1.57

#earnings LYFT #tastytradefollow Sold Aug….

#earnings LYFT Z

LYFT #tastytradefollow Sold Aug. 16, 52/70/70 strangle for 3.55.
Z sold Sept. 20, 40/60 strangle for 2.28, thanks for the data Jeff

X puts

Sold $X 9/20 11 puts @ .50

Z earnings trade

#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.

#earnings ROKU Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings ROKU

Sold Sept. 20, 60/140 strangle for 2.57 with ROKU around 100.

SPX 2-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.

Z earnings analysis

#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%

Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

DRIP new highest strikes

Sold $DRIP 9/20 164 Call @ 9.00

TRADES:

PAYS STO 8/16/19 12.5 PUTS @1.00
PAYS STO 8/16/19 12.5 CALLS @.80 Will cover if necessary.
CSII BTO STOCK @43.75
STNE BTO STOCK @34.99

#earnings #closing WYNN Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing WYNN

Bought Sept. 20, 90/130 strangle for 2.38, sold yesterday for 3.02. Maybe several other trades can cooperate now.

TNA

#CoveredCalls – Basis reduction is about all you can do here…

Bought to Close TNA AUG 09 2019 59.0 Call @ .08 (sold for 1.56)
Sold TNA AUG 16 2019 54.0 Call @ 2.05

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.

SQ

#CoveredCalls – Getting some fresh premium going while volatility is still up a little…

Bought to Close SQ AUG 16 2019 71.0 Calls @ .20 (sold for 1.34)
Sold SQ SEP 6 2019 70.0 Calls @ 1.27

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.

A TRADE:

CSII BTO STOCK @42.98

TRADES:

STNE STO 8/16/19 38.0 CALLS @.70
AMD STO 8/9/1930.0 CALLS @.23 COVERED
YETI STO 8/9/1930.0 ITM PUTS @1.05

#earnings DIS Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings DIS

Sold Sept. 20, 130/150 strangle for 3.49, thank you Jeff for the data.

TRADES:

BYND STO 8/9/19 170/175 BeCS @.75
STNE BTO STOCK @35.02
PAYS BTO STOCK @10.98

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%

Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings WYNN Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings WYNN

Sold Sept. 20, 90/130 strangle for 3.02. Thanks for the data Jeff.

TRADES:

YETI STO 8/9/19 30.5 CALLS @.50
YETI STO 8/9/19 28.5 PUTS @.65
V STO 8/9/19 167.5/162.5 BuPS @.75

#earnings #closing PG July 29,…

#earnings #closing PG
July 29, sold a Sept. 20 iron fly for 5.97, bought it today for 5.81. PG went way up on earnings and went down for 4 straight days, position finally, ever so slightly profitable.

SPX 1-dayer

SPX 2760/2755 BuPS for 0.20-0.25 for tomorrow, you can adjusted if the SPX down to yesterday low

WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%

Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54

Open to requests for other symbols.

ISRG

#JadeLizards – Rolling call spread down to the short put strike for additional premium. Still no upside risk but won’t make as much on a rally.

Rolled ISRG AUG 16 2019 535.0/540.0 BeCS to ISRG AUG 16 2019 500.0/505.0 BeCS @ 1.78 credit.

Total premium received now is up to 7.70. Make 2.70 on a big rally or receive stock at a basis of 492.30

WYNN Earnings

#CoveredCalls #Earnings – Similar to REGN yesterday rolling a covered call down aggressively for more premium. Fading the rally today…feels like all news is still bad news. REGN beat top and bottom and stock went nowhere.

Rolled WYNN AUG 09 2019 121.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 113.0 Call @ 2.40 credit (5.75 total now)

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – After seeing a crude oil chart yesterday with Carter Worth talking about the potential downside in oil I’m moving my naked call into bear call spreads. Going out in time and increasing size to make it worthwhile. I believe DRIP will be below 70 by 2021. Recently I’ve been trying to really cap my losses to the upside and this helps with that.

Rolled DRIP DEC 20 2019 115.0 Call to JAN 15 2021 70.0/80.0 Bear Call Spreads

Total credit in the spreads is now 1.60 per spread. I look at this as being similar to long term UVXY positions I’ve had in the past on huge spikes…

SPX another round

#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.

Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00

#closing SPX Sold Sept. 20,…

#closing SPX
Sold Sept. 20, 2825/2840 LCS spread for 10.10 bought yesterday for 9.5

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.

Highest VIX

#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.

$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.

Over on SMM

Someone posted that Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China for what that is worth.

#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG…

#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG #longcallspread SPX
I was able to close these 3 for small gains as earlier this year I was selling short stock at one of the worst times in history.
SPZ #tastytradefollow bought Sept 20, 2825/2840 for 9.50, playing for a bounce.

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.

Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.

Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator

SPY

#ShortPuts – Adding here. Almost caught the high of the day on this one…

Sold SPY OCT 18 2019 270 Put @ 5.50

QQQ

I sold a small amount of the 170 puts at 3.17 in my IRA. I would be taking the stock at the 200 day MA if assigned.

REGN Earnings

#CoveredCalls – Rolling covered call down fairly aggressively to slightly inside the expected move. Seems like all news will be bad news for awhile no matter what they report.

Rolled REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 312.5 Call @ 2.65 credit (4.95 total now)

Worden/TC 2000 readings

T2108 24.63
T2122 2.75

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%

Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98

Open to requests for other symbols.

NUGT’s up

#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.

Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.

SPX 1-dayer

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.

If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.

Have a nice weekend

I am done for the day.

SQ

#CoveredCalls – Getting a tiny bounce so selling covered calls at the 200ma resistance. Using spreads since no naked calls in this account and won’t get the stock until the weekend.

Sold SQ AUG 16 2019 71.0/81.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.34

LABU

#CoveredCalls – Can’t quite get it to expire…

Rolled LABU AUG 02 2019 42.0 Call to AUG 23 2019 44.0 Call @ 1.95 credit

TNA

#CoveredCalls – Selling the weekly at 50ma/200ma resistance…

Bought to Close TNA AUG 02 2019 60.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.52)
Sold TNA AUG 09 2019 59.0 Call @ 1.56

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Earnings next week so selling just outside the expected move. I’ll adjust down if needed prior to the announcement.

Bought to Close REGN AUG 02 2019 312.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.30)
Sold REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call @ 2.45

SPX

BTC 2850/2900 put spread that expires today at 1.15, I sold it yesterday at 1.40 so happy to be out of it. I still have Monday and Wednesday to worry about. I don’ t have large positions so I can roll them next week.

Econ Calendar for week of 8/5/19

Screen Shot 2019-08-02 at 10.16.56 AM
Screen Shot 2019-08-02 at 10.16.56 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

A TRADE: Getting back into GOOS

GOOS BTO STOCK, A little at a time @43.60, 43.69, 44.04

STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT…

STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT 5.50

UVXY call spread

Sold $UVXY 9/20 40/50 bear call spread @ 1.28

XBI

#ShortrPuts – Adding one here…

Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 80.0 Put @ 2.00