Expired $WORK Aug 16 40 Call (covered). Was STO on 7/11 @.45.
Recent Updates Page 255
Econ Calendar for week of 8/19/19
#Fed minutes Wednesday, Jerome Powell speaks Friday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=19&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#earnings #closing AAPL July 30,…
TLRY burned out
#Earnings Looked like it might light up on Wednesday, but this is dropping like a stoned.
$TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly, sold for 2.94 on Tuesday, expiring ITM for 4.00 debit, 1.06 loss.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 19th 2795/2815-2930/2950 condors for 1.15.
Expiring today: Had to watch this all day but looks like I’ll escape with nary a scratch:
Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Also closed: Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for .25, sold Wednesday for 2.70.
Getting crushed on a 2900/2925 call spread for Aug 21st… holding for the weekend as I think we still have some more correcting to do.
ISRG
#JadeLizards – Still playing with a non-earnings Jade Lizard. Was hoping for a 500 pin today but not looking likely. Rolling the whole thing out a week (put side 5 points lower).
Rolled AUG 16 2019 500.0/500.0/505.0 Jade Lizard to AUG 23 495.0/500.0/5o5.0 @ 4.25 credit (11.95 total now)
NVDA
#CoveredCalls – Played earnings to the downside but got a bounce instead. Rolling a couple weeks…
Rolled NVDA AUG 16 2019 150.0 Call to SEP 06 2019 152.5 Call @ .75 credit (8.00 total now)
TRADES:
ARWR STO 9/20/19 32.0 CALLS @1.30 A roll out and up 2 strikes of an ITM covered short call.
STNE STO 9/20/19 34.0 CALLS @1.35 Covered
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Good day for a bounce on this one…
Rolled SOXL AUG 16 2019 150.0 Put to SEP 20 2019 140.0 Put @ 8.00 credit (10.30 total now)
TRADES:
STNE BTO STOCK 31.98
ARWR BTC SHORT 30.0 CALLS, and rolling out and up.
NVDA
#rolling WDC Rolled ITM 55…
#rolling WDC
Rolled ITM 55 covered calls from Aug. 16 to Aug. 23 for 1.04.
#earnings #closing NVDA Bought jade…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors for 1.15, IV 20.82%, SPX 2846
BA put spread
Sold $BA 9/20 310/300 bull put spread @ 2.15
#earnings #rolling ANET pain August…
#earnings DE Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings DE
Sold Sept. 20, 120/165 strangle for 1.65, thanks for the data Jeff.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.36%
Bias 2.84%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.54 to 149.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.86 to 150.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 123.28 to 161.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 131.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding to an existing position. A couple strikes lower for similar premium.
Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 78.0 Put @ 2.00
EWW TNA
#CoveredCalls – Assigned early on some EWW and selling against TNA again.
Sold EWW SEP 13 2019 39.5 Calls @ .46
Bought to Close TNA AUG 16 2019 54.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.05)
Sold TNA AUG 30 2019 51.5 Call @ 2.18
Rolling just about everything. As…
Rolling just about everything. As I mentioned will not list all my ongoing trades, just list new ones going forward or ones that were listed before I had to drop out.
Tried a directional trade on /ES at the open, lost $700 when my stop was hit.
XBI 82.5 put rolled down to 80 for 9/6 for 0.26 credit. Cb 79.74 if assigned
EOG 85/83.5 #fuzzy rolled out to 9/13 for 0.45 credit. Cb 17.89
LABU 41 puts rolled down to 38 and 9/13 for 0.5, 0.45, 0.55 credits. cb ranges from 37.45-37.55
GILD 65/65 #fuzzy (some of these were on before March injury) rolled for 0.51 credit. Cost basis now 0.53, 3.20, 6.72, and 2.52. A few will be 100% returns and free trades in just a few more rolls.
TQQQ 62.5 rolled down to 60 for 9/13 for 0.67 credit. Cb 59.33
Hope everyone is doing well. I suspect there will be some more rolls before my trades break even or make money.
SPX 6-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads for 5.00. This offsets 2725/2700 put side sold yesterday. Call side is more aggressive as I believe we are headed lower over coming days. A fourth Downside Warning fired at yesterday’s close, and I don’t think it was the bottom.
#earnings #closing BABA Bought Sept….
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 2.60%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.16 to 162.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 105.30 to 194.70
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 121.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPY
~$100k bet that the market will be up 10% by October?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/someones-betting-big-p-500-193135605.html
(wasn’t me…)
#earnings WMT #jadelizard Sold a…
#earnings WMT
#jadelizard Sold a jade lizard with protection, Sept. 13, 95/102/108/109 for 1.63.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.70. I’m delaying the call side until we get a bounce.
TLT call spread
Sold $TLT 9/20 147/152 bear call spread @ 1.30. IV rank 99.
#fallingknife #shortputs M Sold Sept….
Sold Sept. 20, 17 put for 1.08. Macy’s is down 2.25, about 11% after earnings.
NVDA earnings (sort of)
#JadeLizards – Playing this like an #Earnings trade but going out further for more safety. No upside risk and would get the stock at a 129 basis if it implodes…
Sold NVDA SEP 20 2019 135.0/150.0/155.0 Jade Lizard @ 6.00
SQ 8/23 5 puts closed…
SQ 8/23 65 puts closed for 3.95 or 2.72 loss per contract. I was going to convert to a #jadelizard but do not have time and also took the loss to avoid margin issues so I can stay in my other trades.
First losing trade on SQ this year.
Lots of other trades/puts are ITM but they still have good theta decay so will adjust those tomorrow.
Had a few extra minutes for lunch so:
LNG 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down to 60 for 1.55 debit and cb of 9.30.
EOG 87.5/87.5 #fuzzy expiring this week rolled down to 75/75 for next week for 3.16 debit. Cb now 18.34
T2108
Anyone know where this is down to today?
#earnings BABA Trying again, sold…
#earnings BABA
Trying again, sold Sept. 20, 140/180 strangle for 3.67 with stock at 160.
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sep 20th 175 calls for 6.70. This should help ease the burden of carrying short 115 calls ITM.
NVCR
STO September 20, 80 puts at 2.50 with stock trading at 86.50, after seeing the CEO on Jim Cramer last night.Small spec play for me on a cancer treatment.
VXX long game
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.95. First purchase of this symbol for the long put play.
Also, adding to my position on $VXX:
Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.25 back on Aug 5th,
Bought more for 1.20 today.
Avg price on my whole batch is now 1.40.
SPX puts closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 16th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.40. This was a thoroughly annoying one. Not only could I have closed it yesterday for probably .20, but I tried to close at the open for under 1.00. Missing my fill, I ended up chasing it down, trying to fill on each bounce, until finally I just had to pull the cord. At least I got the 1.00 profit. I’ll let the calls expire, even through that side traded as high as 8.00 yesterday.
Condors sold Monday for 3.45.
UVXY
#ContangoETFs #BearCallSpreads – Adding one and starting a new batch…
Sold UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.26
Sold UVXY OCT 18 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.23
TRADE:
OSTK STO 8/23/19 20.0 CALLS @.60 Covered
That dead cat bounce did…
That dead cat bounce did not stay in the air long. I will be adjusting trades to neutral to bearish stance or at least to trades that won’t get killed with whipsaws.
Have a lot of trades ITM that expire this week and next week.
ADDED GOOS STOCK @40.75 to…
ADDED GOOS STOCK @40.75 to balance my earlier entry, at a higher buy.
#shortputs NKTR Sold Sept. 20,…
#shortputs NKTR
Sold Sept. 20, 17 put for 1.16.
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK 43.06 I was early. Starter position.
GOOS STO 8/16/19 43.0 CALLS @1.60
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte My stop was hit at the open so my order to close put side filled on the little spike up we just had.
BTC $SPX Aug 14th 2865/2845 put spreads for 3.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
Also, working to close the Aug 16th 2775/2750 put spreads which were sold Monday in a condor. Should have closed yesterday except for deer-in-headlights syndrome.
SHOP
STO August 23, 340 puts @ 3.72
Leveraged ETFs
Many of us have been trading these to the short side for a long time, but for anyone who needs a refresher, here is a good summary on the pitfalls of being long these 2x and 3x products for any length of time beyond really short term. They can be supercharged if they’re going straight up for example, but in volatile environments they can grind you out.
https://www.proshares.com/funds/performance/the_universal_effects_of_compounding.html
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.76%, SPX 2923
#ironbutterfly UVXY #tastytradefollow Sold Sept….
#ironbutterfly UVXY
#tastytradefollow Sold Sept. 20, 20/32/32/38 for 6.23, profitable above 25.75, UVXY currently at 32.50.
TLRY trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly for 2.95. Risking 1.00 to make 2.95. This has a decent chance of max loss, but the R/R make it worth the shot. Also, three days for it to return to the middle if it moves far tonight.
#earnings #closing BABA May 15,…
#earnings #closing BABA
May 15, I sold a 160/165 put ratio spread with BABA flirting with 180. BABA then flirted with 149. May 31 I started the adjustments, sold a call, ending with an inverted 160 call/175 put strangle. I closed it today with earnings around the corner, making $93, whew.
The next problem is ROKU…
TLRY earnings analysis
#Earnings $TLRY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 4 quarters, which represent its entire history of earnings reports.
May 14, 2019 AC +0.32%
March 18, 2019 AC -3.39%
Nov. 13, 2018 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 AC +20.64% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.15%
Bias 2.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 43.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.02 to 47.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.50 to 46.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 34.12 to 51.88
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 39.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER strangle stopped
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Aug 30th 37 put for 1.50. The 37/43.5 strangles sold for 1.08 on Friday.
Nice thing about these is how small the loss is if your strike is breached. I will allow the call to close for .05.
I will give it a day or two before selling a new one.
NVDA
#CoveredCalls – Not really an earnings trade but taking advantage of the big premium. Of course sold 30 seconds too early.
Sold NVDA AUG 16 2019 150.0 Call @ 7.25
Headline sensitive, anyone?
BREAKING: Stocks jump to session highs, Apple surges more than 4.5% after USTR removes items from China tariff list, delays some others including those on cell phones and laptops https://t.co/4gGcxyFOnV pic.twitter.com/AMmid6LZJY
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 13, 2019
TNA
#CoveredCalls – Out all day yesterday but had one fill.
Bought to Close TNA AUG 16 2019 59.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 2.70)
Today selling aggressively at the open:
Sold TNA AUG 23 2019 52.0 Calls @ 2.85
Of course 20 seconds after the sale the China announcement (rumor) comes out. Can’t believe people actually believe anything’s going to happen over there.
Taking a flyer. Earnings this…
Taking a flyer. Earnings this week. Not holding. A trade for a day or two. 1/2 position.
GGAL BTO STOCK @17.46 Tight grip.
SPX
Expiring SPX 8/12/2019 2845/2860/2970/2985 #IC. Was STO 8/9 @0.95.
Market
Not much of a rally at the close. It could get ugly tomorrow.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th (Friday PM) 2750/2775-2950/2975 condors for 3.45, IV 22.57%, SPX 2880.
Crazy as a Loon, or…
Crazy as a Loon, or Goose, Honk, honk. ;>)
GGAL STO 8/16/19 20.0 CALLS @.55 Stock is down over 20.0 points. Expires Friday. Delta .32, reasonable risk reward. ;>)
Lightening a bit on DRIP
I put this on last week, taking it off for 50% of the profit, Still have quite a bit of short call exposure. Bought $DRIP 9/20 164 call @ 4.50. Sold for 9.00.
A TRADE:
ARWR BTO STOCK @29.40
PYX
#CoveredCalls
$PYX STO Sep20 15 Covered Calls @ 1.00
TRADES:
YETI STO 8/16/19 30.0 CALLS @.55
STNE STO 8/16/19 36.0 CALLS @1.10
A TRADE:
STNE BTO STOCK @34.55
INTC puts
#PieTrades Sold to Open $INTC Sept 6th 46 puts for 1.50.
Since my on-going favorite $T is not near 52-week lows, I’ve switched to $KHC and INTC for my PieTrades.
YELP closed
#Earnings Sold to close $YELP 34.5 calls for 3.00 average price. Got a couple sold for a small profit this morning, but made the mistake of waiting for it to go higher and it collapsed instead. These are usually winners, but pretty tough to manage. I think I need to try trailing stops.
#LongStrangles bought yesterday for 4.23. This loss and the UBER win cancel each other out.
AMD SPX
STO $AMD Sept 20 2019 34 puts @2.23. Was ATM when sold. Cash Secured. Willing to own the stock.
Expiring $SPX 2850/2865//2965/2980 #IC. Was STO @1.05 yesterday following Jeff.
Have rolled pretty much everything else out and or up this week. Sorry haven’t posted all of the trades. Finding that some have turned out to be unneeded, as things generally recovered. I need to be more patient.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2840/2860-2970/2990 condors for 1.10. IV: 11.71%, SPX 2929
Expiring today: Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.35
UBER strangles
#Earnings #PerpetualRollingStrangles
Since today’s 39.5/45.5 earnings strangle look to be expiring worthless, I’m resuming what worked for me for a couple months after my earnings losing trade in May:
Sold $UBER Aug 30th 37/43.5 strangles for 1.08
A TRADE:
OSTK STO 8/16/19 22.5 PUTS @.65
LNG
Converted short puts that are way ITM to #fuzzy to the 65/65/61 put strikes. Cost basis 9.39 and 8.96 and will sell weeklies until 2021.
Only had 2 contracts but this allowed me to increase to 7 contracts so a lot more weekly selling power/income.
We ran an experiment with XBI from June 21 on strictly weekly sales at the 80/85 strikes. 60% ROI since then or 520% annualized returns which is a lot more than we expected. Will keep it running and see how it works out longer term. I would expect less going forward but interesting that certain tickers trade LEAPs better than others.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/12/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=12&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#shortputs NKTR I unfortunately own…
#shortputs NKTR
I unfortunately own 110 shares of NKTR, 100 assigned at 60, cost basis is 48. NKTR is down 32% today to 20 after earnings, sure wish I would have had disaster protection. Sold an Aug. 16, 20 put for 1.00, going to be in this one awhile.
PYX
#CoveredCalls
BTC Aug 16 15 cc @ .10, STO on July 22 @ 1.42. Off to the dispensary. Thanks, @honkhonk81
