IRBT STO 5/10/19 104.0/101.0 BuPS @1.38
Recent Updates Page 255
#shortputs #earnings #closing SQ
May 1, Sold June 21 60/90 strangle for 1.18 bought today for .84
Sold June 21, 65 put for 1.89.
Calendars missed
#Earnings Good trades last week followed by a couple misses this week:
Sold to close $MNST 58 #DoubleCalendar for .08. Bought yesterday for .29.
Paid .04 to close $CLX 157.5 put side of #DoubleCalendar. Bought Tuesday for .74
TRADES:
IRBT BTC 5/3/19 104.0 CALLS @.75 BTO @2.20
IRBT STO 5/10/19 105/100 BuPS @2.07
#earnings #closing ATVI
Sold June 21, 45/55 strangle for 2.25, bought today for 1.54.
ANET post-earnings
Sold $ANET 6/21 230 puts @ 3.00.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Early sale for earnings next week. May adjust it down a little with any more weakness in the stock…
Sold REGN MAY 10 2019 350.0 Call @ 4.08
April Jobs Report
#Jobs Another great month; lowest UE since 1969
+263,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, down by 0.2, a 49-year low
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, unchanged
Wages up 0.2%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 62.8%, down by 0.2
March revised down from 196K to 189K
February revised up from 33K to 56K
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Late fill. Now looking to sell something for earnings next week…
Bought to Close REGN MAY 03 2019 352.5 Call @ .05 (sold for 2.45)
Rolled TNDM Puts
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 5/3 68.50 puts and STO 5/17 65 puts for 1.80 debit. Credit through five rolls is now $4.00 per contract.
I’d like it to expire before I run out of credit. Stock currently at 62.76
Everything old is new again
In case you haven’t noticed the new replacement symbol for the old VXX (VXXB) has been renamed back to VXX as of yesterday. Now let’s get it back down to 10-15 so it can reverse split again. Oh and it can take it’s defanged cousin (UVXY) down there with it.
#ironbutterfly UVXY
TastyTrade idea sold June 21, 21/34/34/40 for 6.36
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 3rd 2850/2870-2945/2965 condors for .80 (IV: 12.84%, SPX 2914)
#earnings #doublecalendar GILD
Trying the double calendar a week out, bought May 10/May 17 for .37.
#earnings MNST ATVI
MNST Sold June 21, 50/65 strangle for 1.10.
ATVI TastyTrade follow, sold June 21, 45/55 strangle for 2.25
INTC
BTO #Fuzzy
May 17 51 Call STO 51/50 BuPS .62
IRBT seems like the ideal…
IRBT seems like the ideal option to trade. I’ve only done the BuPS though. The option doesn’t use much margin/purchasing power, premiums are good, and the theta is high’ish. What more can an option trader ask for?
I’m ITM on 103 & 104 short legs in BuPs’s, ;>) , and I can close it out at a profit.
#earnings OLED
Sold June 21, 110/210 strangle for 1.50. Thanks for the data Jeff.
MNST of a trade
#Earnings Bought to Open $MNST May03/May10 58 #DoubleCalendar for .29.
#shortstrangles #closing TSLA
April 26, sold June 21, 160/325 strangle for 3.55, bought today for 2.40.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX May 8th 2890/2865 put spread for 5.80. Condor sold for 4.55 on Monday. Been getting whipsawed on these medium-term condors. Small losses but certainly annoying. The 1-day jobbers are easier.
SQ
#ShortPuts – Starter position out to June…13% annualized.
Sold SQ JUN 21 2019 60.0 Puts @ 1.06
Here comes the drop
Are we really that scared of interest rates?
A TRADE:
AAOI STO 5/10/19 13.0 CALLS @.52 Low margin usage.
TRADES:
IRBT STO 5/10/19 101/96 BuPS @1.13
IRBT STO 5/10/19 100/95 BuPS @1.10
IRBT STO 5/10/19 102/97 BuPS @1.75
MNST earnings analysis – trying again
#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Tried for a dbl cal last quarter but the big move shut me out. However, it is such a cheap play that I’ll try again.
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 57.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.57 to 61.43
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 53.98 to 61.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (14.4%): 49.20 to 65.80
Based on UP max only (12.8%): 64.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
IRDM STC STOCK @27.40 Took a .38 loss.
IRBT BTC 5/3/19 105.0 CALLS @.95 Profitable though. Wanted to release the stock from being covered.
IRBT STO 5/10/19 110.0 CALLS @.70
OLED earnings analysis – big mover
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
May 5, 2016 AC -0.76%
Avg (+ or -) 12.65%
Bias 4.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 161.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 143.24 to 179.7682
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 141.07 to 181.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (23.9%): 122.95 to 200.05
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 128.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
IRBT Moving.
IRBT Moving.
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Bought to Close UVXY MAY 3 2019 42.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.50)
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Adding one here…
Sold 1 UVXY MAY 24 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.40
Expiring in the nick of time
#SPX1dte 2890/2910-2965/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10. If the market had another 30 minutes the put side might be in trouble. Pretty sharp drop into the close, after notching a new intraday all-time high earlier today.
W earnings analysis
#Earnings $W reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 22, 2019 BO +27.85% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -12.81%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO +13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO +20.73%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO +10.16%
Avg (+ or -) 13.95%
Bias -0.63%, tiny negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.60 to 184.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 141.98 to 188.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (27.9%): 119.05 to 210.95
Based on DOWN max only (-22.7%): 127.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings CI SQ
CI Sold June 21, 140/180 strangle for 2.81
SQ Sold June 21, 60/90 strangle for 1.16
Jeff
How do you decide if for earnings how you do the different strategy’s?
A TRADE:
IRBT STO 5/3/19 101/96 BuPS @ .87
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.42%
Bias 1.52%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 69.18 to 78.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 68.51 to 79.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (21.7%): 57.96 to 90.04
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 84.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings AAPL BuPS
btc $AAPL May 17 165/175 BuPS @0.03. Was opened 3/26 for 1.65.
#earnings AAPL
Yesterday sold May 17, 180/220 strangle for 1.40, bought today for .60. Thanks to Jeff for the earnings data.
SPX Campaign Expired
#spxcampaign
$SPX 4/30 2790/2810/2950/2970 Expired. STO on 4/15 at 3.90. Thank you @jeffcp66 Somehow, I lost track of this trade. Should have been closed out earlier. Whew!
Using GOOGL To Find My Way / Sell CVX Call / Close Partial AAPL Call / Close NFLX Call / Rolling TNDM TQQQ Calls
#bullcallspreads
$GOOGL BTO 5/10 1200/1220 BUCS at 8.50
#bullputspreads
$GOOGL STO 5/3 1190/1200 BUPS at 4.50
$GOOGL STO 5/10 1165/1175 BUPS at 3.10
$GOOGL STO 6/21 1145/1160 BUPS at 4.50
May not find my way. Almost looks like I lost my mind.
#shortcalls
$CVX STO 5/3 120 call at 1.52. Sold against long 5/17 130 call position.
#longcalls Closing partial before earnings
$AAPL STC 5/17 175 call at 27.93. BTO at 9.47 on 3/11.
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 5/3 385 call at .40. STO 4/23 for 6.89
Rolling
$TNDM BTC 5/3 64 calls and STO 5/17 70 calls for $1.00 debit. Earnings tonight. Not sure how smart this was. Will find out.
$TQQQ BTC 5/17 58 calls and STO 6/21 70 calls for $6.00 debit. These are sold against 1/2020 66.667 calls.
#earnings CLX
Sold June 21, 145/175 strangle for 1.50, thanks for the data Jeff.
A TRADE:
AMD STC STOCK @27.55 Earnings in 10 minutes.
CLX
Sold to open June 21, 145/175 strangle at 1.40
#earnings AMD
Kind of far out to be called an earnings trade, sold June 21, 27 straddle for 4.55
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 1st 2890/2910-2965/2980 condors for 1.10. (IV: 9.61%, SPX: 2942)
CLX dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $CLX May03/May10 157.5 put calendars and 160 call calendars .74 total. So this is a split-strike #DoubleCalendar, a bit lower max profit but a wider profit range.
#earnings #doublecalendar FEYE
Bought double calendars for .12
WDC
BTC the June 37.5/62.5 strangle at .45 cents sod yesterday at 1.00
CLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $CLX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Considering a #DoubleCalendar
Feb. 4, 2019 BO +5.68%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO -2.85%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.17% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 BO -0.70%
Feb. 2, 2018 BO -6.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +1.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.09%
May 3, 2017 BO +0.85%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +4.07%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -3.19%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +0.99%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.94%
Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 158.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 152.89 to 164.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 153.84 to 163.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (6.7%): 148.00 to 169.30
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 168.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX stopped out
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 30th 2920/2900 put spreads for 1.95. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
TNDM earnings analysis
#Earnings $TNDM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Pretty crazy stock. Topped out above 300 in 2009 and again in 2014, but was trading below 3.00 early last year.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +25.19% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -1.62%
July 30, 2018 AC +10.95%
April 26, 2018 AC -2.37%
March 1, 2018 AC +14.75%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -6.25%
July 27, 2017 AC -10.16%
April 27, 2017 AC -9.52%
March 8, 2017 AC -11.62%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -58.87% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -14.78%
April 28, 2016 AC +2.29%
Avg (+ or -) 14.03%
Bias -5.17%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.47 to 70.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 54.16 to 71.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (58.9%): 25.91 to 100.09
Based on UP max only (+25.2%): 78.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings AAPL
Sold May 17, 180/200 strangle for 1.40, thanks for the data Jeff.
SPX 1-dter BeCS spx 1…
SPX 1-dter BeCS spx 1 May 2019 2965/2970 at 0.25
SPOT off
#Earnings BTC $SPOT May 3rd 127/129-145/147 #IronCondor for .25. Sold Friday for .95
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Avg (+ or -) 4.73%
Bias 1.44%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 202.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 192.37 to 211.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 192.44 to 211.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (6.8%): 188.20 to 215.80
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 188.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings WDC
Yesterday sold June 21, 37.50/62.50 strangle for 1.00, bought this morning for .51.
GOOGL down
Alphabet is going to open with its biggest earnings move DOWN since January 2012.
Speculative trades
Small accounts, small size, IRAs. Don’t bet the farm on these types of trades.
#pietrades
LABU 5/3 49 put STO for 1.05
LABU 5/3 50 cc for cost basis of 48.30.
TQQQ 5/3 66 cc for cost of 65.03.
Will let call out, assign, or expire.
Hopefully the bottom does not fall out in 3-4 days, if so will roll as long as needed. All of these are 78.4% + annualized or better.
CC AAPL DOVA SFIX FB / Rolling BURL Calls
#coveredcalls
$AAPL STO 5/3 212.50 calls at 1.70
$DOVA STO 5/17 10 calls at .90
$SFIX STO 5/3 28 calls at .30
$FB STO 5/3 195 calls at 1.10
Rolling
$BURL BTC 5/3 165 call and STO 5/10 170 call for 3.40 debit. Stock currently at 171.35.
TRADE:
AMD STC STOCK @27.72 Earnings tomorrow, AMC.
SPX 1-dter
#SPX1dte We get an extra series this week, since the EOM (end-of-month) options expire on Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 2900/2920-2970/2985 condors for .80. (IV: 8.73%, SPX: 2948)
SPX rolling
GOOGL condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $GOOGL May 3rd 1210/1220-1340/1350 #IronCondor for 2.15.
Closed SPX 4/29 Early
$SPX BTC 4/29 call side at .50. STO Friday at .90. I’ll let Put side expire. Thank you @jeff
Adding a put spread in SPOT
With the volume drying up, I added a bull put spread to the bear call spread I sold earlier this morning, to create an iron condor. Sold $SPOT 5/17 130/120 BuPS @ 1.50. Position is now 120/130/145/155 iron condor with total premium taken in around 1/3 the width of the strikes (3.23 for both sides). Short put strike at 26 delta.
MCD
Dbl Cal 05/03 05/10 190 – 200 $.63
A TRADE:
IRBT BTO STOCK @102.90 An addition.
IRBT BTO STOCK @103.40 ” ” “
NTES
#ShortPuts – Booking it…earnings the following week also.
Bought to Close NTES MAY 10 2019 250.0 Put @ .18 (sold for 3.80)
REGN SOXL T VIX
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Been a busy couple weeks so finally catching up with some market stuff…
REGN: Stock assigned at 376.60 basis. Earnings next week so trying to sneak in a sale this week. Good timing for once sold right at the open. 🙂
Sold REGN MAY 03 2019 352.5 Call @ 2.45
SOXL: Last week sometime…
Sold SOXL JUN 21 2019 140.0 Put @ 5.40
T: Stock assigned at 31.02 basis…
Sold T MAY 24 2019 31.5 Calls @ .33
VIX: Theotrade style hedge. Selling put spreads to finance buying call spreads…
Sold VIX Jul 14/11 put spreads / Bought VIX Jul 19/25 call spreads @ .12 credit
#earnings THC, STX
Not much IV in the companies reporting tonight and tomorrow morning, but THC and STX are up there. Jeff, do you have data for them? Thank you as always.
A TRADE:
IRBT STO 5/3/19 105.0 CALL @1.29 Covered
A TRADE:
YETI STO 5/3/19 NTM 37.0 CALL @2.24 Will cover if necessary.
#earnings WDC
Sold June 21, 37.50/62.50 strangle for 1.00. Thanks you Jeff for the data.
A TRADE:
IRBT STO 5/3/19 102/98 BuPS @1.32
Options Bistro 