#earnings #jadelizard TIF #shortstrangles ADSK
TIF sold Sept. 20, 75/84/85 for 1.58.
ADSK sold Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 2.44
Thanks for the data Jeff.
Recent Updates Page 254
TRADES:
PLAN BTO STOCK @54.99 & 56.40
OSTK STO 8/30/19 19.0 CALLS @.50
TIF earnings analysis
#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2019 BO +2.59%
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 1.15%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.66 to 91.34
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 79.99 to 90.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 65.21 to 104.79
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 74.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADSK earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Buggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC +8.11%
Avg (+ or -) 8.30%
Bias 2.81%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 137.13 to 162.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.54 to 162.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 126.23 to 173.78
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 172.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for 3.00. IV 21.3%, SPX 2867.
Annualized returns?
How the heck are they calculated on a put sale? Since I’m really bored today I tried to put this in writing. I’m not the greatest math guy out there so absolutely looking for corrections and errors here.
This assumes 100 percent cash secured required like in a typical tax deferred retirement account.
————————————————————————————–
Calculating Annualized Returns On A Put Sale
(Strike Price x 100) – Premium Received = Margin Required
then:
Premium Received / Margin Required = Actual Return
then:
365 / Days in Position = Possible Trades Per year
then:
Possible Trades Per Year x Actual Return = Annualized Return
EWZ example:
3600 – 105 = 3495 (margin required)
then:
105 / 3495 = .0300429 (return for 53 day trade)
then:
365 / 53 = 6.8867924 (possible trades per year)
then:
.0300429 x 6.8867924 = .2068992 (annualized return)
20.7 annualized rounded
#earnings #closing CRM August 22,…
SPX
BTC $SPX 2940/2950 8/30 #BeCS @.90. Basis was $2.00 after a couple of rolls. Glad to have the buying power back.
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Starter position…
Sold EWZ OCT 18 2019 36.0 Put @ 1.05
20.7% annualized if held to expiration…
#ironcondor AAPL Sold Oct. 18,…
#ironcondor AAPL
Sold Oct. 18, 180/190/220/230 for 3.76
#earnings MOMO Jeff do you…
#earnings MOMO
Jeff do you have MOMO info? Thank you
HD – Close
BTC $HD 1.925 Puts @0.4 – was the put side of a #jadelizard #earnings trade which was STO @1.84 on 8/19/2019.
SPX 1-dte remove risk
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2755 put for .05. Don’t trust downside… just a tweet or Chinese government statement away from 100-pt drop!
2735/2755-2915/2935 condors sold for 1.30 on Friday.
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Another round…
Bought to Close WYNN AUG 30 2019 115.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.54)
Sold WYNN SEP 13 2019 110.0 Call @ 2.49
#shortputs TRTN Sold Sept. 20,…
#shortputs TRTN
Sold Sept. 20, 30 put for .90
SPX
Rolled 8/23/2019 $SPX 2935/2945 #BuCS for 8/30 same strikes +@0.60. Jumped too soon, but wasn’t sure where things were going this morning, and didn’t want to be caught ITM. Have been kicking this can down the road for a while. $2.00 basis after today’s roll, and mark closed at $1.075. Could/should have waited until after lunch, and then just let it expire.
Sold today & Expiring $SPX 8/23/2019 2880/2895 #BuCS @1.10.
Hoping for a quiet news weekend and some recovery next week. Not holding my breath though.
Downside Warning again
#VIXindicator This is one of the more whipsaw-y corrections I can remember. Today was our fifth warning. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but betting on that after the Aug 14th warning got me ripped up as the bounce was strong and protracted. (arrows represent the 4 Downside Warnings)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte. The market was so volatile before the close I waited until after the close to sell this.
Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2735/2755-2915/2935 condors for 1.30. IV 17.82%, SPX closed at 2848.
Rough week
Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.
Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62
Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.
Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday
CRM
Got out of my 125/165 spread for an .05 profit for September 20 expiration. I think the charts look really ugly.
INTC closed
#PieTrades. Another one I’m closing with only minor loss, as I don’t want to deal with ITM naked puts or stock holdings in this market.
BTC $INTC Sep 6th 46 puts for 1.61. Sold for 1.49 on Aug 12th.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one…
Sold UVXY OCT 18 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.25
KHC puts & stock closed
#PieTrades BTC $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.45.
That is only a third of my position; the other third was assigned. I was set to allow all of it to be assigned, but rather not carry burden of stock. So also unloaded the stock. Since I sold the puts for 1.23 on Aug 8th, this is closing at almost breakeven.
Sold to close $KHC stock for 25.58. Cost basis 25.67.
ISRG
#JadeLizard – Out a couple weeks for another try. Selling put side at the expected move.
Sold ISRG SEP 6 2019 465.0/495.0/500.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.50
SPX smackdown
#SPX1dte. Didn’t follow my rules rigidly enough and waited too long to close these. May mean I got out near the bottom rather than when stops were first hit, when I could have gotten out when SPX was around 2888.
BTC $SPX Aug 23rd 2860/2840 put spreads for 5.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
BTC $SPX Aug 26th 2845/2820 put spreads for 6.75. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15
I went past my stops on Wednesday on the up side, when SPX just couldn’t get any higher after briefly touching 2930. But the call side premium is much lower when almost ATM on expiration day than put side is, so it’s less risky. That one expired worthless. This one may, too, but after missing fills on every bounce before this, I couldn’t risk another tweet-driven violent drop.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/26/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=26&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
ISRG TNA
#JadeLizards #CoveredCalls – Sometimes I wish our fearless leader would put down the twitter machine for awhile. The timing of the tweet earlier cost me at least 2 grand on these positions. It really is a strange world we trade in these days. Booking and rolling…
Bought to Close ISRG AUG 23 2019 495.0/500.0/505.0 Jade Lizard @ 7.90 (sold for 11.95)
Rolled TNA AUG 23 2019 52.0 Calls to AUG 30 2019 53.5 Calls @ .10 credit
INTU closing
#Earnings It would have been a good exit right at the open, but now we’re getting a second shot as price retreats.
Sold to close in phases: .90, 1.20, then when I realized it could drop, I waited for 2.20 on the most recent batch. Now watching to see how much lower it will go for my final lots, driving the premium higher as it gets closer to flat-on-day.
#DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for 1.69.
TNDM Short Puts
#shortputs
$TNDM STO 8/30 67 puts at 1.60
Close ISRG Jade Lizard / Close OKTA Puts
#jadelizard
$ISRG BTC 8/23 500/505/485 jade lizard for 1.60. STO at 5.67. Thank you @fuzzballl
#shortputs
$OKTA BTC 8/23 135 put at .40. STO 8/14 at 5.60
SPLK
Non-earnings #JadeLizards – Good premium so giving it a short term shot…
Sold SPLK SEP 13 2019 116.0/124.0/127.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.25
SPLK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Taking this off on the bounce for a small gain. Great premium so looking to re-establish a non-earnings Jade lizard now…
Bought to Close SPLK AUG 23 2019 122.0/131.0/134.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.60 (sold for 3.31)
#closing TSLA Finally May 10,…
#closing TSLA Finally
May 10, sold a June 21, 190/280 strangle. Through numerous adjustments it ended up as a Sept. 20, 185/200 inverted strangle. I took in $4,163 in premium. Bought today for $4,143, freeing up about 8k in margin, whew.
#earnings #closing GPS Bought 17/18…
Consent de’CREE
#Earnings. I must consent that this trade failed.
Paid .01 to close $CREE 58.5 Aug23/Aug30 put calendar. Leaving call side to expire, and be a lottery ticket for next week. #DoubleCalendar bought Tuesday for .67.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 23rd 2840/2860-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.95%, SPX 2924.
GPS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GPS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 30, 2019 AC -9.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +4.66%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -8.60%
May 24, 2018 AC -14.56%
March 1, 2018 AC +7.82%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +6.98%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC -0.13%
May 18, 2017 AC -3.92%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +3.04%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC -16.60% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 18, 2016 AC +3.90%
Avg (+ or -) 7.98%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 17.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 15.54 to 19.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 16.33 to 19.17
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.6%): 14.80 to 20.70
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 20.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing SBUX July 25,…
INTU dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $INTU Aug23/Aug30 275 #DoubleCalendar for 1.69. Pretty good range of profitability: 262 to 288, or 4.7% either way.
INTU earnings analysis
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC +6.70% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76%
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
Avg (+ or -) 3.71%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 275.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 260.65 to 289.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.81 to 285.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 256.41 to 293.59
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 264.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #shortstrangles CRM Sold Sept….
#earnings #shortstrangles CRM
Sold Sept. 20, 125/165 strangle for 1.38. Thank you for the data Jeff.
SPLK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Got rid of NVDA earlier today so looking for a replacement…
Sold SPLK AUG 23 2019 122.0/131.0/134.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.31
No upside risk with put sale just inside the expected move but right at the 200ma. Breakeven below that…
SPX dte Monday
#SPX1dte. Another condor, licking wound from smashed call spread this week. Sold a few minutes after release of FOMC minutes.
Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2820/2845-2975/3000 condors for 3.15.
#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN Plagiarizing…
#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN
Plagiarizing Sept. 20 expirations all 3.
QCOM #jadelizard 69/79/80 for 1.07
OXY #jadelizard 42.50/45/46 for 1.38
AMZN #callbutterfly 1925/1940/1940/1970 for .88
SPLK trade
#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias 2.25%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 129.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.69 to 139.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 118.84 to 139.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 105.92 to 152.08
Based on DOWN max only (-10.1%): 115.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
CRM earnings analysis (tomorrow)
#Earnings $CRM reports TOMORROW after the bell; by request I’m posting analysis today . Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 2.98%
Bias 1.44%%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.86 to 155.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 143.10 to 151.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 132.35 to 162.65
Based on DOWN max only (-4.4%): 141.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA
#JadeLizards – Played this over earnings out to September hoping for a down move since all the “expert” talking heads were saying how bad things were going to be. So, of course, stock is up 18 percent since the announcement. 🙂 🙂
Taking my small gain and heading on down the road…
Bought to Close NVDA SEP 20 2019 135.0/150.0/155.0 Jade Lizard @ 4.63 (sold for 6.00)
HD – Lizard Early close
BTC HD 215/217.5 9/20/2019 Call vertical @1.65. Doesn’t look like its getting better, so taking an early out before it goes to max loss (@2.5). Still holding the put side (192.5 strike) for the time being.
#earnings #closing TGT Bought Sept….
Late Day Trades
#earnings TGT sold jade lizard/iron condor, Sept. 20, 70/82/86.50/87.50 for 2.48
BIDU sold Oct. 18 strangle, 95/130 for 2.32
LLY bought 95/120 strangle for .67, sold July 29 for 1.04, slow moving earnings trade
CREE earnings analysis
#Earnings $CREE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +2.17%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.11%
Aug. 14, 2018 AC -7.77%
April 24, 2018 AC -0.27%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC +2.74%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +16.42% Biggest UP
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -3.56%
April 25, 2017 AC -11.07%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.18%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -11.07%
Aug. 16, 2016 AC -14.91% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 6.86%
Bias -1.25%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.27 to 63.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.49 to 62.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.4%): 48.89 to 68.11
Based on DOWN max only (-14.9%): 49.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
CREE calendar
#Earnings Kind of asleep at the wheel today, got to earnings very late. Buying a $CREE 58.5dub cal – will post details in a moment.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2840/2850-2945/2955 condors for .55. 10-wide, double sized. IV 14.15%, 2906.
Closed Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads of ra loss at 12.00. Sold for 5.00 last week. Let this run too long, but at least a pullback came today. A weakness in my strategy I must address.
POINT AND FIGURE CHART:
CSII BROKE A DOUBLE TOP WHEN IT BROKE 50.0, A BUY SIGNAL.
OSTK FORMED AND BROKE DOUBLE TOP TODAY, WHEN IT BROKE 20.0, LIKEWISE A BUY SIGNAL. I don’t like this stock though, and usually bet against it, but I don’t fight the CHARTS. I own some short 20.0 calls.
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK @39.22
ADDED CSII @50.26
LABU
#CoveredCalls – Selling another one pretty aggressively…
Bought to Close LABU AUG 23 2019 44.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 3.45)
Sold LABU SEP 20 2019 42.0 Call @ 2.50
#earnings partial #closing WMT August…
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Selling very aggressively to try to shake things up a little…
Bought to Close REGN AUG 23 2019 315.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 3.80)
Sold REGN SEP 06 2019 302.5 Call @ 4.90
Added, a little at a…
Added, a little at a time. 2nd buy today.
CSII BTO STOCK @50.24
#earnings #closing BIDU bought 85/125…
TRADES:
CSII BTO STOCK @49.61 Late post
YETI STO 8/30/19 29.0 CALLS @.55
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for 1.12
SPX Expiring / LULU
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 23rd 2815/2840-2980/3005 condors for 2.90. IV 16.68%, SPX 2926.
A TRADE:
STNE STO 9/20/19 30.0 PUTS @.90
#earnings BIDU Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings BIDU
Sold Sept. 20, 85/125 strangle for 1.70. Thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
ARWR BTO STOCK @32.11 Late post.
BYND STO 8/23/19 BeCS 150/160 CALLS @1.40
GGAL BTO STOCK @15.70
AUDC STC STOCK @17.69 Made .49
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $DROP Sept 20th 175 call for 2.00. Sold for 6.70 last Wednesday. Take a cue from Ramie and closing these far OTM calls when I can to help chip away at the burden of short 115 calls that have gone ITM a few times.
#earnings #closing QCOM July 31,…
#earnings HD Sold Sept. 20…
#earnings HD
Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard 192.50/210/212.50 for 2.77. Thanks for the data Jeff.
HD earnings analysis
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
Avg (+ or -) 1.09%
Bias -0.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 215.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.74 to 209.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 201.51 to 212.49
Based on UP max only (1.6%): 210.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Opened 5 points above stop level, but was able to get out as it faded.
BTC $SPX Aug 19th 2930/2950 for 2.00. Condors sold Friday for 1.15
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 6.14%
Bias -1.85%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 103.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 92.21 to 113.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.68 to 109.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 85.99 to 120.01
Based on UP max only (+9.5%): 112.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
STNE STO 9/20/19 35.0 CALLS @1.24
STNE STO 9/20/19 30.0 PUTS @.90
